Equity investment prospects in emerging markets

The Mexican debacle in late 1994 had a contagious, if short-lived impact on emerging markets. Evidence suggests that fund managers panicked and withdrew investments. Portfolio equity flows to emerging markets decreased by more than a third in 1995. The investor base shrank. The longterm case for investing in emerging markets is, however, very strong. Most of them are growing faster, some much faster, than developed countries, and are likely to yield higher returns on investment. By one estimate, emerging markets will increase their share of world stock market capitalization from 15 percent in 1995 to 45 percent in 2010. The article will review the trends in private capital flows and prospects for the future, focusing on opportunities in East Asia as an example. The author discusses the investment strategies that help explain the panic of 1995 and proposes a more analytical approach to investment in developed markets and the information needed to facilitate its adoption.     

Bond markets co-movement dynamics and macroeconomic factors: Evidence from emerging and frontier markets

This paper examines the co-movement dynamics of ten emerging and four frontier government bond markets with the US market and the impact of macroeconomic factors and global bond market uncertainty on the time-varying co-movement. We find that macroeconomic factors play important role in explaining time variations in the bond return co-movement. Specifically, domestic macroeconomic factors have higher relative importance than global factors, with domestic monetary policy and domestic inflationary environment identified as the most influential factors. The global bond market uncertainty, based on an implied volatility measure, has explanatory power in driving co-movement dynamics in emerging and frontier bond markets.     

Corporate governance and investment-cash flow sensitivity: Evidence from emerging markets

Controlling for country-level governance, we investigate how firms' corporate governance influences financing constraints. Using firm-level corporate governance rankings across 14 emerging markets, we find that better corporate governance lowers the dependence of emerging market firms on internally generated cash flows, and reduces financing constraints that would otherwise distort efficient allocation of investment and destroy firm value. Additionally and more importantly, firm-level corporate governance matters more significantly in countries with weaker country-level governance. This suggests substitutability between firm-specific and country-level governance in determining a firm's investment sensitivity to internal cash flows.     

Experience-based corporate corruption and stock market volatility: Evidence from emerging markets

This paper reassesses how “experience-based” corporate corruption affects stock market volatility in 14 emerging markets. We match the World Bank enterprise-level data on bribes with a unique cross-country macroeconomics dataset obtained from the World Bank development indicators. It is found that wider coverage of “realized” corporate corruption in the emerging markets investigated reduces the stock market volatility, attributed to decrease in uncertainty about government policy with regard to the business environment, as implied by the general equilibrium model of Pastor and Veronesi (2012). Overall, our results suggest that stock price volatility decreases as the uncertainty about government policy becomes more predictable, which is consistent with the testable hypotheses of Pastor and Veronesi (2012).     

Balancing social and political strategies in emerging markets: Evidence from India

This article explores the substitution and complementary effects between political and social strategies on firm performance in the context of an emerging market (EM). Using in‐depth, historical case‐study approach, the article investigates how companies integrate political and social resources in this market. Corporate performance includes traditional measures, such as accounting performance and nonfinancial measures like the ease of doing business. The study finds that social strategies are stronger enablers of firm long‐term performance than political strategies. The latter have a short‐term impact on performance, but their success over time is limited. The main drawback of reliance on political resources in EMs is the lack of political stability, fragmented polity, and weak political coalitions. We identify rather limited evidence of firms using these two strategies as complements. Thus, we suggest that firms should employ both these strategies in the EM.     

Corporate governance and firm performance in emerging markets: Evidence from Turkey

This is a study of the relationship between context, internal corporate governance and firm performance, looking at the case of Turkey, an exemplar of family capitalism. We found more concentrated ownership, often in the hands of families, led to firms performing better; concentrated ownership means that controlling families bear more of the risks of poor performance. Less predictably, given that the institutional environment is so well attuned to family ownership, we found that mechanisms that accord room for a greater range of voices and interests within and beyond families – larger boards and foreign ownership stakes – seem to also make for positive performance effects. We also noted that increase in cross ownership did not influence market performance, but was negatively associated with accounting performance. Conversely, we found that a higher proportion of family members on boards had no discernable effect on performance. Our findings provide further insights on the relationship between the type of institutions encountered in many emerging markets, internal corporate governance configurations and firm performance.     

The inner workings of the board: Evidence from emerging markets

We survey non-executive directors in emerging markets to obtain detailed information about the inner workings of corporate boards across a variety of institutional settings. We document substantial variation in the structure and conduct of boards as well as in directors' perceptions of the local legal environment. Our analysis indicates that directors who feel adequately empowered by local legislation are less likely to vote against board proposals. They also form boards that play a stronger role in the company's strategic decision-making. The evidence suggests that a supportive legal environment allows directors to focus more on their advisory role rather than on their monitoring role.     

Market integration in developed and emerging markets: Evidence from the CAPM

Beta, as measured by the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), is widely used for pricing stocks, determining the cost of capital, and gauging the extent to which markets are integrated. The CAPM model assumes that equilibrium conditions prevail. The choice of which market portfolio to use in the regression – the home country or global index – depends on the level of global market integration. We present several new empirical observations on the pricing of stocks and market integration. We provide guidance on how practitioners should calculate beta on securities in various developed and emerging markets.     

Including emerging markets in international momentum investment strategies

Momentum return investment strategies that diversify across countries provide lower portfolio standard deviations and/or increased expected returns. These diversification benefits are larger when adding emerging markets than when adding developed markets, and they are larger than would be suggested by diversifying with long-only portfolios. Using data on almost 16,000 firms from 22 developed and 18 emerging markets over the 1990–2004 period, we confirm the profitability of momentum trading strategies in both developed and emerging markets and document the diversification benefits of including emerging markets in an international momentum portfolio investment strategy.     

Market integration and contagion: Evidence from Asian emerging stock and foreign exchange markets

This paper examines whether Asian emerging stock markets (India, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand) have become integrated into world capital markets since their official liberalization dates by estimating and testing a dynamic integrated international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) in the absence of purchasing power parity (PPP) using an asymmetric multivariate GARCH(1,1)-in-Mean approach. Also examined in this paper is whether there are pure contagion effects between stock and foreign exchange markets for each Asian country during the 1997 Asian crisis. The empirical results show that first, both currency and world market risks are priced and time-varying, suggesting that an international asset pricing model under PPP and constant price of risk might give rise to model misspecification. Second, the stock markets for India, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand were segmented from the world capital markets before their liberalization dates, but all six markets have become fully integrated since then. Third, the market liberalization has reduced the cost of capital and price volatility for most of the countries. Finally, as for the contagion effects, strong positive impact of return shocks originating from the domestic stock market to its foreign exchange market during the crisis is found. This dynamic relationship between stock market and foreign exchange market is consistent with stock-oriented exchange rate models.     

Foreign direct investment,institutional quality,economic freedom and entrepreneurship in emerging markets

This study investigates the relationship between foreign direct investment, institutional quality, economic freedom, and entrepreneurship in emerging markets. The research compares the capacity and appetite for business creation among high-income, low-income and emerging countries. The results are based on a panel study of data, from 2004 to 2009 for 87 countries, using as its source “The World Bank Entrepreneurship Snapshots” to look at the connection between business creation, institutional quality, market freedom and foreign direct investment (FDI). The findings reveal a strong positive relationship between institutional quality and business generation in all three of the above categories. The freedom to create businesses and invest has an impact on business generation in emerging countries, while the influence of international trade appears more important as a spur to the genesis of business in low-income countries. Finally, there is a direct and significant relationship between FDI and business development in emerging countries. This result is consistent with “the spillover theory of entrepreneurship” (,  and ).     

Examining the returns of American depository receipts: Evidence from emerging and developed markets

The purpose of this article is to explain the returns of American Depository Receipts (ADRs), comparing the results across emerging and developed markets. Using a sample of 167 ADRs from 14 emerging and 17 developed markets (31 markets in total) for the period 2000–2004, we found variations in the impacts of specific variables and in the explanatory power of models associated with the annual holding‐period return of firms. Dividing ADRs into emerging and developed markets suggests that firm size and local market conditions influenced returns in the two groups in similar ways. However, firm‐specific business risk and country‐specific economic risk are only important to emerging markets' ADRs, while country‐specific exchange‐rate variables are more important to developed markets' ADRs. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The financial determinants of corporate cash holdings: Evidence from some emerging markets

This paper investigates corporate cash holdings in developing countries. In particular, we look into the effect of capital structure and dividend policy on cash holdings in Brazil, Russia, India, and China and compare our results with a control sample from the US and the UK. Our sample contains 1992 firms across these countries for the period 2002–2008. We employ Instrumental Variables analysis to control for the endogeneity of the financial policies (cash holdings, capital structure, and dividend policy). Our results show some evidence that capital structure and dividend policy affect cash holdings. There are similarities between developed and developing countries on the factors determining corporate cash holdings. The results of our cross-country model provide evidence that capital structure, dividend policy, and firm size are important factors in determining cash holdings. Finally, we show that firms operating in countries with low shareholder protection hold more cash.     

A componovation perspective of innovation in emerging markets: Evidence from Indian organizations

In todays market landscape firms can effectively compete without the benefit of resource advantages, proprietary technology, or market power but by being more aligned towards creative combination and responsive innovation. This study approaches the concept of componovation from the composition based view (CBV) developed by Luo and Child. The CBV emphasizes how firms with ordinary resource endowments can achieve outstanding results through the creative use of open resources and unique integrating capabilities that result in an enhanced speed and a value‐price ratio that are well suited to large numbers of mass market consumers. Thus componovation is a new approach aimed at innovation in emerging markets.     

Size,value, and momentum in emerging market stock returns

In this paper, we examine value and momentum effects in 18 emerging stock markets. Using stock level data from January 1990 to December 2011, we find strong evidence for the value effect in all emerging markets and the momentum effect for all but Eastern Europe. We investigate size patterns in value and momentum. After forming portfolios sorted on size and book-to-market ratio, as well as size and lagged momentum, we use three well-known factor models to explain the returns for these portfolios based on factors constructed using local, U.S., and aggregate global developed stock markets data. Local factors perform much better, suggesting emerging market segmentation.     

Exchange rate effects of US government shutdowns: Evidence from both developed and emerging markets

We examine the exchange rate effects of US government shutdowns using historical exchange rate data covering 19 episodes of government shutdowns. We find that major currency exchange rates generally tend to appreciate vis-à-vis the US dollar, and foreign exchange volatility tends to increase in response to shutdowns. We show that the effect of shutdowns is felt most one day after a shutdown and the effect dies out for most currencies within five days of a shutdown. These results pass a range of robustness tests which control for day-of-the-week effects, model specifications, and the Global Financial Crisis.     

Firm-level determinants of gender diversity in the boardrooms: Evidence from some emerging markets

This paper examines the determinants of board gender diversity in the context of emerging economies. Specifically, we investigate the impact of organizational characteristics on gender diversity in the boardrooms of Brazilian, Russian, Indian and Chinese firms and compare our findings with a control sample from US and UK. Analysing data for 1002 firms between a period of 2005 and 2012, we find some similarities between developed and emerging economies on the factors determining women representation on boards. In particular, we observe board gender diversity is positively related to the firm size, and it is inversely related to corporate risk across both emerging and developed economies. Family control affects positively board gender diversity only in India, China, UK and US. However, in contrast to developed countries, there is some evidence to suggest that state ownership has a negative effect on board gender diversity in India and Russia.     

The role of government affiliation in explaining firm innovativeness and profitability in emerging countries: Evidence from China

Drawing from institutional polycentrism, we advance understanding of how affiliation with different government levels influences innovativeness and profitability in emerging countries. Our framework suggests that as different government levels vary in their objectives and resources, they affect firm innovativeness vis-à-vis profitability in qualitatively different ways. The analysis of 18,430 Chinese firms shows that affiliation with higher-level governments enhances firms’ innovativeness, whereas affiliation with lower-level governments is effective for enhancing profitability. Our framework also clarifies how location-specific institutional substitution occurs, indicating that the usefulness of government affiliation for innovativeness depends on how effectively legal institutions protect intellectual property in each region.     

What drives the growth of shadow banks? Evidence from emerging markets

The present study analyses the factors affecting the growth of Non-Banking Financial Institutions (NBFI) and finance companies in 11 emerging market economies (EMEs) that the FSB monitors. Using data for the period 2002 to 2019 and employing the panel corrected standard errors (PCSE) method, the results indicate that the growth of banks, search for yield, demand from institutional investors, and bank regulations are the key factors affecting the growth of NBFI.Further, the study highlights the impact of different types of bank regulations on the NBFI growth in EMEs. While the capital regulations tend to restrict their growth, activity restrictions and restrictions for financial conglomerates boost NBFI growth. Thus, stringent bank regulations create arbitrage opportunities for non-banks.