Credit in Times of Stress: Lessons from Latin America during the Global Financial Crisis

The 2008–2009 global financial crisis disrupted the provision of credit in Latin America less than in previous crises. This paper tests whether specific characteristics at both the bank and country levels at the onset of the global crisis contributed to the behavior of real credit growth in this region during the crisis. As shown, financial soundness characteristics of Latin American banks, such as capitalization, liquidity, and bank efficiency in the pre‐crisis period, played a role in explaining the dynamics of real credit during the crisis. We also found that foreign banks and banks that had expanded credit growth more before the crisis were also those that cut credit the most. Among country‐specific characteristics, we found evidence that balance sheet measures such as the economy's overall currency mismatches and external debt ratios (measuring either total debt or short‐term debt) were key variables in explaining credit growth resilience.     

公允价值会计制度对金融稳定的影响——兼论美国金融危机的启示

文章从公允价值会计制度的两重功能--反映资产负债现有的公平交易价格和向投资者传递信号影响其行为出发,构建均衡模型,并利用美国市场的实证数据分析了公允价值会计制度的缺陷:内生的共振效应、加剧市场波动.在市场繁荣时,公允价值会计制度会促进资产价格的进一步上升,而在危机时期,公允价值会计制度与资本金监管要求共同作用所产生的共振效应会使危机进一步恶化.     

三次国际金融危机对中国的启示

20世纪以来全世界先后发生了1929—1933年金融危机、1997-1998年东南亚金融危机、2008年全球金融危机等三次具有代表性的金融危机。这三次国际金融危机既有相同点,也有许多不同之处,给予我们诸多启示。     

Applying the Lessons of Asia: The IMF's Crisis Management Strategy following the Global Financial Crisis

ABSTRACT

The paper reviews the International Monetary Fund's (IMF's) non-concessional lending programs following the global financial crisis, with a view to understanding how the IMF applied the lessons of the Asian crisis in designing its approach to crisis management. For this purpose, the paper focuses on the 2008 programs in Hungary, Iceland, Latvia and Ukraine – the first of its kind since the early 2000s – and compares them with the 1997 programs in Indonesia, Korea and Thailand. Our analysis finds the European programs better funded and their structural conditionality more focused. Other than these, the overall thrust of the programs was similar: fiscal and monetary tightening, coupled with banking reforms. The real difference was not so much about content but about philosophy. Relative to the Asian programs, the European programs were characterized by more emphasis on ownership, greater collaboration among stakeholders, more realistic assumptions and greater transparency about the risks and the logic of policy actions, and more built-in flexibility of targets and policy options. This approach to crisis management incorporated the changes that had been made since the Asian crisis in the IMF's policies and procedures to manage capital account crises more effectively.     

Meltdown Iceland: Lessons on the World Financial Crisis from a Small Bankrupt Island

The paper reports that no statistically significant empirical relationship can be shown between total bank credit and the US broad money supply in the period after 1995. It argues that the growing prevalence of non-bank deposits in the form of mutual money market funds and asset securitization are the main culprits for this result. Prior to financial liberalization, the connection between total bank credit and broad money supply was simple enough: new bank deposits were created when banks made loans and were extinguished when loans were paid back. In banks' consolidated balance sheet, total deposits made up total liabilities and were basically equal to the broad money supply. However, in the age of financial liberalization not all deposits bank loans created returned as deposits, whether in banks or non-banks, as deposits could be swapped for non-deposit liabilities without a corresponding draw down on the asset side. Moreover, loans could be extinguished in banks' balance sheets through asset securitization.     

信用风险、评级机构与金融危机的关系

在此次美国金融危机发生过程中,信用评级机构受到了各方的批评,各方对其在危机中的能力表现提出了质疑,其自身信用也受到极大的挑战。该文从信用风险与金融危机关系的视角出发,评述评级机构在防范信用风险中的作用,通过反思评级机构在此次金融危机中的表现,就我国如何规范、完善评级机构以及防范金融危机提出了建议。     

亚洲金融危机前后的韩国金融改革

文章对1997年亚洲金融危机前后的韩国金融改革作了总体上的回顾。20世纪60年代,韩国以官制金融为特征的金融制度极大地推动了经济发展。80年代,在经济全球化背景下,进行了放松金融管制、利率自由化、开放金融市场等一系列金融自由化改革。90年代,加快金融改革步伐但遭遇了金融危机。危机后,韩国采取了重组金融机构、建立存款保险制度、扩大直接融资、开放金融市场等金融重建措施,走出了危机。     

美国金融危机的“腐蚀性”及启示

美国金融危机"腐蚀性"特点主要表现为:危机中受影响的金融机构量大且种类多样,危机的发展是持续渐进的.基于此.本文分析了该特点产生的原因.首先,抵押贷款证券化机制扩大了陷入危机的金融机构范围;其次.证券化产品的复杂性使其风险的暴露是渐进的;最后,美国金融体系运行的杠杆化造成了金融危机的持续演进.     

分配差距扩大、信用扩张和金融危机——关于美国次贷危机的理论思考

本文以美国次贷危机为背景,基于一个在同代人之间存在分配差距的交叠世代模型,分析了分配差距扩大导致的内生信用扩张和利率、房价、杠杆率等的变化。与次贷危机前的典型特征相符,我们发现,在外生信用扩张因素既定的情况下,收入分配差距扩大也会在居民部门内部推动金融资产向收入中高端集中和金融负债向收入中低端集中,从而形成内生性的信用扩张。在这一过程中,储蓄率和利率下降,房价上涨,并且如果只观察居民部门整体的资产负债质量,会大大低估实际存在的金融风险,因为收入中低端的杠杆率,尤其是违约概率,显著大于整体平均水平。对于我国当前房价的过快上涨和居民部门杠杆率的过快上升,我们需要保持高度警惕,需要监控负债在不同收入水平家庭间的分布。     

货币政策方略：来自金融危机的教训

直至2007年8月．货币经济学理论和实证研究上的进展已经使经济学家和政策制定者认定当前存在着一门明晰的“货币政策科学”。中央银行就货币政策方略的绝大部分要素达成了一致,同时货币政策被认为在OECD国家取得了巨大成功：后者不仅保持着低通膨,而且通胀波动率也很低。此外,这些国家的产出波动率也下降了,而自20世纪80年代初以来的时期更被冠以“大缓和（Great Moderation）”的称号。货币经济学家和中央银行家都自我感觉相当良好。     

危机研究的经验

公共危机管理正改变其作为政府“临时工作”的角色定位,成为政府日常事务工作的一部分。由于不同学科对公共危机管理的研究路径不一,对危机和危机管理的定义也有差别,但无论怎样定义,危机管理本质上依然是个政治问题,需要国内外合作才能完成。     

全球次级债危机对我国债券市场信用评级的启示

由于现代金融体系的全球化,以及参与美国次级债券的投资机构众多,美国次级债危机很快在全球蔓延开来,逐步演变成了一场全球信用危机,而一贯被人们寄予厚望的信用评级机构在这场愈演愈烈的危机中却备受指责.这场全球性的信用危机为我国债券市场信用评级制度的完善提供了有益的启示.     

金融危机背景下信用违约互换道德风险研究

2007年爆发的金融危机中,信用违约互换蕴含的道德风险使其成为危机发生和发展的助推器。本文通过构建信用违约互换交易的合约设计模型,研究该产品的作用以及控制其道德风险的最优合约设计。分析发现:交易双方资金成本差异决定了信用违约互换具有优化配置信用风险、提高银行收益和拓宽市场主体投资渠道等有利作用,但信用违约互换交易会降低银行监督信贷资产的努力水平,导致信用风险积聚和增加。通过引入不完全保护机制,我们给出了有效控制信用违约互换道德风险的最优合约。本文的研究结论为防范和控制信用衍生品隐含的道德风险提供了借鉴,有利于促进其发挥分散信用风险等积极作用。     

金融自由化、危机和救助:拉美和东亚对中国的启示

拉美和东亚国家多数存在金融压制问题,在发展过程中,这些国家普遍开始进行金融自由化,拉美和东亚各国的金融自由化指数显示了各地自由化的不同特点。自由化可能造成新型的双重危机,即银行危机和货币危机同时或相继发生,危机发生后,政府有多种援助手段可用,但与之相关的各种成本很高,危机的影响也将持续数年,中国应吸取拉美和东亚邻国在金融自由化和危机处置方面的经验教训,从而在金融自由化过程中保持稳定。     

金融危机背景下中国消费信贷政策探讨

2007年美国爆发的次贷危机最终导致了全球性的金融危机,其根源在于美国社会的过度负债消费。受金融危机的影响,中国出口受阻、产能过剩凸显,为防止经济下滑,政府出台了扩大内需的政策,而追加投资在一定程度上又加剧了产能过剩,不利于经济结构的调整和长远发展,因此应大力促进居民消费,其有效方式是发展消费信贷。消费信贷促成了美国社会的高消费,曾极大地拉动美国经济增长,但过度负债最终拖累了美国经济。因此,中国应该吸取美国的经验和教训,结合中国的国情,合理发展消费信贷,鼓励和提倡适度负债。     

Pegging Out: Lessons from the Czech Exchange Rate Crisis

In May 1997 the Czech Republic abandoned its exchange rate peg, the centerpiece of macroeconomic strategy since 1991. This paper examines the usefulness of theories of speculative attack in interpreting the crisis. Significantly, after the crisis subsided, competitiveness returned to its earlier level. One interpretation is that the koruna was the innocent victim of turmoil in Asia. This neglects the trend deterioration of competitiveness prior to the crisis. Hence, the crisis provoked a much-needed adjustment in fiscal policy, which altered the monetary-fiscal mix and consequent equilibrium exchange rate. Sterilization during 1994–96 delayed adjustment. Earlier abandonment of the parity would have helped only if it had also induced the required fiscal adjustment.J. Comp. Econom.,December 1998, 26(4), pp. 669–690. Birkbeck College & CEPR, 7 Gresse Street, London W1P 2LL, United Kingdom.     

Lessons from the 1997 and the 2008 Crises in Korea

The Korean economy was hit harder than anticipated by the global financial crisis. In the first phase, large capital outflows led to a severe liquidity strain in the foreign exchange market, resulting in a rapid depreciation of the exchange rate. Then, in the second phase, the contraction of global demand led to a collapse of exports and a sharp decline in economic activity, raising concerns about a full‐fledged financial crisis in Korea. This paper describes how the global financial crisis spilled over into the Korean economy and how the Korean government responded to the financial turmoil. It also provides the background and rationale for the Korean government's decisions to adopt specific policy measures. Based on Korean experiences during the 1997 and the 2008 crises, this paper documents the lessons learned from the past two crises and identifies several important policy issues.