Identification and critical time forecasting of real estate bubbles in the USA

We present a hybrid model for diagnosis and critical time forecasting of real estate bubbles. The model combines two elements: (1) the Log Periodic Power Law Singular model to describe endogenous price dynamics originated from positive feedback loops among economic agents; and (2) a diffusion index that creates a parsimonious representation of multiple macroeconomic variables. We explicitly compare the in-sample and out-sample behaviour of our model on the housing price indices of 380 US metropolitan areas. Empirical results suggest that the model is able to forecast the end of the bubbles and to identify the variables that are highly relevant during the bubble regime.     

Government real estate interventions and the stock market

We study the spillover of government interventions in the real estate market to the stock market. We find that the more active mutual funds decreased ownership in equities with no short-term reversal. Furthermore, they increased ownership in the finance sector stocks without significant changes to their real estate equity holdings. The interventions affecting the riskiness of the finance sector stocks triggered a larger trading response than the ones focused on the real estate sector stocks’ cash flows. Overall, the spillover of the housing market shocks to the stock market seems to be materialized mostly through the discount rate channel.     

Jobs,location, and real estate

The decision to relocate has traditionally been based on job opportunities alone, with no attention paid to the real estate market. The cost of housing, its rate of return, and its specificity to a location do not enter the decision to move or stay. This article develops a more general definition of income, including real estate and labor markets. The null hypothesis is that relocation is based on comparing labor income differentials alone. The alternative is that income is more broadly based, including real estate returns. Estimates are provided in a quantal choice framework.     

On the real estate market efficiency

This reseach reexamines the efficiency hypothesis of the real estate market using monthly data and the vector autoregressive (VAR) modelling technique. The tests focus on the causal linkage between real estate returns and a number of relevant financial and economic variables. An eight-by-eight VAR model is estimated using the FPE and the specific gravity criteria, in conjunction with an extensive series of specification tests. The empirical results distilled from system estimations suggest that the real estate market is efficient with respect to available information on the industrial production, the risk premia, the term structure of interest rates, and the monetary base. Movements in these variables are quickly and fully utilized by market agents, perhaps owing to the intensity with which their relationship with stock returns has been discussed in the literature and the popular media. However, the results also suggest the presence of a significant lagged relationship between real estate returns and fiscal policy moves, even when the paths through other potential determinants of these returns are taken into account. Of course, our finding that the fiscal policy measure is useful in predicting stock returns does not necessarily imply that the real estate market is inefficient. At a minimum, inefficiency is revealed only if a careful analysis of the budgetary process can help design a profitable (exploitable) trading strategy.     

The crowding out effect of booming real estate markets on corporate TFP: evidence from China

This paper explores the impact of housing price appreciation on corporate total factor productivity (TFP) in Chinese A‐share listed corporations. Results show that increasing real estate prices negatively affect corporate TFP. Meanwhile, we find that the deterring effect is especially significant for state‐owned enterprises (SOEs), large corporations and manufacturing corporations. This research further provides suggestive evidence that managerial myopia may be one potential explanation for the crowding out effect of increasing housing prices. When home purchase is under restriction, however, the negative impact of rising housing prices on corporate TFP declines sharply. This study illustrates the efficiency cost of China's booming real estate market.     

The impact of financing decisions on the security returns of real estate corporations

This research investigates the valuation impact of financing decisions on the common stock of real estate corporations. We compare the results of our study with the results of similar studies in the corporate finance literature to test whether the response to security offerings by real estate firms differs systematically from the response to offerings by industrial and utility firms. The results of this study indicate a generally favorable price response to straight bond announcements, and unfavorable responses to common stock, convertible bonds, and lines of credit announcements.     

The accuracy of real estate indices: Repeat sale estimators

Simulation techniques allow us to examine the behavior and accuracy of several repeat sales regression estimators used to construct real estate return indices. We show that the generalized least squares (GLS) method is the maximum likelihood estimator, and we show how estimation accuracy can be significantly improved through a Baysian approach. In addition, we introduce a biased estimation procedure based upon the James and Stein method to address the problems of multicollinearity common to the procedure.     

The tax-induced holding periods of real estate Investors: Theory and empirical evidence

This article reexamines holding period decisions in real estate investment. It develops and empirically tests a holding period model recognizing not only taxes but also refinancing and investor-specific determinants. Based on a sample of over 1,000 real estate transactions with observed holding periods, the results of our tests support the conclusion that investors' consumption and investment preferences and prevailing market interest rates are more important than tax issues in determining the holding periods of real estate investors.     

Common factors in international securitized real estate markets

This study investigates the presence of common factors in the securitized real estate markets of the Untied States (US), United Kingdom (UK), Hong Kong (HK), and Singapore (SG). Using a combination of factor analysis and canonical correlation analysis on 10-year monthly return data for 142 real estate securities in the four markets, more common risk factors among real estate securities within a country than across countries are detected. In addition, there is at least one common securitized real estate market factor that is moderately correlated with the world real estate market, and to a lesser extent, with the world stock market. However, the degree of linkage across the four securitized real estate markets is much weaker than the strong linkages present across the four economies. It further appears that the extent to which correlations are found in international securitized real estate markets might largely be due to the increasing integrated nature of the world real economy, rather than a result of the globalization of financial markets. The results are preliminary, but indicative, and suggest that more studies exploring how common factors, together with the local market portfolio, could help explain the return-generating process of securitized real estate.     

A theory of predictable excess returns in real estate

A principal-agent model is employed to characterize the equilibrium mortgage contract. The value of a house depends on the actions of its owner but affects the wealth of both the owner and the lender who writes the mortgage contract with which the house is purchased. Because of this, the buyer is exposed to moral hazard. In some situations, this can lead to inefficient maintenance and predictable excess returns to home ownership. Even though there are potential buyers willing to pay back more money, the bank will not write loans for these consumers because of the adverse incentive effects of such an action.     

Market conditions,risk, and real estate portfolio returns: Some empirical evidence

This research examined the return behavior of a portfolio of American and New York Stock Exchange real estate firms. A dummy variable procedure was used to test for excess return and/or change in risk behavior across market conditions. The findings were as follows. First, no excess return was found for any model specification. Second, no changes in beta were found using the benchmark approach. The beta shifted when an up market was defined as a nonrecessionary period; the beta behaved procyclically. However, the subperiod tests indicated that effect was transitory and period specific.     

海南省海口、三亚两市房地产泡沫程度分析

近年来,海南省房地产市场呈现出迅猛发展的态势,特别是作为海南省经济发展龙头的海口,三亚两市,其不断攀升的房价导致居民购房压力大,购房困难。各方人士针对房价的高涨势头及由此可能产生的“泡沫效应”展开了热议。本文采用国际上判断房地产价格是否合理的若干指标,结合2003—2008年海口和三亚两市的统计数据进行分析,结果显示出海口市与三亚市的房地产市场已存在泡沫迹象。政府部门应未雨绸缪,积极出台相应的政策法规。防止房地产泡沫破裂的损失再次发生。     

Asset value management in the Portuguese real estate sector

This paper analyzes whether real estate investment fund managers use asset valuation discretion strategically to achieve financial reporting objectives. Portuguese real estate investment funds represent a unique opportunity to investigate executive behavior regarding accounting choice, as fund managers may choose to use historical cost, fair value or a mixed system (historical cost with internal revaluations) to value fund properties. We also investigate the factors that influence this strategic behavior. Empirical results confirm that fund managers manage asset valuations in order to avoid net asset value declines, particularly in a period of financial distress. We also observe that funds with a higher level of past unconditional conservatism are more likely to manage asset values. With respect to corporate governance issues, we conclude that audit quality reduces managerial discretion and that the conflicts that may arise between fund management company shareholders and fund participants due to management fees do not seem to have impact on fund managers’ opportunistic behavior.     

Franchising and real estate brokerage

This paper examines the value of franchise affiliation to real estate brokerage firms. It uses a national sample to estimate models of brokerage firm sales and revenues. The results suggest that franchisees sell more properties than nonaffiliates, but that the average franchise sale results in less revenue. The net benefit of franchise affiliation is a 9.0 percent increase in net revenue to the average firm. We compare the initial cost of affiliation with the benefits and find that the up-front fees charged by franchisors are substantially lower than the present value of the stream of incremental profits generated by franchise affiliation.     

How to deal with real estate booms: Lessons from country experiences

The financial crisis showed, once again, that neglecting real estate booms can have disastrous consequences. In this paper, we spell out the circumstances under which a more active policy agenda on this front would be justified. Then, we offer insights on the pros and cons as well as implementation challenges of various policy tools that can be used to contain the damage to the financial system and the economy from real estate boom–bust episodes. These insights derive from econometric analysis, when possible, and case studies of country experiences. Broadly, booms financed through credit and involving leverage are more likely to warrant a policy response. In that context, macroprudential measures can be targeted more precisely to specific sources of risk, but they may prove ineffective because of circumvention. In that case, monetary policy may have to be used to lean against the wind.     

Assessing targeted macroprudential financial regulation: The case of the 2006 commercial real estate guidance for banks

In January 2006, federal regulators issued guidance requiring banks with specific high concentrations of commercial real estate (CRE) loans to tighten managerial controls. This paper shows that banks with concentrations in excess of the thresholds set in the guidance subsequently experienced slower growth in their CRE portfolios than can be explained by changes in bank or economic conditions. Moreover, banks above the CRE thresholds tended to have slower commercial and industrial loan growth but faster household loan growth following issuance of the guidance. The results highlight the potentially broad influence that portfolio-based macroprudential regulation might have on bank behavior.     

Price formation and the appraisal function in real estate markets

A real estate market model characterized by incomplete information, costly search, and varying expectations is presented. The model describes a self-selection process for market participants and a distribution of transaction prices. These transaction prices, which arise from a Nash equilibrium, can be expressed as a noisy signal, reflecting incomplete information as well as the conditions of sale. The appraiser's role is formalized as the task of signal extraction. The model emphasizes the differences in information available to individual buyers and sellers, who make transactions only infrequently, and the appraiser, whose expertise comes from observing many transactions. Based on the model, it is shown that contrary to popular perceptions, appraisal smoothing is consistent with an optimal updating strategy.     

房地产市场变化与通货膨胀传导机制

文章分析了房价上涨在通胀形成和传导中的作用,指出房地产等资产价格上涨通过引发通胀预期推高各类生产要素特别是劳动力成本价格,从而对整体价格水平产生成本推动型的上涨压力,其中劳动力等生产要素价格上涨通过加大食品价格波幅和提高其价格中枢水平对通胀水平产生显著影响,因此,抑制物价须管好房价,并充分发挥货币政策的作用。     

The contribution of (shadow) banks and real estate to systemic risk in China

We empirically evaluate how accounting and financial variables affect the level of systemic risk in traditional and shadow banks, and in real estate finance services in China over the period 2006–2019. We also conduct some stability analysis by evaluating the impact of crisis sub-periods. We find that systemic risk increases in the Size of large financial institutions, particularly shadow entities, while it is insensitive to the Size of real estate finance services. Real estate finance services are instead particularly sensitive to Maturity Mismatch and Leverage. Finally, systemic risk differs across state and non state owned banks.     

The role of co-skewness in the pricing of real estate

The current study investigates whether systematic skewness offers an alternative perspective as to why the risk-adjusted returns on real estate should be similar to that for stocks. This is not a trivial issue since an affirmative finding implies that we might be incorrectly measuring real estate risk from both a pricing and a portfolio allocation perspective. A multivariate test of the Kraus-Litzenberger model is used to investigate this skewness proposition with the K-L CAPM tested against several alternative versions of the CAPM. The study finds that the Kraus-Litzenberger model offers additional insights into the measurement of real estate risk. Evidence is also found that both the zero beta and the consumption-oriented CAPM hold, which is consistent with the recent literature in real estate.