Forecasting inflation in the 1980s

Refined forecasting techniques are rendered practically useless in the face of the current instabilities in the international system—and the repercussions these could have on domestic economies. Currently, there is no convincing forecast of the probable medium-term course of stagflation. Nor is there likely to be while the money markets are faced with the problems of recycling OPEC surpluses and funding the debts of less developed countries. This heavily interdependent and fragile system could easily be shaken by unpredicted shocks. Domestic economies will continue, through their links with it, to be subject to the vagaries of a system beyond their control or forecasting abilities.     

Mortality Change and Forecasting

Abstract

Prospects of longer life are viewed as a positive change for individuals and as a substantial social achievement but have led to concern over their implications for public spending on old-age support. This paper makes a critical assessment of knowledge about mortality change. It is oriented toward the problem of forecasting the course of mortality change and the potential of existing work to contribute to the development of useful forecasts in Canada, Mexico, and the U.S.

We first examine broad patterns in the historical decline in death rates in the three countries, the effect of these on trends in life expectancy, and the epidemiological transition. Next we review theories of the age pattern and evolution of mortality, including graduations, evolutionary theory, reliability models, dynamic models, and relational models.

The analysis and forecasting of mortality change have been shaped largely by some key historical lessons, which we summarize next. We emphasize issues that have been or are likely to be significant in mortality analysis, especially the questions of the age pattern and time trend in mortality at old ages; we distinguish patterns and facts that are established from those that remain uncertain. Next, we consider mortality differentials in characteristics such as sex, marital status, education, and socioeconomic variables; we summarize their key features and also point to the substantial gaps in our understanding of their determinants.

Finally, we review methods of forecasting, including the scenario method used by the U.S. Social Security Administration and the time series method of Lee and Carter. We set out some important recommendations for forecasters: forecasting assumptions should be made more formal and explicit; there should be retrospective evaluations of forecast performance; and greater attention should be paid to the assessment and consequences of forecast uncertainty.     

Forecasting Mortality Change

Abstract

This paper enumerates questions about the assumptions, methods, and interpretation of mortality projections that are made for policy applications. These questions are of practical concern to people who make and use projections, and cover a much narrower scope than the review by Tuljapurkar and Boe (pp. 13–47). The objective in circulating this paper was to provide an initial focus for participants at the SOA meeting.     

Income Inequality and Living Standards: Changes in the 1970s and 1980s

‘This country has the highest standard of living that it has ever known … Real incomes have increased throughout all income groups.’ Margaret Thatcher (Weekly Hansard, 27 April 1989, cols 1087–8) ‘While the very rich have lost some of their riches to the less rich, over time, the poor have hardly profited proportionately.’ Neil Kinnock (The Future of Socialism, Fabian Tract no. 506, January 1986)     

Human resources in the 1980s

As the decade of the 1970s closes, new trends in human resources will test the ingenuity of corporate planners to produce policies for the 1980s that will match changing corporate demands with changing employee expectations. The 1970s have produced much-publicized problems--for example, the introduction to the work force of larger numbers of minorities and women--that are not yet fully resolved and that can be expected to continue. But the 1980s will bring their own special challenges. Shifting populations (such as legal and illegal immigrants), the women's movement's demand for equal pay for work of comparable worth, and the push for civil liberties at the workplace are all factors that will dramatically change the business climate. With these factors in mind, the author examines the 1980s' business environment, takes a backward look at planning policies in the 1970s, and shows how the priorities of those policies will have to be reevaluated to meet the challenges of the future.     

Going public in the 1980s: Evidence from Sweden

The paper explores the going public decision in a sample of family-owned corporations in Sweden, 1970–1991. the issuers' motivations for going public are documented and contrasted with economic theory. We find that the average firm is old, that a significant portion of the shares are sold by existing shareholders, that most going public activity took place after an exceptionally sharp stock price increase, and that going public activity is not related to the business cycle. the findings suggest that firms were taken public by their owners who wanted to liquidate their investment to finance consumption or portfolio diversification. the findings strike the common view that firms go public to finance growth. Data from other European countries exhibit similar patterns and suggest that our findings for Sweden may extend to other markets as well.     

Bondholder Wealth Effects in Mergers and Acquisitions: New Evidence from the 1980s and 1990s

We examine the wealth effects of mergers and acquisitions on target and acquiring firm bondholders in the 1980s and 1990s. Consistent with a coinsurance effect, below investment grade target bonds earn significantly positive announcement period returns. By contrast, acquiring firm bonds earn negative announcement period returns. Additionally, target bonds have significantly larger returns when the target's rating is below the acquirer's, when the combination is anticipated to decrease target risk or leverage, and when the target's maturity is shorter than the acquirer's. Finally, we find that target and acquirer announcement period bond returns are significantly larger in the 1990s.     

Intra-mediterranean trade relations in the 1980s

This paper deals with an important problem of trade policy confronted by the countries of the Mediterranean Basin: what should be their goals and strategy in the 80s for trading links with other neighbouring countries, regions or trading superpowers?     

Efficiency and Demutualization: Evidence From the U.S. Life Insurance Industry in the 1980s and 1990s

This article examines the efficiency changes of U.S. life insurers before and after demutualization in the 1980s and 1990s. We use two frontier approaches (the value‐added approach and the financial intermediary approach) to measure the efficiency changes. In addition, we use Malmquist indices to investigate the efficiency and productivity change of converted life insurers over time. The results using the value‐added approach indicate that demutualized life insurers improve their efficiency before demutualization. On the other hand, the evidence using the financial intermediary approach shows the efficiency of the demutualized life insurers relative to mutual control insurers deteriorates before demutualization and improves after conversion. The difference in the results between the two approaches is due to the fact that the financial intermediary approach considers financial conditions. The results of both approaches suggest that there is no efficiency improvement after demutualization relative to stock control insurers. There is, however, efficiency improvement relative to mutual control insurers when the financial intermediary approach is used.     

企业制度变迁与中国企业发展目标模式

社会主义市场经济体制的建立和完善,要求现代企业制度作为微观基础。以企业所有制与产权制度、企业组织制度和企业管理制度为主要组成部分的企业制度的变迁,反映了市场经济的客观要求。现代企业制度是企业制度历经数百年自发演变的结晶。在经济体制转轨条件下,市场主体必须通过自觉行动进行培育。而培育市场主体的中心环节,是如何使企业、尤其是国有企业,成为社会主义市场经济的市场主体,按照现代企业制度的要求和中国的国情进     

Accounting education: Turning wrongs into rights in the 1980's

This article speculates upon the evolution of accounting education in the 1980's. Ideas are presented which impact upon many facets of higher education including undergraduate, graduate, and continuing education programs, as well as research and service. Further, institutional issues concerning the role of academics are addressed.The paper begins with “wrongs” of accounting research, education, libraries, and continuing education. Particular stress is placed upon weaknesses in educating and motivating accounting faculty to teach and have primary concern for students. Promotion, tenure, expense support, and reward structures are biased toward research and publication rather than teaching. Funding and faculty attention are not directed toward innovation in accounting education and development of university libraries as learning centers. In short, accounting educators continue to “educate for absolescence.”The paper ends with some suggestions of how to turn “wrongs” into “rights.” More than increased funding is needed. Of primary importance is a shift in attitudes and reward structures.     

Bankruptcy classification errors in the 1980s: An empirical analysis of Altman's and Ohlson's models

Empirical accounting researchers often use Altman's (1968) and Ohlson's (1980) bankruptcy prediction models as indicators of financial distress. While these models performed relatively well when they were estimated, we show that they do not perform as well in more recent periods (in particular, the 1980s), even when the coefficients are re-estimated. When we compare the performance of Ohlson's original model to our re-estimated version of his model and to that of Altman's original and re-estimated models, we find that Ohlson's original model displays the strongest overall performance. Given that Ohlson's original model is frequently used in academic research as an indicator of financial distress, its strong performance in this study supports its use as a preferred model.     

八十年代美国税制改革的回顾与思考

20世纪80年代,里根当政时期的美国曾经进行了一场美国历史上规模最大、波及世界上许多国家的税制改革.当时,许多美国人对这项改革持有异议,对里根卸任时留下的财政赤字提出严厉指责.二十年以后的今天,美国的经济学家大都认同里根的税制改革和他当时实行的各项财政经济政策.有的经济学家和历史学家更明确提出"现在是确定里根在美国经济发展中的地位的时候了"、美国"今天的和平与繁荣时代的建筑师是罗纳德里根"、"克林顿总统并不是目前繁荣的创造者".     

How Have the World's Poorest Fared since the Early 1980s?

A new assessment is made of the developing world's progressagainst poverty. By the frugal $1 a day standard there were1.1 billion poor people in 2001—almost 400 million fewerthan 20 years earlier. During that period the number of poorpeople declined by more than 400 million in China, though halfthe decline was in the early 1980s and the number outside Chinarose slightly. At the same time the number of people in theworld living on less than $2 a day rose, so that there has beena marked bunching up of people living between $1 and $2 a day.Sub-Saharan Africa has become the region with the highest incidenceof extreme poverty and the greatest depth of poverty. If thesetrends continue, the 1990 aggregate $1 a day poverty rate willbe halved by 2015, meeting the Millennium Development Goal,though only East and South Asia will reach this goal.      

论80年代以来的美国对华直接投资(上)

<正> 美国是当今发达资本主义国家中经济和技术实力最强大的国家,也是迄今为止全球对外直接投资最多的国家。中国实行对外开放政策以来,美国率发达国家之先,1980年便开始对我国进行直接投资。经过近20年的发展,美国不仅成为发达国家中对华直接投资的主要来源地,而且也成为我国利用跨国公司直接投资,获取先进技术和管理经验的重要途径。美国对华直接投资对中美两国的经济合作     

The Asset Price Theory of Shareholder Revaluations: Tests with the Tax Reforms of the 1980s

A tax reform providing incentives for fixed investment may increase shareholder wealth because after-tax cash flows on planned investment increase. Alternatively, shareholder wealth may decline because existing assets receive disadvantageous tax treatment relative to new ones and equities are largely claims on existing assets. This study tests the alternative hypothesis by predicting in a simulation model the revaluation of existing assets resulting from the 1981 and 1986 tax acts and then by comparing the predictions to stock returns data. The results reject the hypothesis that cumulative excess returns accruing because of tax reform equal the revaluation on existing assets.