Demographic structure and growth: The effect of unfunded social security

This paper examines how demographics affect economic growth in an OLG model with unfunded social security. We derive two interesting results. First, the relationship between population growth and per capita output growth is hump shaped. Second, the relationship between life expectancy and per capita output growth is also hump shaped.     

EFFECT OF INCOME DISTRIBUTION ON THE ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE

This paper augments the model of Andreoni and Levinson by analyzing the effect of income distribution on the inverted U‐shaped relationship between some forms of pollution and income, the so‐called ‘environmental Kuznets curve’. In a context in which pollution abatement technology shows increasing returns to scale and an inverse U‐shaped pollution–income path is present, this study demonstrates the existence of a majority voting equilibrium, and concludes that the inverted U‐shaped relationship is between median income and environmental degradation rather than between per capita income and environmental degradation. Our results suggest that an increase in equality in income distribution improves environmental quality and social efficiency. The implication of the model for the empirical estimation of environmental Kuznets curves is examined using a panel data set of 36 countries over a 20‐year period. Estimation results using different models show that income distribution might be an important factor in the empirical estimation of these curves.     

Capital Accumulation and Fiscal Policy in an OLG Model with Family Altruism

The idea of family altruism is that parents care only about their children's income and not about the use of this income made by the children. First, we establish dynamical properties which place the OLG model with family altruism halfway between the model with pure life‐cyclers ( Diamond 1965 ; American Economic Review 55, 1126–1150) and the one with dynastic altruism ( Barro 1974 ; Journal of Political Economy 82, 1095–1117). Then, we show that this concept leads to interesting fiscal policy conclusions less clear‐cut and more realistic than those obtained with the two previous standard OLG models: a pay‐as‐you‐go social security is neutral but not a public debt.     

Firm Heterogeneity,Contract Enforcement,and the Industry Dynamics of Offshoring*

We develop an endogenous growth model with R&D spillovers to study the long‐run consequences of offshoring with firm heterogeneity and incomplete contracts. In so doing, we model offshoring as the geographical fragmentation of a firm's production chain between a home upstream division and a foreign downstream division. While there is always a positive correlation between upstream bargaining weight and offshoring activities, there is an inverted U‐shaped relationship between these and growth. Whether offshoring with incomplete contracts also increases consumption depends on firm heterogeneity. As for welfare, whereas with complete contracts an R&D subsidy is enough to solve the inefficiency due to R&D spillovers, with incomplete contracts a production subsidy is also needed.     

创新链资源获取、互联网嵌入与技术创业

将创新链提供的资源解构为资产类和知识类两个类别,将互联网嵌入构念解析为联系度、匹配度和牺牲感3个维度,通过213家企业问卷,应用多元回归分析方法验证了理论假设。实证结果表明,资产类资源获取与技术创业呈倒U型关系,知识类资源获取与技术创业呈U型关系;联系度和匹配度与技术创业呈倒U型关系,牺牲感与技术创业呈U型关系;联系度在知识类资源获取与技术创业之间存在负向调节作用,匹配度在知识类资源获取与技术创业之间存在正向调节作用,牺牲感在知识类资源获取与技术创业之间不存在调节作用。     

Children’s environmental health,education, and economic development

Abstract This article aims at investigating the interplay between environmental quality, health, and economic development in a unified OLG framework. Human capital accumulation depends on the environment through its impact on children’s health and workers’ productivity. In turn, environmental quality dynamics rely upon human capital that determines maintenance efforts. This two‐way relationship generates a co‐evolution of human capital and environmental quality in the long run. Along the transition path, the dynamic interactions between economic and environmental spheres allow for replicating two different trajectories: some economies experiment an Environmental Kuznets Curve while some others are caught into the environmental poverty trap.     

制造型企业商业模式创新与经营绩效关系研究

商业模式创新对经营绩效的积极效用得到了广泛关注,但对二者内在逻辑关系的认识仍需深化。基于双元能力视角,探讨制造型企业商业模式创新与经营绩效的内在联系,运用192家制造型中小企业数据分析发现,因效率边界作用,效率型商业模式创新与经营绩效呈倒U型关系,而由于新颖效应,新颖型商业模式创新与经营绩效关系为U型;双元能力在效率型商业模式创新与经营绩效的倒U型关系,以及新颖型商业模式创新与经营绩效的U型关系中都发挥正向调节效应。     

The farm, the city, and the emergence of social security

We study the social, demographic and economic origins of social security. The data for the U.S. and for a cross section of countries suggest that urbanization and industrialization are associated with the rise of social insurance. We describe an OLG model in which demographics, technology, and social security are linked together in a political economy equilibrium. In the model economy, there are two locations (sectors), the farm (agricultural) and the city (industrial) and the decision to migrate from rural to urban locations is endogenous and linked to productivity differences between the two locations and survival probabilities. Farmers rely on land inheritance for their old age and do not support a pay-as-you-go social security system. With structural change, people migrate to the city, the land loses its importance and support for social security arises. We show that a calibrated version of this economy, where social security taxes are determined by majority voting, is consistent with the historical transformation in the United States.     

ARDL bounds tests and robust inference for the long run relationship between real stock returns and inflation in Australia

This paper conducts an empirical investigation into the long run relationship between real stock returns and inflation in Australia by employing the ARDL bounds tests. There exists a stock return–inflation long run relationship, and the long run parameters are non-linear functions of those of the conditional error correction model. The OLS estimates of the latter model constitute the long run parameter estimates and their standard errors are estimated by delta methods. The long run model estimates so constructed can be biassed and inconsistent, and the delta method is derived assuming asymptotic normality, which does not hold in this investigation. In this paper, to overcome these limitations of the traditional methods, we employ the bias-corrected bootstrap method. As a consequence, the robust and reliable statistical inference can be made on the long run return–inflation relationship. The empirical results show that the expected inflation had no significant effect on real stock returns, while the observed inflation had a significant and negative effect. Furthermore, the data generating process of the returns–inflation relationship was not affected by the change in monetary policy regime in the early 1990s. These findings imply that Australian stocks have been very effective instruments for hedging against expected inflation. Because of the resilience of Australian economy to the current global financial and economic crisis, this finding has implications for long term domestic and foreign investors in Australia.     

The U.S. Social Security System: What Does Political Sustainability Imply?

This paper examines how political constraints can shape the social security system under different demographics. A steady-state mapping between relevant economic and demographic variables and the social security tax rate resulting from a majority voting is provided. I calibrate an OLG model to the U.S. economy. Calculations using census population and survival probabilities projections and 1961–96 labor productivity growth deliver a social security tax rate of 13.3% (currently 11.2%) and a 54% replacement ratio (51.7%). This result reflects the median voter's aging, from 44 to 46 years, which dominates the decrease in the dependency ratio, from 5.45 to 4.72. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: H55, E17, D72.     

Fair Accumulation under Risky Lifetime

Individuals save for their old days, but not all of them enjoy the old age. This paper characterizes the optimal capital accumulation in a two‐period OLG model where lifetime is risky and varies across individuals. We compare two long‐run social optima: (1) the average utilitarian optimum, where steady‐state average welfare is maximized; (2) the egalitarian optimum, where the welfare of the worst‐off at the steady‐state is maximized. It is shown that, under plausible conditions, the egalitarian optimum involves a higher capital and a lower fertility than the utilitarian optimum. Those inequalities hold also in a second‐best framework where survival conditions are exogenously linked to the capital level.     

A Dynamic Incentive‐Based Argument for Conditional Transfers*

We compare the long‐run effects of replacing unconditional transfers to the poor by transfers conditional on the education of children. Unlike Mirrlees’ income taxation model, the distribution of skill evolves endogenously. Human capital accumulation follows the Freeman–Ljungqvist–Mookherjee–Ray OLG model with missing capital markets and dynastic bequest motives. Conditional transfers (funded by taxes on earnings of the skilled) are shown to induce higher long‐run output per capita and (both utilitarian and Rawlsian) welfare, owing to their superior effect on skill accumulation incentives. The result is established both with two skill levels, and a continuum of occupations.     

农村社会保障与农村居民消费的关系——基于中国数据的经验分析

多角度对中国农村社会保障支出与农村居民消费支出的关系进行实证研究,并运用推导均衡弹性进行估算长期均衡弹性.分析表明,短期内农村社会保障总体上对居民消费具有挤出效应,局部地区存在差异性,长期而言农村社会保障总体和局部对居民消费均起到正向促进作用.     

Do the Rich Save More? Evidence from Canada

This paper provides new evidence on the long‐standing question of whether more affluent households save a larger fraction of their income. The major difficulty in empirically assessing the relationship between incomes and saving rates is to construct a credible proxy for long‐run income—purged of transitory fluctuations and measurement error. The Canadian Family Expenditure Survey provides us with both unusually good data on savings rates and potential predictors with which we can construct reliable long‐run income proxies. Our empirical analysis suggests that the estimated relationship between saving rates and long‐run incomes is sensitive to the predictor used to proxy long‐run income. Nevertheless, our preferred estimates indicate that, except for poorest households (who simply do not save), saving rates do not differ substantially across predicted long‐run income groups.     

GROWTH IN THE SHADOWS: EFFECT OF THE SHADOW ECONOMY ON U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH OVER MORE THAN A CENTURY

Taking a long‐term look at U.S. economic growth over 1870–2014, this paper focuses on the spillovers from the shadow or the unofficial economy to growth in the official sector. Shadow activities might spur or retard economic growth depending on their interactions with the formal sector and impacts on the provision of public goods. Nesting the analysis in a standard neoclassical growth model, we use a relatively new time series technique to estimate the short‐run dynamics and long‐run relationship between economic growth and its determinants. Results suggest that prior to World War II (WWII) the shadow economy had a negative effect on economic growth; however, post‐WWII the shadow economy was beneficial for growth. The sanding effect of the shadow economy in the earlier period is especially robust to alternate considerations of possible endogeneity and an alternate set of growth determinants. (JEL E26, O43, O51, K42)     

Educational choice, endogenous inequality and economic development

This paper investigates the mechanics through which wealth may, in the long run, trickle down from the rich to the poor. In the presence of indivisibilities in investment of human capital and impossibility of borrowing money, investment in education is financed through an intergenerational transfer. In an OLG model where aggregate production requires capital and both skilled and unskilled labor, it is shown that the long run equilibrium outcome depends on the values of few key parameters. A complete characterization of the steady state is provided. Under some configurations of the parameter values a unique invariant equilibrium exists where inequality vanishes asymptotically. Under others, multiple equilibria exist and the equilibrium outcome crucially depends on the initial conditions of the system. These equilibria are characterized by a negative relationship between inequality and economic development.     

Offshoring and skill overlap: An empirical investigation

Conventional international trade theory predicts that bilateral offshoring flows will be highest when two countries have very different relative factor endowments. In contrast, the new trade theory contends that offshoring is more likely to exist when countries’ relative factor endowments are similar. This paper empirically tests the relationship between offshoring and relative factor endowments, measured by the skill overlap index between two countries and finds evidence that there is an inverted U‐shape relationship. Our empirical results predict that the rise in educational attainment in China will motivate U.S. multinationals to send their tasks to China in the short run; over the long run, however, U.S. multinationals will have fewer incentives to send their tasks to China. This finding sheds new light on the current trade tensions between the United States and China and has implications for trade policy.     

Growth,intergenerational welfare,and environmental policies in an overlapping generations economy

This paper examines the effects of the environmental tax on long‐run growth and intergenerational welfare in a discrete‐time overlapping generations (OLG ) model. We highlight that the role regarding how the environmental tax revenues are distributed between the young or old generations has important implications for the growth and welfare effects. Our results indicate that raising the environmental tax can exert different effects on the environmental utility of the existing young and old generations, implying an intergenerational welfare conflict of the environmental policy. However, if tax revenues are distributed appropriately, our numerical simulation shows that it is possible for a higher environmental tax to improve the welfare of all generations.     

中国土地财政的社会福利效应*——基于森（Sen）的可行能力理论

本文基于森（Sen）的可行能力理论,运用模糊数学与因子分析法测度中国2004-2013年31个省份社会福利指数,并分析社会福利与土地财政关系。通过理论与实证检验研究发现：第一,沿海城市社会福利指数相对较高,且透明性担保、社会机会、经济条件、防护性保障和政治自由对社会福利指数贡献率呈递增的趋势。第二,东部沿海地区土地财政收入绝对值与相对值远超西部地区,且各地区社会福利与土地财政二者呈脱钩现象。第三,各地区社会福利指数之间存在正的空间相关性,且各省社会福利指数存在空间集聚与扩散现象。最后,利用空间动态面板模型实证检验发现,地方政府土地财政收入占比与社会福利之间呈倒U型曲线。     

FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND INCOME IN AFRICAN COUNTRIES

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between financial system development and economic development. Using cointegration and vector autoregressive estimations on annual data from Africa, we examine the nature of the relationship between financial development and income. We find mixed results on both the short‐ and the long‐run relationships between the two variables. We find finance causing income, income causing finance, and bidirectional causality. The results indicate that neither the short‐run effects nor the long‐run relationship seem to linearly depend on the level of financial development or the stage of development. (JEL E44, O16, G20)