繁荣态势资本市场的经济增长效应

为便于分析,笔者假定:(1)经济中只有资本市场发生变化并与消费需求发生联系,其他任何因素都不变。(2)资本市场分为两类:一类是繁荣态势资本市场,表现为运行态势平稳,秩序良好,交投活跃,资产价格持续上升,投资回报丰厚,市场规模扩大等;另一类是萧条态势资本市场,表现为波动剧烈,秩序混乱,人气不旺,资产价格持续下跌,投资回报率低,市场规模萎缩等。一般来说,一个经济变量的变动如果使消费需求趋于扩张,会引导经济活动增加总供给,从而对经济增长产生正效应;反之则相反。因此我们可以从理论上认为消费需求变动和经济增长效应变动是同方向的。     

对古今中外价值理论的系统梳理——读何炼成教授的《价值学说史》（修订版）

何炼成教授的《价值学说史》（修订版）2006年12月由商务印书馆出版了,全书分为五大篇,一个附录,共计60余万字。本书分别对中国古近代思想家的价格理论、西欧古近代思想家的价格观和价值观、马克思和恩格斯的科学劳动价值理论、西方近代各流派的价值理论、当代西方经济学的价值理论进行了研究。     

论微观调节成本与市场均衡就业区间

按照标准的宏观经济分析，在现代市场经济条件下，社会就业水平取决于总供给价格与总需求价格的对比，总供给价格与总需求价格的均衡点决定实际的社会就业量。这一理论，可以说是指导现代各国政府制定短期需求管理政策以实现充分就业目标的基本理论之一。但在这一分析中，...     

古今中外价值理论的系统梳理——读何炼成教授的《价值学说史》(修订版)

何炼成教授的<价值学说史>(修订版)2006年12月由商务印书馆出版了,全书分为五大篇,一个附录,共计60余万字.本书分别对中国古近代思想家的价格理论、西欧古近代思想家的价格观和价值观、马克思和恩格斯的科学劳动价值理论、西方近代各流派的价值理论、当代西方经济学的价值理论进行了研究.     

中国货币政策调控效率与政策工具最优选择——基于DSGE模型的分析

本文通过构建DSGE模型,采用贝叶斯方法对中国货币政策反应函数进行估计,并结合数量型与价格型调控工具的动态模拟分析和调控效率数值分析以系统考察不同类型货币政策工具面临经济冲击时的调控效率,最后据此遴选出最优政策工具.研究结论认为:价格型货币政策框架较数量型能更有效地吸收总需求和总供给冲击带来的影响,引致经济均衡偏离程度最小;价格型货币政策框架下外生冲击引致的宏观经济波动较小,经济偏离的稳态收敛速度也明显快于数量型;无论是面临总需求冲击抑或总供给冲击,价格型工具的货币调控效率均明显高于数量型工具.为此,本文认为“十三五规划”关于推进货币政策从以数量型调控为主向以价格型调控为主转型的战略具有可行性和必要性,未来央行应强化价格型工具调控;同时,央行可适当将提高宏观调控效率作为今后货币政策调控的基本要求和政策取向.     

成本冲击、通货膨胀与货币政策——基于总供给-总需求框架的实证分析

本文系统地回顾了有关中国通货膨胀的文献,我们发现,现有的研究通常偏重于数据挖掘,而忽视了普适性宏观经济理论的约束,因而所得出的结论其经济学含义值得商榷。尽管总供给-总需求框架是十分简洁的宏观分析框架,但是很少有人用它的具体方程来推导通货膨胀的决定式,并将所得来的决定式用之进行中国的实证分析,使理论研究与实证分析相互印证。本文创新性地在总供给-总需求框架下,首先对封闭经济下的通货膨胀成因做了较为深入分析,接着将模型推广到开放经济中以获得计量上可估的线性方程,并利用中国的数据进行了实证分析。结果表明,中国通胀的形成是由供给面和需求面两方面因素共同决定的,这也在数量上验证了总供给-总需求框架在中国的适用性。其中,产出缺口增大、劳动力增速放缓、货币增速变大、人民币实际有效汇率同比增速减缓、大宗商品价格增速走高都显著性地导致通胀率的抬升,且它们对于通货膨胀的影响的显现具有一定的时滞性。鉴于此,我们建议,当经济体遭遇供给冲击(刘易斯拐点、大宗商品价格高企等)时,货币政策尤其需要审慎,以避免因刺激性宏观政策形成成本推动与需求拉动相互强化所导致的螺旋式价格上涨。     

简析当今经济危机与金融泡沫

文章在回顾和总结前人对经济危机的理论解释基础上,从经济细胞商品入手,来分析经济危机发生的原因。经济波动、金融泡沫产生和破裂以及经济金融危机归根到底就是由于总需求和总供给状况引起,是经济细胞商品的价格由于供求状况围绕价值上下波动的一个延伸和发展。     

中国股指期货具有价格发现功能吗?

为检验中国资本市场股指期货是否具有价格发现功能,本文在对股指期货与现货指数间的理论关系进行深入阐述的基础上,分别根据所建立的向量自回归模型参数估计结果以及脉冲响应函数,分析股指期货与现货指数两者间的领先—滞后关系。基于理论分析框架进行实证检验,结果发现:中国股指期货具有价格发现功能,但现阶段这一功能并不强;当股票市场处于下跌态势时,股指期货的价格发现功能要稍强于股票市场呈现上升态势时的情形。同时,当股票市场处于下跌态势时,季月合约的价格发现功能要强于近月合约的价格发现功能,而股票市场处于上升态势时,近月合约与季月合约的价格发现功能并没有呈现出明显差异。     

城市化进程中土地供给的价格机制探讨

城市化进程中土地总供给呈不断增加的趋势,各级、各类土地市场的供给与价格却波动频繁。从理论上看,城市土地供给的价格机制主要有理想状态与供给变异两种形式。对土地总供给和各类市场供给价格机制的实证分析表明:城市化进程的推进并未伴随着土地价格的上升,价格的波动也难以对土地供给起到调节作用。理论与现实差异的原因在于土地交易的市场化程度较低,缺乏应有的价格竞争机制。     

我国宏观动态分析中的普遍短缺程度指标

<正> 在传统计划经济中通常存在着普遍的短缺。普遍的短缺意味着整个经济中事前的名义总需求大于按合法价格计算的名义总供给。当传统计划经济向市场经济转变时,过渡到由市场供求关系自由地决定价格会消除普遍的短缺。在我国的经济改革过程中,由于物价是在相当长的     

Oil Prices, Terms of Trade Shocks, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Saudi Arabia

The article investigates the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in Saudi Arabia using structural vector autoregression methods and pays particular attention to oil prices and changes in terms of trade. Using a macroeconomic model tailored to the Saudi Arabian economy, the authors identify terms of trade, supply, balance of payments, aggregate demand, and monetary shocks. The results show that the Saudi Arabian price level, real exchange rate, and to a lesser extent output is vulnerable to terms of trade shocks. Moreover, Saudi Arabian terms of trade are driven by output, trade balance, and aggregate demand shocks. To stabilize output and the real exchange rate, Saudi Arabia ought to continue diversifying its production base and aim for a stable nominal oil price. (JEL E32 , Q43 , C22 )     

Towards a better estimation of agricultural supply elasticity: the case of soya beans in Brazil

Brazil is a major exporter of several agricultural commodities and has shown strong interest in agricultural trade negotiations. For several commodities, trade liberalization is expected to be followed by farmgate prices increase and to boost domestic production. However, in a country as big as Brazil, possible supply responses to price increase will probably strongly differ from one region to another. This article focuses on soya beans for which Brazil became a top exporter. The panel data technique is used to estimate the soy bean supply response at national and regional level. Soya bean supply is shown to be very price elastic. Moreover, soya bean supply own price elasticity is much higher in the Center-North regions than in the South of the country. Substitution between livestock and soya bean is also very significant in the Center-North region. World agricultural trade models should take account for such regional variability of soya bean supply elasticity. The results also allow us to discuss the issue of soya bean expansion at the Amazon border.     

Trade and market selection: Evidence from manufacturing plants in Colombia

We examine the link between trade liberalization and aggregate productivity, with a focus on improved market selection resulting from a reduction in trade barriers and in the dispersion of these barriers across producers. Our analysis exploits tariff changes across sectors after the Colombian trade reform. An additional advantage of our analysis is that our TFP measure does not include demand and price effects. We find that reduced trade protection makes plant survival depend more closely on productivity. Using a dynamic simulation, we find that enhanced selection increases aggregate productivity substantially. Trade liberalization also increases productivity of incumbent plants and improves the allocation of activity. We find larger effects on allocative efficiency with our TFP measure than with a traditional measure including price effects.     

Choice of currency basket weights and its implications on trade balance

This paper seeks to find an optimal choice of currency basket weights for emerging economies that peg their currencies to a currency basket, and to examine the long-run relationship between the real exchange rates of a group of trading partners. A general equilibrium model is set up to establish an optimal set of currency basket weights, coupled with the choice of fiscal policy, to simultaneously stabilize trade balance and aggregate price level of an economy. This optimal set of weights is a weighted average of two sets of weights; each targets at one policy goal (stabilizing either balance of trade or aggregate price level) at a time. Empirical studies including vector autoregression (VAR) analysis and cointegration analysis on the long-run relationship between the Thai baht and the real exchange rates of its major trading partners are presented.     

产业内贸易类型、利益与经济增长

在分析产业内贸易测度、分类及其利益的基础上,探讨产业内贸易促进经济增长的机制,并从产业内贸易总水平、垂直差异型产业内贸易、水平差异型产业内贸易等角度实证分析其对中国经济增长的影响。研究发现:垂直差异性产业内贸易在经济增长过程中起着促进作用,而水平差异性产业内贸易对经济增长起着阻碍作用。     

The response of aggregate demand to income,money supply,and price level

The response elasticities of (nominal) aggregate demand to the price level and to other nominal variables (e.g., money supply) are both positive but smaller than one. Aggregate demand is less/as responsive to real income than/as to the price level in the short/long run. Real aggregate demand is less/as responsive to real income than/as nominal aggregate demand is to the price level in the short/long run. Some uses of these results are indicated.     

The role of price and nonprice factors in predicting Australia's trade performance

This article investigates the role of price and nonprice factors in predicting Australia's trade performance. Results broadly suggest that Australia's trade performance is largely explained by the nonprice factors namely, R&D, reliability of domestic supply, aggregate world demand and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows in long run. Price factors such as, relative price of Australian exports and domestic prices are also important predictors of trade competitiveness. The policy implications of these findings are that there are dividends in terms of improved trade performance by encouraging R&D expenditure, attracting FDI, improving domestic supply and implementing appropriate policies to improve price competitiveness.     

Adjustment costs and factor demands in Canadian manufacturing industries

This paper examines whether there is a relationship between the commodity terms of trade (the price of primary commodities relative to the price of manufactures) and the net barter terms of trade of 42 Sub-Saharan African countries. For most countries, there is little evidence of a stable, long-run relationship between the two terms of trade series. Accordingly, the practice in the literature of proxying for movements in any given country's terms of trade by using an aggregate index of relative commodity prices is inappropriate, and is likely to engender misleading policy conclusions.     

Euro area,oil and global shocks: An empirical model-based analysis

We assess the impact of oil shocks on euro-area (EA) macroeconomic variables by estimating with Bayesian methods a two-country New Keynesian model of EA and rest of the world (RW). Oil price is determined according to supply and demand conditions in the world oil market. We obtain the following results. First, a 10% increase in the international price of oil generates an increase of about 0.1 annualized percentage points in EA consumer price inflation. Second, the same increase in the oil price generates a decrease in EA gross domestic product (GDP) of around 0.1% and a trade deficit, if it is due to negative oil supply or positive oil-specific demand shocks. Third, it generates a mild EA GDP increase and a trade surplus if due to a positive RW aggregate demand shock. Fourth, the increase in the oil price over the 2004–2008 period did not induce stagflationary effects on the EA economy because it was associated with positive RW aggregate demand shocks. The drop in RW aggregate demand contributes to explain the 2008 fall in oil prices, EA GDP and inflation.     

基于协整理论货币供应量与经济增长、物价水平关系研究

利用货币供应量与经济增长、物价水平之间关系的经典理论,从长期和短期两方面对我国的货币供应量与经济增长、物价水平关系进行实证研究,得到三者之间存在协整关系的结论。在此基础上检验了Granger因果关系,建立了误差修正模型,并从脉冲响应和方差分解的角度来分析货币供给对经济增长、物价水平的影响。验证结果表明,货币供给增长率与经济增长率存在双向因果关系,同时我国货币存在内生性,货币供应量的增长主要反映在物价水平上。