Venture capital in transition: A Monte-Carlo simulation of changes in investment patterns

This article examines the nature of the investment process which has historically generated high returns for venture capital funds, and the impact on fund returns of perceived changes in management practice and the structure of the industry. The article outlines some policy implications for fund managers, investors, and the general management of corporations.The authors have investigated the investment process and the changes in the nature of the process through the use of a Monte-Carlo simulation model. Information gathered from interviews with fund managers and the available published data on venture fund performance (including proprietary surveys) was used to develop and calibrate the model. The model replicates the relatively high average fund returns and distribution of returns for funds through the early 1980s. The model simulates a multistaged investment process which draws on a pool of investment opportunities which have a log normal distribution of returns and a low (zero) average return. The model readily permits the exploration of the impact of management and industry practices on fund returns.The conditions identified by the authors, which led to high rates of return on the part of venture capital funds, include:

• 1.1) multistaged investment or commitment of funds on an incremental basis with evaluation of venture performance before commitment of additional fund;
• 2.2) objective evaluation of venture performance with the clear distinguishing of winners from losers;
• 3.3) parlaying funds or having the confidence to commit further funds to ventures identified as winners;
• 4.4) persistence of returns from one round to the next, which implies that valuable information is gained from previous rounds of investment in the same venture;
• 5.5) long-term holding of investment portfolios for a period sufficient for geometric averaging of compound returns to cause the winners to “take over” or raise portfolio returns.

Taken together, these conditions have permitted venture capital funds to historically realize strong average returns with a few of them realizing extraordinary returns.The article also explores the consequences of what some believe is happening in the industry: a trend toward holding investments for shorter periods, increased competition both for investments and later in the product-market arena, and a growing lack of loyalty between investors and investees. All of these conditions and their indirect consequences were shown by the model to negatively impact the limited partners in the venture capital funds while general partners, given the structure of fees and the distribution of investment returns, generally realized a reasonable to extraordinary return. The article outlines a number of management and investment policy implications for investors and fund managers.     

Publicly traded venture capital funds: implications for institutional “fund of funds” investors

Institutional investors supply the bulk of the funds which are used by venture capital investment firms in financing emerging growth companies. These investors typically place their funds in a number of venture capital firms, thus achieving diversification across a range of investment philosophy, geography, management, industry, investment life cycle stage and type of security. Essentially, each institutional investor manages a “fund of funds,” attempting through the principles of portfolio theory to reduce the risk of participating in the venture capital business while retaining the up-side potential which was the original source of attraction to the business. Because most venture capital investment firms are privately held limited partnerships, it is very difficult to measure risk adjusted rates of return on these funds on a continuous basis.In this paper, we use the set of twelve publicly traded venture capital firms as a proxy to develop insight regarding the risk reduction effect of investment in a portfolio of venture capital funds, i.e., a fund of funds. Measurements of weekly total returns for the shares of these funds are compared with similar returns on a set of comparably sized “maximum capital gain” mutual funds and the daily return of the S&P 500 Index. A comparison of returns on an individual fund basis, as well as a correlation of daily returns of these individual funds, were made. In order to adjust for any systematic bias resulting from the “thin market” characteristic of the securities of the firms being observed, the Scholes-Williams beta estimation technique was used to reduce the effects of nonsynchronous trading.The results indicate that superior returns are realized on such portfolios when compared with portfolios of growth-oriented mutual funds and with the S&P 500 Index. This is the case whether the portfolios are equally weighted (i.e., “naive”) or constructed to be mean-variant efficient, ex ante, according to the capital asset pricing model. When compared individually, more of the venture funds dominated the S&P Market Index than did the mutual funds and by much larger margins. When combined in portfolios, the venture capital funds demonstrated very low beta coefficients and very low covariance of returns among portfolio components when compared with portfolios of mutual funds. To aid in interpreting these results, we analyzed the discounts and premia from net asset value on the funds involved and compared them to Thompson's findings regarding the contribution of such differences to abnormal returns. We found that observed excess returns greatly exceed the level which would be explained by these differences.The implications of these results for the practitioner are significant. They essentially tell us that, while investment in individual venture capital deals is considered to have high risk relative to potential return, combinations of deals (i.e., venture capital portfolios) were shown to produce superior risk adjusted returns in the market place. Further, these results show that further combining these portfolios into larger portfolios (i.e., “funds of funds”) provides even greater excess returns over the market index, thus plausibly explaining the “fund of funds” approach to venture capital investment taken by many institutional investors.While the funds studied are relatively small and are either small business investment companies or business development companies, they serve as a useful proxy for the organized venture capital industry, despite the fact that the bulk of the funds in the industry are institutionally funded, private, closely held limited partnerships which do not trade continuously in an open market. These results demonstrate to investors the magnitude of the differences in risk adjusted total return between publicly traded venture capital funds and growth oriented mutual funds on an individual fund basis. They also demonstrate to investors the power of the “fund of funds” approach to institutional involvement in the venture capital business. Because such an approach produces better risk adjusted investment results for the institutional investor, it seems to justify a greater flow of capital into the business from more risk averse institutional investment sources. This may mean greater access to institutional funds for those seeking to form new venture capital funds. For entrepreneurs seeking venture capital funds for their young companies, it may also mean a lower potential cost of capital for the financing of business venturing. From the viewpoint of public policy makers interested in facilitating the funding of business venturing, it may provide insight regarding regulatory issues surrounding taxation and the barriers and incentives which affect venture capital investment.     

Do Socially Responsible Fund Managers Really Invest Differently?

To date, research into socially responsible investment (SRI), and in particular the socially responsible investment funds industry, has focused on whether investing in SRI assets has any differential impact on investor returns. Prior findings generally suggest that, on a risk-adjusted basis, there is no difference in performance between SRI and conventional funds. This result has led to questions about whether SRI funds are really any different from conventional funds. This paper examines whether the portfolio allocation across industry sectors and the stock-picking ability of SRI managers are different when compared to conventional fund managers. The study finds that SRI funds exhibit different industry betas consistent with different portfolio positions, but that these differences vary from year to year. It is also found that there is little difference in stock-picking ability between the two groups of fund managers.     

The Use and Abuse of Mutual Fund Expenses

Prior research shows that mutual fund investors are often aware of up-front charges like sales loads, but they are less mindful of annual operating expenses, even though both types of fees lower overall performance. This study documents the historical trend and recent abuse of annual mutual fund expenses. As the industry becomes more adept at segmenting customers by level of investment sophistication, we claim that load mutual fund companies take advantage of this ability and charge higher expenses to their target customer: the less-knowledgeable investor. No-load fund companies, which tend to attract the more sophisticated investor, offer lower expenses. For example, over 2000–2004 the average annual expense ratio of load equity funds was 50 basis points higher than no-load equity funds. We show evidence of this widening cost disparity since the early 1990s among new and existing equity, bond, and index funds. We also document a growing abuse of sales distribution or 12b-1 fees among funds that are closed to new investors, almost all of which are load funds. Thus, load fund investors are more susceptible to paying higher expenses and receiving lower returns over time. Todd Houge is an Assistant Professor of Finance at the University of Iowa. Jay Wellman is an Assistant Professor of Finance at Binghamton University.     

公路运输业资本运营策略分析

我国公路运输业的资本运营水平普遍较低,本文对适用于公路运输企业的一些资本运营策略进行了分析,包括筹资策略、并购策略、资本组合策略,并对建立交通运输业投资基金的可行性作了分析。     

我国偏股型开放式基金合理规模分析

我国的开放式基金经过近五年的迅猛发展,无论在基金家数上还是在规模差异上均不断扩大.本文从实证的角度出发,通过对同类的开放式基金(以偏股型基金为例)的不同规模与其绩效之间关系的考察,揭示基金规模与绩效变化趋势之间的规律,为投资者的基金投资提供时机选择的依据.     

The performance of socially responsible equity mutual funds: Evidence from Sweden

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of socially responsible (SR) funds in Sweden by assessing fund managers' abilities and performances across different market states. These issues are analyzed at the aggregate and individual fund levels. The paper also presents several new statistical tests that allow more precise inferences about differences in performance and the variability in fund returns arising from different benchmarks. In general, SR and conventional funds perform similarly to the market. At the aggregate level, SR funds investing in Sweden and Europe perform similarly to conventional funds, while those investing globally tend to underperform. This underperformance seems to be linked with poor selectivity abilities of global SR fund managers. For individual funds, the performance of both types of funds is more similar. Most funds perform similarly in crisis periods compared to non‐crisis periods. Overall, our results are consistent with a mature market for SR investing and support the view that the similar performance of SR and conventional funds is associated with the mainstreaming of SR investment in Sweden. These findings encourage SR investing both by socially conscious investors, who wish to align their social values with their investment decisions, as well as by conventional investors, who will not be penalized by investing in these funds. We also call attention to the difficulties investors face when trying to identify funds with high social standards, considering that there is scarce information on the extent to which each fund (SR or conventional) holds stocks that comply with ethical and social criteria.     

PROFIT SHARING IN HEDGE FUNDS

In a new scheme for hedge fund managerial compensation known as the first‐loss scheme, a fund manager uses her investment in the fund to cover any fund losses first; by contrast, in the traditional scheme currently used in most US funds, the manager does not cover investors' losses in the fund. We propose a framework based on cumulative prospect theory to compute and compare the trading strategies, fund risk, and managers' and investors' utilities in these two schemes analytically. The model is calibrated to the historical attrition rates of US hedge funds. We find that with reasonable parameter values, both fund managers' and investors' utilities can be improved and fund risk can be reduced simultaneously by replacing the traditional scheme (with 10% internal capital and 20% performance fee) with a first‐loss scheme (with 10% first‐loss capital and 30% performance fee). When the performance fee in the first‐loss scheme is 40% (a current market practice), however, such substitution renders investors worse off.     

Does socially responsible mutual fund performance vary over the business cycle? New insights on the effect of idiosyncratic SR features

This study analyses the performance and market timing of US socially responsible (SR) mutual funds in relation to business cycle regime shifts and different grouping criteria: Ethical strategy focus, SR attributes scores and Morningstar category. Different methodologies are applied and results highlight the importance of considering specific benchmarks related to the investment style in evaluating the SR fund performance. Our results show that, in aggregate, the abnormal performance of SR funds is negative and significant in expansion periods, but no significant differences are found in recession periods. When specific benchmarks are considered, performance improves in recession periods, particularly for environmental funds, those with high SR attributes scores, and funds from the nine Morningstar style box categories. Market timing of SR funds takes positive values and is partially significant. Previous evidence of negative timing after a recent financial crisis vanishes when specific benchmarks are considered. For comparative purposes the performance of conventional US mutual funds is also analysed. There are no significant differences between the performance of SR and conventional mutual funds when a fair comparison is made within the same style categories. When all the SR funds are considered, they underperform conventional funds in expansion sub‐periods, but in recession sub‐periods they perform better, although the differences observed are not significant.     

Portfolio concentration and closed-end fund discounts: Evidence from the China market

This paper provides an analysis of the determinants of the closed-end fund discount in Mainland China. We focus on the diversification level of closed-end funds as the investor clienteles for closed-end funds in Mainland China are different from other markets. Our empirical evidence shows that discount is strongly and negatively related to stock concentration as measured by the number of stocks in the fund or Herfindahl index. We also find the discount decreases with the dividend payout and turnover, suggesting that investors are willing to pay a higher price (lower discount) for a fund that pays more dividends and has higher turnover.     

基于分形维的基金投资风格识别及漂移量化研究

有效市场假说已受到越来越多的现实挑战,文章在分析我国股市风格呈分形特征的基础上,把分形市场理论探索性地引入到基金投资风格领域,提出了基于分形维数的投资风格识别方法,并以我国79只开放式股票型基金为样本进行实证研究。结果表明：该方法能较好对基金投资风格进行准确性识别,大部分基金具有风格错配现象,比现有的两种主流风格识别方法更符合目前分形市场的现实背景,为基金经理与投资者提供了一种更加贴近现实市场的投资风格识别方法,使识别效果更加准确客观;并借鉴基尼系数的思想构建了风格一致性指标(CIS)来量化投资风格漂移程度,结果发现78.5%的基金发生了一定程度的风格漂移现象,风格一致性与风格漂移较严重的基金较少,这与证券市场非完全有效呈分形特征有关。     

Fund Loyalty Among Socially Responsible Investors: The Importance of the Economic and Ethical Domains

The corporate social responsibility literature has emphasized the importance of both economic and ethical domains of corporate behavior. Analyzing unprecedented survey data from investors in a socially responsible (SR) mutual fund, this article considers how economic and ethical concerns shape shareholder investment behavior. In particular, this article analyzes levels of investor fund loyalty, defined as the continued investment in a mutual fund despite the belief that one is earning a lower return on investment. Building upon existing research that shows SR fund assets are more stable than conventional fund assets, this article leverages within respondent comparisons to clarify that dual investors (i.e., those who invest in both SR and conventional funds) are more loyal to their SR fund than to their conventional fund. This suggests that a corporation’s ethical behavior attracts more patient investment capital, an important consideration for any corporation that is deciding to what degree it should engage in corporate social responsibility. In addition, this article empirically demonstrates that economic motivations reduce SR fund loyalty and that ethical motivations induce SR fund loyalty. This evidence that ethical motivation is associated with fund loyalty advances research on morality in the market by yielding empirical evidence to a largely theoretical debate.     

发展我国期货投资基金研究

国际期货市场发展的历程表明,以机构投资者为主体的投资者结构是期货市场走向成熟的一个重要标志。而期货投资基金正是机构投资者中非常重要的一种组织形式。发展期货投资基金不但有利于解决我国期货市场规模小、流动性差的问题,同时对我国资本市场的持续、健康、稳定发展也将起到巨大的推动作用。发展期货投资基金已经成为整个期货业和资本市场梦寐以求的目标。     

Managerial Sharing,Mutual Fund Connections,and Performance

In this study, we examine the effect of mutual fund connections, through managerial sharing, on performance and stock holding commonalities. Our analysis of return correlations and portfolio holdings indicates that more interconnected funds tend to buy and sell similar stocks, hence increasing the similarity of portfolio holdings and undermining the distinctiveness of their investment strategy. Our results also indicate that highly connected funds significantly underperform weakly connected funds by about 1.4% on a yearly risk‐adjusted basis. We show that fund family performance is unaffected by the intensity of fund connections, and that greater fund connections could significantly enhance family‐level profit margins.     

我国风险投资模式存在的问题与对策

风险投资在我国还是一个新兴的产业。本文针对目前风险投资模式存在的风险投资主体不健全,退出渠道不畅,政策法规不健全,发展的相关环境不佳等一系列问题,认为我国在风险资本筹资模式上,应建立多元化的民间风险资本供给主体,发挥政府在风险投资中积极的促进作用;在风险投资机构组织模式的选择上,应设立公开上市的二级风险投资基金,在公司制中发展有限合伙制的组织模式;在风险投资退出模式的选择上,则应针对不同情况,采取积极灵活的退出决策,减少退出风险。     

Growth patterns of the European venture capital industry

Although the European venture capital industry has become nearly as important as its American counterpart, little research has been done to describe its nature and importance. This study gives in the first place an overview of the importance of the venture capital industry in the major European countries. Thereafter, we look for funding and investment patterns in the different European countries. We hypothesize that there is a difference between countries in which the venture capital industry is just emerging, and those where the venture capital industry is since long established.The data are mainly, but not solely, taken from the yearly statistics of the European Venture Capital Association (EVCA) and cover the period 1984–1989. The characteristics we look at are: (1) the sources of the funds flowing into the industry, broken down with respect to investor type and geographical location of the investor; and (2) the investments, broken down with respect to investment stage (using the EVCA definitions of the different stages), geographical location, degree of syndication, and industrial sector of the investee companies. In Europe as a whole, the most important group of investors are the banks (28%), the pension funds (17%), and the insurance companies (12%). Banks dominate the Swiss industry (48%); corporate investors dominate the German, Swedish, and Portuguese industries, whereas these are nearly completely absent in Denmark (2%), Ireland (4%), and the United Kingdom (5%). Eighty percent of all venture capital funds are raised domestically, 7% in another European country, and the remaining 13% in a non-European country.Almost half of the European investments (44%) are made in the expansion stage; management buy-outs (MBOs) account for another 36%. Only 14% is invested in seed or start-up companies, much less than the 30% in the U.S. Half of the venture capital investments in the United Kingdom are buy-outs. The highest start-up investment activity takes place in Austria and Spain. On average, more than half (54%) of the invested amount in Europe is syndicated, but only 6% internationally, while 10% is invested internationally.We also search for similarities and dissimilarities in the characteristics of the sources of funds and of the investments. The hypothesis is that a growth pattern can be distinguished, determining the maturity of the venture capital industry in a particular country. The characteristics that we think would discriminate most among the different industry stages are the importance of government agencies, pension funds, and insurance companies (sources of funds); of start-up, later stages, or MBO investments; and the percentage of international and syndicated investments. Cluster analyses show that there is a growth pattern, but it is less clear than expected. Characteristics of mature industries are a bigger size, relative to the gross national product of the country, the presence of pension funds and insurance companies as investors in the industry, the syndication of the deals, and the absence of the government as an investor, in the 1980s, investments in management buy-outs are mainly done by the mature industries. No pattern can be distinguished for the investments in early or later stages.The major implication from this study is the fact that the European venture capital industry cannot be approached as a single, undifferentiated industry. Each country has its own structures, institutions, and policies, which make the venture capital industries in the different countries have unique characteristics. Moreover, the European venture capital industry has different characteristics than the American industry; this has to be taken into account when comparing both industries.     

Corporate culture,ethical stimulus,and managerial momentum: Theory and evidence

Research on organizational culture and ethical decision making has shown that ethical trainings predict and interact with other institutional variables to establish an ethical culture, while other studies suggest that the exposition of moral symbols leads to an increase of individuals' moral awareness. This study examines whether the relation between managerial momentum and fund performance is contingent upon ethical stimuli, team composition and interactions between them. It thus bestows insights to better inform institutional investors (including those working with mutual funds, pension funds, and insurance) about the nature and impact of ethical stimuli, when coupled with managers' momentum and team size, on the prediction of overall return of managed funds. I develop a new measure of managers' momentum termed “managerial momentum” and test our proposed theory and hypotheses using large samples of U.S. and Canadian mutual funds. The evidence reveals that there is sizeable positive effect of both corporate culture with its ethical dimensions and ethical stimulus on the fund performance. Furthermore, there is subtle evidence that both factors divulge additional information about the fund performance, but their effects are conditional on higher managerial momentum or team size, suggesting that managerial momentum alone is not sufficient. However, it is necessary to have the institutional ethical climate and/or managers' continuous ethical training to achieve viable and resilient investment opportunities tailored to the needs of different clienteles.     

Measuring Investors’ Socially Responsible Preferences in Mutual Funds

The aim of this study is to analyze investor behavior towards socially responsible mutual funds. The analysis is based on an experimental study where a sample of individuals takes investment decisions under different parameters of information about the investment alternatives and expected returns. In the experiment, each participant decides how to distribute an investment budget between two funds, returns on which are uncertain and change over time. Two treatments are conducted, each providing a different degree of information on the socially responsible (SR) character of one of the two investment alternatives. The results obtained suggest that although individuals’ criteria for investment are essentially guided by returns and diversification, participants invest significantly more in a fund when they are explicitly informed about its SR nature. In particular, participants who declare being concerned about SR actually invest significantly more in the SR alternative. Furthermore, the level of SR faithfulness among a small group of investors is such that they invest the main share of their budget in the SR fund, even when the return differential is highly unfavorable. Providing clear information about the SR characteristics of an investment is crucial to help investors express their preferences.     

The role of top management team human capital in venture capital markets: Evidence from first-time funds

This paper examines whether the human capital of first-time venture capital fund management teams can predict fund performance and finds that it can. I find that fund management teams with more task-specific human capital, as measured by more managers having past experience as venture capitalists and by more managers having past experience as executives at start-up companies, manage funds with greater fractions of portfolio company exits. I also find that fund management teams with more industry-specific human capital in strategy and management consulting and, to a lesser extent, engineering and non-venture finance manage funds with greater fractions of portfolio company exits. Perhaps counter-intuitively, I find that fund management teams that have more general human capital in business administration, as measured by more managers having MBAs, manage funds with lower fractions of portfolio company exits. Overall, measures of task- and industry-specific human capital are stronger predictors of fund performance than are measures of general human capital.     

现阶段我国风险投资发展探讨

随着我国加入WTO,我国风险投资将在今后10到20年内得到很大发展。当前是加快发展我国风险投资业,推动我国高新技术产业化发展和提升我国经济实力的有利时机。现阶段我国风险投资发展迫切需要解决改善投资主体内部治理结构,增强风险投资机构活力,增强风险投资的融资功能,培育风险投资持续支撑能力,构建多层次资本市场体系,疏通风险投资的“出口瓶颈”等问题。围绕这些问题,提出了十条具体措施来促进我国风险投资的发展。