Syndicated loans in emerging markets

There has been a considerable expansion of the volume of syndicated loans in emerging markets in the recent years. We provide the first analysis of the determinants of the decision of banks to syndicate a loan on a sample of loan facilities from 50 emerging countries. We show the significant role of loan characteristics and of financial development, banking regulation, and legal institutions, in the decision to syndicate a loan. We support the efforts of authorities to increase banking competition and efficiency, and to implement binding banking regulation on capital requirement to promote the expansion of syndicated loans.     

Clustering in emerging equity markets

We consider pairwise tail behavior of return series for identifying the most important emerging markets clusters. Pairs of markets belonging to the same group present similar type and strength of interdependence during stressful times, represented by a common copula and a statistically equivalent measure of tail dependence. By collapsing data from d markets in to a group we overcome the difficult problem of finding their (higher dimensional) d-variate distribution. Results may help portfolio managers to deal with risk due to co-movements within clusters. We provide examples on how this can be done. Our study contributes to the discussion about the international association among stock markets during turbulent periods, and does not confirm the intuition that the observed association between extremes should be credited to linkages to leading markets. The study also confirms the importance of stock selection, particularly among the non-dominant stocks, instead of holding market-value weighed portfolios of stocks from countries within the same region.     

Franchisors' disclosure duty: market transparency and franchisee protection

The franchisee is usually the most vulnerable part of the franchise relationship, and should therefore receive greater protection from the legal framework. In this regard, the franchisor's pre-contractual disclosure duty has evolved in its legal status. Whereas its original purpose was to ensure transparency in the market, it now serves to protect the franchisee. In this paper, we compare the franchisor's obligations established by the legal framework in Spain with those set out in the Model Law drawn up by The International Institute for the Unification of Private Law.     

The big emerging markets

During his tenure as Under Secretary of Commerce, the author was one of the architects of the Clinton administration's Big Emerging Markets policy under Secretary of Commerce Ron Brown. He is now dean of the Yale School of Management. The Clinton policy emerged out of a growing conviction that some ten markets will account for the overwhelming growth potential in world imports, not to mention commensurate growth in economic and political influence around the world. These markets include, in Asia—the Chinese Economic Area (China, Hong Kong and Taiwan), South Korea, Indonesia and India; in Africa—South Africa; in Central Europe—Poland and Turkey; and in Latin America—Mexico, Brazil and Argentina. The administration concluded that, because many of these countries still have important state sectors, and because virtually all are focusing heavily on infrastructure projects that demand the involvement of local governments, U.S. companies need the U.S. government at their side to win a fair hearing. What is more, because of the intensity of foreign competition and the capital demands on these countries, international competitors will be public/private partnerships in which foreign governments provide concessionary financing and aggressive advocacy to support their companies' efforts.This presentation is based on the author's speeches during his tenure as Under Secretary for International Trade of the U.S. Department of Commerce, June 1993 to October 1995.     

Capitalizing on emerging markets

Miller, R. (1998) Selling to Newly Emerging Markets, Westport, CT: Quorum Books, 274 pages, ISBN 1 56720 044 3 Dixon, J. and Newman, D. (1998) Entering the Chinese Market: The Risks and Discounted Rewards, Westport, CT: Quorum Books, 1 56720 137 7 Bullis, D. (1998) Doing Business in Today's India, Westport, CT: Quorum Books, 320 pages, ISBN 1 56720 136 9     

Liquidity and macroeconomic management in emerging markets

Emerging markets have received considerable attention for foreign investment and international diversification due to the possibility of higher earnings and a low level of integration with global equity markets. These high returns often need to be balanced by the high liquidity costs of trading in illiquid emerging markets. Several studies have shown that central bank and government policies are significant determinants of market liquidity. We investigate the influence of monetary and fiscal policy variables on the market and firm level liquidity of eight emerging stock markets of Asia. Using four different (il)liquidity measures and nine macroeconomic variables, we find that changes in the money supply, government expenditure and private borrowing significantly affect stock market liquidity. Illiquidity is also strongly affected by the bank rate, short-term interest rate and government borrowing. We demonstrate that ‘crowding out’ and ‘cost of funds’ effects exist in these markets. Other major findings are that some markets are more sensitive to local macroeconomic news than world factors, the impact on size based portfolios largely depends on the instruments used by the central banks and government, the liquidity of the manufacturing sector is affected by changes in any policy variables, financial institutions are only influenced by monetary policy variables, and the service sector is least affected.     

Facing Risks and Investing in Emerging Markets

The art of investing is evolving into the science of investing. As new generations of increasingly scientific investment mangers come to the task, they wi11 rely more on analysis, process and structure than on intuition, advice and whim. This does not mean heroic investment insights are a thing of the past. It means that investors will increasingly capture and apply those insights in a     

Private equity exits in emerging markets

Using deal level data from 2733 private equity (PE) deals from 35 emerging markets, we find that PE fund managers have a higher probability of successful exits in countries with better business and legal environments. We also find that they are able to mitigate the potential costs associated with inefficient and corrupt business environments to increase the probability of exits by IPOs in countries with higher levels of corruption. Moreover, we find that market shocks in the developed markets result in a negative ripple effect as the probability of successful exits, especially by way of IPOs, decreases in emerging markets.     

Investing in Asia's emerging equity markets

Asian equity markets have been hot for some time and they show no dramatic signs of cooling. The economies of the region have moved towards greater economic and financial integration while opening their capital markets to foreigners. Attracted by strong economies, credible reforms and further intentions of liberalization, global investors have made significant investments. However, the stability promised by a financially strong Japan is diminishing, and the region as a whole faces a variety of political and financial challenges.     

The volatility effect in emerging markets

We examine the empirical relation between risk and return in emerging equity markets and find that this relation is flat, or even negative. This is inconsistent with theoretical models such as the CAPM, which predict a positive relation, but consistent with the results of studies for developed equity markets. The volatility effect appears to be growing stronger over time, which we argue might be related to the increased delegated portfolio management in emerging markets. Finally, we find that the volatility effect in emerging markets is only weakly related to that in developed equity markets, which argues against a common-factor explanation.     

Understanding reserve volatility in emerging markets: a look at the long-run

In this paper, we examine long-run determinants of cross-country variation in reserve volatility for 30 emerging market economies from 1973 to 2000. Reserve holdings and openness are found to be the most important explanatory variables of reserve volatility. The empirical results are robust for a range of control variables, including monetary variables, the degree of financial development, and the level of indebtedness. We view these results as establishing interesting stylized facts that may be helpful in evaluating reserve volatility as a crisis indicator.     

Equity investment prospects in emerging markets

The Mexican debacle in late 1994 had a contagious, if short-lived impact on emerging markets. Evidence suggests that fund managers panicked and withdrew investments. Portfolio equity flows to emerging markets decreased by more than a third in 1995. The investor base shrank. The longterm case for investing in emerging markets is, however, very strong. Most of them are growing faster, some much faster, than developed countries, and are likely to yield higher returns on investment. By one estimate, emerging markets will increase their share of world stock market capitalization from 15 percent in 1995 to 45 percent in 2010. The article will review the trends in private capital flows and prospects for the future, focusing on opportunities in East Asia as an example. The author discusses the investment strategies that help explain the panic of 1995 and proposes a more analytical approach to investment in developed markets and the information needed to facilitate its adoption.     

Frontier and emerging government bond markets

We investigate correlation dynamics and diversification properties of US dollar-denominated debt issued by governments of frontier markets. Our analysis is on the aggregate, regional, and country level, with a sample covering 29 countries over the period 2001–2013. We show that the correlation between the returns of frontier government bond markets and US government bonds is time-varying, but on average close to zero. Correlations with US investment grade corporate bonds, US corporate high yield bonds, and US dollar-denominated debt issued by governments of emerging markets are substantially higher, which limits diversification benefits for investors who already own these asset classes.     

Board generational diversity in emerging markets

To identify the determinants of the generational diversity of board membership in emerging market firms, we conducted an empirical analysis using state-level social inequality indices and data on 14,598 listed/unlisted firms from 20 Eastern European countries and China. We found that, in these emerging markets, social inequality strongly inhibits the generational diversity of board membership, regardless of the gender of board members. The results also reveal that four firm attributes—board size, CEO duality, state ownership, and the presence of foreign investors from non-advanced economies as firm owners—significantly affect the age composition of board directors in line with our expectations. Two other firm attributes—ownership concentration and firm ownership by foreign investors from advanced economies—are also found to have a significant impact on board generational diversity; however, the direction of their impact contradicts our predictions. Supplementary estimations carried out by introducing various sample restrictions produce similar results, thus confirming the statistical robustness of our findings.     

Volatilities in emerging MENA stock markets

This article examines the interrelationships among the emerging stock markets of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, as well as the relationship between each MENA stock market and the larger and more developed markets of Europe and the United States. It explores whether MENA stock markets can offer international investors unique risk/return characteristics to diversify international and regional portfolios. This study adds to the existing literature by focusing—for the first time— on the dynamic relationships in the volatilities of the returns in MENA stock markets. The econometric part of the article uses the causality‐in‐variances GARCH model, the TARCH and ARCH‐M models, and VAR analysis to model conditional volatilities in stock market returns and the dynamic responses of volatilities to innovations in conditional variances. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Currency risk in emerging equity markets

The paper develops an international capital asset-pricing model (ICAPM), which includes foreign currency risk, and examines the impact of capital market liberalisation on the pricing of risks. It applies the model to data from Pacific Basin financial markets and finds substantial evidence that not only currency risk is priced in both pre- and post-liberalisation periods, but the model is superior to one which does not include currency risk. This evidence suggests that an international capital asset-pricing model, which omits currency risk, will be misspecified. Furthermore, the results imply that since currency risk is priced and investors are compensated for bearing such risk they should not be discouraged by more flexible exchange rate regimes from investing in emerging markets.     

Liquidity and stock returns in emerging equity markets

Using data for 27 emerging equity markets for the period January 1992 through December 1999, we document the behavior of liquidity in emerging markets. We find that stock returns in emerging countries are positively correlated with aggregate market liquidity as measured by turnover ratio, trading value and the turnover–volatility multiple. The results hold in both cross-sectional and time-series analyses, and are quite robust even after we control for world market beta, market capitalization and price-to-book ratio. The positive correlation between stock returns and market liquidity in a time-series analysis is consistent with the findings in developed markets. However, the positive correlation in a cross-sectional analysis appears to be at odds with market microstructure theory that has been empirically supported by studies on developed markets. Our findings regarding the cross-sectional relation between stock returns and liquidity is consistent with the view that emerging equity markets have a lower degree of integration with the global economy.     

Political conditions and currency crises in emerging markets

This article demonstrates the impact of structural political conditions on the likelihood of currency crises in emerging markets. Controlling for a standard and parsimonious set of macroeconomic variables, I find that: right-wing government is less conducive to currency crises; ‘strong’ governments (those with larger legislative majorities and those which face more fragmented legislative opposition) are also less vulnerable. Democracy also reduced the likelihood of currency crises in emerging markets; yet, in contrast to previous studies, this article does not find a significant impact of elections on the likelihood of currency crises.     

Returns on ADRs and arbitrage in emerging markets

In this paper we compare the distributions of ADR returns and the returns of the locally traded shares between Chile and Argentina. This comparison is interesting because both countries are emerging economies with a similar free market orientation and the trading hours in both countries virtually coincide with the trading hours in New York. Argentina and Chile differ, however, in two important aspects: During our sample period: (1) The Argentinean market was completely under a fixed-exchange rate system, while Chile maintained a flexible exchange rate regime; and (2) Argentina did not impose any restrictions on foreign investments, while Chile did. We find that the return distributions of the Chilean ADRs are significantly different from the distributions of the returns on the respective underlying Chilean shares. While the mean returns are the same, the return's S.D. are significantly different. In contrast, the hypothesis that the distributions of the returns on the Argentinean ADRs and the returns on their respective underlying shares are the same cannot be rejected. We then use a threshold model to estimate the transaction costs of trading the ADRs and the locally traded shares. We find that the transaction costs that must be added to the returns spread before arbitrage is possible were between 100 and 200 basis points for Chilean ADRs. It was between 66 and 165 basis points for the Argentinean ADRs. The daily return spread reversion caused by arbitrage activities was estimated to be approximately 30% for Chilean ADRs and 40% for Argentinean ADRs. Finally, we cannot reject the hypothesis that low liquidity was a major factor in the cost difference between the two countries.