Does financial liberalization improve the allocation of investment?: Micro-evidence from developing countries

Using firm level panel data from 12 developing countries we explore whether financial liberalization improves the efficiency with which investment funds are allocated. A summary index of the efficiency of investment allocation that measures whether investment funds are going to firms with a higher marginal return to capital is developed. We examine the relationship between this and various measures of financial liberalization and find that liberalization increases the efficiency with which investment funds are allocated. This holds after various robustness checks and is consistent with firm level evidence of a stronger association between investment and fundamentals after financial liberalization.     

Interest rate policy,effective demand,and growth in LDCs

Orthodox criticisms of ‘financial repression’ in LDCs argue that interest rate liberalization promotes investment and economic growth by increasing the supply of bank credit and improving the efficiency of credit allocation. The present paper develops a Kaleckian model in which increases in deposit interest rates may lower investment and growth by placing downward pressure on effective demand – even if interest rate liberalization results in decreased borrowing costs. The focus of the Kaleckian model on effective demand issues is then contrasted with prior criticisms of the proliberalization view. Finally, the relevance of the Kaleckian approach is demonstrated in connection with the important role of effective demand and distributional effects in the failure of the Chilean financial liberalization to promote a stable growth of output and investment.     

A Welfare Analysis of Capital Account Liberalization*

We develop a model of a small open economy with credit market frictions to analyze the consequences of capital account liberalization. We show that financial opening facilitates the inflows of cheap foreign funds and improves production efficiency. However, capital account liberalization has important distributional consequences. Specifically, it may be impossible to use public transfers to fully compensate the loss of those who are negatively affected by capital account liberalization. This explains why financial opening often meets fierce opposition even though it leads to efficiency gains for the economy as a whole. From a practical perspective, capital controls should be lifted gradually for a smooth transition.     

基于资本形成机制的林业金融支持体系构建研究

现阶段我国林业发展面临严峻的资本形成不足、资金短缺的困境,林业金融正是为弥补严重资金缺口而出现的一种创新制度安排,其基本职能在于实现对林业资本的动员和配置,林业投资风险规避与防范,以保证林业资本的顺畅循环、周转和有效流动,满足林业发展日益增强的资金需求。通过金融改进与金融创新,林业金融支持理应成为推进我国林业可持续发展的战略性机制和基本途径。本文基于金融战略视角,从林业资本形成、投资效率、金融运行三个维度进行分析,通过林业资本形成缺口模型梳理林业产业发展进程中金融支持的内生逻辑,为林业金融支持框架构建提供了理论依据,提出通过构建林业融资支持体系、林业金融工具创新体系、林业风险防范管理体系和林业收益保障四大体系解决林业资本形成不足的困境。     

Financialisation and Real Investment in the European Union: Beneficial or Prejudicial Effects?

This article presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between financialisation and real investment for non-financial corporations using panel data composed of 27 European Union countries over 19 years (1995 to 2013). On the one hand, financialisation leads to a rise in financial investments, diverting funds from real investments (‘crowding out’ effect); on the other, pressures from shareholders to intensify financial payments restrict the funds available for new real investments. We estimate an aggregate investment equation with the traditional variables (lagged investment, profitability, debt, cost of capital, corporate savings and output growth) and two further measures of financialisation (financial receipts and financial payments). The findings demonstrate that financialisation has damaged real investment in European Union countries, mainly through the channel of financial payments, either by interest or dividend payments. It is also found that the prejudicial effects of financialisation on investment were more severe in the pre-2007 crisis period. It is concluded that financialisation contributed to a slowdown of real investment by 1 to 8 per cent in the full and pre-crisis period, respectively. During the pre-crisis period, financialisation was the main driver of the slowdown of investment in the European Union.     

Trade Liberalization in the Presence of Foreign Direct Investment and Tax Credits: Estimates for Costa Rica

The paper uses a calibrated general-equilibrium model to quantify the welfare impact of trade liberalization—and compute the optimal tariff structure—for Costa Rica when trade-policy-induced foreign direct investment and international capital taxation with credits are present. It shows that complete trade liberalization reduces Costa Rica's welfare, as it leads to an outflow of capital and loss of tax revenue which more than offset the efficiency gains from an enhanced resource allocation. The optimal tariff structure for the Costa Rican economy turns out to be a mixture of relatively small import tariffs and subsidies.     

EXIT,VOICE, AND PORTFOLIO CHOICE: AGENCY AND PUBLIC OWNERSHIP*

This paper asks what constrains the relative efficiency of a maximally decentralized form of public ownership of capital. It locates the answer in the nondecentralizability of common ownership. Relative inefficiency in the allocation of investment funds is predicted because the ability to arrange a private portfolio gives rise to incentives to investigate investment alternatives and to monitor the disbursers of investment funds, and these incentives cannot be replicated in a system in which (political) voice is the sole mechanism for instilling financial and managerial accountability. Implications for the design of public ownership systems are discussed.     

科技金融政策促进科技企业发展的资源配置效率研究——来自北京市的实证调查

以北京市科技企业为调查对象，对科技金融政策促进企业发展的资源配置效率进行问卷调查分析，结果发现：各分项政策效率由高到低排序依次为财政补贴、金融监管、服务平台、税收优惠、科技保险、风险投资、科技担保、科技信贷政策；政策资源配置在不同产权类型、注册资本、行业类型、员工规模、资质类型、成立年限和年营业收入之间的均衡程度不同；政策激励偏重于创业明朗期和成熟期实力雄厚的企业、区级高技术企业以及国家战略扶持或市场需求较强行业，对创业危险期和成长转型期企业、市级高技术企业、风险较高行业激励性较弱。因此，建议政策优化时处理好以下关系：助强与扶弱、需求与供给、优先与平衡、创业与后劲、管制与放开、独立与协同。     

The new IMF approach to capital account management and its blind spots: lessons from Brazil and South Korea

As emerging economies experience a boom in capital inflows, governments are increasingly concerned about their downsides. Even the IMF (International Monetary Fund), long a stalwart proponent of financial liberalization, has engaged in a new debate on capital flow management. Drawing lessons from empirical case studies on Brazil and South Korea, this paper finds that the new IMF framework remains insufficient in two main aspects. First, by defining ‘capital flow management measures’ (CFMs) as a temporary instrument embedded in an overall strategy of financial opening, the organization insists on the general advantages of financial liberalization, which poses serious limits to emerging economies’ policy space. Second, the Fund keeps on stressing a separation of prudential financial regulation, which should be permanent, and temporary CFMs. Yet, the case studies presented here show that, especially for emerging markets with rather open and sophisticated domestic financial markets, both types of measures are interdependent and overlapping. Additionally, we demonstrate the relevance of a third type of regulation, lying on foreign exchange (FX) derivatives instruments, which may also be required to effectively manage foreign investors’ portfolio reallocations and their impact.     

Financialization and Portuguese real investment: A supportive or disruptive relationship?

The article makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between financialization and real investment by Portuguese nonfinancial corporations from 1979 to 2013. In theory, while financialization leads to a rise in financial investments by nonfinancial corporations and thus deviates funds from real investment, it also intensifies the pressure for financial payments and therefore restricts the funds available for real investment. We estimate an aggregate investment function including control variables (profitability, debt, cost of capital and output growth) and two measures of financialization (financial receipts and financial payments). The study concludes that there is a long-term investment equation, and finds evidence that the process of financialization has hampered real investment largely as a result of financial payments. The article also finds that profitability and debt are both detrimental to real investment.     

投资基金、资本市场及其因果分析

本文从宏观和市场发展层面上,利用格兰杰因果分析和有向非循环图（DAG）技术,对我国2002-2010年的证券投资基金与股票、M2、债券和居民存款之间的因果关系进行了分析。研究结果表明,我国金融市场仍处于分割状态,证券投资基金还没有有效地发挥联系渠道和资产优化配置的功能。证券投资基金存在着导致资本市场风险波动的羊群行为和惯性行为,这是对发展不完善的资本市场所作出的被动性的适应性反应。中国证券投资基金对股票市场具有显著性影响,规范和发展证券投资基金对促进股票市场健康发展具有重要作用。     

ANALYSIS OF THE POSSIBILITIES FOR EXPANSION OF SERVICES IN TANZANIAN SAVINGS AND CREDITS CO‐OPERATIVE SOCIETIES: LEARNING FROM ECONOMIES OF SCALE

Savings and Credit Co‐operative Societies (SACCOS) increasingly recognized as the valuable tool for economic development in low‐income countries. However, recently researchers reported that one of their primary challenges to their expansion is the high level of inefficient. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between growth and efficiency of SACCOS using economies of scale concept. Then we address the role of management of the capital structure and allocation of resources in the expansion of SACCOS. The study used financial statement data from 60 SACCOS in Tanzania for the period of 2004–2011. The findings supports that most of SACCOS are small and cost inefficient because the industry is young, but, the efficiency increases as SACCOS expand. Second the allocation of resources in liquid, financial and non‐financial investment leads to no expansion in SACCOS. Thus, the growth of SACCOS via increasing loan to members, members’ savings, shares, and institutional capital should be encouraged as it increases the efficiency of SACCOS. Also, SACCOS should minimize the allocation of assets in other investments which are different from credit to members.     

“私募股权基金的基金”的差异化发展——基于政府财政资金运用研究

在后金融危机时代,随着政府财政职能的不断完善和创新以及国家财政收入持续增长,科学合理的使用国家和地方财政资金,将对提高财政资金管理水平和使用效率,促进私人资本投资活动、扩大政府资金影响力、减轻政府负担以及转变职能等方面都具有重要意义.成熟的私募股权基金市场,是政府实现其政策的重要工具之一,其中“私募股权基金的基金”(PEFOF)为政府财政投资提供了不错的选择,也是政府设立并按照市场化运作的引导基金.本文将对政府财政投资PEFOF在投资标的差异化、投资额度及使用条件差异化、投资对象与投资策略差异化、投资模式及投资区域差异化等方面进行了分析与研究,提出加快发展我国政府财政资金PEFOF的建议与对策.     

Volatility of capital flows and financial liberalization: Do specific flows respond differently?

This paper examines the volatility of capital flows following the liberalization of financial markets. Utilizing a panel data set of overlapping data, the paper focuses on the response of foreign direct investment, portfolio flows, and other debt flows to financial liberalization. The financial liberalization variable comes from the chronology and index developed by Kaminsky and Schmukler [Kaminsky, G.L. and Schmukler, S.L., 2003, Short-run pain, long-run gain: The effects of financial liberalization, IMF Working Paper WP/03/34.]. Different types of capital flows are found to respond differently to financial liberalization. Surprisingly, portfolio flows appear to show little response to capital liberalization while foreign direct investment flows show significant increases in volatility, particularly for the emerging markets considered.     

资本账户开放与经济增长关系综述

在新古典模型中,开放资本账户有效地推动了资源的国际问分配,使得发展中国家可以获得较低成本的资本流入,从而推动了该国投资的暂时性增加,带动经济增长,最终提高了该国人民的生活水平.经济学家们在这一理论思想的指导下,分别用横断面模型、政策实践观点和企业层面的实践考察了资本账户开放和经济增长之间的关系,其测定理论的研究显示出资本账户开放对资本成本、投资和经济增长有着巨大的影响.     

Financial Development, Foreign Direct Investment, and the Efficiency of Capital Allocation in China

We study the roles of local financial development and foreign direct investment, and more importantly, their interaction with one another, in local capital allocation, based on Chinese industrial and regional data. Our main finding is that, although local financial development and FDI each individually tended to improve the efficiency of local capital allocation during the sample period, they tended to compete and crowd out each other’s effect, so that one impaired the individual function of the other. In particular, there exists a threshold value for local financial development, above which an increase in FDI reduces the efficiency of local capital allocation, rather than improve it. On the other hand, there exists a threshold value for FDI, above which further development in the local financial system lowers the efficiency of local capital allocation, rather than increase it. Our estimations suggest that the levels of FDI and local financial development in some relatively more developed Chinese regions have already surpassed such threshold values. We provide some interpretations of our findings and we discuss potential policy implications.     

Financial crises,debt overhang,and firm growth in transition economies

ABSTRACT

We examine the effects of the global financial crisis of 2008 and the European debt crisis of 2011 on the relationship between capital structure, investments, and performance for Eastern European companies. While the existing literature documents how firms’ investments are sensitive to the availability of internal funds and to debt holdings, we further investigate whether this investment sensitivity also translates in different levels of performance, and document that capital structure indeed has both a direct and an indirect effect, mediated by the capital expenditure channel. We show that firms with higher financial flexibility experience higher investments and returns on capital. Over-levered firms instead suffer from a debt overhang condition, forcing them to curb investments, and consequently experiencing lower performance. Overall, we provide evidence on the importance of capital structure and financial flexibility on investments and performance, showing the real consequences of the debt overhang condition on firm value creation. Firms should therefore aim at maintaining adequate financial flexibility in order to be able to pursue future profitable investment opportunities, and avoid the under-investment problem arising from a debt overhang situation.     

武汉城市圈上市公司资本配置效率研究

武汉城市圈上市公司的发展壮大,一方面取决于资本总量的积累,另一方面取决于资本配置效率的提高。对2005—2009年武汉城市圈上市公司资本配置效率的实证研究表明,固定资产净值（投资额）和利润总额（盈利额）显著正相关,利润的增加会引起投资的增加,而且利润对投资的引致作用成增大趋势,资本配置的效率趋于提高。     

Development of Scale to Measure Objectives-Oriented Investment Behavior

Abstract

While planning for personal finances, researchers recommend investors adapting systematically planned investment behaviors that align investments with their financial objectives; however, they fail to provide a scale for the measurement of such behaviors. Therefore, this study develops a scale, conducts exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, and provides evidence of the reliability of the scale measuring objectives-oriented investment behaviors. Examining a cross-sectional data of 448 investors collected through the new scale, the study finds that a majority of the investors’ do not follow objectives-oriented behavior. The results inform that the selection of investment avenues and allocation of funds were not aligned with investors’ financial objectives.     

产业投资基金真的可以驱动经济结构优化吗——产业基金对经济增长与产业升级驱动程度的PVAR模型分析

在中国经济转型过程中,众多地方政府选择产业投资基金作为优化经济结构的助推工具,但实践中各地方产业基金的投资效果与期望目标存在较大差异,因此需要对产业基金的经济优化效应进行检验。运用诺依曼定理分析产业基金与经济结构优化的互动机制并提出研究假设,采用面板向量自回归模型将经济结构优化表示为经济增长与产业升级,并与产业投资基金进行实证检验。结果表明,产业基金并不是经济结构优化的驱动因素,而只是其结果。一方面,产业基金并不会直接驱动经济增长与产业结构升级,而是通过增加金融投资总量间接作用于经济结构优化;另一方面,产业升级与经济增长会显著吸引产业投资基金。鉴于大量设立产业投资基金对于优化经济结构效果不显著,因而应当重点促进多元金融产业发展、提高企业融资能力、发展多种形式的金融工具。