Macroeconomic News and Stock Returns in the United States and Germany

Abstract. Using daily data for the January 1997 to June 2002 period, we analyze similarities and differences in the impact of macroeconomic news on stock returns in the United States and Germany. We consider 27 different types of news for the United States and 12 different types of news for Germany. For the United States, we present evidence for asymmetric reactions of stock prices to news. In a boom (recession) period, bad (good) news on GDP growth and unemployment or lower (higher) than expected interest rates may be good news for stock prices. In the period under consideration there is little evidence for asymmetric effects in Germany. However, in the case of Germany, international news appears at least as important as domestic news. There is no evidence that US stock prices are influenced by German news. The analysis of bi-hourly data for Germany confirms these results.     

Works council ‘disaffection’ and establishment survivability

This article investigates the association between a measure of works council heterogeneity and plant closings in Germany, 2006–2015. Two datasets are used to identify failed establishments, while institutional heterogeneity is captured by management perceptions of the role of the works council in managerial decision making and also by allowing for works council learning. The potential moderating role of sectoral collective bargaining is also examined. We report that works councils per se are not associated with plant closure. Rather, it is establishments with disaffected councils that display higher rates of closure. The latter result does not obtain where such establishments are covered by sectoral agreements; an outcome that is consistent with the literature on the mitigation of rent-seeking behaviour, and one that also receives support from our finding that plants with dissonant councils are more likely than their consensual counterparts to transition into sectoral bargaining coverage. On the other hand, there is only limited evidence of works council learning.     

The spillover effects of United States foreign trade zones

This article empirically tests the geographic and economic spillover effects of foreign trade zones (FTZs) in the United States by utilizing propensity score matching and the geographic rules of the programme. While these FTZ sites are designed to support manufacturing, we find that ZIP codes that receive FTZ sites experience growth in new and existing non-manufacturing establishments. Our results also show that FTZs spillover into nearby ZIP codes. We find that ZIP codes that border FTZ ZIP codes also experience positive effects on non-manufacturing establishments and these spillovers are strongest within a 5-mile radius of an FTZ.     

Pollution Abatement and Productivity Growth: Evidence from Germany,Japan, the Netherlands,and the United States

The passage of environmental legislation was accompanied by concerns about its potential detrimental effect on productivity. We assume inputs can be assigned to either abatement activities or good output production. This allows us to specify regulated and unregulated production frontiers to determine the association between pollution abatement and productivity growth. We then employ our “assigned input” model to determine the association between productivity and abatement activities for manufacturing industries in Germany, Japan, the Netherlands and the United States.     

CURRENCY VERSUS BANKING IN THE FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 1931

During the 1920s, Germany was the world's largest capital importer, financing reparations through U.S. credits. We examine financial channels in crisis transmission between these two countries around the German financial crisis of 1931. We specify a structural dynamic factor model to identify financial and monetary factors separately for each of the two economies. We find substantial crisis transmission from Germany to the United States via the financial channel, while monetary or financial crisis transmission from the United States to Germany was weak. We also find major real effects of the 1931 crisis on both economies, again transmitted via the financial channel.     

A Head-to-Head Comparison of Augmented Wealth in Germany and the United States*

We examine the composition of augmented household wealth (i.e., the sum of net worth and pension wealth) in the United States and Germany. Pension wealth makes up a considerable portion of household wealth, of about 48 percent in the United States and 61 percent in Germany. When pension wealth is included in household wealth, the Gini coefficient falls from 0.889 to 0.700 in the United States, and from 0.755 to 0.508 in Germany. If the wealth shares in Germany were the same as in the United States, this would lead to a 12.6 percent increase in the Gini coefficient in the augmented wealth distribution in Germany.     

Works Councils and Collective Bargaining in Germany: The Impact on Productivity and Wages

This paper investigates the interaction between establishment‐level codetermination and industry‐level collective bargaining in Germany. Based on a bargaining model, we derive our main hypothesis: In establishments covered by collective bargaining agreements, works councils are more likely to be engaged in productivity‐enhancing activities and less engaged in rent‐seeking activities than their counterparts in uncovered establishments. Our empirical analysis confirms this hypothesis. The presence of works councils exerts a positive impact on productivity within the covered industrial relations regime but not within the uncovered regime. The presence of works councils has a positive effect on wages within the uncovered regime but not to the same degree within the covered regime.     

TRAINING AND ESTABLISHMENT SURVIVAL

Training decisions are affected by beliefs about the returns to training, surrounding which firms face considerable uncertainty. We model the consequent association between training, profitability and establishment survival. We propose a plausible definition of optimism about training effectiveness, and show that more optimistic firms train more. We then present estimates of the relationship between training and the likelihood of medium‐term commercial survival. We find that increased training of non‐manual workers in large establishments is associated with a greater chance of survival; however, disaggregation reveals that the association differs across occupational groups. In smaller establishments, increased training for Craft and Technical workers is associated with better chances of survival, while for Professional workers the opposite effect is found.     

A Village Economy: Land and People of Huecorio

This paper utilizes an original establishment survey in a select few low-wage industries in Los Angeles to draw conclusions about the existence of and explanations for intra-industry wage differentials. We explore differences in average establishment wages but also in the starting wage of the largest low-wage occupations in establishments. Well over 50 percent of the variation in average establishment wages occurs across establishments within industries and 60 percent or more of the starting occupational wages of establishments occurs both within industries and occupations. Differences in the skills of workers account for a portion of the variation in intra-industry average and intra-occupational starting wages, but so too do institutional factors such as unions, rent sharing, monitoring difficulty, and recruitment difficulty.     

TEAMWORK AND INTRA‐FIRM WAGE DISPERSION AMONG BLUE‐COLLAR WORKERS

Using data on a sample of manufacturing establishments in Germany, we find that the use of self‐managed teams is associated with increased intra‐firm wage inequality between skilled and unskilled blue‐collar workers. We also show that moderating factors play an important role. While teamwork interacts positively with employer‐provided further training and a production technology of the most recent vintage, it interacts negatively with the age of the establishment and the coverage by a collective bargaining agreement.     

Evaluating the effects of entry regulations and firing costs on international income differences

This paper analyzes the effects of entry regulations and firing costs on cross-country differences in income and productivity. We construct a general equilibrium industry-dynamics model and quantitatively evaluate it using the cross-country data on entry costs and firing costs. Entry costs lower overall productivity in an economy by keeping low-productivity establishments in operation and making the establishment size inefficiently large. Firing costs lower productivity by reducing the reallocation of labor from low-productivity establishments to high-productivity establishments. The linear regression of the data on the model prediction accounts for 27% of the cross-sectional variation in total factor productivity. Moving the level of entry costs and firing costs from the U.S. level to that of the average of low income countries (countries with a Gross National Income below 2% of the U.S. level) reduces TFP by 27% in the model without capital, and by 34% in the model with capital and capital adjustment costs.     

FOREIGN OWNERSHIP, WAGES, AND WAGE CHANGES IN U.S. INDUSTRIES, 1987–92

The authors construct a data set by industry by state by ownership for establishments in the United States using 1987 and 1992 U.S. Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis matched data to investigate the relationship between foreign ownership and wages. They find evidence that foreign-owned establishments pay higher wages in manufacturing, retail trade, and other relatively low-skill industries, but not in other higher-skill industries. A growth in the fraction of employment in foreign establishments was not significantly associated with an increase in overall wages. There is no evidence of a wage spillover to domestic establishments. (JEL J3 , F2 )     

Testing rebalancing strategies for stock-bond portfolios across different asset allocations

We compare the risk-adjusted performance of stock–bond portfolios between rebalancing and buy-and-hold across different asset allocations by reporting statistical significance levels. Our investigation is based on a 30-year dataset and incorporates the financial markets of the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany. To draw useful recommendations to investment management, we implement a history-based simulation approach which enables us to mimic realistic market conditions. Even if the portfolio weight of stocks is very low, our empirical results show that a frequent rebalancing significantly enhances risk-adjusted portfolio performance for all analysed countries and all risk-adjusted performance measures.     

Personality traits and economic activity

Following Lynn’s (1991) studying showing that the scores of undergraduate students in 43 countries on variables such as work ethic and achievement motivation predicted per capita income and economic growth rates in those countries, the present study explored whether the average scores of residents of the 50 states in the United States were associated with the gross state product. States whose residents scored higher on openness had higher gross state products while those whose residents scored higher in openness and lower on neuroticism had higher gross state products per capita.     

Immigration and economic freedom of the US states: Does the institutional quality of immigrants' origin countries matter?

When people immigrate to the United States from countries with less economic freedom, they do not dampen economic freedom in their destination states. We use the Economic Freedom of North America report to rate the economic freedom of US states, and we group immigrants by how far below the United States their origin countries score in the Economic Freedom of the World report. Our major findings hold true even when states receive immigrants from countries with far less economic freedom. Most relationships between immigration and the US states' economic freedom scores are neither statistically nor economically significant.     

ECONOMIC BURDENS OF MARITAL DISRUPTIONS: A COMPARISON OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY

Longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the German Socio-Economic Panel are used to show that women and children are worse off following a marital split than are men in both the United States and Germany. The size of the difference is sensitive to the equivalence scale used, but despite its far more extensive tax and transfer system the disparate impact of divorce or separation on women and children persisted in Germany at a level at least as high as in the United States.     

A COMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE MEASURES OF ECONOMIC WELL-BEING FOR GERMANY AND THE UNITED STATES

This paper, using six waves of data (1984-89) from the United States Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) and the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), compares economic well-being using single year income, multi-year income, and wealth as measures. We find inequality to be greater in the United States than in Germany regardless of the measure used. However, the relative degree of inequality varies across measures. When we disaggregate our data by age and gender categories, in general we find greater inequality in the United States, but wealth inequality among older Germans is greater than it is among older Americans.     

Local versus Global Assessment of Mobility*

Mobility indices are popular tools designed to quantify the extent of income changes by aggregating “local” distributional change into a “global” scalar according to some rule. For some mobility measures, this aggregation rule is only implicit in their standard definition. We derive an insightful approximation to the (statistical) aggregation rule for the important class of mobility indices introduced by Shorrocks (Journal of Economic Theory 19 (1978), 376–93) and further generalized by Maasoumi and Zandvakili (Economic Letters 22 (1986), 97–102), which enables us to characterize their normative properties. We also develop methods for estimation and inference. A substantive empirical contribution emerges from the comparison of mobility between the United States and Germany. Our methods reveal why income mobility is higher in Germany than in the United States: Higher German mobility in the bottom of the distribution is combined with an implicitly higher weighting by the mobility index at the bottom.     

ICT AND EUROPE's PRODUCTIVITY PERFORMANCE: INDUSTRY-LEVEL GROWTH ACCOUNT COMPARISONS WITH THE UNITED STATES

In this paper we present a new industry-level database to analyze sources of growth in four major European countries: France, Germany, Netherlands and the United Kingdom (EU-4), in comparison with the United States for the period 1979–2000. Aggregate labor productivity growth is decomposed into industry-level contributions of labor quality, ICT and non-ICT capital deepening and TFP. A small set of service industries is mainly responsible for the acceleration in ICT capital deepening in both regions, but their contribution to growth is lower in the EU-4 than in the U.S. TFP in these ICT-intensive services accelerated in the U.S. in the 1990s, but not in Europe. In addition, widespread deceleration in non-ICT capital deepening in the EU-4 has led to a European labor productivity slowdown.     

Are free trade agreements good for the environment? A panel data analysis

This study empirically examines the relationship between free trade agreements (FTAs) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. For this purpose, we use three different FTAs: the Southern Common Market, the North American Free Trade Agreement, and the Australia–United States Free Trade Agreement. These FTAs are between developing, both developing and developed, and only developed countries, respectively. Panel unit root, panel cointegration, and fully modified ordinary least squares estimations are employed to examine the long‐run relationship between GHG emissions and trade liberalization. The results indicate that the environmental effects of FTAs depend on the different agreement types. When FTAs are between only developed or developing countries, overall there is no environmental damage, and these types of FTAs can be beneficial for the environmental quality in the long run. However, when developing and developed countries are in a trade agreement, overall environmental quality decreases due to increased GHG emissions.