ACCOUNTING FOR GOLD: THE SOUTH AFRICAN CASE

Real output measures in the UN System of National Accounts should be continually re-evaluated, to ensure they are providing indicators appropriate for user needs. The South African gold mining industry is an intriguing case in which the conventional output indicators are highly misleading for various analytical purposes, largely because the usual background assumptions are particularly invalid. Due to the size of the industry, its precise treatment can have sizeable effects on estimates of the growth of GDP, particularly over periods when the price of gold changes. A number of easily produced additional output measures are suggested to help analyse productivity growth and differences between the growth of real output and real incomes.     

城市游憩空间结构系统分析--以宁波市为例

从空间类型、空间要素、空间结构与形态等方面系统探讨了城市游憩空间结构,并以宁波市为例详细分析了其游憩物质与环境空间结构、游憩行为与需求特征、游憩行为空间分布规律等一系列要素,为宁波市的旅游开发、游憩规划提供参考价值。     

ON THE LONG-TERM EFFECTS OF FISCAL POLICY IN THE UNITED KINGDOM: THE CASE FOR A GOLDEN RULE

This paper uses the SVAR methodology to investigate the effects of public investment on GDP and, more specifically, the effects of the introduction of a golden rule of public finance. We extend the existing literature by estimating a model for the British economy that takes into account long-run factors such as public debt accumulation and policy interactions. We find that in such a long-run framework, public investment has a significant and permanently positive effect on GDP; this result runs counter to the most recent literature on the topic using SVAR, which was limited to a short-run specification. We further find, by comparing different subsamples, that the introduction of the golden rule in 1997 strengthened the positive effect of public investment.     

RATIONALE FOR DISSENT: THE CASE OF FOMC MEMBERS

This paper investigates monetary policymakers' rationale for dissent to test for a hypothesized difference in policy preferences between bank presidents and members of the Board of Governors. The paper analyzes the cited reasons for dissent, the identity of the dissenter, and uses multiple regression to make inferences regarding the differences.
Examining the identity of dissenters and the given reasons for dissent yields four conclusions, (i) A broad base of bank presidents dissent for tighter policy because they want to control inflation by keeping monetary aggregates within targeted ranges. (ii) On the other hand, board members' dissent for tighter policy is dominated by one man–Henry Wallich—who apparently was disturbed by the inflationary outbreak during the late 1970s and early 1980s. (Hi) Several board members dissent for looser policy to stimulate the real economy, (iv) But only a few bank presidents, primarily from the Northeast, dissent for looser policy with the same objective.
Regression analysis supports the assertion that bank presidents dissenting for tighter policy do so to keep monetary aggregates on target in order to control inflation. The analysis confirms Wallich's focus on inflation during the late 1970s and early 1980s. It also allows for the possibility that the various board members dissenting for looser policy either have an inherent preference for looser policy or have diverse reasons for dissent.     

数量地理方法对地理学发展的影响

简要介绍了数量地理方法的发展背景、过程和发展的推动力,从正反两面阐述了其对地理学发展的影响:数量方法对地理学的生存发展无疑起到了重要的作用,然而由于对这些工具的过分依赖,而忽视了自身的发展问题。得出结论:只要把握好地理学自身的发展方向,数量地理方法的正确应用在向社会展示地理学价值的同时,也将会解决目前地理学自身发展中的一系列问题,进而推动其理论化、科学化。     

THE MARKET FOR FRANCHISE OPPORTUNITIES*

Franchised distribution accounts for a substantial proportion of retail sales each year. This form of vertical integration is frequently found in the accompaniment of parallel distribution through company-owned establishments. Similarly, franchise contracts are characterized by mixed compensation strategies. This paper contains empirical models of the market for franchise opportunities where incentives for mixed distribution and compensation strategies are evaluated.     

ON THE REVISITED ILLYRIAN MODEL AND PERVERSITY: THE CASE OF THE LONG-RUN1

The modified theory of the Illyrian firm was developed, in part, to correct a perversity exhibited by the traditional theory of the Illyrian firm — that output rises in response to a fall in output price or a rise in fixed costs. We show that while this revised model has solved the problem for the short-run the problem remains in the long-run, and this long-run perversity may have important policy implications for the short-run as well. We also show that the under-production problem associated with the traditional LMF is mitigated (and perhaps even reversed) in the modified LMF.     

THE (IR)RELEVANCE OF THE NRU FOR POLICY MAKING: THE CASE OF DENMARK

We reconsider the central role of the natural rate of unemployment (NRU) in forming policy decisions. We show that the unemployment rate does not gravitate towards the NRU due to frictional growth, a phenomenon that encapsulates the interplay between lagged adjustment processes and growth in dynamic labour market systems. We choose Denmark as the focal point of our empirical analysis and find that the NRU explains only 33% of the unemployment variation, while frictional growth accounts for the remaining 67%. Therefore, our theoretical and empirical findings raise doubts as to whether the NRU should play such a key instrumental role in policy making.     

JAPAN: THE CASE FOR A TAYLOR RULE? A SIMPLE APPROACH

Abstract.  In this article I propose two different models for analyzing the conduct of monetary policy, facing certain expectations. The first is a autoregressive model, which implicitly accounts for adaptive expectations, while the second accounts for the rational expectations. I used these models to judge whether or not the Taylor rule can be a good benchmark for the conduct of monetary policy in Japan. The conclusion is that a simple AR model fits the data better than the Taylor rule, and that assuming rational expectations in Japan could be highly misleading, at least since the mid-1990s.     

基于学习型区位论的县域产业集聚格局研究——以中原城市群为例

产业集聚一直是经济地理学和区域经济学关注的焦点。基于河南省2000—2009年年鉴数据、2004年经济普查和基本单位普查等资料,构建以地方学习创新为核心的学习型区位论分析框架,采用Moran指数和SLM模型等分析了期间中原城市群县域工业集聚格局变化、两位数制造业的空间集聚特点,以及工业集聚的学习型区位因子特征。研究认为：学习型区位论分析框架提供了区位选择研究的新思路,考虑空间自相关性的Moran指数与SLM模型辨识了产业集聚的地域、验证了地理邻近性的影响。中原城市群县域工业集聚态势明显,经历了倒＂S＂型的发展演变,各个地域呈现出不同的发展特点,各制造业集聚表现出不同的空间特征,学习能力、集聚经济、地方学习环境和资本投入是当前促进中原城市群县域工业集聚的显著性因子。     

THE CASE FOR PAY-AS-YOU-GO PENSIONS IN A SERVICE ECONOMY

The elderly consume more labour‐intensive services than young individuals. This makes them vulnerable to rising costs of services due to higher wages, which can be caused by increased capital accumulation. This paper shows that in a model with a service sector, the golden‐rule capital stock is lower and dynamic inefficiency is more likely to occur than in the conventional one‐sector model. This implies that in many cases, a positive Pay‐As‐You‐Go tax maximises long‐run welfare in a service economy. Calculations based on data from the United Kingdom and the Netherlands show that the long‐run optimal degree of funding coincides with the current situation in these countries.     

CREDIT CONSTRAINTS IN THE MARKET FOR CONSUMER DURABLES: EVIDENCE FROM MICRO DATA ON CAR LOANS*

We investigate the significance of borrowing constraints in the market for consumer loans. Using data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey on auto loan contracts we estimate the elasticities of loan demand with respect to interest rate and maturity. We find that, with the exception of high income households, consumers are very responsive to maturity and less responsive to interest rate changes. Both elasticities vary with household income, with the maturity elasticity decreasing and the interest rate elasticity increasing with income. We argue that these results are consistent with the presence of binding credit constraints in the auto loan market.     

PRICE-COST MARGINS AND INDUSTRY STRUCTURE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE CASE OF KOREA*

The structure-conduct-performance paradigm is tested using 4-digit SIC Korean industry data for 1981 and 1986. The study investigates whether the observed institutional differences between developed and developing countries affects the performance hypothesis. The results suggest that structure and conduct variables influence price-cost margins in much the same way as they do in developed countries. Nevertheless, the Korean government's credit rationing policies, by creating entry barriers, have the most important effects on industry performance.     

THE EFFECTIVENESS OF NON‐TRADITIONAL MONETARY POLICY MEASURES: THE CASE OF THE BANK OF JAPAN*

This paper summarizes non‐traditional monetary policy measures adopted by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) during the last 2 decades and by other G7 central banks since the start of the current global financial turmoil and analyses the effectiveness of such measures. The paper begins with a typology of policies usable near the zero lower bound on interest rates. They are: (i) forward guidance of future policy rates; (ii) targeted asset purchases; and (iii) quantitative easing. Using this typology, I review the measures adopted by the BOJ and other central banks. I then offer a news analysis of the effects of the measures adopted by the BOJ on asset prices, comparing them with those adopted by the Fed. Many of the measures, with the exception of strategy (iii), are shown to have moved asset prices in the expected directions. Another exception is that most of the monetary easing measures failed to weaken the yen. Despite some effects on asset prices, however, the measures have failed to stop the deflationary trend of the Japanese economy clearly. I discuss some possible reasons for this and more general implications for monetary policy.     

FORECASTING AND POLICY EVALUATION IN ECONOMIES WITH RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS: THE DISCRETE TIME CASE*

Several techniques for solving dynamic rational expectations models have been proposed. This paper puts forward an alternative method for discrete time models, which is significantly simpler to use in practice. That solution is used to derive and compute optimal policy selections (incorporating ‘noncausal’ effects) which, by exploiting the discrete time framework, are also time consistent when sequentially reoptimized. Those decisions are shown to contain an optimal open loop component plus an innovations dependent correction mechanism. A numerical example is used to verify these properties, and to demonstrate the superiority of this policy selection technique over recursive methods (e.g. dynamic programming).