共查询到18条相似文献,搜索用时 343 毫秒
1.
2.
3.
4.
林业项目评估的实物期权法浅议 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
总结了林业项目评估的现状,指出传统评估方法的不足,进而分析林业项目的特点及其具有的期权特性,解释实物期权法在林业项目评估中的必要性和可行性。然后,介绍实物期权法在林业项目评估中的应用现状,分析在运用实物期权法进行林业项目评估时的局限和问题。最后,针对这些问题给出一些建议。 相似文献
5.
PPP项目物有所值评价追求成本节约下的高效率产出,以达到最佳的资源配置状态,其中关键就是确定项目由政府传统模式建设与采用PPP模式的成本孰低问题。PPP项目与一般投资项目一样隐含着价值的实物期权,在进行物有所值评价时引入实物期权评价具有可行性,并且实物期权的引入能够提高政府部门决策准确性。本文以A市垃圾焚烧发电PPP项目为例,通过识别项目中蕴含的风险判定项目可能具有的期权,并利用实物期权法在公共部门比较基准法的基础上调整VFM值,进行敏感性分析,得出项目的期权价值与波动率、无风险利率成正相关,与项目到期时间成负相关。 相似文献
6.
文章结合林业碳汇投资规模大、回收周期长、碳汇产品定价难等特征,基于实物期权定价理论,利用Black-Scholes模型,对福建省碳汇造林项目价值和碳汇交易价格进行实证研究。结果表明,采用常规的净现值法计算出的项目价值与引入实物期权评价模型计算出的项目价值运用灰色预测模型与2022年福建省林业碳汇成交均价相比较,林业碳汇造林项目价值及碳汇产品交易价格均被严重低估,基于实物期权理论的评估方法对林业碳汇产品进行定价更加科学合理。为进一步丰富林业碳汇金属产品交易体系,提高碳汇市场活跃度,文章提出对策建议:(1)深化林权制度改革,激励林农营林造林;(2)科学核算投资回报,提高经营者积极性;(3)创新碳金融产品,规避价格波动风险;(4)引入多元交易主体,促进碳汇流通交易。 相似文献
7.
房地产项目投资具有较大风险和不确定性,而运用传统投资评价方法已不能准确计算不确定性所带来的价值。本文分析传统投资评价方法在房地产投资决策中存在的缺陷,提出对于房地产项目投资而言,充分考虑房地产投资中的时间价值和管理柔性价值的实物期权法是一种更为科学合理的投资决策方法,最后利用B-S模型对实物期权在房地产投资决策中的应用进行案例分析。 相似文献
8.
实物期权方法和传统的投资决策方法是两种不同角度的投资决策机制。本文基于实物期权定价模型的研究分析,结合相关案例的探讨,总结出实物期权在房地产投资决策中具有很明显的优越性,这会il导投资者对房地产投资项目的价值做出正确的评价。 相似文献
9.
10.
11.
Faustmann vs. real options theory – An experimental investigation of foresters’ harvesting decisions
Among the most complex decisions in forestry is the decision of when to harvest a stand. Many investment theories have been established and adjusted to maximize profit, yet limited knowledge is available regarding the predictive power of theories. Understanding foresters’ harvesting behavior, however, is important for forest management and policy support. Thus, the question arises as to what extent risky harvesting decisions comply with economic theories. Therefore, we conduct an incentive-based economic experiment with 107 forestry decision makers in order to analyze this research question. This approach is well-established in the field of behavioral economics since it has the advantage of analyzing certain economic parameters isolated from further aspects of the decision situation. We use the Faustmann–Pressler–Ohlin theorem and a real options approach as normative benchmarks. The present study provides evidence that none of the examined theories fully comply with the observed behavior. However, the harvesting behavior coincides significantly more with the real options theory than with the Faustmann–Pressler–Ohlin theorem. It can thus be stated that a higher degree of education leads to decisions that are more in accordance with the real options theory. 相似文献
12.
Gregory E. Frey D. Evan Mercer Frederick W. Cubbage Robert C. Abt 《Agricultural Economics》2013,44(1):73-91
Efforts to restore the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley's forests have not achieved desired levels of ecosystem services production. We examined how the variability of returns and the flexibility to change or postpone decisions (option value) affects the economic potential of forestry and agroforestry systems to keep private land in production while still providing ecosystem services. A real options analysis examined the impact of flexibility in decision making under agriculture, forestry, and agroforestry and demonstrated that adoption of forestry or agroforestry systems is less feasible than would be predicted by deterministic capital budgeting models. 相似文献
13.
Assessing the Financial Performance of Forestry-Related Investment Vehicles: Capital Asset Pricing Model vs. Arbitrage Pricing Theory 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and arbitrage pricing theory (APT) are used to assess the financial performance of eight forestry-related investment vehicles. Although results from APT support previous findings from CAPM about timberland investments, three bodies of evidence show that APT findings are more robust. The major conclusions are (a) institutional timberland investments and timberland limited partnerships have a low risk level and excess returns; (b) forestry industry companies have not earned risk-adjusted returns, and the performance of medium forest industry firms is worse than that of large firms; (c) stumpage price does not resemble the return generation process of timberland investments; and (d) lumber futures have little excess return. 相似文献
14.
15.
政府经营性土地储备供应决策——基于实物期权的理论模型 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
研究目的:探讨政府的经营性土地储备供应决策方法,以增加出让收入及抑制开发商囤地行为。研究方法:实物期权理论,案例研究法。研究结果:(1)将土地供应权视为基于房产的实物期权,推算出了最优供应时机和理论价值,研究发现市场不确定性将提高土地期权价值,并使最优供应时机延后;(2)案例比较分析发现,地块的实际出让时间越接近理论最优供应时机,出让收入越高,但实际上政府对地块并未做出准确的价值判断。研究结论:(1)依据实物期权模型做出的土地储备供应决策更能有效地把握市场形势波动的时机;(2)模型在中国的应用需要可监督的公共财政体系以及财政分成体制改革。 相似文献
16.
This article reviews the trends in government subsidies and investments in and for Indian agriculture; develops a conceptual framework and a model to assess the impact of various subsidies and investments on agricultural growth and poverty reduction; and presents reform options with regard to re‐prioritizing government spending. Subsidies in credit, fertilizer, and irrigation have been crucial for small farmers to adopt new technologies particularly during the initial stage of the green revolution in the late 1960s and 1970s. But it is now investments in agricultural research, education, and rural roads that are the three most effective public spending items in promoting agricultural growth and reducing poverty. 相似文献
17.