On the existence of the ex post symmetric random entry model

This paper studies symmetry among countably infinitely many agents who randomly enter into a stochastic process, one for each period. Upon entry, they observe only the current period signal and try to draw inference about the underlying state governing the stochastic process. We show that there exist random entry models under which agents are ex post symmetric. That is, all agents have identical posterior belief about the underlying states, although they are not ex ante symmetric. The form of the posterior belief is uniquely pinned down by ex post symmetry and a stationarity condition. Our results provide a common prior foundation for the model studied in Liu and Skrzypacz (2014).     

Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on Turkish bilateral trade balances

Previous studies that have assessed the short-run and the long-run effects of exchange rate changes on Turkey’s trade balance with its major partners relied upon a linear adjustment process that could not find much support for favorable effects of exchange rate changes. In this paper, once we separate real appreciations from real depreciations via the partial sum concept and introduce nonlinearity into the estimation and testing procedure, we show that the effects of exchange rate changes are asymmetric. More precisely, while lira appreciation does not have any significant effects on Turkey’s bilateral trade balances, lira depreciation has significantly favorable effects on Turkey’s trade balance with its European partners (France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, and Great Britain).     

Factors of trade in Europe

We analyze how a set of determinants affect trade among European countries over the period 1992–2008. The factors encompass variables from the areas of geography, culture, institutions, infrastructure, and trade direction. Trade is analyzed for four types of goods: primary goods, parts and components, capital goods, and consumer goods. For each type of good we also distinguish its definition in terms of flows, intensive margin, and extensive margin. Methodologically, we first derive country-pair fixed effects over all possible pairs of export–import partners, and in the second stage we relate fixed effects with a set of influential factors. We show (i) the intuitive and varying effects of geographical, cultural, and institutional factors; (ii) the beneficial effects of soft and hard infrastructure; and (iii) the key importance of trade between old and new EU members.     

On the non-emptiness of the Mas-Colell bargaining set

We introduce an extension of the Mas-Colell bargaining set and construct, by an elaboration on a voting paradox, a superadditive four-person non-transferable utility game whose extended bargaining set is empty. It is shown that this extension constitutes an upper hemicontinuous correspondence. We conclude that the Mas-Colell bargaining set of a non-levelled superadditive NTU game may be empty.     

Exchange rate sensitivity of US bilateral trade flows

The traditional way of assessing the impact of currency depreciation on the trade balance has been to estimate the elasticity of trade volume to relative prices. To this end, most previous studies used aggregate trade data. To avoid aggregation biases potentially hidden in aggregate data, recent studies have relied on bilateral trade data. Since import and export price data is not available on bilateral level, this study proposes an alternative way of assessing the impact of currency depreciation on bilateral trade flows. The models are applied between the US and her 19 industrial trading partners using recent advances in time-series modeling.     

On the possibility of positive rent gradients

The negative rent gradient is a virtually unanimous prediction of urban residential land rent models and a condition of locational equilibrium. This is the result of treating urban rents solely as location rents, where location is defined in terms of accessibility to the CBD. Urban rent may include another component, “externality rent,” which could, for instance, reflect neighborhood externalities in the form of area amenities and pleasant living environments. Introducing externality rent as an element in urban rent makes a positive rent gradient possible, provided that the externality is internalized in the land market. Conditions for a positive rent gradient are determined for both the identical and unequal incomes cases.     

Efficiency measurements and the gains from trade under transaction costs

The paper investigates the measurement of economic efficiency under transaction costs in a second best world. New measurements of technical efficiency, allocative efficiency, and price efficiency are proposed. They have three desirable properties. First, they measure efficiency loss in monetary units. Second, they are additive and can be conveniently summed into an overall efficiency measure. Third, they allow for transaction costs and their effects on prices and trade incentives. The paper investigates the welfare effects of technology choice, government pricing and trade policy, and market imperfections on efficiency. It provides new insights on the measurement of benefits from trade liberalization when trade affects not only price efficiency, but also technical and allocative efficiency.

A Coincident Index for the State of the Economy*

In this paper, a methodology is developed for designing a coincident index for the so‐called state of the economy. Based on this index, statistical tests are deduced for checking structural changes in the economy and consistency of pre‐established economic goals for the short term with past and present observed information. The approach can also be considered as a new solution for the ex post (benchmarking, disaggregation) and ex ante (extrapolation) prediction problems.     

关于外贸代理制若干问题的探讨

由于我国外贸代理制本身所具有的特点,再加上有关法律、法规不完善、不明确等方面的原因,外贸代理实务中产生了诸多法律问题,文中就这方面的问题作出了一些探讨。     

On the possibility and optimality of positive rent gradients

The assertion that externalities from low density can create positive residential rent gradients is examined in several cases: optimal externality internalization (zoning), excessive and insufficient restriction, and no internalization. In all cases positive rent gradients are unlikely (i.e., require land to be an inferior good), unstable, or impossible. In addition, easily interpretable welfare conditions are found as a result of consumer and social welfare maximization. The Alonso-Muth-Mills model is found to be quite robust.     

The effects of trade exposure on technical efficiency: New evidence from the Turkish rubber industry

When a country's foreign trade regime becomes more open, international trade theory suggests that domestic firms face more competition and start to operate more efficiently to reduce their production costs. This proposition is empirically examined by using plant-level data from the Turkish rubber industry during a period of substantial trade liberalization: technical efficiency levels improved significantly when Turkey's trade regime shifted from a restrictive to a more liberalized one. Incumbent plants located closer to international markets improved technical efficiency more than the other plants. These findings suggest that the improvement in technical efficiency was due largely to trade liberalization.     

论环境与国际贸易问题及我国贸易政策的调整

环境与国际贸易是经济发展中一对相互矛盾相互促进的两个方面,而近几年来由环境带来的环境壁垒却对国际贸易产生了很大影响。为使两者协调发展,各国的贸易政策必须及时进行调整。文中分析了环境与贸易的关系和环境对贸易的影响,以及国际贸易中所产生的环境壁垒的深层根源。在此基础上,对我国的对外贸易政策提出切实的建议。     

论企业中职务消费纳入薪酬体系的合理性

职务消费过度、过滥问题十分严重。现行职务消费制度的不合理引发了一系列社会和经济问题,改革刻不容缓。将职务消费纳入企业薪酬体系是根本的改革途径,职务消费和薪酬体系其他部分本质上的一致性使它们能够组成一个和谐的整体。改革的基本思路是缘于“总额限定、节余归己”的激励性质的制度安排。可以从五个方面入手进行全面的改革尝试,即:对职务消费项目进行归类管理、严格预算和总额限定制度、授权管理、完善监督约束机制、建立健康的企业文化。     

酒店管理专业学生在企业顶岗实习离职问题探究

工学结合现在已经成为了高职院校专业教学的重要内容,也逐渐成为职业院校学生就业的主要模式。作为在当前已经普遍推行的一项制度,工学结合在很多方面都起到了积极作用。然而在目前的工学结合顶岗实习中,还存在着一系列问题,特别是学生的离职问题,本文将针对造成这一问题的原因进行探讨。     

On the impossibility of insider trade in rational expectations equilibria

Existing no trade results are based on the common prior assumption (CPA). This paper identifies a strictly weaker condition than the CPA under which speculative trade is impossible in a rational expectations equilibrium (REE). As our main finding, we demonstrate the impossibility of speculative asset trade in an REE whenever an insider is involved who knows the asset's true value. To model insider trade as an equilibrium phenomenon an alternative equilibrium concept than the REE is thus required.     

On the Functional Form of an Efficiency Index

An input efficiency index gives a numeric assessment of the degree to which a given input combination falls short of being efficient in producing a fixed amount of output. This paper presents a system of axioms which characterise a certain family of efficiency indices containing the well-known Farrell and Färe-Lovell indices. The family of indices satisfying the axioms can be obtained by minimizing a suitable function, called a performance evaluation, and different choices of performance evaluation will result in different indices.     

论合同后评估在施工造价管控中的作用

文章通过对合同后评估的评估原则、评估程序、依据、办法以及后评估的具体工作进行探讨,揭示合同后评估在施工造价管控中的作用。     

On efficient estimation of the ordered response model

In this paper, we derive efficiency bounds for the ordered response model when the distribution of the errors is unknown. Furthermore, we develop an estimator that is efficient under suitable conditions. Interestingly, neither the bounds nor the estimator are trivial extensions of what has been proposed in the literature for the binary response model. The estimator is composed of quadratic B-splines, and estimation is performed by the method of sieves. In addition, the estimator of the distribution function is restricted to be a proper distribution function. An empirical example on the effect of fees on attendance rates at universities and community colleges is also included; we get substantively different results by relaxing the assumption that the distribution of the errors is normal.     

On the possibility of extinction in a class of Markov processes in economics

We analyze the possibility of eventual extinction of a replenishable economic asset (natural resource or capital) whose stocks follow a stationary Markov process with zero as an absorbing state. In particular, the stochastic process of stocks is determined by a given sequence of i.i.d. random variables with bounded support and a positive-valued transition function that maps the current level of the stock and the current realization of the random variable to the next period’s stock. Such processes arise naturally in stochastic dynamic models of economic growth and exploitation of natural resources. Under a minimal set of assumptions, the paper identifies conditions for almost sure extinction from all initial stocks as well as conditions under which the stocks enter every neighborhood of zero infinitely often almost surely. Our results emphasize the crucial role played by the nature of the transition function under the worst realization of the random shock and clarifies the role of the “average” rate of growth in the context of extinction.