Der volkwirtschaftliche Wert der Versicherung — eine Input-Output-Analyse der Versicherungswirtschaft

What is the value of insurance to a society and its economy? What are the interdependencies and interrelations between the insurance sector and other sectors of the economy? By applying the tool of input-output-analysis we are able to measure on the one hand the flow of goods and services from other sectors to the insurance sector and on the other hand the flow of insurance to other sectors of the German economy. The results show that the output-multiplier, representing the demand induced by an increased demand for insurance, is surprisingly large. In the course of our study we are further able to give a detailed picture of the input-factors needed to produce insurance and also to quantify how much insurance other sectors of the economy for their intermediate consumption.     

Bank runs, foreign exchange reserves and credibility: When size does not matter

The paper considers the sizes of banking sectors that are vulnerable to runs when the central bank cares about economic stability and currency peg credibility. It is shown that when banks are small, the central bank will recapitalize unhealthy banks because doing so will not compromise its peg. While recapitalizations of large banking sectors will compromise a peg, central banks will also bailout large banking sectors in distress to prevent great economic instability. Given the central bank's expected response, a range of sizes for banking systems, which are vulnerable to runs, is found along with a condition in which size will not matter. That is, if that condition is satisfied, banking sectors of all sizes will be immune to runs. The experiences of Asia and Argentina are discussed to provide anecdotal support for the model.     

Evaluating the sovereign and household credit risk in Singapore: A contingent claims approach

This study evaluates the credit risk of the household and government (sovereign) sectors in Singapore using the contingent claims approach (CCA). The CCA model estimates the default probability of both sectors based on the market value of the assets and liabilities of the sectors. Compared to the traditional credit rating system, this model is able to provide numerical estimates of the exposures and default probabilities. We find that from the year 2000 to 2013, variations in the credit risk measures correspond to the economic growth of Singapore. In addition, we suggest that the main factor affecting the credit risks in the government and household sectors in Singapore is the volatility of the assets held by both sectors, given that the asset-to-distress barrier ratios are relatively stable over the past 14 years for both sectors.     

One human settlement: A transdisciplinary approach to climate change adaptation research

The threat of climate change demands that human settlements adapt to unavoidable impacts. Climate change is a complex problem that requires traditional disciplines to work together to facilitate an integrated and coordinated response to its impacts. Transdisciplinary research approaches have been recognised for being well placed to aid responses to complex problems such as climate change. This paper draws on the experience of the South East Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative (SEQCARI), Australia, to reflect upon the challenges involved in undertaking transdisciplinary research aimed at developing and improving a range of adaptation options for specific sectors as well as across sectors. Challenges and learning's are discussed based on the three phases of transdisciplinary research processes: problem framing and team building, co-creation of solution-oriented transferable knowledge, and (re)integration and application of created knowledge. Four key insights are then discussed to advance transdisciplinary research approaches for climate change adaptation: adoption of a dynamic learning approach such as learning-by-doing/doing-by-learning to provide sufficient flexibility and scope to navigate potential barriers and conflicts; selection of social sciences to drive integration; choice of one sector as a platform for integration; and acknowledgement of existing barriers and limitations associated with the political context in which the research takes place.     

The Challenges for Labour Market Policy during the COVID-19 Pandemic*

The COVID-19 pandemic is having a dramatic economic impact in most countries. In the UK, it has led to sharp falls in labour demand in many sectors of the economy and to initial acute labour shortages in other sectors. Much more than in a typical downturn, the current crisis is not simply a general slowdown in economic activity but also a radical short-term shift in the mix of economic activities – of which an unknown, but possibly significant, amount will be persistent. The initial policy response has focused on cushioning the blow to families’ finances and allowing the majority of workers and firms to resume their original activities once the crisis subsides. These are crucial priorities. But there should also be a focus on reallocating some workers, either temporarily if working in shut-down sectors or permanently by facilitating transitions to sectors and jobs offering better prospects and facing labour shortages. The phasing-out of the furlough subsidies, which is projected to happen in Autumn 2020, brings this into even sharper focus since the alternative for many workers will be unemployment. Active labour market policy will need to be front and centre.     

Testing for Vertical Fiscal Externalities

The purpose of this paper is to design a test of whether the vertical external effects associated with tax base sharing among local and regional governments have become internalized via the intergovernmental transfer system. Such tests are important in the sense that the income tax rates chosen by different levels of government will generally be correlated, even if the resource allocation is optimal from society's point of view. By using panel data for the Swedish local and regional public sectors, the results imply that an increase in the regional income tax rate induces the municipalities in the region to decrease their income tax rates. In addition, we are able to reject the null hypothesis that the vertical external effects have become internalized.     

The Effect of Eliminating Direct Payments to Farmers on Land Values

This study looks at the effects of the complete elimination of direct government payments to farmers on the U.S. economy in general and the effect on land values in particular. The analytical approach used consists of a computable general equilibrium model composed of 14 producing sectors, 14 consuming sectors, six household categories classified by income, and a government. The results suggest that, with a complete elimination of direct government payments to farmers, there will be a reduction in output by all producing sectors of 0.18% or about $14.5 billion, a decline in output in the agricultural sectors of 4.39% or about $12.0 billion, a fall in the consumption of goods and services by about 0.11% or $4.15 billion, a fall in total utility by 0.47% or $22.0 billion, and a net reduction in expenditures for the government of $13.4 billion. Land values will be adversely affected, falling an average of 14%.     

CDO pricing with nested Archimedean copulas

Companies in the same industry sector are usually more correlated than firms in different sectors, as they are similarly affected by macroeconomic effects, political decisions, and consumer trends. Despite the many stock return models taking this fact into account, there are only a few credit default models that take it into consideration. In this paper we present a default model based on nested Archimedean copulas that is able to capture hierarchical dependence structures among the obligors in a credit portfolio. Nested Archimedean copulas have a surprisingly simple and intuitive interpretation. The dependence among all companies in the same sector is described by an inner copula and the sectors are then coupled via an outer copula. Consequently, our model implies a larger default correlation for companies in the same industry sector than for companies in different sectors. A calibration to CDO tranche spreads of the European iTraxx portfolio is performed to demonstrate the fitting capability of the model. This portfolio consists of CDS on 125 companies from six different industry sectors and is therefore an excellent portfolio for a comparison of our generalized model with a traditional copula model of the same family that does not take different sectors into account.     

Cultural resources and public trust shape attitudes toward climate change and preferred futures—A case study among the Norwegian public

Since climate change mitigation likely will affect most sectors of society, adapting to climate change essentially requires the public to envision and adjust to alternative futures. There is a need for more studies on the social basis for climate change asking why people hold the attitudes they do, rather than the dominant tendency to ask how to change attitudes and behavior. Research in different fields show that fundamental life values and worldviews are shaped through life and heavily influenced by early life socialization and culture, which in turn can shape attitudes toward specific phenomena like climate change. We surveyed a representative sample of the Norwegian public and examined how cultural resources and trust in environmental governance institutions are related to attitudes toward climate change. High levels of trust are associated with a tendency to perceive climate change as human caused, and low levels of trust correspond with stronger beliefs that climate change are natural phenomena. High levels of cultural resources are found among climate change deniers as well as believers, indicating that groups with different political, professional and intellectual orientations, as well as life histories, may not trust climate change science. We argue that improved knowledge about the social basis for climate change is an imperative part of futures-oriented expertise.     

贸易开放对金融发展的影响分析

本文通过建立一个金融发展与产业结构密切相关的理论模型,认为当发达国家和发展中国家同时开放贸易时,发达国家的金融依赖型部门增长,并且带来金融体系的完善。相反,发展中国家的金融依赖型部门萎缩,外部融资需求减少,最终导致金融体系的退化。在实证研究中采用了47个样本国家贸易开放和金融发展的数据,结果与理论预测基本一致:贸易开放促进发达国家金融发展水平的同时,对发展中国家的金融发展产生了负面影响。     

The effects of oil price shocks on U.S. stock order flow imbalances and stock returns

This paper investigates for the first time the effects of oil demand shocks and oil supply shocks on stock order flow imbalances leading to changes in stock returns. Through the estimation of a structural VAR model, positive oil demand shocks are able to explain almost 36% of the observed variation in the daily average stock order flow imbalances measured by the buy/sell trades ratio; which consequently lead to a negative rather than positive stock returns reaction. In contrast, oil supply shocks exhibit a negative and marginally significant effect on stock order flow imbalances. Our aggregate analysis suggests that positive shocks on stock order flow imbalances are negatively related to stock returns. These effects are stronger for oil-related sectors when compared with the rest of the equities sectors.     

The patterns of cross-border bank mergers and shareholdings in OECD countries

In recent years there has been a surge in mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in all sectors of economic activity. Cross-border operations have followed this trend, creating global companies operating in all major world markets. In this paper we study the pattern of cross-border M&As in the banking industry relative to the non-financial sector of the economy and investigate which factors make it more likely that a bank will expand its activities abroad. We find that cross-border M&As are rarer in banking than in other sectors, possibly owing to the importance of information asymmetries in banking relationships and to regulatory restrictions. Using data on almost 2500 banks from 29 OECD countries, we also show that the most significant features of banks with foreign equity interests relate to efficiency: banks with cross-border shareholdings are on average larger, more profitable, and based in countries with a more highly developed banking market.     

Scenario-based approach in dealing with climate change impacts in Central Tanzania

Climate variability and change continue to be a threat to Africa’s agro-ecosystems. This is anticipated to have a multitude of immediate and long-term impacts on sub-Saharan Africa’s natural resources of the present study attempts to establish the potential benefit of integrating local stakeholders’ knowledge into climate scenarios. Specifically, the study sought to tap into the expertise and perspectives of locally important stakeholders in the potentially sensitive Wami/Ruvu River catchment of Tanzania. Participatory scenario planning was used to explore sectors sensitive to climate variability and change. This included 84 selected smallholder farmers and their leaders spread across six villages within the catchment. Quantitative household surveys were conducted across 199 households and Supplementary information sourced from regional statistics. The survey indicates that farmers project that land and agricultural productivity and water resources will be affected by climate change. From the participatory approach adopted for the study, thematic scenario categories featuring land and water resource-use and management and farm productivity were developed. The research found scenario analysis as a useful tool in development planning, as it incorporates interacting risks and uncertainties. If adopted by local farmers, leaders, regional institutional frameworks and policy makers, the tool has the potential to improve responsiveness to changes and risks through its collaborative management approach. This study demonstrates the need for sustainable water use and management systems and land use and farming practices that will increase crop productivity and resilience to climate variability and change.     

Australian futures: Freshwater ecosystems and human water usage

Historical legacies of land-use change together with growing demands for water resources from agricultural, industrial and urban sectors have extensively degraded many of the freshwater ecosystems of Australia. Recent and rapid declines in the condition of these ecosystems indicate that current patterns of water consumption are ecologically unsustainable, particularly in agricultural landscapes. We use three scenarios of water resource use and development over the next 50 years to examine the implications of each in terms of their likely impact on freshwater ecosystems. These scenarios encompass agricultural, industrial and urban water use, and propose trends in water use and management rather than a specific set of predictions. We see two of these scenarios, those of business-as-usual and economic growth, as being ecologically unsustainable, leading to significant declines in the biodiversity and functioning of freshwater ecosystems. Only under our ecological-sustainability scenario do we foresee possible large-scale improvements in the condition of Australia's aquatic ecosystems. This scenario will require major shifts in water use patterns and require careful planning and consideration of a range of social and economic issues. In all scenarios large-scale ecosystem drivers, such as climate change and salinity, will become major impediments to improvements in the ecological condition of aquatic ecosystems.     

The hard side of change management

Everyone agrees that managing change is tough, but few can agree on how to do it. Most experts are obsessed with "soft" issues, such as culture and motivation, but, say the authors, focusing on these issues alone won't bring about change. Companies also need to consider the hard factors-like the time it takes to complete a change initiative, the number of people required to execute it, and so forth. When the authors studied change initiatives at 225 companies, they found a consistent correlation between the outcomes of change programs (success versus failure) and four hard factors, which they called DICE: project duration, particularly the time between project reviews; integrity of performance, or the capabilities of project teams; the level of commitment of senior executives and staff; and the additional effort required of employees directly affected by the change. The DICE framework is a simple formula for calculating how well a company is implementing, or will be able to implement, its change initiatives. The framework comprises a set of simple questions that help executives score their projects on each of the four factors; the lower the score, the more likely the project will succeed. Companies can use DICE assessments to force conversations a bout projects, to gauge whether projects are on track or in trouble, and to manage project portfolios. The authors have used these four factors to predict the outcomes and guide the execution of more than 1,000 change management programs worldwide. Not only has the correlation held, but no other factors (or combination of factors) have predicted outcomes as successfully.     

Futurists and their schools: A response to Ziauddin Sardar's ‘the namesake’

A ‘futurist’ is the generic term for someone seriously engaged in the consideration of future conditions. ‘Futures research’ has a systems science orientation with a planning horizon in excess of 10 years. ‘Futures studies’ has a social science connotation and ‘foresight’ is the most popular term within the management science and corporate sectors. Five schools of futures researchers are defined: 1. Environmental and geosciences. 2. Infrastructure systems and engineering technology. 3. Social, political and economic science. 4. Human life, mind and information science. 5. Business and management science. The academic route to a futures qualification is outlined with a list of futures orientated organisations. The inclusion of urbanisation in the next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment, would involve replacing the notion of economic equilibrium by the concept of far-from-equilibrium stability. Finally futures research is described as an evolutionary science, which will possibly become integrated within complexity science by 2050.     

Changing the way we change

More and more companies struggle with growing competition by introducing improvements into every aspect of performance. But the treadmill keeps moving faster, the companies keep working harder, and results improve slowly or not at all. The problem here is not the improvement programs. The problem is that the whole burden of change typically rests on so few people. Companies achieve real agility only when every function and process--when every person--is able and eager to rise to every challenge. This type and degree of fundamental change, commonly called revitalization or transformation, is what many companies seek but rarely achieve because they have never before identified the factors that produce sustained transformational change. The authors identify three interventions that will restore companies to vital agility and then keep them in good health: incorporating employees fully into the principal business challenges facing the company, leading the organization in a different way in order to sharpen and maintain incorporation and constructive stress, and instilling mental disciplines that will make people behave differently and then help them sustain their new behavior. The authors discovered these basic sources of revitalization by tracking the change efforts of Sears, Roebuck & Company, Royal Dutch Shell, and the United States Army. The organizations used these interventions to alter the way their people experienced their own power and identity, as well as the way they dealt with conflict and learning. As at Sears, Shell, and the U.S. Army, any major shift in those four elements will create a landmark shift in any organization's operating state or culture.     

制度和政策不确定性下的创新决策与经济增长过程

构建"2+1"部门内生创新模型,考量政策的连续性和制度的稳定性对经济增长产生影响.结果表明:由于创新活动具有极大的风险性质,初期需要巨大投入,而回报分散在漫长的未来时间,因而未来面临的各种制度和政策变化都会影响到创新成果的现值,从而不利于鼓励研发部门将资源投入创新活动.更重要的是,由于政府部门需要实现多重政策目标,这意味着鼓励创新的目标可能受到牵制,从而增加了创新活动未来收益的不确定性.因此,要促进创新活动,必须为研发部门提供一个可以稳定预期的未来制度与政策环境.     

Global Pricing of Carbon-Transition Risk

The energy transition away from fossil fuels exposes companies to carbon-transition risk. Estimating the market-based premium associated with carbon-transition risk in a cross section of 14,400 firms in 77 countries, we find higher stock returns associated with higher levels and growth rates of carbon emissions in all sectors and most countries. Carbon premia related to emissions growth are greater for firms located in countries with lower economic development, larger energy sectors, and less inclusive political systems. Premia related to emission levels are higher in countries with stricter domestic climate policies. The latter have increased with investor awareness about climate change risk.