Singapore's Manufacturing Sector's TFP Growth: A Decomposition Analysis

Singapore has been criticized recently for experiencing insignificant total factor productivity (TFP) growth. This paper examines whether this criticism is valid in the context of the manufacturing sector of Singapore. Using new data and the stochastic production frontier approach, TFP growth is decomposed into technological progress and changes in technical efficiency. While the results could not reject the hypothesis that Singapore's output growth is mostly input-driven, they show that, despite technological progress, technical inefficiency is the cause for the low and declining TFP growth in the manufacturing sector.J. Comp. Econom., December 2000, 28(4), pp. 828–839. The University of Queensland; Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, The Australian National University.     

Aggregate Matching Efficiency: A Stochastic Production Frontier Approach, France 1990–1994

We evaluate the determinants of aggregate matching efficiencychanges through a stochastic translog production frontiermodel. The efficiency coefficient is represented by a stochasticfunction of variables meant to capture workers and firmscharacteristics. The model is estimated on French data coveringtwenty-two regions from March 1990 till February 1995. Ourestimates suggest that aggregate matching efficiency has decreasedsteadily in the early nineties. There are also wide cross-regionaldifferences. On average, about 30% of the variations ofefficiency observed across time and regions can be related tochanges in the explanatory variables used in the model. The mostimportant explanatory variables are the proportion of youngsters,females and immigrants in the stock of job seekers. Long-termunemployment has a significant negative effect, population densitya significant positive one. The huge decline in the proportion ofpermanent job offers has apparently little effect on matchingefficiency.     

我国玉米全要素生产率增长及其对产出的贡献

运用T orngv ist-T he il指数法和增长账户法测算了1985~2003年期间我国TFP的变动及其对玉米产出增长的贡献。结果表明,1985~2003年我国玉米TFP的年均增长率为2.23%,对产出增长的贡献为66.13%。从总体上看,这一时期我国玉米TFP增长还呈现出明显的波动性特征,粮食生产和流通制度的变革,技术创新和新技术的推广使用,以及玉米市场价格变动可能是产生玉米TFP生产率波动的主要原因。     

Efficiency,heterogeneity and cost function analysis: empirical evidence from pathology services in the National Health Service in England

Pathology services are increasingly recognized as key to effective healthcare delivery – underpinning diagnosis, long-term disease management and research. To the extent that pathology services affect a patient’s treatment pathway, significant healthcare costs are influenced directly by the performance of these services. Given pressures on the UK Department of Health to make efficiency savings and that little is known about the efficiency of pathology laboratories, this area offers unlocked potential for efficiency gains. We adopt a time varying inefficiency model, with laboratory-specific time paths for inefficiency, to identify potential savings in pathology services based on a panel of 57 English laboratories over a 5 year period. We apply a range of approaches to account for observable and unobservable heterogeneity between laboratories. We find potential efficiency savings of 13% in pathology services in this sample, which implies the potential for an annual saving of £390m in pathology across the NHS. Our study also provides valuable insights into the impact of a range of factors influencing laboratory costs.     

R&;D: A Small Contribution to Productivity Growth

In this article I evaluate the contribution of R&D investments to productivity growth. The basis for the analysis are the free entry condition and the fact that most R&D innovations are embodied. Free entry yields a relationship between the resources devoted to R&D and the growth rate of technology. Since innovators are small, this relationship is not directly affected by the size of R&D externalities, or the presence of aggregate diminishing returns in R&D after controlling for the growth rate of output and the interest rate. The embodiment of R&D-driven innovations bounds the size of the production externalities. The resulting contribution of R&D to productivity growth in the US is smaller than 3–5 tenths of 1% point. This constitutes an upper bound for the case where innovators internalize the consequences of their R&D investments on the cost of conducting future innovations. From a normative perspective, this analysis implies that, if the innovation technology takes the form assumed in the literature, the actual US R&D intensity may be the socially optimal.     

Three levels of education and the economic growth

The aim of this article is to solve the question how the three main stages of education contribute to the labour productivity growth in selected 125 countries in the period 1999–2014. The model is based on the neoclassical production function enhanced with human capital. The authors draw on the Penn World Tables 9.0 and UNESCO databases. The key benefit of this article is that human capital is characterized according to the returns to education from average number of years of formal schooling at the primary, secondary and tertiary level. Based on the panel data analysis, the contributions of capital and of the three levels of education to the growth of labour productivity are estimated. At the same time, the model allows to estimate the contribution of total factor productivity. The results of the analysis show that tertiary education has the strongest impact on labour productivity across the considered economies. At the same time, the breakdown of aggregate human capital by level of education leads to better clarification of the effects of human capital and physical capital on labour productivity. The conclusions also indicate a tendency towards rising returns to scale induced by the secondary and tertiary education.     

中国区域要素替代弹性变迁及其增长效应——基于异质劳动视角的随机前沿生产函数分析

文章采用1996-2014年省际面板数据构建区域随机前沿生产函数模型,从劳动异质性视角拓展要素替代弹性分析;并首次联合运用协整方程和误差修正模型,从长期均衡和短期波动过程分析来揭示要素替代约束对经济增长的影响.结果发现:尽管三大区域各自的要素替代弹性变化显著不同,但要素替代弹性的增长效应却彼此具有一致性.其中,东部地区的资本-劳动替代弹性明显地存在着0.805的增长门槛,只有西部地区的资本-劳动替代弹性越过了门槛值,与区域增长具有尚不显著的正相关性而支持德拉格兰德维尔假说;三大区域的资本-技能互补性提高对经济增长的推动作用都不明显;劳动-技能替代弹性则表现为显著的正向增长效应,显示出各区域存在着人力资本红利.值得注意的是,与均衡增长路径上"资本-劳动替代弹性提高能够推动经济增长"的德拉格兰德维尔假说不同,在考虑劳动异质性和技术非效率的前提下,中国地区增长更支持"劳动-技能替代弹性提高能够推动经济增长"的结论.文章为甄别新常态下的区域增长潜力转变、剖析要素匹配合理性及产业结构调整可行性奠定基础.     

基于非参数随机前沿面模型的高技术产业效率研究

笔者利用非参数-随机前沿面模型对我国的高技术产业效率进行了实证研究。研究结果表明我国的高技术产业发展过多的是依靠数量扩张,投入产出效率不高,各地区之间的高技术产业效率差异很大,而且在某些地区还存在着高技术产业发展水平和效率水平相背离的现象。     

中国的经济转型与经济增长质量:基于TFP贡献的考察

影响经济发展结果的不仅仅是经济增长的速度,还有经济增长的质量.经济增长的质量也是一国经济发展的重要内容之一.经济转型实质是一场大规模的制度变迁过程,经济转型的关键是"使制度正确",形成社会制度结构中的关键变量--社会激励结构,节约经济增长过程中的交易成本,形成提高经济增长质量的激励和治理机制.中国特有的经济转型与经济增长质量变化之间存在密切关系,本文运用全要素生产率的贡献度来对我国1978年改革以来的经济增长质量进行量化,在实证研究基础上得出体现我国经济转型的市场化率、工业化率、城市化率与经济增长质量之间是正向的相关关系,我国的经济转型在一定程度上促进了经济增长质量的提高.     

基于随机前沿生产函数的我国主要省市人力资本与R＆D投资效率实证检验

人力资本和R&D投资一方面促进了经济增长,另一方面又增强了科研主体对外部技术的吸收能力,推动了知识与技术的扩散。本文基于随机前沿生产函数,利用1998—2007年中国29个省市共290个观测数据,通过引入人力资本和R&D投资两个参数,分析人力资本和R&D投资对生产力的直接影响和通过提高技术吸收能力对技术效率的间接影响。结果表明:人力资本在诠释地区间效率差异中扮演着极其重要的角色,它不仅直接影响生产力的提高,而且还通过提高技术吸收能力从而间接影响技术效率;R&D投资对技术效率有重要影响,而对生产力的直接影响并不强。     

Productivity growth of newly industrializing economies in heterogeneous capital goods markets: the case of the Korean machinery and equipment industry

Although many previous studies have investigated the economic growth of East Asian countries from the perspective of productivity growth, they have adopted a limited focus only on the national level or on the aggregated level and have overlooked the heterogeneity at the disaggregated level. Furthermore, only a few studies have examined the sources of the remarkable growth and trade performance of the Korean machinery and equipment industry, despite its importance for sustainable growth of national economy. Therefore, we investigated the Total Factor Productivity Growth (TFPG) of the Korean machinery and equipment industry and its 12 sub-sectors from 1970 to 2012 using the stochastic frontier production approach. As a result, we found that the industry has achieved labour input-driven TFPG largely due to technical progress. This is contrary to the previous result that East Asia has expanded the production frontier by capital accumulation. In contrast, in some sub-sectors, scale effect and allocation efficiency have driven TFPG. We also found distinctive patterns of TFPG across different sub-sectors from the perspectives of the effect of input factors and the pattern of technical progress. These results imply that policy makers should consider industry-specific policy designs that incorporate the specific characteristics of individual sub-sectors.     

我国茶产业全要素生产率增长及其分解--基于随机前沿生产函数的分析

文章利用超越对数的随机前沿生产函数,测算了1996-2007年我国茶产业的全要素生产率。研究表明：研究期间我国茶产业TFP平均增长0.70%,平均技术进步率为1.42%,平均技术效率为72.05%,但都呈逐步下降趋势; TFP增长的主要来自技术进步,但技术效率的变化和规模报酬率出现一定的退步,阻碍TFP的增长;各省份TFP增长有差异,其中四川省的TFP增长速度最快,而湖南省和陕西省的TFP成负增长;我国茶叶的劳动产出弹性逐年增大,而资本产出弹性逐渐变小,且我国茶叶生产一直处于规模报酬递减状态。     

中国可持续经济增长方式研究—基于1990-2007年间各省市的面板数据

在Lucsa(1988)模型基础上,以1990-2007年各省、市、自治区的面板数据计算中国的全要素生产率,通过对中国经济的全要素生产率的分解.考察各主要因素对经济增长的作用以及它们的变化情况,可以发现:中国的经济增长严重依赖投资拉动,技术进步与人力资本在中国经济增长中的作用不断提高,而较高的行政支出对经济增长起了比较明显的负作用.     

技术进步拉动河南省乡镇企业产出增长的实证分析

进入20世纪80年代以后,河南省乡镇企业发展迅猛,人们越来越认识到科学技术是生产力,而且是第一生产力。本文利用柯布一道格拉斯（C—D）生产函数,以全要素生产率增长率作为技术进步的衡量指标,对技术进步和河南省乡镇企业产出增长之间的联系进行了详细的实证分析。在分析中,本文剔除了资本投入、劳动投入和规模损益对河南省乡镇企业产出增长的影响,考察了技术进步对河南省乡镇企业产出增长的绝对拉动作用和相对贡献份额,最后提出了加快技术进步速度,保证河南省乡镇企业持续增长的若干政策建议。     

我国西部地区经济增长中的技术因素分析

利用1978—2010年我国西部地区12省市的数据,测算了我国西部地区的资本、劳动力和TFP对经济增长的贡献率。结果显示:当期我国西部地区的经济增长主要源于资本投入;但是,由于资本对经济增长的贡献太大,因此TFP呈相对平稳下降趋势,TFP对经济增长的作用还不是很明显。指出:若2010—2020年西部地区TFP对经济增长的贡献率为37.1%,则西部地区能实现以技术进步带来可持续增长。最后提出西部地区实现经济可持续增长的政策建议。     

全要素生产率与中国经济增长关系研究——基于VAR模型视角

运用TFP的变动来对经济增长潜力展开分析,是国内外经济学界的常见研究思路。从新古典模型出发,对改革开放以来的中国TFP进行估算分解,并构建TFP、GDP增长、资本增长和劳动力增长之间的VAR模型。实证研究认为,目前中国已进入跨越式发展时期,应大力发展资本市场,促进资本要素的有效流动,促进产业结构优化,将提高劳动力受教育水平作为重要发展战略,注重进行技术基础的革新,提高经济增长质量,促进经济发展方式向集约型发展方式转变。     

Openness and the Efficiency of FDI: A Panel Stochastic Production Frontier Study

This paper uses a stochastic translog production frontier to estimate technical inefficiency indices whose conditional mean is specified as a function of FDI and its interaction with openness of the economy. The model is estimated using an annual panel of 46 countries for the years, 1981–2001. The results suggest that increased FDI increases potential output in both developed and developing countries with the effect being more profound in the former. It is also found that increased FDI reduces technical inefficiencies the more open is the economy but that this effect holds only for developed economies. Thus qualified support is found for the “Bhagwati hypothesis” as the results reveal that the efficiency–enhancing effect of FDI depends not only on openness but also on the degree of development of the host country.

A further note on the three phases of the US business cycle

Using a number of alternative approaches, Sichel (1994) demonstrated evidence supporting the notion that the US business cycle is best characterized as having three distinct phases, viz. contraction, followed by rapid expansion during the early stages of the recovery phase, followed by a period of more normal expansionary growth, with the cycle then repeating itself. This contrasts with the more usual expansion/contraction, two phase characterization but is more in keeping with the original notion of the business cycle as conceived by Burns and Mitchell (1946). Here an alternative approach is employed for shedding light on this issue. Following the original suggestion of Hamilton (1989, 1990, 1991), a simple nonlinear, three phase, regime switching Markov model is compared against its simpler two phase version to determine which version is statistically more consistent with the business cycle historical evidence. The evidence seems to clearly support the three phase characterization and that this characterization yields interesting information on business cycle dynamics which is necessarily missed by the two phase model formulation.     

Production Efficiency in the South African Banking Sector: A Stochastic Analysis

Econometric estimates of the level of efficiency at bank branches are likely to provide detailed insight into the overall level of efficiency in banking. Therefore this paper uses Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis to assess the production efficiency of 61 bank branches in the nine provinces of the Republic of South Africa. We find that every branch is operating at increasing returns to scale and that the level of production efficiency of bank branches is lower than it could be. We also find that at current levels of output, on average, bank branches can reduce their costs by about 17% if they improve the level of efficiency. In addition, we find that Gauteng Province has the lowest average level of returns to scale, while the Free State Province has the highest average level of the nine provinces. In addition, via estimates of the posterior mean for shares and price elasticities, we find that the price of capital is the largest predicted proportion of costs. These findings suggest that bank branches could also obtain cost reductions by increasing the level of output. Regulatory policy reforms and competitive incentives to enable banks to meet this objective should be encouraged.     

我国重点高校技术转移效率变化的影响因素研究—基于面板随机前沿分析方法

为研究制约我国重点高校技术转移效率提升的影响因素,本研究基于随机前沿分析的超越对数函数测算了我国91所高校2007—2016年的技术转移效率的动态变化,探究了外部区域市场和高校自身异质性因素对技术转移效率的影响程度。研究发现:市场需求对技术转移效率的拉动作用是有限的,过大的市场需求可能抑制技术转移效率的提升;而高技术产业的聚集和与市场联系的增强可以有效提升技术转移效率。此外,就技术转移效率动态变化模式的研究发现,高校技术转移效率增长模式在不同学科结构和区域之间存在显著差异。最后,就研究结论对高校和政府提升技术转移效率提出了相应的政策建议。