Credit cycles in a Neo-Austrian economy

This paper discusses the relationship between firms’ access to credit market and business fluctuations in a sequential Neo-Austrian economy. Existence of cycles reflects a fundamental distortion in the intertemporal structure of production, that is a lack of coordination between utilization of productive capacity and construction of new machines. The role of credit market institutions is to sustain viability of the economy along an out-of-equilibrium transition. Allowing for a high degree of price flexibility turns out not to be a general response to boosts in capital accumulation and employment. When we focus on an irreversible, off-equilibrium dynamics the coordination of policy interventions becomes a relevant tool to govern fluctuations.     

Allocative and distributional effects of a monopolistic cooperative firm in a capitalist economy

It is well known that labor-managed firms operating under socialism exhibit “bizarre” behavior with respect to their production strategy. We prove that under capitalism most of these distortions disappear, consequently, the production strategies of an entrepreneurial monopoly and of the labor-managed firm become indistinguishable. However, there appears an almost inherent instability in the distribution of profits. The degree of instability depends on the existence of some sort of supportive legislation. Thus, unlike under socialism, in a capitalistic economy the labor-managed firm may have an effect on the distribution of profits at most.     

Emerging economy business cycles: Interest rate shocks vs trend shocks

The recent literature studying the source of business cycles in emerging market economies (EMEs) has debated the relative importance of productivity trend shocks versus interest rate shocks coupled with financial frictions. The studies in which an important role is assigned to interest rate shocks do not force their models to match the historical paths of the world or country interest rate. We show that this leads to poorly identified interest rate shocks and inaccurate measures of contributions of shocks to EME business cycles. To address this issue, we estimate a small open economy model for Argentina and Mexico using Bayesian methods where the world and country interest rate series in the model are forced to match their data counterparts. This estimation strategy results in larger variations in interest rate shock and, therefore, shifts explanatory power away from trend shocks towards interest rate shocks, although both shocks remain important.     

Labor theory of value and the uncertainty in capitalist economy

This article aims to offer a reply to Steedman’s critique of Marx’s labor theory of value. Although this critique having been there for about three decades, the anti-critiques from Marxists are up to date flawed with fatal limitation, losing sight of an important dimension of labor theory of value, i.e., without taking it as a theoretical tool of understanding the uncertainty rooted in capitalist mode of production. The first part of this article reviews the controversy initiated by Steedman. Part 2 discusses Marx’s dual theory of market value and Rubin’s interpretation. Our view is that, if Rubin’s interpretation is accepted, a refutation of Steedman’s critique towards Marx will be impossible. Part 3 of this article explores the possible reconstruction of market value in the perspective of the dynamics in the pivoting of market value. We concludes that, the relationship between the standard condition of production and value is not, as argued by Steedman, of deterministic and one-directional character. For Marx, labor theory of value is applied to analyze the uncertain relation between the means and the end, the condition and the result of capitalist production. Meanwhile, another reply is attempted towards the negative comment on labor theory of value made by contemporary evolutionary economist such as Hodgson. In our view, Marx’s labor theory of value is not irrelevant as claimed by Hodgson to the main topics of evolutionary economics such as variety and “natural selection.” It is through labor theory of value that Marx explains the co-evolution of technology and economy.     

Unemployment rate cycles in Europe

This article analyses the duration of cycles in the unemployment rate series in a group of EU countries. It extends the model by Bierens (2001) and follows Gil-Alana (2001) by allowing for fractional cyclical integration. Once cycles are introduced in the model, we have more evidence of mean reversion than in previous studies.     

Interest rate determination in a high inflation economy

This study examines the importance of the liquidity effect, inflation uncertainty, and supply shocks in determining interest rates in a high inflation economy (Israel). The results show that a significant liquidity effect exists when it is measured by a broad definition of money. The vanishing liquidity effect, found in studies of the U.S., may be the result of the use of M, to measure it. There is some support for the hypothesis that the strength of the liquidity effect is negatively related to the level of inflation. Interest rates are negatively (and significantly) affected by inflation uncertainty, and positively affected by supply shocks.     

Stylized facts of business cycles in a transition economy in time and frequency

We discuss the properties of business cycles in Romania between 1991 and 2011 using a wavelets based method. We compare it with the standard approaches in literature. We analyze the relationship between output and key macroeconomic variables in time and frequency. While in terms of comovement the results are mostly in line with previous findings, there is a better picture of the time varying features as well as the influence of recessions on the nature of the relationships. The approach applied here can also isolate the influence of specific events, like the accession to the European Union.     

Is income security possible in a capitalist economy? : An agency-theoretic analysis of an unconditional income grant

This paper is an assessment of the economic effects of the replacement of means-tested or employment-status-related state redistributive programs by a basic income grant paid unconditionally to all adults without regard to their employment status or pretransfer incomes. A microeconomic model is developed to identify the effects of such a grant on the institutional mechanisms governing the supply of work by those employed and the implied effects on the level of wages, profitability an investment. Two questions are posed. First, taking account of the implied effects on wages, labor discipline and taxes, is it possible to introduce a basic income grant without reducing the level of economy with maintainance of the level of profitability and so, what is the largest grant consistent with maintainance of the level of profitability and investment? The answer to the first question is affirmative. The answer to the second is that for an economy such as the United States, the profitability and investment maintaining grant is small but hardly insignificant; its implementation would effect a major redistribution of income from the employed and the unemployed to the non-employed.     

Equilibrium cycles in an overlapping generations economy with production

Perfect foresight equilibrium trajectories of an overlapping generations model with production may include stable or unstable invariant closed curves. These orbits are detected using the Hopf bifurcation theorem, where the parameter of bifurcation is purely technological. The paper also proves that there is a stabilization policy that completely eliminates the cycle. Finally, using a C.E.S. production function, it is shown that the range of values of the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor for which cycles may exist is bounded above.     

Economic migration and business cycles in a small open economy with matching frictions

With the free movement of labour in Europe, economic migration has become an important determinant of labour supply. Cyclical migration exceeds one percent of the population in many countries and affects (un)employment and wage setting. The main contribution of this paper is that it models migration as an endogenous decision in a search-and-matching framework, where labour market institutions play an important role. It shows that, contrary to typical beliefs, migration can amplify business cycles. After a positive shock to the economy, immigration increases the labour force and initially unemployment. The latter reduces a worker's outside option in wage negotiations, resulting in a lower wage increase than when there is no migration. With cheaper labour firms post more job vacancies, which increases the probability that unemployed workers find jobs and attracts new workers to immigrate. Attenuated response of wages and the stronger response of employment to shocks result in a flatter Phillips curve.     

Exchange rate policy and imported inflation in a credit rationing economy

The paper assesses the effects of exchange rate policies and imported inflation in the case of Finland, which is a small open economy with underdeveloped financial markets. Under such circumstances interest rates do not necessarily equilibrate the credit market, so that a simplified theoretical disequilibrium model with credit rationing is first presented. In the second part of the paper the Bank of Finland quarterly econometric model for the Finnish economy is simulated. The most important conclusion to emerge from the simulations with the quarterly model is that the effects are highly dependent on the credit market conditions.     

A note on the marginal tax rate in a finite economy

The marginal tax rate is shown to be non-negative in Guesnerie and Seade's model of nonlinear pricing in a finite economy under assumptions that are as mild as those customarily adopted in nonlinear tax models with a one-dimensional continuum population.     

Exchange rate pass-through in a small open economy: the Anglo-Irish case

Bilateral import unit values are constructed to investigate the extent and speed of exchange rate and production cost pass-through into the unit values of Irish imports (total and sectoral) from the UK using Menon's (1996 Menon, J. 1996. The degree and determinants of exchange rate pass-through: market structure, non-tariff barriers and multinational corporations. Economic Journal, 106(435): 434–44.  ) mark-up model. The approach used to measure exchange rate pass-through is based on cointegration and error-correction modelling and the period of analysis is from 1979 to 1995. Full pass-through from the bilateral Irish pound–Sterling exchange rate and from UK producer costs could not be rejected for total and sectoral import unit values for the sample period 1979q1–1995q4. This implies no role for domestic competing prices in explaining the long-run relationship determining unit values of Irish imports from the UK. The results indicate that for aggregate and sectoral unit values of Irish imports from the UK pass-through is incomplete in the short-run.     

Determinants of international transmission of business cycles to Turkish economy

This study aims to investigate the channels through which international business cycles are transmitted to Turkish economy. Our analysis follows two steps: i) business cycle transmission is measured using Longest Common Subsequence (LCS) method, a pattern recognition algorithm that accounts for the nonlinear and time-varying nature of business cycles and ii) the potential mechanisms of propagation of international business cycles are examined by specifying a panel regression model in which the LCS measure of synchronization is used as the dependent variable. Applying several panel estimation methods to the bilateral data from 22 countries over the 1998–2009 periods, we find that both trade and financial similarities are significant in the transmission of business cycles to Turkish economy. Especially, the results highlight the role of trade integration indicating that Turkish business cycles are closely linked with the business cycles of the members of European Custom Union.     

Quantile hedging for equity-linked life insurance contracts in a stochastic interest rate economy

In this paper we examine equity-linked life insurance contracts in a stochastic interest rate economy via quantile hedging whose purpose is to look for the optimal probability of a successful hedge under initial budget constraint. Most of the existing studies have focused on valuing equity-linked life insurance contracts by quantile hedging or in a framework of stochastic interest rates. However, a few have taken into account simultaneously the two techniques, which make valuing equity-linked life insurance contracts more difficult. We model the term structure of interest rates by classical HJM model that imbeds stochastic interest rate economy into one containing an arbitrary number of additional risky assets. By means of the change of measure approach, we give explicit formulas for the fair values of the following four products: deterministic payoff contract, pure equity-linked life contract, equity-linked life contract with guarantee, equity-linked life contract with minimum guarantees and capped benefits. We find that the explicit formulas are mainly composed of normal distribution functions and two-dimensional normal distribution functions. We also investigate sensibility of the survival probability using data of interest rates, stock prices and life table from China.     

Business cycles synchronization in East Asian economy: Evidences from time-varying coherence study

This paper analyzes the feasibility of a monetary union in East Asia focusing on business cycles synchronization. Considering the critical role of trade integration in the East Asian integration process, we study whether East Asian countries are characterized by business cycle synchronization. The related empirical literature dedicated to business cycles synchronization in East Asia does not lead to firm conclusion. In this paper, we suggest a different empirical approach allowing, contrary to the previous studies, to detect endogenously structural changes in the comovement process between outputs. We apply a new measure based on the time-varying coherence function. Such a measure not only detects comovement dynamics but it distinguishes also this dynamics between short- and long-term. We compute also cohesion statistics to test if countries tend to be more synchronized or not. The main finding of this paper is that the increase in bilateral trade inside the East Asian region significantly improves long-run business cycle synchronization. The short-run influence of bilateral trade shows mixed results. Indeed, short-run cycles remain significantly influenced both by shocks hitting each country and by economic policy responses. As a consequence, more bilateral trade and convergence in economic policy constitute two complementary processes to promote business cycle synchronization.