The causal dynamics between renewable energy,real GDP,emissions and oil prices: evidence from OECD countries

This study extends the empirical literature on the determinants of renewable energy consumption in the case of 25 OECD countries for the period 1980–2011. Preliminary analysis suggests the presence of cross-sectional dependence within the panel data. As a result, second-generation panel unit root tests of Smith et al. (2004) and Pesaran (2007) are undertaken to find the respective variables that are integrated of order one. Panel cointegration and error correction modelling reveal that a long-run relationship exists between renewable energy consumption per capita, real GDP per capita, carbon dioxide emissions per capita and real oil prices. The long-run elasticity estimates are positive and statistically significant for real GDP per capita, carbon dioxide emissions per capita and real oil prices. The panel error correction model shows that a feedback relationship exists among the variables.     

Foreign Direct Investment Inflows and Economic Growth: The Case of Korea

The current study examines the relationship between FDI inflows and economic growth of Korea and tests the Bhagwati hypothesis which says that FDI inflow is more beneficial to economic growth in an open trade regime in a multivariate framework. Unlike previous works on the concerned hypothesis, a small‐sample cointegration test is applied to the time‐series data. There is no evidence of cointegration among the variables. The Granger causality test results show that, although FDI inflows do not cause per capita real GDP, the latter is revealed to cause the former when the economic crisis dummy variable is included. There is a unidirectional short‐run causality from domestic investment to per capita real GDP growth rate. The case of Korea does not support the Bhagwati hypothesis.     

Trade and regional growth in Spain: panel cointegration in a small sample

In this article, we test for the existence of a relationship between per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and trade, for 15 Spanish Autonomous Communities between 1988 and 2004, using a panel cointegration methodology. In particular, we implement several panel unit root tests (Maddala and Wu, 1999; Levin et al., 2002; Im et al., 2003) and panel cointegration tests (Pedroni, 1999, 2004), with a special attention to their behaviour in a small sample. We also develop a Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimation (SURE) residual based test, in order to explicitly take into account the cross regional correlation pattern. Appropriate confidence intervals are estimated with a sieve bootstrap designed for our small time sample, preserving the dependence structure among cross sectional units. Our cointegration tests reject the existence of a significant relationship between GDP per capita and exports. However, we do find some evidence of a significant relationship between GDP per capita and imports or with total trade.     

中国经济增长与环境污染——基于时序数据的经验分析(1985～2003)

本文选用1985￣2003年期间我国的六类环境污染指标,从时序维度考察了环境污染与我国人均收入变化之间的长期均衡关系和相互作用机制。首先,基于MaddalaandKim提出的改进的Johansen协整检验结果表明,在具有协整关系的四类变量中,只有二氧化硫排放总量与人均GDP之间存在正的协整关系,其他三类污染指标(工业废水排放量、工业烟尘排放量、工业固体废弃物排放量)与人均GDP之间协整关系均为负,这表明发展中国家的经济增长并不必然导致环境的恶化;其次,分别基于误差修正模型的因果关系检验与TodaandYamamoto提出的Granger因果检验方法考察了六类污染指标与人均GDP之间的双向因果关系,研究发现环境污染与我国人均GDP之间的一般规律:人均GDP是导致污染排放量变化的重要原因,但污染排放并不是导致人均GDP变化的原因。     

Financial reforms and credit growth in Nigeria: empirical insights from ARDL and ECM techniques

In the last 37 years, Nigeria has undergone several stages of financial reforms with different impacts on the economy. This paper analyses the impact of these financial reforms on credit growth in Nigeria using annual data from 1980 to 2016. The research work hinges on the theoretical underpinning of McKinnon-Shaw hypothesis on the relevance of financial reforms in a lagging economy. Analysing the data with autoregressive distributed lag error correction representation and bounds testing techniques, we find evidence supporting this hypothesis, and specifically that at higher real interest rates there is increased financial intermediation evidenced by credit growth. Other findings are that in the long-run, financial system deposits, inflation rate and per capita GDP are strong asymmetrical predictors of credit growth and real interest rates (the financial reform indicator), while the short-run relationships are indicator-specific. We further show that a long-run cointegration relationship exists between domestic credit and other covariates and likewise between the real interest rate and its regressors.     

Economic growth and carbon emissions: evidence from CIVETS countries

ABSTRACT

This paper examines whether a long-run relationship exists between CO₂ emissions and selected variables: real gross domestic product per capita, inward stock of foreign direct investments, gross fixed capital formation, industry, value added and energy use per capita for Colombia, Indonesia, Viet Nam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa countries in the period of 1989–2016. We used panel unit root testing, followed by panel cointegration tests and panel causality. The results clearly prove the existence of a bidirectional long-run causal relationship between all the variables except between CO₂ emissions and GDP and CO₂ emissions and GFCF. Major finding of the short-run causality analysis is that CO₂ emission in the short run does not result in changes of other variables. On the other hand, all variables except foreign direct investments (FDI) cause the changes in the CO₂ emissions, and there is a positive bidirectional causal relationship between GDP and FDI, between GFCF and FDI, and between GFCF and IVA. Finally, positive unidirectional causal relationship also exists, running from GDP to IVA, GDP to ENUSE, IVA to FDI and ENUSE to FDI.     

Terms of trade and economic growth in Japan and Korea: an empirical analysis

This study examines the impact of terms of trade and terms of trade volatility on economic growth in Japan and Korea using time series data. The results of the Johansen (1988) cointegration method show that real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and terms of trade are jointly determined. Generally, an increase in terms of trade volatility will lead to a decrease in real GDP per capita. An increase in oil price will lead to a decrease in terms of trade. The results of the generalised forecast error variance decompositions show that the important contributors to real GDP per capita are different between Japan and Korea. A favourable and a less volatile terms of trade are important for economic growth.     

ASSESSING THE IMPACTS OF LABOR MARKET AND DETERRENCE VARIABLES ON CRIME RATES IN MEXICO

Many studies examine the relationship between crime rates and various economic and/or sociodemographic variables in high income countries, but similar efforts for middle and low income countries are less common. Utilizing an 8‐year panel data sample for all 32 states in Mexico, this study assesses the impact of Mexican labor market and deterrence variables on various Mexican crime rates. The principal results indicate that: (1) State gross domestic product (GDP) per capita has ambiguous effect on crime rates under different conditions. Both wages and unemployment rates are negatively linked with crime rates. (2) Although the Mexican judicial and public security systems are widely believed to be ineffective, increased federal police forces and incarceration rates are associated with lower crime rates, but higher public security expenditure per capita is associated with higher crime rates. (3) The impacts from labor market and deterrence variables presented in (1) and (2) continue to hold under the Fox administration as well as for non‐border states. Their respective impacts diminish, however, under the Calderon administration as well as for border states because of the small number of observations. Overall, the results indicate that increasing average wages, federal police forces, and incarceration rates would have significant impacts on reducing crime rates in Mexican states. (JEL O54, K42)     

Housing and the Great Depression

This article considers the structural stability of the relationship between the real housing price and real GDP per capita for an annual sample that includes the Great Depression. We test for structural change in parameter values using a sample of annual US data from 1890 to 1952. The article examines the long-run and short-run dynamic relationships between the real housing price and real GDP per capita to determine whether these relationships experienced structural change over the sample period. We find that temporal Granger causality exists between these two variables only for subsamples that include the Great Depression. For the other subsample periods as well as for the entire sample period, no relationship exists between these variables.     

Crime rates,male youth unemployment and real income in Australia: evidence from Granger causality tests

This article applies Granger causality tests to examine the relationship between seven different categories of property crime and violent crime against the person, male youth unemployment and real male average weekly earnings in Australia from 1964 to 2001 within a cointegration and vector error correction framework. It is found that fraud, homicide and motor vehicle theft are cointegrated with male youth unemployment and real male average weekly earnings. However, there is no evidence of a long-run relationship between either break and enter, robbery, serious assault or stealing with male youth unemployment and real male average weekly earnings.     

Modeling crime in Japan

This study aims at identifying the factors of aggregate and disaggregate crime categories in Japan over the period 1964–2009. All crime categories are related to police outlays, police numbers, unemployment, divorce and urbanization rates. Bounds testing approach to cointegration is implemented to test the existence of a long-run relationship amongst the variables. Cointegration analysis yields that the main deterrent effect on crime is the police presence and this factor is further confirmed by the real police outlays. As for the essential cause of crime, urbanization stands as the leading factor which is followed by divorce and unemployment rates. Policy implications are discussed.     

Does More Consumption Promote Real GDP Growth?

This paper employs Hansen's (1999) panel threshold regression model [Journal of Econometrics 39 (1999) 345–68] based on a time series dataset of 109 countries from 1960 to 2007 to investigate the threshold relationship between the change in real GDP per capita and the consumption size (consumption‐income ratio, APC). The results show that the consumption level should not exceed the 49.68% threshold of real GDP per capita for each country regardless of the income level. Also, the relationship between the change in real GDP per capita and the consumption size seems to have ‘Armey curve’ or ‘inverted‐U shape’ characteristic. In order to promote real GDP growth, our results suggest that the high‐income, low‐APC countries should encourage more consumption while the low‐income, high‐APC countries should encourage more saving.     

Population and economic growth: a cointegration analysis of lesser developed countries

The authors examine the temporal relationship between population growth and economic growth in Nepal, India, Ghana, Sri Lanka, Bolivia, Philippines, Guatemala, Syria, Peru, Thailand, Chile, Argentina, and Mexico, conducting Granger-causality tests in the context of error correction models when cointegration is present. Their goal is to provide additional time series econometric evidence on the short-run and long-run time series behavior of population growth and the growth of real per capita gross domestic product for a sample of low to middle income developing countries. Cointegration was found in only 3 of the 13 countries examined. Even though 10 countries in this study exhibited no properties of cointegration, researchers conducting time series studies of the relationship between population growth and economic growth using differenced data should nonetheless evaluate the possible long-term relationship. Capturing the short- and long-run behaviors of the respective time series may give the researcher a more robust test of Granger-causality.     

中国能源消费与经济发展的动态关系研究

运用协整理论,研究了1953--2006年中国能源消费与实际GDP之间的关系。结果表明：中国能源消费和实际GDP之间存在协整关系。建立了能源消费与实际GDP之间的误差修正模型,并通过基于误差修正模型的格兰杰因果关系检验分析了中国能源消费和实际GDP之间的因果关系。结果表明：存在能源消费到实际GDP的短期格兰杰因果关系,存在实际GDP到能源消费的长期格兰杰因果关系。采用HP滤波技术分离出能源消费和实际GDP的趋势成分和周期成分,对能源消费和实际GDP的趋势成分、周期成分之间的关系进行分析。结果表明,能源消费和实际GDP的趋势成分之间存在共同趋势,能源消费和实际GDP的波动成分具有相同的波动特征。最后得出结论：中国能源消费与实际GDP之间的协整关系与经济增长和能源消费的共同波动有关。     

An analysis of the cost-effectiveness of switching from biphasic human insulin 30, insulin glargine,or neutral protamine Hagedorn to biphasic insulin aspart 30 in people with type 2 diabetes

Abstract

Aims:

The aim of this analysis was to assess the cost-effectiveness of switching from biphasic human insulin 30 (BHI), insulin glargine (IGlar), or neutral protamine Hagedorn (NPH) insulin (all?±?oral glucose-lowering drugs [OGLDs]) to biphasic insulin aspart 30 (BIAsp 30) in people with type 2 diabetes in India, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia.

Methods:

The IMS CORE Diabetes Model was used to determine the clinical outcome, costs, and cost-effectiveness of switching from treatment with BHI, IGlar, or NPH to BIAsp 30 over a 30-year time horizon. A 1-year analysis was also performed based on quality-of-life data and treatment costs. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were expressed as a fraction of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and cost-effectiveness was defined as ICER <3-times GDP per capita.

Results:

Switching treatment from BHI, IGlar, or NPH to BIAsp 30 was associated with an increase in life expectancy of >0.7 years, reduction in all diabetes-related complications, and was considered as cost-effective or highly cost-effective in India, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia (BHI to BIAsp 30, 0.26 in India, 1.25 in Indonesia, 0.01 in Saudi Arabia; IGlar to BIAsp 30, ?0.68 in India, ?0.21 in Saudi Arabia; NPH to BIAsp 30, 0.15 in India, ?0.07 in Saudi Arabia; GDP per head per annum/quality-adjusted life-year). Cost-effectiveness was maintained in the 1-year analyses.

Conclusions:

Switching from treatment with BHI, IGlar, or NPH to BIAsp 30 (all?±?OGLDs) was found to be cost-effective in India, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia, both in the long and short term.     

基于经济指标构建的社会稳定风险评估研究

本文选用人均GDP、 GDP增速、基尼系数、物价指数和失业率等5项经济指标对社会稳定风险进行了评估,结果表明：国际横向比较,我国社会稳定程度目前处于中等偏上水平,主要得分在高速的GDP增长、较低的物价指数和失业率方面;自身纵向比较,我国社会稳定风险近年呈加大趋势,主要失分在贫富差距扩大和通货膨胀压力上升方面。笔者的分析结果显示,确保在贫富分化项上不再失分甚至有所加分,即确保贫富差距不再扩大并力争有所缩小,对于保持社会稳定极其重要。     

An Analysis of Exports and Growth in India: Cointegration and Causality Evidence (1971–2001)

The relationship between exports and economic growth has been analysed by a number of recent empirical studies. This paper re‐examines the sources of growth for the period 1971–2001 for India. It builds upon Feder's (1983 ) model to investigate empirically the relationship between export growth and GDP growth (the export led growth hypothesis), using recent data from the Reserve Bank of India, and by focusing on GDP growth and GDP growth net of exports. We investigate the following hypotheses: (i) whether exports, imports and GDP are cointegrated using the Johansen approach and Breitung's nonparametric cointegration test; (ii) whether export growth Granger causes GDP growth; (iii) and whether export growth Granger causes investment. Finally, a VAR is constructed and impulse response functions (IRFs) are employed to investigate the effects of macroeconomic shocks.     

Okun's Law Does the Austrian unemployment–GDP relationship exhibit structural breaks?

Okun's Law postulates an inverse relationship between movements of the unemployment rate and the real gross domestic product (GDP). Initial empirical estimates for US data indicate that a two to three percent GDP growth rate above the natural or average GDP growth rate causes unemployment to decrease by one percentage point and vice versa. In this investigation we check whether this postulated relationship exhibits structural breaks by means of Markov-Chain Monte Carlo methods. We estimate a regression model, where the parameters are allowed to switch between different states and the switching process is Markov. As a by-product we derive an estimate of the current state within the periods considered. Using quarterly Austrian data on unemployment and real GDP from 1977 to 1995 we infer only one state, i.e. there are no structural breaks. The estimated parameters demand for an excess GDP growth rate of 4.16% to decrease unemployment by 1 percentage point. Since only one state is inferred, we conclude that the Austrian economy exhibits a stable relationship between unemployment and GDP growth. First version received: January 2000/Final version received: October 2000     

Questioning the empirical basis of the environmental Kuznets curve for CO2: New evidence from a panel stationarity test robust to multiple breaks and cross-dependence

This paper investigates the time series properties of per capita CO₂ emissions and per capita GDP levels for a sample of 86 countries over the period 1960-2000. For that purpose, we employ a state-of-the-art panel stationarity test which incorporates multiple shifts in level and slope, thereby controlling for cross-sectional dependence through bootstrap methods. Our analysis renders clear-cut evidence that per capita GDP levels are nonstationary for the world as a whole while per capita CO₂ is found to be regime-wise trend stationary. The analysis of country-groups shows that for Africa and Asia, per capita CO₂ is best described as nonstationary, while per capita GDP appears stationary around a broken trend. In addition, we find evidence of regime-wise trend stationarity in both variables for the country-groups consisting of America, Europe and Oceania. The results of our analysis carry important implications for the statistical modelling of the Environmental Kuznets curve for CO₂, since the differing order of integration in both variables for the world as a whole and for Africa and Asia calls into question the validity of panel cointegration techniques which assume that both variables are nonstationary and cointegrated with one another. Cointegration techniques would not be appropriate either for the case of America, Europe and Oceania which are characterised by per capita GDP and CO₂ emissions being stationary around a broken trend. Similar conclusions are reached when we analyse country-groups based on levels of development. Failure to properly characterise the time series properties of the data by not controlling for an unknown number of structural breaks and for cross-sectional dependence could be responsible for the fragility and lack of robustness surrounding the estimation of environmental Kuznets curves.