农产品定价不宜自由市场化

文章基于不确定性和沉淀成本角度质疑农产品自由市场定价,反对自由放任政策,提出解决农产品定价问题的政策处方,一方面允许农民自己主动采取减少沉淀成本和不确定性措施保证投资成本的回收,另一方面需要政府介入制定合理的价格支持计划(最低农产品价格)重视沉淀成本的补偿。在农业生产经营活动中,由于不确定性和沉淀成本普遍存在,难以满足完全竞争市场条件,农产品自由化不仅不能提高农民收入和福利水平,反而会严重削弱农民投资激励水平,因而完善农产品市场和资产市场,以及加大政府实施免税政策和进行农村水利基础设施建设,这是解决"三农"问题的根本原则。     

民间投资的制度经济学分析

民间投资在我国国民经济中具有重要的作用,因此,民间投资的变化直接影响国民经济的发展.本文从民间投资有沉淀成本角度出发,使用一个动态的投资模型,探计沉淀成本对民间投资的不利影响,为我们制定有关民间投资提供理论依据.同时还提出一些刺激民间投资的制度创新或改策创新基本原则,旨在于尽量降低沉淀成本,促进各种要素充分流动以刺激投资.     

企业研发投资的实物期权与产品定价机制分析

本文从沉淀成本角度出发,通过实物期权方法探讨企业研发投资所面临的障碍及如何刺激企业进行研发投资的基本原则,认为关键在于完善研发投资成本的产品定价机制:一方面,需要大力完善市场价格制度,摆脱确定条件下边际成本定价;另一方面,更需要大力完善非要素市场治理结构,降低沉淀成本及其风险。     

沉淀成本、西部大开发与制度安排

沉淀资本投资的存在，不仅使理性的投资主体考虑投资收益率，而且应该考虑投资成本的回收状况。在西部大开发过程中，由于生产要素具有沉淀成本，必然会影响投资主体的进入，所以，政府的制度安排需要着眼于降低生产要素沉淀投资成本，以促进生产要素充分流动。     

国有企业投资、沉淀成本与证券市场制度变迁

我国正处于新旧体制转轨时期,旧体制下的重工业优先发展战略所造成的大中型国有企业因自身显著的沉淀成本而难以退出市场,这一现实影响了政府决策者对证券市场制度的运行,从而影响了证券市场制度的变迁。本文通过引入沉淀成本概念,分析我国证券市场制度变迁的原因,同时也提出一些改进我国国有企业退出的一些政策建议。     

沉淀成本与转型期证券市场制度变迁的内生性

从国有企业身上的沉淀成本角度分析我国证券市场制度变迁的理性逻辑,恰恰是政府决策者尊重企业过去发生的沉淀成本的结果.由于我国正处于新旧体制转型时期,计划经济体制下的重工业优先发展战略所形成的大中型国有企业,一方面缺乏比较优势和自生能力,产品价值实现受阻;另一方面因国有企业资产专用性,以及企业内部产权结构不合理,生产要素市场缺乏,使国有企业退出市场产生显著的沉淀成本.国有企业显著的沉淀成本这一经济现实影响了政府决策者对证券市场制度供给,从而造成证券市场制度变迁,并提出改进资本市场运行秩序和弱化国有企业退出障碍的政策建议.     

马克思对沉淀成本概念的分析及其意义

虽然马克思没有使用沉淀成本这一概念,但已认识到沉淀成本的本质特征——成本补偿或价值实现问题。因此,从马克思价值实现角度扩展西方学者对沉淀成本概念的理解,不仅突破了西方学者沉淀成本概念仅仅与资产特征和市场交易成本相关的局限性,而且将沉淀成本和生产过程与产品价值实现联系起来,从而纳入社会再生产运动过程中。从马克思价值实现角度出发,再次回到投资生产上来,充分理解影响沉淀成本的诸多因素,为政府制定政策或制度安排提供一种新的分析视角,在于避免出现沉淀成本,形成良好的再生产过程。     

高新技术产业投资、沉淀成本与补偿制度创新

高新技术产业投资对我国国民经济发展具有重要的作用和潜在的扩张力,但由于没有充分利用高新技术产业投资,严重影响国民经济的整体发展.为此,本文从沉淀成本角度出发,使用一个动态的投资模型,探讨高新技术产业投资所面临的障碍以及提供刺激高新技术产业投资的基本原则,在于完善投资成本补偿机制:一方面,需要大力完善市场制度;另一方面,更需要大力完善非市场制度,同时,政府折旧和税收政策等也是不可替代的.     

沉淀成本、通货紧缩与国企战略退出

文章在放松新古典竞争理论假设前提的基础上,结合我国体制转轨的初始条件--产业结构扭曲的特点,通过引入生产要素沉淀成本来分析通货紧缩产生的原因.由于我国大型国有企业自身缺乏比较优势,在竞争中也很容易产生亏损,同时又因国有企业的固定资本投资的沉淀成本显著而无法退出市场,造成过度竞争,进而使价格下降,利润率下降,投资减少,形成我国当前的通货紧缩,因此从沉淀成本角度提出治理有关通货紧缩的政策处方,能有效地实施国有企业的战略退出以及降低沉淀成本数量.     

资本市场开放与企业投资结构偏向——来自"沪深港通"的经验证据

为建设更高水平的开放型经济新体制,近年来我国金融开放的步伐明显加快.那么在当前我国正面临投资结构"脱实向虚"的情况下,金融开放除了具有"增长效应"和"波动效应"之外,对企业的投资行为是否具有"纠偏"作用呢?文章以2010-2019年我国非金融上市公司年度数据为研究样本,利用"沪深港通"交易制度的实施作为资本市场开放的标志事件构造准自然实验,实证检验了资本市场开放对企业投资结构偏向的影响.研究表明:(1)"沪深港通"交易制度的实施有助于引导企业投资结构从偏重金融资产投资转向实体投资,且该效应在高融资约束、高成长性以及制造业企业中更为凸显.(2)在作用渠道上,"沪深港通"交易制度通过融资成本渠道和资产收益率渠道,降低了企业的股权融资成本,缩小了实体投资收益率与金融投资收益率的差距,对企业投资结构"脱实向虚"产生了"纠偏"作用,从而最终促使企业投资结构偏向实体投资.(3)"沪深港通"交易制度也会通过优化投资结构促进企业生产效率和价值的提升.文章为揭示我国持续扩大资本市场开放进程以引导经济"脱虚入实"进而实现高质量发展的内在机理提供了经验证据.     

SUNK COSTS OF CAPITAL AND THE FORM OF ENTERPRISE: INVESTOR‐OWNED FIRMS AND WORKER‐OWNED FIRMS*

ABSTRACT ** : This paper examines implications of sunk costs of capital for efficient forms of enterprise. It is assumed that firm owners and outside traders are asymmetrically informed of venture risks, and that there are sunk costs associated with investment in physical and human capital. We then make an efficiency comparison between investor‐owned and worker‐owned firms. We find that the firm is efficient when it is owned by the input supplier (the investor or worker) who incurs large sunk costs. This is because such an input supplier can credibly signal to the other input supplier that he in fact has a safe project. An empirical study based on the Japanese manufacturing industry seems to support the theoretical result.     

反倾销申诉和措施中的政治经济因素实证分析

本文运用1985-2000年分国家、分产业、分年度数据和混合Logit方法对反倾销申诉和措施中的政治经济因素进行实证分析。从规模及沉没成本的角度选取产业就业人数占全国总就业人数的比重及固定资产投资额作为政治经济变量,发现政治经济因素在提起反倾销申诉和执行反倾销措施过程中起到了关键作用。规模越大,沉没成本越高的企业越具有能力和动力提出反倾销申诉。同时对政府越具有政治价值的产业,越有可能得到政府的反倾销支持。当考察对华反倾销申诉和措施时,发现政治经济因素表现得更为显著。通过加入宏观经济变量的分析表明,对华反倾销裁定具有较强的随意性。     

Regulating the United States Railroads: The Effects of Sunk Costs and Asymmetric Risk

The Surface Transportation Board (STB) applies the theory of contestable markets to regulate dominant railroad freight movements. The STB bases its determination whether railroad revenues are excessive if they would be more than sufficient to support investment in a hypothetical stand-alone railroad designed to handle the at-issue traffic efficiently. The STB regulatory approach does not take correct account of the importance of sunk costs and irreversible investments in the railroad industry. We estimate how large the mistakes can be by applying a real options approach that takes into account the effect of sunk costs, irreversible investment, and asymmetric returns.     

贸易保护主义的制度经济学分析

随着国际贸易经济的发展,资产在国际间的流动逐渐成为国际贸易中不可忽略的一个重要组成部分,其是否发生沉淀成本有可能对国际商品贸易和投资产生重要影响,不仅会影响国际贸易的总量和产品构成,而且还会影响一国贸易政策的选择。如果一国进行了沉淀成本投资,就会使其在贸易谈判中陷入进退两难困境,失去了讨价还价的力量,并影响其在贸易利益上的分配格局。因而为了摆脱这种被要挟和被控制的风险,政府实行一定的保护主义政策是十分必要的。     

Exports,investment and policy uncertainty

Building on a literature that underscores the value of delaying investment in the face of uncertainty, we study how policy uncertainty in 18 large economies affects exports to these economies. We decompose aggregate bilateral trade flows from 1995 to 2013 into intensive and extensive margin components and employ a gravity specification to assess the impact of policy uncertainty on each margin separately. Consistent with theory, increases in policy uncertainty decrease both trade values and the extensive margin but, if anything, increase the intensive margin. In further tests, we use various proxies for sunk export costs and demonstrate that the effects of policy uncertainty are more pronounced where sunk costs are higher.     

沉淀成本与政府管制政策

新古典一般均衡理论的假设前提是完全的产品和要素市场,这是一个没有沉淀成本的经济模型。一旦我们放松新古典经济学资源流动性的假设前提,引入沉淀成本概念,就会发现,沉淀成本不仅导致要素市场失灵,造成进入壁垒,而且还为政府管制奠定了理论指导。为了提高市场绩效,政府管制必须将沉淀成本管制（进入壁垒）、产权管制（外部性）和信息不完全管制（交易成本）有机结合起来。     

Keiretsu and Relationship‐Specific Investment: A Barrier To Trade?

This article develops a model of informal procurement within Japanese keiretsu so as to consider effects on intermediate-good imports, such as auto parts. Parts-suppliers make relationship-specific investments that benefit the automaker and prices are determined by bargaining after investment has been sunk. Although this investment raises efficiency, it limits the range of imports to less important parts, such as tailpipes, and it is possible that no parts are imported, despite lower foreign costs. Lack of information concerning investment rents combined with counterintuitive responses of imports to changes in output and costs could create unwarranted perceptions of a trade barrier.     

Throwing good money after bad?: Nuclear power plant investment decisions and the relevance of sunk costs

Experimental psychologists and decision theorists suggest that managers are overly reluctant to terminate economically unviable projects and that they fail to ignore sunk costs. This study serves two purposes. First, it shows that the framework of prospect theory allows us to reconcile the sunk cost effect with some older, well-established ideas in investment decision-making. Secondly, the study investigates the external validity of the sunk cost research in the context of the U.S. nuclear power program. The empirical analysis is based on share price movements in reaction to, among other events, all plant completions and cancellations (over $50 million) prior to March 1984. The results are mixed. However, prudency reviews ordered by Public Service Commissions around the nation point to evidence consistent with the sunk cost fallacy.     

Sunk Costs,Firm Heterogeneity,Export Market Entry and Exit: Evidence from India

This paper analyses the role of sunk costs and firm heterogeneity in firm decision to enter and exit export markets. Employing rich firm-level data on Indian manufacturing firms, the study points out that sunk costs in terms of previous export experience significantly explain entry and exit decisions of firms in the export market. The first set of analysis involves estimation of dynamic discrete choice model using random effects probit correcting for initial conditions problem. We find evidence that previous export experience (sunk costs) matters for export decision. However, importance of sunk costs is found to depreciate rapidly. Further, analysis across sub-sample of firms accounting for firm heterogeneity factors like size and product level information supports the hypothesis of sunk costs. Second set of analysis involving firm survival in export markets using discrete-time hazard models shows evidence of negative duration dependence. We observe that those firms which continue to export for few years are less likely to exit from export markets.

     

信誉的价值:基于淘宝数据对我国电子市场的特色解释

为了解释信誉在我国特色电子市场中的价值,本文基于2008年3月下旬淘宝网上三个电子产品的相关数据,分析卖方的长短期肯定信用度和否定信用度、运费、剩余时间、消费者保障服务及价格等对其销售价格、售出概率、售出数量及售出价格的影响。实证分析发现:信誉度对卖方销售及售出行为存在一定的显著影响;价格对销售等行为没有显著相关作用,而只有价格升水对售出概率存在调节作用;剩余时间会正向影响卖方的销售价格,运费却只对卖方售出概率存在负向影响,而消费者保障尚不能显著影响卖方的销售及售出行为。