Does foreign direct investment cause long run economic growth? Evidence from the Latin American and the Caribbean countries

The empirical evidence about the temporal precedence between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in open developing economies is mixed. In this research effort, we explored the FDI-growth nexus for 16 developing countries of Latin American and the Caribbean countries during the last three decades, a period in which many of these countries introduced various economic and financial reforms. As a departure from many previous studies, the current analysis uses the Granger noncausality test procedure recently developed by Toda and Yamamoto (J Econ 66:225–250, 1995), and Dolado and Lutkepohl (Econ Rev 15:369–386, 1996)–TYDL. Our results suggest that the null hypothesis that ‘FDI does not Granger cause economic growth’ is rejected for all countries except Dominican Republic, Trinidad and Tobago, and Jamaica. There is also evidence of unidirectional causality from growth to FDI for all countries except Bolivia, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Jamaica. We found bidirectional causality for Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela.     

Foreign Aid and HIV/AIDS in Latin America and the Caribbean: Should We Adjust the Degree of Response?

This paper estimates the effects of foreign aid on Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) prevalence in a sample of 27 Latin American and Caribbean countries during 1995–2013 and advocates for stronger sentinel surveillance to monitor the stability of the epidemic in the region. Surges in global HIV funding have improved access to health care and antiretroviral therapy, leading to gains in life expectancy. HIV is a prime cause of death and disability in resource-poor settings. It declines with more global funding for health, yet its pathway is random. The net impact of foreign aid on health is unknown due to poor surveillance. HIV’s unsystematic nature requires better metrics arising from global aid data to calibrate the degree of response in the region. A dynamic panel-data model with robust standard errors was used to determine if changes in HIV were associated with changes in foreign aid for health in the sample but the positive association was not statistically significant. Better data from local epidemics is needed to reveal population- and group-specific trends.     

What Have Remittances Done to Development? Evidence from the Caribbean Community and Common Market

This paper analyzes the long-run impact of remittances on socio-economic development in the Caribbean Community and Common Market (CARICOM) between 1970 and 2013. We find that remittances have improved the health indicators, reducing infant and child mortality, and food deficit and improving life expectancy, and sanitation and water sources, especially in the rural areas. However, remittance inflows have no significant impact on education and communication infrastructure. Neither do they contribute to any demographic changes.     

On the Skepticism Regarding China''''s Economic Growth——Viewed from Improvement of China''''s Energy Utilization

Ⅰ.IntroductionChina has maintained a fairly high speed of growth in itseconomy since it introduced the policy of reform and open-ing up,generating worldwide attention and approval.Butthere is also a kind of skepticism,casting doubt on the per-formance and future growth of the Chinese economy,par-ticularly in regard to the belief that China's statistics arewatered.the main influential views published abroad claimthat:(1)the energy statistics are inconsistent with GDP growth     

A Note on the Labor Market Effects of Remittances in Latin American and Caribbean Countries: Do Thresholds Exist?

The labor market effects of remittances have long been examined in the empirical literature. To date, the results have been mixed: some authors observe a negative association between remittances and unemployment while others report that remittances increase unemployment. This study empirically examines the impact of remittances on unemployment using macroeconomic data for a sample of 18 Latin American and Caribbean countries. Specifically, the study tests whether there is a nonlinear relationship between the variables. Results suggest that when the remittance‐to‐GDP ratio is low, remittances have a positive and significant impact on unemployment. However, as they increase, remittances are negatively associated with unemployment. This suggests the possibility that estimations based on the assumption of a linear relationship between remittances and labor may mask the true relationship between the variables.     

Decomposing and Analysing the Determinants of Current Accounts’ Cyclicality: Evidence from the Euro Area

Open Economies Review - In this paper, we decompose the current account (CA) balance in 19 Euro area countries into cyclical and non-cyclical components. For the period 1999:Q1 to 2015:Q4, we...     

Deflation,Productivity Shocks and Gold: Evidence from the 1880–1914 Period

In this paper we examine the sources and impact of deflation on the growth experiences of the four dominant countries on the gold standard in the period 1880–1913: the United States, The United Kingdom, France and Germany. We distinguish between good deflation, (driven by positive aggregate supply shocks) and bad deflation (driven by aggregate demand shocks). We use an empirical Blanchard/Quah model which decomposes the behaviour of prices, output and the money stock into the impact of shocks such as a world price level shock, a domestic supply shock, and domestic demand shocks including a shock to the domestic gold stock. Our key finding is that the European economies were essentially classic in the sense that output was mainly supply driven and that money was neutral even when country specific gold stocks are included. In the United States, however, we observe both good and bad deflation.     

Unregulated and regulated free banking: Evidence from the case of Switzerland (1826–1907)

This paper provides a reassessment of the free-banking history of Switzerland, which included both a period of unfettered competition (1826–1881) and one of strong banknote regulation (1881–1907). Unfettered competition between note-issuing banks gave rise to a fragmented paper-money system, with limited liquidity banknotes. To increase confidence in these notes, the federal government introduced a minimum-reserve requirement and a mutual-conversion rule in 1881. Based on a theoretical model and new empirical evidence, this paper shows that this enhanced regulation came at a cost, as it led to the overissuing of banknotes and an inelastic paper-money supply.     

The effects of formal and informal child care on the Mother's labor supply—Evidence from urban China

The women's labor force participation rate in China has declined considerably during the last twenty years in urban China. Since the reforms started in the mid-1990s, publicly subsidized child care programs have decreased, and private care centers have increased. This might have increased the reliance of working mothers on informal child care and reduced their reliance on formal child care. Using post-reform data from the Project on Rural–Urban Migration in China (RUMiC) of 2008, I estimate the effects of formal and informal child care on the labor supply of mothers of young children. A recursive model with instrumental variables is employed to account for endogeneity. I find a positive and significant impact of informal child care in the form of grandchild care on the mother's labor force participation, while no significant effect of formal child care in the form of kindergartens or paid nannies. Considering recent tendencies in China to postpone retirement, one possible method to maintain mothers' presence in the labor market could be to reinforce the availability and affordability of formal child care.²³     

The Impact of Regulation on Utilities’ Investments: A Survey and New Evidence from the Energy Industry

Over the last 30 years, regulated sectors have undergone deep reforms in their institutional configuration, tools and goals. This paper reviews the impact of this evolution on energy firms’ investments. First, we survey the existing evidence on the effects of the presence of independent regulatory agencies on utilities’ investment rates in Europe in the MENA countries, and in Latin America, focussing on the role of de facto independence and the institutional framework. Second, we discuss the impact of incentive- versus rate-of-return regulation on firms’ incentives to invest and the interaction with firm private/public ownership. In this regard, we provide new econometric evidence of the recent developments of regulation, using a sample of European energy utilities tracked from 1997 to 2013. Our results confirm previous findings that investment is higher under incentive regulation than under rate of return regulation. However, differently from the earlier results, we find that investments seem to be driven more by the weighted average cost of capital than by the X-factor. The paper concludes reviewing recent evidence on service quality regulation on firm investment specifically on the impact of reward/penalty schemes on capital and operational expenditures.     

Onshore spot and offshore forward markets for RMB: Evidence from the “8.11” exchange rate regime reform

This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between the onshore spot market and offshore forward market for Chinese currency around the period of China's “8.11” exchange rate regime reform, one of the most important market-oriented reforms implemented on August 11, 2015. We compare return and volatility spillover effects between the two markets before and after the “8.11” reform. The empirical evidence shows that a remarkable change has occurred in both the return and volatility spillovers. Before the reform, return and volatility spillovers exist from the offshore forward market to the onshore spot market. After the reform, however, we observe an obvious reverse in the direction and an increase in the strength of the return and volatility spillover effects. These findings suggest the existence of cross-market information flows, a change in the direction and a strengthening of the dynamic relationship after the reform. We argue that the “8.11” reform serves as a milestone reflecting long-term underlying forces that increase the relative importance of the onshore market.     

New “useless education theory”: Highly educated parents' expectations for their children's education—Evidence from the one-child policy

Using data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) 2010 and a strictly implemented one-child policy as a quasi-experiment, this paper analyses the changes in parents' educational expectations of their children and the underlying mechanisms in a fuzzy regression discontinuity framework. It was found that one-child policy compliers have lower educational expectations for their children after acquiring an advanced education than those who did not. The finding remains valid after robustness analysis and placebo tests. Combined with an examination of the intergenerational effects of birth, this finding may be related to parents' assessment of and responses to educational returns and equality of educational opportunities. It was also found that parents with lower educational attainment in the high-income group have higher educational expectations than those with higher educational attainment, while for those with lower income, there is no significant difference between higher educational attainment and otherwise, which indirectly verifies the causal inference of this paper. The finding of this study explains the new “useless education theory” and provides a new perspective for understanding the intergenerational transmission of education.     

The Role of Property Rights in the Relationship between Capital Flows and Economic Growth in SSA: Do Natural Resources Endowment and Country Income Level Matter?

This paper studies the role played by the quality of property rights in the linkages of international capital flows into sub‐Saharan African (SSA) economies. Using panel data of 36 SSA countries over the period 1996–2015 and the ARDL procedure with the Pooled Mean Group regression method appropriate for non‐stationary panel data estimation, we account for the joint effects of property rights quality and openness to foreign capital flows on economic growth. We uncover the existence of a property rights quality threshold beyond which property rights either amplifies the spillovers effects or attenuates the negative effect of capital flows on economic growth. For instance, it takes a level of property rights of at least 60 to have a positive long‐term impact of capital flows on economic growth in natural resource‐poor African countries. The quality of property rights matters more to obtain spillover effects of capital flows on growth in natural resource‐poor countries than in their peer natural resource‐rich countries. Finally, with regard to the countries' income levels, capital flows have significant long‐term spillovers effects on economic growth in advanced African economies than in their low‐income peers.     

Good Care Practices Can Mitigate the Negative Effects of Poverty and Low Maternal Schooling on Children’s Nutritional Status: Evidence from Accra

This study uses data from a representative survey of households with preschoolers in Accra, Ghana to: (a) examine the importance of care practices for children’s height-for-age Z-scores (HAZ); and (b) identify subgroups of children for whom good maternal care practices may be particularly important. Good caregiving practices related to child feeding and use of preventive health services were a strong determinant of children’s HAZ, specially among children from the two lower income terciles and children whose mothers had less than secondary schooling. In this population, good care practices could compensate for the negative effects of poverty and low maternal schooling on children’s HAZ. Thus, effective targeting of specific education messages to improve child feeding practices and use of preventive health care could have a major impact on reducing childhood malnutrition in Accra.