从人口红利到改革红利 ——推动经济向高质量发展

改革开放40年以来我国的人口数量和质量都发生了重大的变化,当前,我国人口结构正处在历史拐点,经济发展进入中速发展区间,人口红利转向改革红利,是保持我国"十三五"期间及后续时期潜在经济增长率,坚持供给侧改革方向促进经济向高质量发展转变的重要时期。人口红利总是与特定的经济增长相契合,当前人口红利逐渐消失成为经济从高速增长向中低速增长转变的重要因素,实施更为积极的改革政策取向,挖掘和释放潜在的生产要素禀赋和全要素生产率的制度激励,可以促进和稳定经济增长。正确把握我国人口结构状态,调整经济发展动力从人口红利逐步向改革红利转变,对于我国经济向高质量发展有着至关重要的作用。     

红利释放的增长前景

中央经济工作会议首次把宏观调控直接融入改革中,提出“用改革的精神、思路、办法改善宏观调控”的基本思路,这意味着在宏观经济管理与重点经济工作安排上,改革的色彩明显增强。作为一个最大的转型国家,我国宏观经济运行中面临诸多方面的矛盾与问题,既有周期性因素,更有体制性因素;既有短期因素,更有中长期因素。因此,解决宏观经济运行中的突出矛盾与问题,不是一个简单的经济参数调整的问题,而需要对体制机制做出重大改革,2014年经济增长将在更大程度上受益于改革红利的释放。     

把握开放重大红利促进经济转型升级

党的十八届三中全会提出“构建开放型经济新体制”、“扩大金融业对内对外开放”,预示着我国将进一步提升对外开放水平,不断融入全球化,促进中国经济升级转型。     

今年“两会”老话题，新话题——央行高官谈金融热点

去年“两会”期间,焦点话题格外集中,就是如何应对全球金融危机,转眼一年过去了,全球经济发展进入后危机时代。今年的“两会”,焦点话题既分散又集中,诸如房价是堪称“两会”内外第一话题。而其他财经话题更是新老话题交织,反映出中国经济转型面临的挑战多多。在老话题中,人民币汇率无疑是以往7,至今后一段时问被长久关注的问题之一。虽是老话题,但解读也不乏新意,特别是权威机构的解读更是为人们所关注,围绕这些解读的网上议论也颇让人寻味（请看本栏目文章《央行高官谈金融热点》）。相对于其他财经话题,低碳经济在此次“两会”期间被集中谈及,算得上是新话题。而这个话题以往多在民间和学界被提及,《国际融资》杂志四年前就开始持续报道国际组织、国际金融机构的相关研究报告,以及金融机构与企业的绿色行动。此次“两会”,《国际融资》杂志记者特别就低碳经济采访了数位政协委员（请看本栏目文章《全国政协委员热议低碳经济》）     

体制红利与中国经济增长

2010年上半年的经济形势已非短期宏观经济分析方法所能解释,其间的诸多表象与潜在问题昭示着近10年中国原有经济发展方式--投资拉动和出口拉动--正在走向终结;亦昭示着中国新一轮以体制改革拉动经济繁荣的起点正在逐步形成.     

人口红利即将枯竭，中国何以面对

近期,中国社科院发布国家人口发展战略研究报告,认为我国正在由劳动力过剩向劳动力短缺的时代转变,这个转变的拐点将在"十一五"期间出现,确切的时间可能是在2009年.     

发展方式转型：人保寿险在新的起点上跨越

转变经济发展方式已经成为当今经济发展的重中之重,并且已经到了刻不容缓的地步,事实上,一场巨大的经济改革已经在中国大地悄然展开。     

依法治国是中国经济增长的新红利

中共十八届四中全会通过了《中共中央关于全面推进依法治国若干重大问题的决定》。《决定》明确提出“市场经济应该是法治经济,和谐社会应该是法治社会。要解决经济、社会、民生领域存在的突出问题,从根本上讲还要靠法治,靠全面推进依法治国。”从法治政府建设到全面依法治国,在面对“新常态”的挑战下,走一条中国特色社会主义的法治道路成为决策共识。     

金融改革开放红利将助推中国经济发展

党的十八大报告指出,“改革开放是坚持和发展中国特色社会主义的必由之路”自改革开放以来,我国在经济、政治、社会发展等各个领域所取得的巨大进步和成就,得到了国际社会的高度评价和赞誉、但我们仍应清醒地认识到,我国经济现正处于转变经济增长方式的重要转型阶段,面·临着各个方面的挑战．包括经济发展所需能源和资源的可持续性、环境的保护和改善、城镇化过程中的诸多问题、人口红利消失及老龄化社会的来临等等、面对以上挑战,没有其它选择和出路,     

对原平市经济转型发展的思考

山西省是我国最主要的能源重化工基地,本文以具有典型重化工经济特征的原平市为例,就如何实现县域经济转型提出了相应的建议。     

现金股利研究的新视角:基于企业生命周期理论

论文选取2000～2006年A股非金融行业上市公司为样本,首先采用专门方法来区分企业所处的生命周期阶段,然后采用多元回归、参数检验、非参数检验来检验上市公司是否会根据企业所处的生命周期阶段调整其现金股利政策,不同生命周期阶段的企业在现金股利支付意向及现金股利支付率是否存在显著差异.结果表明,我国上市公司的确会基于不同的生命周期采取不同的股利政策,但会受到证监会配股增发政策的影响.     

Dividend Policy in Switzerland

The paper examines dividend policy for a sample of Swiss companies. Several factors that determine cross-sectional variations in dividend policy – such as profitability, growth opportunities, and riskiness – are identified. Price volatility seems to stand out as the most significant factor. Looking at the relationship between dividends and earnings over time, dividend changes are more closely linked to past and current rather than future net income growth. However, they do confirm a persistent shift in the level of earnings. There is also a significant relationship between losses and dividend cuts. These findings suggest that it is the managers’ reluctance to cut dividends that gives informational content to dividend changes.     

日益得宠的表外业务

爱立信事件 将来人们谈起中国金融业对外开放进程的时候,"爱立信事件"是不能被忽略的.南京爱立信是目前南京最大的外商投资企业,南京"爱立信事件"中的主角是其下属两个企业之一的南京爱立信熊猫通信有限公司.这家公司被交通银行南京分行称为"为数不多的优质客户之一".在外经贸部公布的2000年-2001年度中国外资企业500强中,按企业的销售收入排名,南京爱立信熊猫通信有限公司名列第八.     

盐田港12年派现路

分析盐田港12年的发展历程,可以看出,其股利政策具有一定的特点,考量股利政策的合理性、可持续性,或许能够发现股利派现对公司价值的影响。     

Dividend Imputation and Shareholder Wealth: The Case of New Zealand

On April 1, 1988, New Zealand stopped the double taxation of dividends by implementing a full dividend imputation program. Because many believed that the tax advantage of debt had led to more highly leveraged firms subject to greater financial risk than was socially optimal, it was hoped the removal of incentives to finance with debt would result in a more efficient allocation of capital. The empirical results suggest that the shareholder wealth gain from dividend imputation was more than offset in firms with large debt levels. Moreover, an examination of debt ratios indicates debt levels declined in the post–imputation period.     

Dividend Dynamics and the Term Structure of Dividend Strips

Many leading asset pricing models are specified so that the term structure of dividend volatility is either flat or upward sloping. These models predict that the term structures of expected returns and volatilities on dividend strips (i.e., claims to dividends paid over a prespecified interval) are also upward sloping. However, the empirical evidence suggests otherwise. This discrepancy can be reconciled if these models replace their proposed dividend dynamics with processes that generate stationary leverage ratios. Under such policies, shareholders are forced to divest (invest) when leverage is low (high), which shifts risk from long‐ to short‐horizon dividend strips.     

The Dividend Disconnect

Many individual investors, mutual funds, and institutions trade as if dividends and capital gains are disconnected attributes, not fully appreciating that dividends result in price decreases. Behavioral trading patterns (e.g., the disposition effect) are driven by price changes instead of total returns. Investors rarely reinvest dividends, and trade as if dividends are a separate, stable income stream. Analysts fail to account for the effect of dividends on price, leading to optimistic price forecasts for dividend‐paying stocks. Demand for dividends is systematically higher in periods of low interest rates and poor market performance, leading to lower returns for dividend‐paying stocks.     

Time-Series Variation in Dividend Pricing

Ex-dividend day returns vary over time. The ex-day returns of high-yield stocks are persistently positive for some time periods and negative for others; in contrast, ex-day returns of low-yield stocks are always positive and less variable. We are unable to explain the variation with changes in the tax code, but we do find a strong effect for the introduction of negotiated commissions. We find evidence that corporate dividend capturing is affecting ex-day returns and confirm the findings of Gordon and Bradford (1980) that the price of dividends is countercyclical.     

Local Dividend Clienteles

We exploit demographic variation to identify the effect of dividend demand on corporate payout policy. Retail investors tend to hold local stocks and older investors prefer dividend‐paying stocks. Together, these tendencies generate geographically varying demand for dividends. Firms headquartered in areas in which seniors constitute a large fraction of the population are more likely to pay dividends, initiate dividends, and have higher dividend yields. We also provide indirect evidence as to why managers may respond to the demand for dividends from local seniors. Overall, these results are consistent with the notion that the investor base affects corporate policy choices.