货币政策有效性与货币政策透明制度的兴起

本文着重探讨货币政策透明性与货币政策有效性之间的关系,目的在于说明货币政策透明制度能够兴起的一个关键因素在于货币政策的透明性有利于提高货币政策的有效性。在标准的“时间不一致性”理论里面,货币政策是否透明对货币政策的效应是没有影响的,因为在这类理论里面,经济主体能够使用所有可获得的信息形成与经济系统相一致的、无偏的估计。但问题的关键在于,这种假设的基本前提在实践中并不完全成立。当考虑到经济主体对经济运行结果和经济运行过程的不完全认知时,货币政策透明性对于促进经济主体的学习过程,稳定和引导公众的通胀预期,进而提高货币政策的有效性就起着至关重要的作用。     

National representation in supranational institutions: The case of the European Central Bank

Supranational institutions face an important trade-off when hiring personnel. On the one hand, hiring decisions are based, as in most organizations, on a candidate’s professional qualifications. On the other hand, supranational institutions often aim for broad national representation. Reviewing evidence from the European Central Bank, we show that nationality is indeed relevant for both hiring and decision-making. Specifically, we find a disproportionately narrow spread of national representation in the top management of the ECB. Further, there is evidence for the existence of national networks between adjacent management layers. Finally, monetary policy decisions seem to be linked to national representation in the core business areas of the ECB. Examining a sample of 27 European countries over the period from 1999 to 2008, we estimate Taylor rules for alternative sets of euro area aggregates derived from different weighting schemes of national macroeconomic data. Our results indicate that weights based on national representation in the mid-level management of the ECB’s core business areas best describe the central bank’s interest-rate setting behavior.     

The Evolution of European Central Bank Independence: An Updating of the Masciandaro and Spinelli Index

In an earlier paper in this journal, Masciandaro and Spinelli computed an index of central bank independence for a number of countries on the basis of the institutional arrangements in place in 1990. Since then the situation has changed and therefore that work needs an updating. This shows that the Bundesbank remains the most independent central bank, but several other central banks have increased their independence: see the cases of Spain, Italy, France, the Netherlands and Great Britain. The Bank of Spain has registered the biggest improvement and the Bank of Portugal remains the least independent.     

Spillovers of volatility index: evidence from U.S., European,and Asian stock markets

We investigated the cross-market relations of volatility indexes with U.S. and non-U.S. stock market returns. We found that the pervasive VIX influence at both U.S. and non-U.S. stock markets. The VSTOXX and VKOSPI capture the major shocks to the global economy and show movements similar to the VIX. The empirical findings indicate that volatility index changes are important in explaining stock returns. We also examined spillover effects across volatility indexes. The VIX is a main transmitter, and the VKOSPI the main receiver, of these spillovers. The results point to a leading role for the VIX in the international market.     

Baland,J.-M., Bourguignon,F., Platteau,J.-P. and T. Verdier,The Handbook of Economic Development and Institutions

Journal of Economics -     

中央银行的独立性--基于邮政储蓄及农发行视角的分析

关于邮政储蓄和农业政策性银行的改革是近年来饱受争议的一个话题,因为其既涉及中央财政,又涉及中央银行;而以往学者的讨论要么局限于邮政储蓄,要么局限于农业政策性银行,均有失全面。为此,本文通过剖析中央银行在邮政储蓄恢复及发展历程中功能的转换,评析目前流行的改革方案,试图构建一个能够实现多赢并确保中央银行独立性的改革模式。     

The administered Bank rate and the Canada-U.S. spot exchange rate: 1975–1979

This paper analyzes, for the period 1975–1979, the announcement effect of the unanticipated Canadian administered Bank rate changes (the Bank rate is analogous to the discount rate in the U.S.) on the Canada-U.S. dollar spot exchange rate. Leading and/or lagged announcement effects are also investigated. By examining the behaviour of the residuals, on and surrounding the announced Bank rate changes, derived from an autoregressive equation of the daily changes (4:30 p.m. to noon the following day) in the logarithm of the spot $ Canadian/$ U.S. rate the evidence seems to indicate, on the average, a significant adjustment (appreciation of the Canadian dollar for Bank rate increases and depreciation for Bank rate decreases) of the exchange rate on the day of the effective unanticipated administered Bank rate changes regardless of the assumptions made with respect to the probability distribution of the residuals — whether it be normal, symmetric stable with a characteristic exponent of 1.8, or nonparametric.     

中央银行独立性、收入不平等与通货膨胀--来自中国的实证检验

本文就中国人民银行独立性、收入不平等对通货膨胀的影响机制进行了分析探讨.我们引入中央银行目标函数,对中央银行独立性、收入不平等与通货膨胀间的作用机制进行了模型推理分析.而后我们整合了转型国家中央银行独立性的测度方法,并用此方法对中国人民银行的独立性进行了详细测定.最后,通过计量分析检验了以下结论:收入不平等是引致通货膨胀的一个经验性因素;中央银行独立性越强,越能有效抑制收入不平等引起的通货膨胀.