Prediction from binary choice models: A note

The results of Westin (1974) can be obtained, to a satisfactory approximation, without recourse to numerical integration. We also show how to attach a standard error to his point estimates.     

Taxation and Housing Tenure Choice: The Case for Moderate-Income Homeownership

This study explores the financial value of homeownership for households in the 15% Federal tax bracket. Earlier studies concluded homeownership was only for households with high marginal tax rates, but they neglected how vacancy and turnover rates factor into rental prices. Principal innovations here include deriving long-run equilibrium rent-to-value ratios for the rental market and contrasting investor holding periods with lengths of household tenures. Tax regime simulations are performed for homeowner deductions and investor capital gains tax rates.     

Parametric links for binary choice models: A Fisherian–Bayesian colloquy

The familiar logit and probit models provide convenient settings for many binary response applications, but a larger class of link functions may be occasionally desirable. Two parametric families of link functions are investigated: the Gosset link based on the Student t latent variable model with the degrees of freedom parameter controlling the tail behavior, and the Pregibon link based on the (generalized) Tukey λ family, with two shape parameters controlling skewness and tail behavior. Both Bayesian and maximum likelihood methods for estimation and inference are explored, compared and contrasted. In applications, like the propensity score matching problem discussed below, where it is critical to have accurate estimates of the conditional probabilities, we find that misspecification of the link function can create serious bias. Bayesian point estimation via MCMC performs quite competitively with MLE methods; however nominal coverage of Bayes credible regions is somewhat more problematic.     

住房消费需求、投资需求与租买选择差异研究——基于天津市的实证分析

基于《2017年天津市住房与交通调查问卷》数据,通过住房消费需求、投资需求和租买选择的联合建模,分析住房租买选择行为中的"消费—投资"动机与群体分异特征。结果显示:(1)家庭住房投资需求远大于消费需求,两者之间的差异是影响住房租买选择的主要因素,但不能完全解释其决策行为;(2)家庭资产水平及住房自有状态层级越高,其未来住房租买意愿选择更倾向于购房;(3)房价上涨预期和厌恶型投资风险态度在一定程度上增强了家庭未来住房购买意愿。因此,从深化房地产税收制度改革,剥离非居住性附加功能、拓宽民众金融投资渠道,合理引导房地产市场预期、健全住房租赁市场治理体系,倡导"租买无差异"消费理念等方面提出政策建议。     

The demand for teleshopping: An application of discrete choice models

New telecommunications technologies have often been suggested to act as substitutes for travel. Teleshopping may be a substitute for traditional store shopping. This paper studies the determination of the demand for teleshopping. In general, the demand for telecommunications is derived from the demand for information. So we look at teleshopping as a form of information gathering. Agents can engage in various shopping activities, including teleshopping, which entail different time and monetary costs. Through a discrete choice model, we analyze the effect of costs on the choice of shopping activities. The model is estimated based on a pilot experiment in which individuals had to choose among information bundles when shopping for differentiated products. Implicit in the choice set were information items which can only be transmitted by specific media. Limitations of this preliminary work and suggestions for future research are discussed.     

Choice of functional form for hedonic price equations

The appropriate functional form for a hedonic price equation cannot in general be specified on theoretical grounds. In this paper, a statistical procedure for the choice of functional form is proposed. A highly general functional form is specified that yields all other functional forms of interest as special cases. Likelihood ratio tests are used to test the appropriateness of alternative forms. The procedure is illustrated using cross section microdata for housing. For the case considered, the functional forms most commonly used in previous studies are strongly rejected.     

Simple tests for sample selection bias in censored and discrete choice models

This paper presents two simple tests of sample selection bias for models where the primary equation of interest has a censored or discrete dependent variable. The first test is derived as a conditional moment test and can be implemented in a regression-based framework. The second test is an extension of the testing procedures proposed by Heckman (1979) and Vella (1993) and is a t-test on a constructed variable in an auxiliary equation. The utility of the tests is illustrated in a model determining the receipt of work conditioned nonwage labour income over a subsample of working women.     

Measurement error in discrete health facility choice models: An example from urban Senegal

We use individual‐level health facility choice data from urban Senegal to estimate consumer preferences for facility characteristics related to maternal health services. We find that consumers consider a large number of quality‐related facility characteristics, as well as travel costs, when making their health facility choice. In contrast to the typical assumption in the literature, our findings indicate that individuals frequently bypass the facility nearest their home. In light of this, we show that the mismeasured data used commonly in the literature produces biased preference estimates; most notably, the literature likely overestimates consumer distaste for travel.     

资源型城市的转型发展选择——以辽宁大石桥为例

本文以辽宁大石桥为例,通过综合分析城市的产业和经济发展特点,对城市发展阶段进行了基本判定,并结合城市的综合发展条件,提出了大石桥经济转型的模式和基本路径,指出大石桥应当充分把握机遇,在当前的城市繁荣期尽快通过多元化的转型模式实现城市转型.     

Existence and uniqueness of price equilibria: Theory and application to discrete choice models

Continuous excess demand systems which do not obey homogeneity of degree zero or Walras's Law are proved to have equilibria if they satisfy certain mild regularity conditions when prices tend to the extremes of a price domain which need not be closed or bounded. A straightforward generalization of Brouwer's theorem is used. Systems also obeying a weak balance condition (of which Walras's Law is a special case) and homogeneity are treated as corollaries to the main theorem. Sufficient conditions for differentiable excess demand systems to have unique equilibria are developed in three separate theorems. The usefulness of these general existence and uniqueness theorems is demonstrated by applying them to three specific models constructed from discrete choice theory: (1) a competitive rental housing market, (2) a regulated rental housing market with fixed rents and rationing and (3) an interregional labor market in which laborers can choose among regions for employment (or voluntary unemployment) as well as the work hours they will supply.     

Generalized extreme value discrete choice demand models : Existence and uniqueness of market equilibria

Generalized extreme value (GEV) random utility choice models have been suggested as a development of the multinomial logit models that allows the random components of various alternatives to be statistically dependent. This paper establishes the existence of and provides necessary and sufficient uniqueness conditions for the solutions to a set of equations that may be interpreted as an equilibrium of an economy, the demand side of which is described by a multiple-segment GEV random choice model. The same equations may alternatively be interpreted in a maximum likelihood estimation context. The method employed is based on optimization theory and may provide a useful computational approach. The uniqueness results suggest a way to introduce segregation/integration effects into logit type choice models. Generalization to non-GEV models are touched upon.     

The asymptotic distribution of the sum of weighted squared residuals in binary choice models

It is claimed by some authors that the distribution of the sum of weighted squared residuals, used as a goodness of fit measure in binary choice models, behaves for large n as a x²_n– k–1 distribution. This claim seems to be based on a false analogy with the well–known Pearson x² statistic for frequency tables with a fixed number of cells and cell sizes tending to infinity. We derive the asymptotic (normal) distribution and show that the approximation by the x² distribution in general will not be valid. A new x² test is proposed based on the asymptotic normality of the measure.     

A consistent nonparametric test of parametric regression functional form in fixed effects panel data models

We propose a consistent test for a linear functional form against a nonparametric alternative in a fixed effects panel data model. We show that the test has a limiting standard normal distribution under the null hypothesis, and show that the test is a consistent test. We also establish the asymptotic validity of a bootstrap procedure which is used to better approximate the finite sample null distribution of the test statistic. Simulation results show that the proposed test performs well for panel data with a large number of cross-sectional units and a finite number of observations across time.     

A discrete choice model of dividend reinvestment plans: classification and prediction

We use a discrete choice recursive model to classify companies with and without dividend reinvestment plans (DRIPs). Our model classifies 72.0% of companies correctly. We interpret misclassified companies as being likely to switch their plan status. For example, if financial data erroneously suggest that a company should have a DRIP then we expect that it would be more likely to institute a plan than other companies in the sample. Our results support this conjecture. Companies that add DRIPs tend to have more extreme levels of variables that control for management entrenchment, higher levels of variables that control for the ability to pay dividends and higher payout ratios. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A characterization for solutions of stochastic discrete time optimization models

A notion of finitely optimal plan for intertemporal optimization problems as a necessary condition for optimality is introduced. Under interiority of a feasible plan and differentiability of the return function, such a plan satisfies the stochastic analogue of deterministicEuler-Lagrange conditions, which become also sufficient conditions under concavity of the return function. Then, under more general assumptions, a sufficient criterion of optimality based on competitive plans supported by price systems and transversality conditions is discussed. Differently from the current literature, no restrictive hypotheses on the probability measure of the random shocks are assumed.

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Sommario Nella prima parte del lavoro si studiano le soluzioni dettefinitamente ottime che costituiscono una condizione necessaria per l'ottimalità di un piano ammissibile . Sotto ipotesi di interiorità del piano ammissibile e di differenziabilità della funzione obiettivo uniperiodaleF, vengono formulate le condizioni necessarie diEuler-Lagrange in ambito stocastico; aggiungendo l'ulteriore ipotesi di concavità perF, tali condizioni diventano anche sufficienti per l'ottimalità finita.La teoria viene poi estesa al caso sopradifferenziabile ottenendo una generalizzazione delle condizioni di Euler-Lagrange stocastiche che consente di individuare i piani finitamente ottimi mediante la nozione dicompetitività, ovvero supportabilità di un sistema di prezzi aleatori. Con una condizione di trasversalità all'infinito, la competitività diventa condizione sufficiente anche per l'ottimalità propria (cioè non solo finita).La peculiarità della presente trattazione è che tali condizioni sono formulate sotto ipotesi molto generali per quanto riguarda il processo degli shocks esogeni.

     

A class of binary response models for grouped duration data

This paper explores the relationship between conventional models for binary response such as the probit and logit, and the proportional hazard (PH) and related specifications for grouped duration data. I outline a general class of hazard models for grouped duration data based upon the choice of period-specific distribution functions, facilitating a thorough analysis of the implications of various specifications and consideration of various issues of model identification. This class of models nests, among others, the proportional hazard, probit, and logit specifications for interval survival. I consider the implications of various specifications for hazard behaviour, focusing on familiar specifications. While the specifications will generally yield results that are quite similar along a number of dimensions, there are significant differences. The probit model generates non-proportional effects of variables on the discrete hazard, while the logit and PH tend to show only slight non-proportionality. Furthermore, while the effects of variables on the derivatives are considerably larger for the probit specification, the time-pattern of the probit effects is relatively insensitive to changes in explanatory variables. I illustrate these issues by providing an example taken from Katz's (1986) unemployment data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics.     

A note on the use of aggregate data in individual choice models: Discrete consumer choice among alternative fuels for residential appliances

In order to exploit the usefulness of qualitative models of individual choice and the availability of aggregate energy demand data, this paper develops a maximum likelihood technique for incorporating aggregate data into individual choice models. The paper treats the use of aggregate data as a measurement error problem; it develops consistent estimators of individual taste by correcting for the implied measurement error. Using the maximum likelihood technique, a number of individual choice models are estimated for residential demand for space heaters, water heaters, ranges and clothes dryers. The extent of asymptotic bias generated by the uncorrected use of aggregate data is documented.     

Behavioural response and form of the representative component of the indirect utility function in travel choice models

In the last ten years, discrete-choice modelling using techniques of multinomial logit and multinomial probit, have been increasingly used in a wide range of applications. One area of recent interest is the functional form of the representative component of the preference function. In this paper we draw together a number of approaches used to investigate alternative functional form, and then develop in some detail one procedure — known as the Box-Tukey statistical search approached. While this is not a substitute for direct behavioural specification, it does provide a useful complementary basis for identifying the sensitivity of key policy parameters (e.g., elasticities) to varying functional form. The empirical illustration is drawn from analysis of a mode choice data set.