Racial differences in investor decision making

Racial differences in investment behavior are investigated using data from the 1995 Survey of Consumer Finances. Socioeconomic, financial, and attitudinal variables are incorporated in a life-cycle savings model. The impact of all variables is allowed to differ between Black households and White households to understand racial differences in risky asset ownership. We determine that observed racial differences in risky asset ownership are explained by racial differences in the individual determinants of risky asset ownership, not by race in and of itself. Specifically, these differences seem to center on the impact of children and household size.JEL classification: D12; D91; G11; J70     

The hidden traps in decision making

Bad decisions can often be traced back to the way the decisions were made--the alternatives were not clearly defined, the right information was not collected, the costs and benefits were not accurately weighted. But sometimes the fault lies not in the decision-making process but rather in the mind of the decision maker. The way the human brain works can sabotage the choices we make. John Hammond, Ralph Keeney, and Howard Raiffa examine eight psychological traps that are particularly likely to affect the way we make business decisions: The anchoring trap leads us to give disproportionate weight to the first information we receive. The statusquo trap biases us toward maintaining the current situation--even when better alternatives exist. The sunk-cost trap inclines us to perpetuate the mistakes of the past. The confirming-evidence trap leads us to seek out information supporting an existing predilection and to discount opposing information. The framing trap occurs when we misstate a problem, undermining the entire decision-making process. The overconfidence trap makes us overestimate the accuracy of our forecasts. The prudence trap leads us to be overcautious when we make estimates about uncertain events. And the recallability trap leads us to give undue weight to recent, dramatic events. The best way to avoid all the traps is awareness--forewarned is forearmed. But executives can also take other simple steps to protect themselves and their organizations from the various kinds of mental lapses. The authors show how to take action to ensure that important business decisions are sound and reliable.     

Genetic testing: affected parties and decision making

The network of issues around information obtained from genetic testing is wide and complex. While risk assessment, awareness and discussion are often public driven, and in many instances, including that of nuclear power, are allied with democratic principles, the case of gene technology and genetic testing appears to be different. The opportunity for risk assessment by gene testing is rejected by many, and this rejection is supported by the claim of the right not to know. This article discusses the background to this development, and argues that decisions that consider issues related to genetic testing should be taken with the participation of affected parties.     

Accounting aggregation: User preferences and decision making

This experiment tests the effects of alternative aggregations of accounting data in a simulated portfolio task. Certain entropy-based aggregation criteria were used to prepare differentially aggregated financial statements for use in the task. Subjects made allocations of initial edowments between hypothetical firms, disclosed confidence in their allocation decisions and reported on specific characteristics of the financial statements. Differences in reported usefulness of statement sets furnished were found to be associated strongly with measured information content. The results also provide limited evidence that decisions and judgments of subjects were affected by the information content of the accounting aggregations provided.     

Strategic investment decision making practices: A contextual approach

This paper proposes a contextual approach to explaining differences in strategic investment decision (SID) making practices. First, a systematic contextual framework is developed from the existing research literature. Then this framework's potential for explaining differences in SID making practices is explored through 14 case studies of U.K., U.S. and Japanese companies from both stable and dynamic business sectors. Our findings suggest substantial SID differences across our four contextual categories of market creators, value creators, refocusers and restructurers. The differences relate to the emphasis on strategic versus financial considerations, the thoroughness and rigidity of financial analysis, the attitudes towards incorporating less easily quantifiable factors and the level of hurdle rates.     

Importance of skewness in decision making: Evidence from the Indian stock exchange

In this paper our goal is to examine the importance of skewness in decision making, in particular on investor utility. We use time-series daily data on sectoral stock returns on the Indian stock exchange. We test for sectoral stock return predictability using commonly used financial ratios, namely, the price-to-book, dividend yield and price-earnings. We find strong evidence of predictability. Using this evidence of predictability, we forecast sectoral stock returns for each of the sectors in our sample, allowing us to devise trading strategies that account for skewness of returns. We discover evidence that accounting for skewness leads not only to higher utility compared to a model that ignores skewness, but utility is sector-dependent.     

Risk informed decision making in land use planning

The objective of the paper is to present a multicriteria decision methodology for supporting decisions about patterns of land development in the vicinity of major hazard installations. The proposed methodology is based on the paradigm of Multicriteria Decision Analysis and aims at integrating the results of risk analysis of major hazard installations with models for land use planning. The methodology possesses two main features: it is interactive and it does not require assessment of value tradeoffs prior to assessing the most preferred land use pattern. The latter is achieved by determining the efficient set of land use patterns by means of a dynamic programming-based algorithm. The proposed methodology and the use of the efficient set of solutions in supporting land use planning decisions are demonstrated through an application. Four criteria are used in the application, three referring to risk and one to the benefits of alternative land use patterns, although the methodology can accept any number of decision criteria as well as various types of land development. A computerized decision support system has been developed to implement the proposed methodology.     

Cognitive science and decision making research in accounting

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the relevance of cognitive science to decision-making research in accounting. First, the context into which it interfaces the field of accounting is reviewed. Next, the cognitive science applications to accounting are presented and evaluated as they relate to four levels of investigation. The paper concludes with implications for future research as well as a discussion of methodological issues which must be addressed.     

Euro area banking and monetary policy shocks in the QE era

This paper assesses the effects of monetary policy shocks on the macroeconomy and the euro area banking sector after the global financial crisis. First, financial risk-return indicators of the banking sector based on a compound option-based structural credit risk model are embedded in a large macro-financial quarterly database covering the period 2008Q4–2019Q4. Second, a SFAVAR identifies and estimates the shocks’ responses relating them to the endogenous build-up of banks’ vulnerabilities which are consistent with the internally coherent structure of the credit risk model. By introducing structure in the understanding of banks’ asset-liability management behavior following monetary policy shocks, the research strategy contributes to disentangling results that are often mixed in the empirical literature. The study finds that unconventional monetary policy, in particular the Asset Purchase Program of the European Central Bank, seems to have been more successful than conventional monetary policy in raising output and inflation. The desired boost to bank lending has been muted and loan cyclicality has varied across countries and loan types. The performance of the banking sector following monetary policy shocks can be characterized by a drop in expected return on equity and assets, a relaxation of lending conditions and increased correlation between banks’ assets return and the market return, a mechanism pointing to enhanced risk-taking. While banks’ probabilities of default fall following monetary policy shocks, the price of risk increases. Banks’ net worth rises via higher market capitalization and implied assets value together with lower volatility, despite often incurring more debt. Risk-taking in the banking sector may pose a risk to financial stability, especially if its effects on banks’ vulnerability spread and increase systemic risk. The unintended endogenous build-up of macro-financial vulnerabilities may need to become part of monetary policymaking.     

Factors affecting monetary policy in an era of inflation

A money supply-reaction function is developed and estimated within the context of an IS-LM framework to test the responsiveness of the Federal Reserve to the government budget restraint and certain parameters of the model. The results reveal that a large portion of the recent expansion of the monetary base may be attributed to increases in government debt and provide an essential first step in quantifying the inflationary impact of deficits. The monetary base is also expanded in response to increases in inflationary expectations and previous increases in the monetary base, but is not statistically correlated to changes in the unemployment rate or potential national income, or to rises in interest rates caused by sources other than higher inflationary expectations, previous monetary policy, or the Treasury borrowing requirement.     

Health scenarios and policy making Lessons from the Netherlands

A decade ago the Dutch government established the Steering Committee on Futures Health Scenarios (STG) to organize and facilitate research and debate on alternative futures in public health. The STG has since carried out dozens of scenario projects on specific health topics, and the resulting reports have played an important role in the decision-making process within the health sector. The researchers, policy makers, and administrators who have been involved with STG activities have also learned a great deal about which methodologies, processes and organizational arrangements are best for this kind of enterprise. Those lessons are shared here for the benefit of other health agencies interested in carrying out similar programmes.     

Organizational controls and discretionary program decision making: A field study

This paper reports the results of a field study aimed at exploring how one important class of decisions— discretionary program decisions—are controlled in decentralized films. Data were collected from profit centre managers using unstructured interviews and a questionnaire survey. The data show that decisions are affected by many devices that can be called controls, including net income targets, expense targets, headcount constraints, requirements for approvals, and directives given by higher management. They also show that the effects of the controls can vary with certain characteristics of the profit centers' situation (e.g. strategy, recent performance), the management style of the company chairman, and the accounting treatment for the expenditure (i.e. whether capitalized or expensed).     

Public policy and venture capital: Pursuing the disclosure goal

Using a sample of US firms that went public between 2000 and 2011, we conduct a textual analysis of 10-K filings to jointly evaluate the impact of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act and venture capital (VC) on the disclosure practices of both VC- and non-VC-backed IPOs. We find that the annual reports of VC-backed IPOs are much more readable than the annual reports of their peers. This finding suggests that VCs introduce more clarity into financial reporting to improve the reaction in the firm market price to create value and feed their own reputation. On the contrary, we find that the Sarbanes-Oxley Act forces firms to produce longer 10-Ks consistent with the aim of the reform (Title IV) to enhance financial disclosures. In turn, this ends up to negatively impact on the readability.     

IN-QUOTES: a knowledge-based system for supporting decision making in weakly structured domains

In complex and weakly structured domains, decision makers often employ multiple techniques, including quantitative modeling and reasoning from past experiences, to address the problem at hand. As such, there has been a call for more research on developing systems that merge problem-solving approaches, such as reasoning from past experiences, with other paradigms to provide support for both the unstructured and structured aspects of the decision-making process. Development of these systems is dependent on acquiring and modeling the knowledge and expertise inherent in the process and then representing and implementing it in an appropriate form. However, in weakly structured domains, knowledge acquisition may be better described as knowledge ‘co-creation’ in which the expert and system builder work together to understand the process and lend as much structure to it as possible. In this paper, we propose that the integration of principles drawn from the paradigms of case-base reasoning, expert systems, and object-oriented programming facilitates this process by providing a powerful approach to acquire and model knowledge in a weakly structured domain. We demonstrate this approach through the development of a system designed to assist a decision maker in the performance of a difficult, somewhat unstructured design and planning task. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Financial risks,monetary policy in the QE era,and regulation

At the beginning of the present century, the literature on financial integration focused on the benefits of increased integration. In particular, the literature emphasized that a well-integrated financial system allows economic agents to engage in risk sharing while enhancing the smooth transmission of monetary policy. However, the international financial crisis of 2007-08 and the euro area sovereign debt crisis of 2009-15, brought to the fore the flip side of increased financial integration – namely, that higher financial integration among national jurisdictions creates the potential for destabilizing cross-country spillovers of capital flows. The papers in this Special Issue address financial system vulnerabilities in the aftermath of the 2007-08 financial crisis and the 2009-15 euro area crisis. In particular, the papers assess (1) vulnerabilities arising from such factors as the liberalization of financial systems, cross-country contagion, and climate change, and (2) policy responses, including macroprudential supervision and quantitative easing, to financial instabilities.     

Corporate decision making in the presence of political uncertainty: The case of corporate cash holdings

Using a quarterly panel of U.S. corporations over the period 1985–2014, we show that corporate managers respond to political uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty shocks in different ways. We proxy for political uncertainty using the Partisan Conflict Index and employ a prevalent empirical macroeconomic methodology to construct structural shocks that are orthogonal to shocks captured by the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. Following a political uncertainty shock, corporations increase cash but do not adjust investment. Alternatively, following an economic policy uncertainty shock, firms appear to draw on cash and reduce capital spending to increase research and development spending.     

A validated expert system for decision making in corporate recovery

This paper describes INSOLVE—an expert system for corporate recovery decisions. INSOLVE was built to understand the decision-making processes of corporate recovery experts who deal with companies in financial difficulties. INSOLVE has been developed using a multi-phase process similar to that widely adopted in software engineering. The expert system is described in terms of the assessment task and interpretation models of CommonKADS. The detailed results of the validation of INSOLVE with 17 experts show that it is an accurate model of human expertise in this domain. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.