Incentive regulation and investment: evidence from European energy utilities

This paper investigates the relationship between investment and regulatory regimes (incentive vs. rate-of-return regulation) for a sample of EU energy utilities from 1997 to 2007. We control for the effect of firm ownership and for cross-country differences in the underlying energy demand and energy supply. To deal with potential endogeneity of the regulatory regime, we apply instrumental variable methods (2SLS and GMM). Our results show that investment rate is higher under incentive regulation than under rate of return regulation. Using original data on the regulatory tools (X factor and WACC), we find that investment of incentive regulated firms appears highly sensitive to the X factor, consistent with efficiency- and profit-seeking motivations. Electric utilities investment is also sensitive to the level and change in the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Finally, we find that the positive relationship between private control and investment is not robust to IV estimations, suggesting that in Europe regulation may have reduced the differences between private and public firms’ incentives to invest.     

Private ownership form and productive efficiency: Electric cooperatives versus investor-owned utilities

Property rights theory predicts that private firms whose ownership shares are not tradable will not be managed efficiently. This paper tests that theory by comparing the costs of rural electric cooperatives (RECs) and investor-owned electric utilities (IOUs). Separate translog cost functions are estimated for the RECs and the IOUs. The estimated costs of producing several three-product output bundles are then compared across ownership form under the assumption that all firms face identical input prices. The empirical results suggest that the cooperative sector of the electric power industry produces its output in a much less efficient manner than does the investor-owned sector.I would like to thank David Kaserman, Steven Caudill, T. Randolph Beard, Daniel Gropper, and David Laband for their many helpful comments on earlier drafts of this paper. This research was partially funded by the Auburn University Utilities Research Center. The views expressed here are the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of the New York State Public Service Commission.     

Monopsony power and the existence of natural monopoly in energy utilities

The justification for price and entry regulation of firms hinges on whether the firms are natural monopolies, and empirical tests have been used to determine the natural monopoly status of public utilities. However, these tests are biased if the utilities possess monopsony power - a likely case. The bias is against finding natural monopoly status, which can lead to improper policies. An alternative method of testing is proposed which eliminates the bias.     

Sensitivity analysis of efficiency rankings to distributional assumptions: applications to Japanese water utilities

This article examines the robustness of efficiency score rankings across four distributional assumptions for trans-log stochastic production-frontier models, using data from 1221 Japanese water utilities (for 2004 and 2005). One-sided error terms considered include the half-normal, truncated normal, exponential and gamma distributions. Results are compared for homoscedastic and doubly heteroscedastic models, where we also introduce a doubly heteroscedastic variable mean model, and examine the sensitivity of the nested models to a stronger heteroscedasticity correction for the one-sided error component. The results support three conclusions regarding the sensitivity of efficiency rankings to distributional assumptions. When four standard distributional assumptions are applied to a homoscedastic stochastic frontier model, the efficiency rankings are quite consistent. When those assumptions are applied to a doubly heteroscedastic stochastic frontier model, the efficiency rankings are consistent when proper and sufficient arguments for the variance functions are included in the model. When a more general model, like a variable mean model is estimated, efficiency rankings are quite sensitive to heteroscedasticity correction schemes.     

Technology roadmaps for transition management: The case of hydrogen energy

Technology roadmaps are increasingly used by governments to inform and promote technological transitions, such as a transition to a hydrogen energy system. This paper develops a framework for understanding how current roadmapping practice relates to emerging theories of the governance of systems innovation. In applying this framework to a case study of hydrogen roadmaps, the paper finds that roadmapping for transitions needs to place greater emphasis on ensuring good quality and transparent analytic and participatory procedures. To be most useful, roadmaps should be embedded within institutional structures that enable the incorporation of learning and re-evaluation, but in practice most transition roadmaps are one-off exercises.     

UK utilities: Past reform and current proposals

Utilities in the UK have undergone dramatic reform in the past fifteen years. This paper assesses the outcome by reviewing previously published work and introducing some new evidence, and assesses the UK Government's 1998 proposed reforms. We outline the impact of change of ownership, re-regulation and introducing competition on efficiency, investment, quality of service, prices and equity. We conclude that these reforms can yield benefits if they are undertaken within a clear framework of wider social and environmental benefits. Initial regulation in the UK has not always satisfied these criteria, and we welcome the government's proposed reforms, with some caveats     

EQ-5D health utilities: exploring ways to improve upon responsiveness in psoriasis

Aims: To determine if EuroQoL 5-Dimension Health Questionnaire (EQ-5D) health utility scores were able to discriminate among different levels of improvement in psoriasis severity following therapy.

Materials and methods: Data were from three placebo-controlled phase 3 ixekizumab studies (UNCOVER-1, UNCOVER-2, and UNCOVER-3) with patients who had baseline Dermatology Life Quality Index scores >10 (DLQI >10). Psoriasis severity (Psoriasis Area and Severity Index [PASI]), general health utility (EQ-5D), and psoriasis-specific utility (EQ-PSO, UNCOVER-3 only) were assessed. EQ-5D-5L utility scores were generated using the England EQ-5D-5L value set, a crosswalk applied to the EQ-5D-3L United States (US) and United Kingdom (UK) value sets, and a regression-based exploratory scoring function for the EQ-PSO (UK). Analysis of variance was used to estimate change in EQ-5D-5L from baseline to Week 12 per PASI improvement level: PASI <50, PASI 50 to <75, PASI 75 to <90, PASI 90 to <100, and PASI 100. Missing data were imputed using the last observation carried forward method. Value sets for the UK, England, and the US were applied.

Results: In total, 2085 patients across UNCOVER-1, UNCOVER-2, and UNCOVER-3 had baseline DLQI >10 and available utility scores. At Week 12, mean EQ-5D utility scores increased with increasing PASI improvement levels (p?n?=?645; PASI 90 to <100: 0.141, PASI 100: 0.200; adjusted p?=?0.043).

Limitations: EQ-5D-5L index-based scores have limited ability to differentiate among psoriasis patients at the highest PASI improvement levels.

ConclusionsL Adding psoriasis-specific EQ-PSO dimensions to the EQ-5D may enhance responsiveness to improvement in skin clarity at the highest PASI levels, and, therefore, generate utility scores that better reflect treatment benefit in cost-utility models.     

Market-related reforms and increased energy efficiency in transition countries: empirical evidence

Energy efficiency improvement is a desirable response to growing climate change and security of energy supply concerns. This article studies the impacts of a varied set of macro-level market-oriented reforms as well as structural change on economy-wide measure of energy efficiency across a group of the transition countries. These countries experienced a rapid marketization process, which, since the early 1990s, transformed their economies from central planning towards market-driven models. We use a bias-corrected fixed-effect analysis technique to estimate this effect for the period 1990 to 2010. The results suggest that reforms aimed at market liberalization, financial sector and most infrastructure industries drove energy efficiency improvements. We find significant differences in improvements in energy efficiency between transitional Central European and Baltic States, South East Europe ones and the Commonwealth of Independent States. The reasons for these differences are also discussed.     

Understanding the role of economic transition in enlarging energy price elasticity

Evidence of energy price elasticity would allow for a better understanding of economic, distributional and environmental consequences of varying energy prices. We document the previously unnoticed causal relationship between energy price elasticity and economic transition by modelling energy price elasticity as endogenous to the economic system. The central message is that economic transition promotes incentives and flexibility of micro‐units to sufficiently use price signals. Three potential mechanisms are proposed and tested for economic transition affecting the energy price elasticity. The findings provide implications for energy price policies because it reveals how energy consumers respond to energy price changes alongside economic transition.     

New approach to estimating the cost of common equity capital for public utilities

The regulatory process for setting public utilities’ allowed rate of return on common equity has generally used the Gordon DCF, CAPM and Risk Premium specifications to estimate the cost of common equity. Despite the widely known problems with these models, there has been little movement to adopt more recently developed asset pricing models to provide additional evidence for estimating the cost of capital. This paper presents, validates empirically and applies a general yet simple consumption-based asset pricing specification to model the risk-return relationship for stocks and estimate the cost of common equity for public utilities. The model is not necessarily superior to other models in its practical results, yet these results do indicate that it should be used to provide additional estimates of the cost of common equity. Additionally, the model raises doubts as to whether assets such as utility stocks are a consumption (business cycle) hedge.     

Determinants of the systematic risk of electric utilities: theory and estimation

Investors' perceptions of the risk of holding the common stocks of electric utilities are analysed on the assumption that risk depends on the covariance of shareholder returns with the market. The analysis explicitly relates risk to the sales and cost structures, growth, and regulatory environment of each electric utility. The model accounts for the effects of regulatory lag during periods of cost inflation. The model is estimated using a pooled cross-section, time-series sample of 95 electric utilities for the period 1965 to 1977. Estimates indicate that sales,cost structure and growth dominate investors' assessment of the systematic risk of individual firms. Surprisingly, differences in regulatory treatment experienced by firms have a relatively small effect on perceived systematic risk.     

Privatisation of utilities and the asset value problem

Privatised utilities are typically characterised by both undervaluation and underpricing. When faced with this problem, regulators have tended to employ a market-value approach to determine the regulatory asset base. This paper analyses this approach and shows that it magnifies the impact of any ‘short-lived’ error at privatisation and has the effect of entrenching relative errors forever. We then address the question whether there is an alternative mechanism that can accommodate the undervaluation problem but does not fall foul of the difficulties inherent in the market-value approach. The alternative we suggest is to use the regulatory agency's own estimate of the company's value, which we call the model-based asset value. It is shown that errors made at the time of privatisation do not have the same impact on future prices, and hence far less effect on the potential sale price.     

Corruption and inefficiency: Theory and evidence from electric utilities

We investigate the determinants of the efficiency of firms with a focus on the role of corruption. We construct a simple theoretical model where corruption increases the factor requirements of firms because it diverts managerial effort away from factor coordination. We then exploit a unique dataset comprising firm-level information on 80 electricity distribution firms from 13 Latin American countries for the years 1994 to 2001. As predicted by the model, we find that more corruption in the country is strongly associated with more inefficient firms, in the sense that they employ more inputs to produce a given level of output. The economic magnitude of the effects is large. The results hold both in models with country and firm fixed effects. The results survive several robustness checks, including different measures of output and efficiency, and instrumenting for corruption. Other elements associated with inefficiency are public ownership, inflation, and lack of law and order, but corruption appears to play a separate and more robust role.     

Exploring local projects for sustainable energy in system transition: local perceptions of success

In the sustainability transitions literature, ‘success’ is conceived as the transition from an unsustainable system to a sustainable one. However, this view hides a more profound complexity in individual projects which can contribute to system transition. This paper focuses instead on local projects as key sites for change. In two case studies of UK sustainable energy projects, success is shown to be characterised by different causative beliefs held by different people about the problems being addressed, which predetermines solutions to those problems; and hence the nature of success. By acknowledging this multiplicity of success, as perceived by ordinary residents and project organisers as well as transition scholars, ‘narratives of success’ can be recognised, enabling future projects to build on success, and continue along the path to transition. This reconceptualisation provides transition scholars with new ways of understanding and effecting transitions; by focusing on the project level, which is useful in contexts with varying commitment to sustainability.     

Financing energy efficiency retrofits in Chilean households: The role of financial instruments,savings and uncertainty in energy transition

High firewood consumption for heating produces high levels of pollution in cities in central and southern Chile, with serious consequences for health and quality of life. Energy efficiency measures (EEMs) have been identified as the best strategy to reduce air pollution and maximize social benefits. However, their adoption has been slow. The objective of this article is to investigate household preferences for financial incentives needed to promote private investments in EEMs in Central-Southern Chilean households and study the role of energy savings and the uncertainty about potential savings in the investment decision, with the aim of finding solutions to increase the adoption of these technologies. We use a choice experiment to explore the trade-off between the investment costs, financial instruments, energy savings, and the uncertainty about achieving the theoretical savings provided by engineering and architectural models. The results show that financial instruments play the most important role in this decision, followed by the savings achieved by the retrofit. Householders prefer to finance their investments with a mix of their personal resources and medium-term credits, trying to avoid long-term commitments. Although uncertainty was found to be a significant variable, it seems to play a small role in the investment decision.     

社会建设的关键在于“民生服务型”财政

要实现经济社会的协调发展,实现经济发展和社会公平的均衡,实现政府职能向公共服务的转变,实现个人和社会关系的全面调整,社会建设需要在制度和政策方面有所创新,并紧紧抓住"民生服务型"财政这一关键。