Lifestyles,inequalities and the process of social change in France

The author analyses social change in French society, underlining both the continuity and the changes inherent in current trends, and tracing the possible outcome of some of the socio-cultural characteristics of the country, particularly with regard to lifestyle. The argument is based on the concept of “progress through conflict”, and after examining the way this model functions, the author shows how present trends could either produce a society of increased well-being or, because they conceal inequalities, could produce a “society in disarray”, in search of a new social design.     

社交媒体上“用嘴投票”对管理层自愿性业绩预告的影响

本文研究了投资者 “股吧”讨论这种“用嘴投票”机制能否发挥治理作用进而促进管理层进行自愿性业绩预告。用上市公司股吧中的发帖量、阅读量和评论量来衡量投资者“用嘴投票”的参与程度,研究发现投资者“用嘴投票”参与度越高,管理层进行盈余预测自愿性披露的概率越大,且更愿意及时披露业绩下滑等坏消息。进一步研究发现,投资者“用嘴投票”是通过对股价产生影响、引发监管层关注和招致媒体报道这三个渠道对管理层产生预警进而发挥治理作用。且这一治理机制在管理层受到互联网信息影响可能性越大、公司中小股东户数越多以及论坛的讨论内容越负面时更为显著。     

Social indicators and technology assessment

The relationship between what is known as “social indicators” and what is called “technology assessment” is one between two “social technologies”. Both are at a relatively early stage of development and both carry the burdens associated with great expectations and enthusiastic missionaries.     

The economics of decline: A neglected scenario

The author identifies a shortcoming common to the recent forecasts of the UK economy and to the earlier “limits to growth” literature which criticised economic growth as the mainstay of policy. In fact, there is no “law” of economic growth, no inherent momentum carrying the economy progressively upwards; indeed development may become undevelopment, and the post-industrial society may come to resemble pre-industrial society. The author briefly describes the symptoms and causes of degenerative economic decline and gives examples of countries where the process is underway. Thus a new forecasting is required in the UK: one that will include the analysis of decline as well as of growth.     

社交媒体上“用嘴投票”对管理层自愿性业绩预告的影响

本文研究了投资者 “股吧”讨论这种“用嘴投票”机制能否发挥治理作用进而促进管理层进行自愿性业绩预告。用上市公司股吧中的发帖量、阅读量和评论量来衡量投资者“用嘴投票”的参与程度,研究发现投资者“用嘴投票”参与度越高,管理层进行盈余预测自愿性披露的概率越大,且更愿意及时披露业绩下滑等坏消息。进一步研究发现,投资者“用嘴投票”是通过对股价产生影响、引发监管层关注和招致媒体报道这三个渠道对管理层产生预警进而发挥治理作用。且这一治理机制在管理层受到互联网信息影响可能性越大、公司中小股东户数越多以及论坛的讨论内容越负面时更为显著。     

Re‐imagining Infrastructure*

A senior executive of Booz Allen Hamilton and co‐author of a business bestseller called Megacommunities argues that the United States is locked into an obsolete pattern of dealing with infrastructure investment, even as the country's population growth and technology have raced ahead. Three of America's basic “lifeline” infrastructures—energy, transportation, and water—are nearing the end of their useful operating lives and in desperate need of modernization. U.S. capital spending on infrastructure has been inadequate, amounting to less than 2% of GDP, as compared to 9% in China and 5% in India. But if infrastructure renewal will be costly, money is not the biggest obstacle. History shows that modernizing existing infrastructures tends to be even more challenging than creating new ones because of the drag caused by legacy hardware and the associated human “software.” And so the real problems are conceptual, institutional, and political—problems whose solutions demand transformational vision and leadership that will encourage collaborative participation by both the public and private sectors. What is lacking, then, is an oversight and coordination mechanism that restores government's traditional integrating role without creating either new monopolies or a larger, more centralized government. To that end the author issues four imperatives: First is the need to rethink the form and function of our old infrastructures. Second is the need for design principles that make future infrastructures robust and adaptable as technology advances, funding changes, and the needs of our citizens evolve. Third is the need for leadership that succeeds by convening, integrating, and aligning the interests and actions of all important stakeholders. Fourth and last is the need for a national vision for America's infra‐structure that defines the function and performance of the entire system over its total lifecycle. A new kind of collaboration by different constituencies, which the author refers to as the creation of “megacommunities,” is held up as a way for stakeholders with conflicting interests to cooperate on compelling issues of national importance with a shared set of practices and protocols.     

GAMBLING, SPECULATION, AND INSURANCE: WHY THEY CONTINUE TO BE CONFUSED AND CONDEMNED

Governments and the media have often attacked financiers for “speculating” in their countries' currencies, thereby forcing them to make drastic and sometimes painful changes in monetary and fiscal policies. This article argues that such accusations have no basis in economic theory, and that “such rhetoric should be seen for what it is: an attempt by politicians and policy-makers to divert attention and blame from their own mismanagement.” More generally, the author argues that the failure of the general public to understand the social benefits of financial activies such as trading in government bonds, commodity futures, and, more recently, financial derivatives has led throughout history to “prejudice, bad laws, and bad regulations.” Much as the charging of interest and certain forms of insurance were proscribed by the medieval Church, agricultural commodity futures were attacked in the 19th century (and in much of the 20th as well) in the U.S. and elsewhere as thinly disguised forms of gambling. Moreover, the same restrictions that were imposed on gambling and futures markets during the 19th and early 20th centuries are now imposed in many Third-World countries. Instead of encouraging the use of forward markets by small producers and traders, and promoting the development of organized commodity markets and banks in local centers, most less-developed countries today support national and international “stabilization” measures such as buffer stocks and regulations like price floors, price ceilings, and crop quotas. Meanwhile, in Western nations, governments continue to accuse financial markets of “destabilizing speculation” and of a myopic obsession with short-term profitability—even as the U.S. IPO market continues to assign record values to companies that have yet to show profits. Viewed in this light, the media and regulatory assaults on the junk bond markets in the late 1980s and on derivatives in the early 1990s are only the latest in a long line of misguided attacks on financial innovation.     

The New Narrative: Applying narratology to the shaping of futures outputs

Both scenario development and design practices incorporate elements of storytelling, but this use remains undertheorised. This paper will draw upon literary theory, film theory and science fiction criticism to develop an analytical model of narrative structure and rhetorics which speaks to the concerns of scenario developers and designers when engaged in shaping the final outputs or deliverables of a futures project.After highlighting the differing role of telos in art and futures and defining the metacategory of “narratives of futurity”, this paper then defines the terms “story”, “narrative”, “narrator” and “world” in the literary context. It then shows how those concepts map onto futures practice, before going into detail regarding the variety of narrative strategies available across a range of different forms and media, and the qualitative effects that they can reproduce in audiences. There follows the construction of a 2 × 2 matrix based on the critical concepts of narrative mode and narrative logic, within which narratives of futurity might be usefully catalogued and compared, and from which certain broad conclusions may be reached as regards the relation between choice of medium and rhetorical effect. The implications of this analysis are explored in detail.     

Informational society

The coming technology of automation, communications, and information processing, contributing to a new “social nervous system”, is discussed. The basic assumptions are that in the future, organisations will have no physical location and that man's primary activities will not be traditional work. The article suggests what this would mean for communities, economic organisations, government and the individual, and proposes a utopian institutional structure based on the stated technological assumptions.     

Smart Growth—Creating Real Long-term Value

Most U.S. business leaders appear to believe that all businesses either “grow or die”—and many act as if they believed that all growth is good, and that public companies should grow in a linear, continuous manner as reflected in ever-increasing quarterly earnings. But if these tenets of “the U.S. Growth Model” inform the short-term business view that prevails in many C-suites and boardrooms, there has been surprisingly little analysis of the extent to which the pursuit of continuous growth translates into longer-run success. In this article, the author reports finding no theoretical or empirical support in the fields of economics, finance, strategy, organizational design (or biology) for the idea that continuous growth is either a realistic possibility or a useful corporate objective. In business organizations, the pursuit of continuous growth can drive bad corporate behavior and inhibit real growth and innovation. Based on extensive research, the author suggests a new model of “smart growth”—one in which companies grow successfully by building internal comprehensive systems designed to encourage growth through specific kinds of culture, leadership, and processes. Smart-growth companies use experimental learning processes designed to test growth ideas and build diversified “growth portfolios” while also attempting to limit the risks associated with the pursuit of growth.     

The Role of Finance and Private Investment in Developing Sustainable Cities

Three trends will drive urban investment, development, and entrepreneurship in the next two decades. The first is urbanization; over the next twenty years, the number of people living in cities will double. Second, shared resources like clean water, clean air, energy, and places to put solid waste are already scarce, and urbanization will only exacerbate shortages. Third, almost no local or national government can mobilize both the capital and the political consensus to make investments in the infrastructure that will lead to more effective use of these resources. This article argues that there is a largely unrecognized opportunity for the private sector to engage in selective investments that can help cities limit the effects of these trends. Investors and entrepreneurs can make money in ways that achieve more productive use of these scarce “public goods;” and by so doing, they can make cities more economically competitive as well as more livable. In making his argument, the author provides a tour of three “new” Asian cities, two of which are held up as models for future development.     

The Evolution of Integrating ESG Analysis into Wealth Management Decisions

Retail investors rely heavily on the advice of their financial advisors. But relatively few of those advisors have begun to incorporate investment strategies based on environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors for their client's portfolios. The author attributes this lack of interest to the disappointing returns of the “first generation” of ESG retail investment products, which approached the topic through a “socially responsible investing” (SRI) lens with mandates to exclude companies and industries viewed as having negative impact on society. These early “negative screening” directives had the effect of reducing the size of the manager's investable universe, which effectively ensured that SRI portfolio would underperform the overall market. The author, who is himself a practicing financial advisor, proposes that an innovative evolutionary process is underway in which investment managers are shifting away from a penchant for “negative screening” to a more inclusive approach he refers to as “best‐in‐class ESG Factor Integration.” And he identifies three main catalysts for this evolution: (1) greater disclosure of ESG data by public companies; (2) the growing accuracy and accessibility of ESG research, from commercial as well as academic sources; and (3) the inclusion of ESG factors with the traditional value drivers emphasized by the fundamental and quantitative methods used by portfolio managers. Although such integration is yet in its early stages, the author is optimistic that this growing trend will become an important part of an overall sustainable investing movement. No longer confined to large institutional investors, ESG factor integration is now available through a growing number of products and investment platforms.     

Sustainability at Dow Chemical

Dow Chemical Company, which was founded in 1894, is now the second‐largest chemical company in the world. From the outset, the company has been committed to high‐technology research and commercial innovation in chemistry, advanced materials, and agro‐sciences. But if Dow's long history of innovation is impressive, the greatest change in the past few years has been the company's use of innovation to reinforce its commitment to sustainability. In 1996, the company produced its first set of 10‐year sustainability‐related goals. In an effort to meet such goals, the company invested a total of $1 billion in environmentally beneficial products such as new seeds and traits in Dow's AgroSciences business, solar shingles, and advanced battery technologies. Along with the social benefit of higher crop yields and reduced carbon emissions, the company's return on this investment has been estimated at $5 billion. The company was even more ambitious when setting its next set of 10‐year goals in 2006. In this statement, Dow's leadership aimed to create a culture that saw sustainability as a business opportunity from the perspective of a “triple bottom line”—a performance evaluation scheme focused on “people, planet, and profit” that construes success in terms of social benefits, environmental stewardship, and economic prosperity. Dow is now starting the process of developing its third set of 10‐year goals, with the aim of producing a plan that will ensure the viability of the company 50 years from now. With this end in mind, Dow's leaders understand their obligation to continue investing in the health and well‐being of their employees, their communities, and the environment while still creating value for their shareholders.     

普惠金融与创业:“授人以鱼”还是“授人以渔”？

在“大众创业,万众创新”战略推进的关键时期,本文考察了普惠金融对创业的影响和作用。基于中国家庭金融调查数据的实证研究发现,普惠金融的发展对创业具备显著的增进效应。考虑多种模型设定、不同自变量和因变量度量方式以及内生性问题讨论的稳健性检验均不改变本文的主要结论。在此基础上,本文对普惠金融影响创业的作用机制进行了检验。结果发现,普惠金融并没有通过缓解家庭资金约束来促进创业,普惠金融对创业的增进作用主要来源于对居民金融能力的提升。随后,本文实证检验了金融教育对普惠金融影响创业的调节作用。结果发现,随着金融教育的普及,普惠金融发展对创业的促进作用将加强。区分普惠金融不同维度可以发现,金融教育对普惠金融影响创业的调节作用,是通过提高金融服务使用度对创业的增进效应实现的。本文的研究表明,相较于传统金融发展,实现金融广化更有助于居民创业精神的激发。     

What Determines TSR

Researchers have long wrestled with the question of what determines a company's total shareholder return, or TSR, and their results have been decidedly mixed. Some empirical studies come down in favor of dividends or earnings per share, while others favor return on capital or other profitability measures. In this article, the author takes a “first principles” approach that begins by demonstrating that TSR should be a function of a company's economic profit, or its Economic Value Added (or EVA). He shows that, from a theoretical standpoint, the sum of dividends and share price appreciation—which is the definition of TSR—is ultimately a function of increasing EVA and, along with it, a company's “aggregate NPV.” He further shows that if stock prices are determined by discounting expected cash flows, corporate NPV will equal the discounted value of EVA, and increasing NPV will come down to increasing EVA. In developing his argument, the author demonstrates that TSR is actually a leveraged version of a measure he calls “TIR,” or total investor return, which is the blended return that an investor would earn from owning the entire capital structure of a company, bonds as well as stock. He then presents the findings of regression analysis showing that a company's TIR and TSR are both strongly positively correlated with its EVA performance plus the change in its aggregate NPV (with R²s equal to 1.0 and 0.94, respectively). In a final step, the author shows that the change in EVA provides a better statistical explanation than other financial measures for changes in aggregate NPV and, hence, actual TSR     

Innovation as recovery strategy for SMEs in emerging economies during the COVID-19 pandemic

The quarantine and disruption of non-essential activities as measure to contain the COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected all economies around the World. This has had a deeper impact on small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in emerging economies because they have very limited resources and vulnerable supply chain and business-to-business/business-to-clients relationships. In this context, it is expected that after the pandemic many of these enterprises will disappear as the “new normality” will require changes in business and infrastructure management. To reduce this risk, innovation is identified as a key aspect of business recovery in the ongoing and post-COVID-19 pandemic period. This work presents a multidisciplinary methodological approach to guide these enterprises to innovate their products for new markets and making a better use of their limited available resources. As an example of this approach, the research-supported development of a new product for a family-owned SME was performed in a zone with high COVID-19 risk. The results provide insight regarding innovation as a survival tool for SMEs during and after the COVID-19 contingency, and the use of digital resources is identified as the main facilitator for networking and research-based design of innovative products within the “social distance” context.     

Carbon: The real limit to growth

Under preindustrial conditions the quantities of animal and vegetable life on Earth were fixed by the rate at which animals and microorganisms could restore carbon to vegetation through atmospheric carbon dioxide. The combustion of fossil hydrocarbons has disturbed this balance by bringing “new” organically useable carbon into the ecosystem. The biomass and free carbon dioxide on the Earth has accordingly increased since the industrial revolution and will continue to increase until and beyond the cessation of hydrocarbon-based technology. The author presents arguments in support of this hypothesis and indicates in the Appendix how the carbon cycle and its response to disturbances might be treated mathematically.     

The role of annual reports in gender and class contradictions at general motors: 1917–1976

This paper argues that studies of female exploitation frequently pay too little attention to the broader social context; particularly alienation and crises in the development of late capitalism. This criticism applies with equal force to the domestic labor/housework studies and labor process studies and labor process studies where male domination is often advanced as the primary explanatory variable in accounting for female oppression. Even where labor process researchers have emphasized mediating affects on partiarchial influences (technology and control processes for instance; c.f. Milkman, Politics and Society, pp. 159–203, 1983), we argue that the broader context of alienated capitalist social relations is frequently understated.Female subordination under capitalism is traced to two primary sources in this study: First, that part of the labor process where the existence of female labor facilitates surplus value appropriation by playing the part of an “industrial reserve army” (sometimes “latent”, at other times “floating”). Second, in times of overproduction and underconsumption, capital has invented a consumerist ideology about women to help resolve its crisis of realizing surplus value. Only by seeing these different instances of female oppression as part of a larger, mutually reinforcing configuration of “instances” — emanating from capitalist social relations — are we likely to begin to adequately comprehend the resilience of social ideology concerning women and develop effective political and social counter-strategies.In this research, the above considerations are explored using evidence from a longitudinal study of General Motors where the annual reports are used to monitor the evolution of managerial ideology vis-a-vis women over some sixty years. We see in this study how the manner of women's exploitation changes with changes in the crises facing capitalism.The implications of the study are severalfold: Firwt, we see how a socially “unreflective” view of “management” and “management control systems” may lead to practices that are oppressive and exploitative. Second, we find “the labor process” to be an important but insufficient conceptual terrain for understanding women's oppression; instead we propose that the starting point of any analysis should be capitalist alienation. Third, this work has implications for the various controversies about class essentialism and the primacy of class. (Wright, New Left Review, pp. 11–36, 1983; Giddens, Central Problems in Social Theory: Action, Structure and Contradiction in Social Analysis, 1979; Miliband, New Left Review, pp. 57–68, 1983; Tinker, Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, pp. 1–20, 1984). as well as the relation between male domination and class oppression (Fox-Genovese, New Left Review, pp. 5–29, 1982, Goldelier, New Left Review, pp. 3–17, 1981) in that it examines the interplay between class and other forms of domination. Lastly, we see how annual reports may contribute to a general “world view” that aids social appropriation and domination.     

Agenda chasing and contests among news providers

This article studies competition in contests with a focus on the news industry that is increasingly influenced by social media. The model assumes publishers to pick a single topic from a large pool based on the topics' prior “success” probabilities, thereby “chasing” potentially successful topics. Firms that publish topics that become successful divide a “reward” which can change with the number of competing firms and the number of successful topics. The results show that share structures can be categorized into three types that, in turn, lead to qualitatively different outcomes for the contest.     

Cyberculture, cyborg post-modernism and the sociology of virtual reality technologies : Surfing the soul in the information age

The relation between humans and machines has come to assume a central place within the social sciences, particularly in debates about the role of science and about information technologies. Cyberculture plays a key role in these debates, drawing its inspiration in large part from virtual reality systems. This article examines the affinities between two aspects of cyberculture: cyborg post-modernism, which revolves around the notion that the boundaries between humans and machines are becoming irretrievably blurred, and the cyberpunk movement within youth culture with its futuristic ideas about information and communication machines. While cyberculture may be far ahead of the current state of the technology, it is argued here that its new conception of the relation between politics, technology and art is an important reflection of changes within the cultural industries that surround information and communication technologies within advanced societies.