Testing for horizontal and vertical foreign investment spillovers in China, 1998–2007

As with many developing countries, the Chinese government hopes that knowledge brought by multinationals will spill over to domestic industries and increase their productivity. In this paper, we show that foreign investment originating outside of Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan has positive effects on individual firm level productivity, while foreign investment from HKMT firms does not. We also test for both horizontal (within the same industry) and vertical (upstream or downstream) linkages from foreign investment. Using a manufacturing firm-level panel for 1998 through 2007, we find zero or weak positive horizontal externalities. However, our results show that foreign direct investment (FDI) has generated positive productivity spillovers to domestic firms via backward linkages (the contacts between foreign affiliates and their local suppliers in downstream sectors) as well as forward linkages (between foreign suppliers and their local buyers in the upstream sectors).     

Exporting versus Direct Investment under Local Sourcing

This paper examines a setting where foreign direct investment (FDI) shifts demand for an intermediate good from the source to the host country. A domestic and a foreign firm choose between exports or FDI, always sourcing the intermediate locally. We show that by increasing the price of the intermediate, outward FDI can act as a cost-raising strategy for a firm and that attracting FDI can raise host country welfare. Two-way FDI is the equilibrium when the countries have similar market sizes. However, such FDI reduces global welfare relative to two-way exporting since it eliminates indirect competition between suppliers. JEL no. F12, F13, F23, L13     

Do Chinese domestic firms benefit from FDI inflow?: Evidence of horizontal and vertical spillovers

Using a large panel dataset covering all manufacturing firms (above a minimum scale) in China from 1998 to 2005, this paper examines whether there exist productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI) to domestic firms. In estimating productivity, we control for a possible simultaneity bias by using semi-parametric estimation techniques. We find that Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan (HMT) invested firms generate negative horizontal spillovers, while Non-HMT foreign invested firms (mostly from OECD countries) tend to bring positive horizontal spillovers in China. These two opposing horizontal effects seem to cancel out at the aggregate level. We also find strong and robust vertical spillover effects on both state-owned firms and non-state firms. However, vertical spillover effects from export-oriented FDI are weaker than those from domestic-market-oriented FDI.     

Export spillover from foreign direct investment in China during pre- and post-WTO accession

This study investigates the effects of export spillover from foreign direct investment (FDI) before and after China’s World Trade Organization (WTO) accession, with particular consideration of the FDI source country and firm ownership structure. It uses a Chinese manufacturing firm-level panel dataset, for the period 1998–2007. In general, there are no spillover effects among state-owned enterprises (SOEs). This study finds negative horizontal and positive vertical spillovers associated with FDI from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan (HMT) among non-SOEs. Furthermore, non-HMT FDI, which is predominantly from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, have statistically significant positive horizontal and vertical spillover effects on the export performance of private Chinese firms. Positive forward spillovers occurred only after China joined the WTO, while positive backward spillovers existed during both the pre- and post-WTO periods. China’s entry into the WTO intensified the forward linkage of production, implying that greater availability of high-quality inputs produced by non-HMT foreign multinationals benefited the export performance of private domestic firms.     

FDI and Innovation: An Investigation into Intra- and Inter-industry Effects

It is often believed that transfer of technology and know-how resulting from foreign direct investment (FDI) goes beyond the actual projects undertaken by foreign investors and, spills over to domestic firms affecting their knowledge base and productivity. This paper is an endeavour to investigate the existence of spillovers and their impact on the innovative performance of domestic firms active in the manufacturing sector of India. By employing data on FDI by industry and merging it with information on time-variant buyer–supplier linkages obtained from a series of national input–outputs tables, the study develops intra-industry and inter-industry measures to capture the effects of FDI on innovation performance of the incumbent firms’ active in the same sector as the MNC and in upstream and downstream sectors. The econometric analysis after accounting for endogeneity issues reveals that FDI has a moderate impact on innovative performance of firms residing in identical industries. However, impact on the innovative performance of firms in supplying sectors appears to be statistically strong.     

FDI的前后向关联和中国制造业企业生产率的提升——基于地理距离的研究

本文采用微观企业面板数据,运用投入产出表构建前后向关联指标,引入基于地理距离的空间权重矩阵,探讨FDI是否通过前后向的关联提升了中国制造业企业的生产率.研究发现,就全国范围看,FDI通过前向关联,提高了我国企业的生产率,但没有通过后向关联对企业生产率有所影响.纳入地理距离因素后,外资的前向关联技术外溢效应仍存在,但数值...     

Spillovers from foreign direct investment in services: Evidence at sub-sectoral level for the Asia-Pacific

We take a sectoral level approach to analyzing the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. We disaggregate FDI first by manufacturing versus services, then within services by financial services, trade services, and business services. We consider the effects of FDI inflows on growth of GDP per capita, then distinguish between growth in manufacturing and services value added per capita. Our data sample comprises 14 Asia Pacific economies for the period 1985–2012 to which we apply a dynamic panel generalized method of moments estimation technique. Services FDI as a whole is found to have a significantly positive impact on GDP growth while manufacturing FDI is found to have no effect. The impetus for growth from services FDI traces to financial services in particular, acting not only directly on service sector output but through manufacturing sector output as well. By contrast, trade services FDI is found to have a significantly negative effect on manufacturing output with no significant effect on services output. Foreign participation in trade services may act to expose domestic manufacturers to international competition and may also lead to domestic consolidation to take advantage of economies of scale.     

Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Performance: the Italian Manufacturing and Services Sectors

How does outward foreign direct investment (FDI) affect employment and productivity growth in the home country? Does the impact of outward investment differ among manufacturing and service sectors? In this paper we analyze the effects of investing abroad using firm-level data for Italy for the period 2003–2006. We adopt matching techniques in combination with a difference-in-difference estimator in order to investigate the causal effect of becoming multinational on domestic employment and productivity. Preliminary results suggest that Italian outward FDI has limited effects on domestic employment and performance of internationalizing firms on average. However, results significantly differ depending on the sector (manufacturing versus services) where the MNEs are operating. In particular, we find that while in the manufacturing sector, outward FDI tends to strengthen both productivity and, to less extent, employment. In the service sector, we find a negative effect on employment (two years after the investment).     

Which firms benefit from foreign direct investment? Empirical evidence from Indonesian manufacturing

Despite growing concern regarding the productivity benefits of foreign direct investment (FDI), very few studies have been conducted on the impact of FDI on firm-level technical efficiency. This study helps fill this gap by empirically examining the spillover effects of FDI on the technical efficiency of Indonesian manufacturing firms. A panel data stochastic production frontier (SPF) method is applied to 3318 firms surveyed over the period 1988–2000. The results reveal evidence of positive FDI spillovers on technical efficiency. Interesting differences emerge however when the samples are divided into two efficiency levels. High-efficiency domestic firms receive negative spillovers, in general, while low-efficiency firms gain positive spillovers. These findings justify the hypothesis of efficiency gaps, that the larger is the efficiency gap between domestic and foreign firms the easier the former extracts spillover benefits from the latter.     

The role of foreign direct investment in Indonesia's manufacturing exports

This article examines whether foreign direct investment (FDI) has contributed to the changing structure of Indonesia's manufacturing exports. It uses industry-level data from 1990 to 2008, classified by factor intensity. Our analysis reveals that FDI promotes exports in most panel observations, especially exports from physical-capital-intensive (PCI), human-capital-intensive (HCI) and technology-intensive (TI) industries. Yet by applying a differentiated cross-section-effect model, we determine that the export-generating potential of FDI is stronger in PCI, HCI and TI industries than in natural-resource-intensive or unskilled-labour-intensive industries, in which Indonesia has a comparative advantage. We also assess the influence of other determinants of export performance – namely, private domestic capital investment, GDP growth and exchange rates. Our findings have implications for policymakers seeking to sustain Indonesia's export performance.     

劳动力供给、生产率与外商直接投资工资外溢效应

本文利用中国1999-2007年441个四位码工业行业数据,考察外商直接投资在产业内部和产业之间,通过直接影响劳动力市场供给方式和间接生产率外溢方式对中国内资行业的工资外溢效应。研究结果表明:(1)外商直接投资(FDI)通过直接和间接方式对中国内资行业工资在产业内部和产业之间都产生了显著的正向外溢效应;(2)国有行业比重提高会显著促进FDI通过劳动力供给方式对内资行业产生工资外溢效应,但同样会显著阻碍FDI通过间接的生产率外溢方式对内资行业产生工资外溢效应;(3)FDI对内资劳动密集型行业的工资外溢效应显著高于资本密集型行业,FDI进入显著缩小了中国不同劳动生产率工业部门的工资收入差距。     

比较优势动态转换与产业升级——基于中国制造业发展指标的国际比较

通过对国内外比较优势与产业升级理论的梳理,创新性地将其概括为比较优势动态转换的三条途径与产业升级的四个维度,并将二者结合起来,构建中国制造业比较优势动态转换与产业升级的理论框架,对中国制造业发展指标进行国际比较研究,得到如下结论:从垂直结构升级考察,中国制造业呈现全方位崛起的态势,完成了从低端产业向高端产业的升级;从水平结构升级考察,依据进口中间品国内配套增值率指数测算,中国制造业国内集成配套能力较强,但依据进出口中间品增值率指数测算,中国制造业在全球价值链中分工地位较低;从产业效率考察,中国制造业技术效率世界领先;而全要素生产率及其分解显示,中国制造业技术进步水平还存在较大的差距;从产业效益考察,中国制造业增加值率低下,但作为增加值构成要素的税收占比很高,中国制造业出口占总产值比重在世界排序较低,中国内需市场潜力巨大。     

Global production sharing and the FDI–trade nexus: New evidence from the Japanese automobile industry

The growing importance of global production sharing makes the nexus between outward foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade in intermediate goods ever more important. This study employs newly-constructed product-level data covering 32 products and 49 host countries over the period 1993–2008 and finds evidence that FDI by upstream firms leads to additional exports of intermediate goods from the home country. The finding of a complementary relationship between FDI and intermediate exports from Japan runs counter to the popular view that the growing overseas activity of multinational enterprises could replace intermediate exports from a home country, thereby depriving the home country of job opportunities.     

外资撤离速度与制造业转型升级——基于CGE对IT制造业的仿真分解分析

近年来，IT制造业等外资依赖性较强的产业面临的外资撤离风险不断升高，如何衡量和评估不同撤离速度下内资企业的发展稳定性和实现转型升级的支撑性?文章将CGE模型数值模拟与DEA分解分析相结合，考察不同外资撤离速度场景对IT制造业内资企业的影响，以及机制和路径。结果表明：1、当外资流入为0或者其存量以5%的速度小幅持续撤离时，内资企业受影响较小。较高的资本深化率、技术效率和技术进步使得其能够较快填补市场空白，具备企稳回升的能力；2、当外资存量以25%的较高速度撤离时，内资企业由于技术进步受到抑制，劳动生产率处于不可扭转的持续下滑趋势；3、外资企业在可见预期内仍然将是内资企业的主要技术进步来源，外资撤离会通过抑制内资企业技术进步，从而约束资本深化和技术效率的路径中对内资企业的稳定发展和转型升级产生负面影响。基于上述研究，文章提出相关政策启示和建议。     

Relationship between foreign capital flows,domestic investment and savings in the SADC region

The importance of foreign capital in the domestic economy cannot be underestimated as it bridges the gap between domestic capital demand and supply. Given this background the paper studies the relationship between the different types of foreign capital flows in the Southern Africa Development Region (SADC) region – foreign direct investment (FDI), remittances, cross border bank flows (CBF), overseas development assistance (ODA) – and domestic savings and investment, employing the panel cointegration test and the dynamic ordinary least squares method (DOLS). The empirical results reveal that there is a strong positive relationship between domestic investment and domestic savings, FDI and remittances. These findings indicate that FDI remittances help in overcoming the limits on the domestic capital formation in the SADC region through permitting a rate of investment which is in excess of that which can be generated by domestic savings. Important policy implications on attracting foreign capital flows are discussed in the paper.     

Are FDI spillovers regional? Firm-level evidence from China

This paper examines whether spillovers from FDI occur at the national or regional level, using firm-level census data for the Chinese manufacturing industry between 2000 and 2003. We find that FDI provides significant positive spillovers for the productivity of firms in the same industry, but these spillovers are likely to be regional; that is, domestic firms benefit more from the presence of foreign firms in the same sector within the same region. The backward and forward linkage effects of FDI are negative with significant regional disparity. The geographic distribution of FDI also influences spillovers, with an increase in FDI inflow to the top FDI recipient provinces increasing the forward linkage spillovers. Our empirical results also suggest that domestic firms differ significantly in the extent to which they benefit from FDI, though domestic firms with high absorptive capacity are more likely to benefit from FDI.     

Spoilt for choice? Multinational corporations and the geography of international production

This paper questions the view that foreign direct investment(FDI) is producing an integrated world production and tradingsystem. Although multinational firms have a greater choice oflocations than in the past, their recent investments abroadhave taken place within a regional, rather than global, framework.The upsurge of FDI flows from North to South has been attractedby just a handful of fast-growing developing countries. Thepaper disputes the claim that the road to development is forpoor countries to attract FDI on the scale observed in suchcountries as Malaysia. This claim involves a fallacy of composition.While FDI can make a valuable contribution, most countries willhave to rely mainly on their own resources and indigenous producers.The paper argues that current proposals for a Multilateral Agreementon Investment neglect both the regional aspects of integrationand the need of poorer countries to promote their domestic supplycapabilities. Conflicts of interest which are ignored in thecurrent rhetoric suggest the continuing relevance of a strategicpolicy approach to international production.     

FDI AND DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN TAIWAN: AN ENDOGENOUS SWITCHING MODEL

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of the FDI decision on domestic investment in the case of Taiwanese manufacturing firms. In addition, we also consider the deferral effect of the FDI decision and the role of firm size. To this end, this paper takes advantage of an endogenous switching model from which consistent estimators are obtained after correcting for the self‐selection problem. The empirical results show that the effect of these manufacturing firms’ FDI decisions on domestic investment is significant within the firms. Furthermore, a crowding‐out effect of FDI on domestic investment is found when Taiwanese firms engage in defensive FDI. Finally, FDI is found to have a positive influence on the domestic investment of the larger firms, while the influence is negative in the case of the smaller firms.     

Affiliates and parent employment through foreign direct investment: a study case of substitutability or complementarity

How does outward foreign direct investment (FDI) affect employment of multinationals in the home country? Does the impact of outward investment differ among manufacturing and service sectors? Using data on Italian MNEs, this paper examines the impact of Italian outward FDI on local employment between 1998 and 2006. In particular, we investigate the relationship existing between employment in the parent company and employment in foreign affiliates by distinguishing according to host-country location and sector of activity. The results suggest that the effects of Italian outward FDI on domestic employment differ according to the sector and the country of destination. In the manufacturing sector, a weak but significant relationship of labour substitutability is found for Italian MNEs producing low-technology products in foreign affiliates localized in high-wage countries. On the other hand, a significant North–south complementarity relationship in labour demands appears in the High and Medium-high- technology sectors. In the service sector, we find strong complementarity between employment in the parent firm and employment in foreign affiliates: in particular, this regards Italian MNEs producing knowledge-intensive services both in Western affiliates and CEEC locations. These results are robust when we control for endogeneity of output and parent wages.     

Foreign direct investment in China: Policy,recent trend and impact 1

One of the most important elements of China's economic reform has been the promotion of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow. Government polices on FDI have gone through different stages in their main objectives since the late‐1970s, from gradually opening to foreign investors, to actively encouraging inward investment, directing FDI in accordance with domestic industrial restructuring, and complying with China's World Trade Organization (WTO) obligations. FDI in China has experienced rapid growth especially since the mid‐1990s, as well as structural change. Most of the earlier investments were small scale, labor‐intensive and export‐oriented. In recent years, more investment has been large scale and more capital and technology intensive, aiming at both domestic and export markets. Moreover, increasingly more investment has come from the industrial world, and has located along the eastern coastal regions, in additional to the two southeastern provinces. FDI has played a crucial role in China's rapid growth, economic transition, and, mostly importantly, integration with the world. China's recent accession to the WTO provides more incentives to foreign investors. At the same time, it will also result in more intense competition for domestic firms.