微观生产函数与总量生产函数的矛盾——技术再转换

根据“替代原理”和利润最大化的假定,新古典学派得出命题:利润率与人均资本量之间存在着反向单调关系。该命题在单一产品或同比例要素模型中无疑是正确的,然而一进入异质品模型就会面临“技术再转换”的悖论。一个重要的原因在于异质品模型中,在统一利润率的假设下,收入分配会影响相对价格,从而技术不能按人均资本量排序。“技术再转换”的悖论使新古典的总量生产函数受到质疑。     

市价调整与美国次贷危机:一个理论述评

针对美国次贷危机及其引发的金融危机,美国和欧洲金融界某些银行家们将矛头指向公允价值会计准则,把危机的原因归咎于按市价调整(mark-to-market)会计计量方法,引起世界各国对公允价值会计评价的轩然大波。相对于历史成本计量而言,按市价调整的会计计量是计量衍生产品等金融工具最具透明性的方法,按市价调整的会计处理和披露为投资者提供了当前市场情况和远期分析等信息,其本身并不会带来任何损失。     

THE DISTRIBUTIONAL CONSEQUENCES OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND TAXATION IN THE U.S., 1989 AND 2000

We assess the effects of government expenditures and taxation on household economic well-being in the United States in 1989 and 2000. Net government expenditure is estimated as the difference between government expenditures incurred on behalf of the household sector—transfers and public consumption—and the taxes paid by that sector. We incorporate the estimates of net government expenditures into a wealth-adjusted measure of income. We find that overall inequality in our income measure is considerably reduced by net government expenditures. Results from decomposition analysis show that the inequality-reducing effect of net government expenditures owed more to expenditures than to taxes.     

ESTIMATES OF THE AGGREGATE QUARTERLY CAPITAL STOCK FOR THE POST-WAR U.S. ECONOMY

We construct quarterly aggregate gross and net capital stock series for the post-war U.S. economy using annual capital stock, capital depreciation, and capital discard figures along with quarterly investment series. We construct nominal and real measures of all three categories in the aggregate capital stock: consumer durable goods, producer durable goods, and business structures. In constructing the nominal series we take into account the changes in capital goods' prices. The series are constructed using four different methods. Using time- and frequency-domain techniques, we compare the constructed series and characterize their short-run, business cycle, and long-run cyclical properties. We find that the constructed series exhibit very different cyclical and shock persistence dynamics. Practial implications are discussed.     

TAXES AND GROWTH: TESTING THE NEOCLASSICAL AND ENDOGENOUS GROWTH MODELS

Changes in the tax rate alter real growth permanently in an endogenous growth model, but only temporarily in a neoclassical model, where the only permanent effect is a decrease in the steady-state level of output per capita. Using data from the 1960'1992 period for a panel of 11 Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development economies, this paper's empirical results support the following conclusions. First, consistent with the tax smoothing hypothesis, tax rates have exhibited significant persistent changes while output growth rates have not. Second, a higher tax rate permanently reduces the level of output but has no permanent effects on the output growth rate. These findings are inconsistent with endogenous growth mechanisms and suggest that the relationship between output and the tax rate is best described by the neoclassical growth model. (JEL E62, 041)     

GROWTH IN THE SHADOWS: EFFECT OF THE SHADOW ECONOMY ON U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH OVER MORE THAN A CENTURY

Taking a long‐term look at U.S. economic growth over 1870–2014, this paper focuses on the spillovers from the shadow or the unofficial economy to growth in the official sector. Shadow activities might spur or retard economic growth depending on their interactions with the formal sector and impacts on the provision of public goods. Nesting the analysis in a standard neoclassical growth model, we use a relatively new time series technique to estimate the short‐run dynamics and long‐run relationship between economic growth and its determinants. Results suggest that prior to World War II (WWII) the shadow economy had a negative effect on economic growth; however, post‐WWII the shadow economy was beneficial for growth. The sanding effect of the shadow economy in the earlier period is especially robust to alternate considerations of possible endogeneity and an alternate set of growth determinants. (JEL E26, O43, O51, K42)     

NEW ESTIMATES OF THE U.S. ECONOMY'S POTENTIAL GROWTH RATE

Using an Okun's law framework, the analysis here estimates potential growth for the 1990s as measured by both fixed- and chain-weighted GDP. It then decomposes estimated potential growth rates into labor productivity growth (LPG) and labor input growth (LIG) using a regression analysis to separate secular from cyclical changes. It compares estimates of potential output and trend productivity growth for the 1990s with estimates from earlier periods. Results indicate that eliminating the substitution bias associated with fixed-weight measures of real GDP raises estimated potential GDP growth in the 1980s but lowers it in the 1990s. A slowdown in labor force growth, with little or no change in long-term productivity growth, largely accounts for the implied slowdown in potential growth.     

MODELING AGGREGATE PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH: THE IMPORTANCE OF INTERSECTORAL TRANSFER PRICES AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE

The value-added model underlies current measures of aggregate productivity growth. Unbiased estimates result only if the economy is closed to trade in foreign-produced material inputs and all domestic intersectoral transactions are characterized by marginal cost pricing. Neither condition typically holds.
This paper identifies these biases and proposes a delivery-to-final-demand framework, a modified form of that first introduced by Domar. The rate of aggregate productivity growth is decomposed into terms identifying the contributions of total factor productivity growth within individual sectors, the reallocation of the economy's primary inputs among sectors, and changes in the allocative efficiency of markets for intermediate goods. The adjustments necessary to remove biases from existing value-added estimates are derived.     

INTANGIBLE CAPITAL AND U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH

Published macroeconomic data traditionally exclude most intangible investment from measured GDP. This situation is beginning to change, but our estimates suggest that as much as $800 billion is still excluded from U.S. published data (as of 2003), and that this leads to the exclusion of more than $3 trillion of business intangible capital stock. To assess the importance of this omission, we add intangible capital to the standard sources-of-growth framework used by the BLS, and find that the inclusion of our list of intangible assets makes a significant difference in the observed patterns of U.S. economic growth. The rate of change of output per worker increases more rapidly when intangibles are counted as capital, and capital deepening becomes the unambiguously dominant source of growth in labor productivity. The role of multifactor productivity is correspondingly diminished, and labor's income share is found to have decreased significantly over the last 50 years.     

TROPICS AND INCOME: A LONGITUDINAL STUDY OF THE U.S. STATES

A simple regression of personal income per capita for the U.S. states is estimated from cross-section data for the years 1929, 1950, 1970 and 1990 with each state's distance from the equator as the regressor. While proximity to the equator is noted to have a sizable adverse effect on income, elasticity of personal income per capita with respect to "tropicality" shows a steady and somewhat dramatic decline during this 60-year period. The estimates indicate that the disadvantage of tropicality is not immutable, and need not imply a developmental determinism.     

熊彼特增长理论:一个文献综述

20世纪90年代以来,熊彼特增长理论(Schumpeterian Growth Theory)的兴起极大地丰富和发展了经济增长理论,其不仅为内生的技术进步和经济增长提供了一种新的解释,而且为我们研究其他问题提供了一个更为一般性的分析框架。熊彼特增长理论的核心特征是内生的研发和创新是推动技术进步和经济增长的决定性因素。本文从代表性的熊彼特增长模型、熊彼特增长理论的应用、基于熊彼特增长理论的实证研究、熊彼特增长理论面临的挑战与未来发展等几个方面较为详细地回顾了近二十年来这一领域发展中较为重要的文献。本文旨在通过梳理这一领域文献的发展脉络和内在演化逻辑,为国内学者研究熊彼特增长理论提供一些线索。     

GROWTH,INEQUALITY, AND ECONOMIC FREEDOM: EVIDENCE FROM THE U.S. STATES

This article returns to the discussion of how income inequality affects economic growth. The main argument of the article is that economic freedom is likely to mediate the association between inequality and growth. In a panel of 300 observations from six 5‐year periods across the 50 U.S. states, I employ five different measures of inequality. The results show that across measures, the growth effects of inequality turn more positive with more economic freedom. The moderating effects are mainly driven by measures of public sector consumption. (JEL O11, O38, O43, P48)