基于均衡分析的我国房地产泡沫度分析

基于均衡分析得到一个检测房地产价格合理性的理论参照,通过将计算出的房地产泡沫度在时间上做纵向对比以及在不同地区间做横向对比,考察现阶段我国房地产泡沫的严重程度。结果表明,现阶段我国大陆总体上的房地产泡沫度与房地产过热阶段的1993年相差不大,与楼市高峰时的香港有不小的差距;我国内地省市的房地产泡沫度一般较低,部分沿海地区接近或超过了楼市高峰时的香港。     

房地产价格指数周期的宏观分析

本文建立了中国房地产价格指数的投机度模型,区分了房地产价格增长的价值和泡沫成分,动态刻画了一个由基本面增长、泡沫推动及价格的价值回归等因素共同作用形成的完整房地产价格周期,定量地研究了现阶段我国房地产的泡沫度及其发展趋势,得出了我国房地产市场泡沫成分对货币流动性高度敏感的结论。通过稳定性测试,我们定量分析了货币政策回归稳健对房地产市场可能带来的冲击,并对地方政府、商业银行及监管部门提供了建议。     

Mortgage Put Options and Real Estate Markets

In this paper we offer direct evidence that financial intermediation does impact underlying asset markets. We develop a specific observable symptom of a banking system that underprices the put option imbedded in non-recourse asset-backed lending. Using a dataset for 19 countries and over 500 real estate investment trusts, we find that, following a negative demand shock, the “underpricing” economies experience far deeper asset market crashes than economies in which the put option is correctly priced.

物业税开征的先决条件之一:房地产产权制度的改革与完善

明晰的房地产产权关系以及相应完善的管理制度是开征物业税不可缺少的重要条件。本文探讨了物业税与房地产产权管理的一般关系,针对我国房地产产权管理现状存在的问题,提出了开展房地产产权登记普查、逐步统一城乡房地产产权管理制度等政策建议。     

日本房地产税制改革及其启示

本文认为,我国目前房地产市场环境与日本20世纪七八十年代面临的环境有颇多相似之处,因而日本房地产税制改革的经验对我国有很好的启示作用。第二次世界大战后日本房地产税收政策先后进行了7次较大的改革和调整,文章对此进行了较详细的梳理,并评价了其政策效应,以期为我国充分运用财税政策,加大房地产市场宏观调控力度,提供借鉴和思路。     

境外房地产保有课税的税基评估比较

物业税属于房地产保有阶段课征的税种。本文对境外房地产保有阶段税制及税基进行了比较,分析了物业税税基评估的特点和种类,并对房地产税基评估中遇到的问题进行了梳理,提出了我国未来物业税税基评估可能遇到的问题的解决途径。     

论我国房地产税制改革的目标与途径

随着房地产市场的发展,尤其是房地产价格的不断上涨,期望通过税收工具抑制房价的呼声越来越强烈。本文认为,房地产价格的上涨是一种长期趋势,税收对房地产市场的调控应注意把握调控时机和调控力度。从税收政策目标看,不应以打压房价为目标,而应以促进房地产市场健康、有序发展为目标,并应在课税对象、税制结构、税负水平和征收管理上进行重新设计,最终建立起全新的、健全的房地产税收体系。     

我国开征物业税有关问题的研究

《中共中央关于完善社会主义市场经济若干问题的决定》中提出:“实施城镇建设税费改革, 条件具备时对不动产开征统一规范的物业税,相应取消有关收费。”物业税的开征成为新一轮税制改革诸项税改举措中令理论界、实业界、普通百姓重点关注的内容。本文重点分析了我国现行房地产税制的现状及存在的主要问题,论述了开征物业税的难点和必要性,并对我国开征物业税提出了初步设想。     

Real Estate Risk Exposure of Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts

This study examines the linkage between equity real estate investment trust (REIT) returns and the private real estate factor. The results reveal a tighter connection between REIT and the private real estate market starting from 1993. In addition, large-cap REITs seem to behave more like real estate than do small-cap REITs. Overall, the results are consistent with three notions: (1) that institutional investors provide information-gathering services (Bradrinath et al., Rev. Financ. Stud., 8:401–430, 1995), (2) that a more sophisticated investor base improves information flow, and (3) that a high degree of participation from institutional investors strengthens the linkage between REIT returns and the underlying real estate factor (Ziering et al., The evolution of public and private market investing in the new real estate capital markets, Prudential Real Estate Investors, Parsippany, NJ, 1997).

房地产税收调控政策的效应分析与建议

本文梳理了2005年以来国家针对房地产投资规模过大和部分城市住房价格上涨过快状况而出台的多项税收调控措施,并通过理论和实证分析认为,房地产税收调控政策的重点应从目前对供给方征税转向对需求方征税,即在房地产保有环节征税。为此,应尽快建立起全面准确的房地产信息资料和监控系统,加快推进物业税(不动产税)的改革。     

英国市政税对我国开征物业税的借鉴

近年来我国房价居高不下,2006年国家先后出台相关法规对房地产市场进行调控,但是实施效果并不理想。本文对现行法规在实施中遇到的问题进行了分析,并借鉴英国市政税征收的成功经验,提出通过开征物业税来保证地方财政收入、引导房地产行业理性健康发展的建议。     

Is It Possible to Construct Derivatives for the Paris Residential Market?

Index-based derivatives markets are fast developing in Europe, the US and Asia. Both valuation based and transactions based indices are used as bases for these derivatives contracts. This paper addresses the issue of revision effects on key index parameters, and their implications for derivatives pricing and questions whether these indices may be suitable for derivatives. More specifically, we address the issue of the robustness of the price level, mean, and volatility estimates for two repeat sales real estate price indices: the classical Weighted Repeat Sales (WRS) method and a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) factorial method, as elaborated in Baroni et al. (J Real Estate Res, 29(2):137–158, 2007). Our work is an extension of Clapham et al. (Real Estate Econ, 34(2):275–302, 2006), with the aim of helping judge the efficiency of such indices in designing real estate derivatives. We use an extensive repeat sales database for the Paris (France) residential market. We describe the dataset used and compute the parameters (index price level, trend and volatility) of the indices produced over the period 1982–2005. We then test the sensitivity of these two indices to revisions due to additional repeat-sales transactions information. Our analysis is conducted on the overall Paris market as well as on sub-markets. Our main conclusion is that even if the revision problem may cause substantial concern for the stability of key parameters that are used as inputs in the pricing of derivatives contracts, the order of magnitude of revision on derivatives pricing is not sufficient to deter market participants when it comes to products such a swap contract or insurance contracts against severe losses. We also show that WRS and PCA react differently to revision. The impact of index revision is non negligible in estimating the index price level for both indices. This result is consistent with existing literature for the US and Swedish markets. Price level revision causes moderate concern when trading products such as index futures or price insurance contracts, but could deter option like products. We show that managing this price level revision risk is similar to delta hedging in standard option pricing theory. We also find that although revision impact on index trend can be important, the WRS method seems more robust than PCA. However, the trend revision impact order of magnitude for contracts such as total return swaps is low. Finally, revision influence on volatility estimates seems to have a modest impact on derivatives, and according to the robustness of the volatility estimate, the PCA factorial index seems to fare relatively better than the WRS index. Hence, our findings show that the factorial index could better sustain volatility based derivatives. We also show that whatever the index, managing this volatility revision risk is similar to vega hedging in option pricing theory.

我国房地产开发资金来源结构状况分析

本文拟就我国房地产开发资金来源结构状况进行分析,从中可以看出房地产业融资渠道单一,风险过度集中于银行,房地产投融资金融创新滞后,以及房地产开发企业自有资金不足的现象是当前我国房地产投融资市场存在的较为普遍的问题.针对这些问题,本文相应地提出了拓宽房地产融资渠道、加大金融产品创新力度、完善房地产金融立法等一系列政策建议.     

刍议物业税的差别税收政策

在物业税的税制设计中涉及一些差别税收政策,包括土地和房屋建筑物的差别税收政策、地区之间的差别税收政策以及对不同对象税收优惠的差别税收政策。本文对这些差别税收政策的效应进行了分析,并在此基础上提出了物业税税制设计的相关建议。     

美国马里兰州财产税税制概况及特点

财产税是美国地方政府的主体税种。本文系统介绍了美国马里兰州财产税税制的概况及特点,并对我国建立物业税制度提出了一些建议,如物业税税制宜简不宜繁、对个人房地产应设立较轻的税负、加强评税机构及相关制度的建设、在试点的基础上逐步开征物业税等。     

The accuracy of real estate indices: Repeat sale estimators

Simulation techniques allow us to examine the behavior and accuracy of several repeat sales regression estimators used to construct real estate return indices. We show that the generalized least squares (GLS) method is the maximum likelihood estimator, and we show how estimation accuracy can be significantly improved through a Baysian approach. In addition, we introduce a biased estimation procedure based upon the James and Stein method to address the problems of multicollinearity common to the procedure.