Export Demand and Botswana's Beef Industry: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach

Abstract: A 15-sector Comparable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, based on 1992/93 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), is used to simulate the effects of changes in the world price of beef on the Botswana's beef industry, employment, exports and aggregate output. Résumé: Un modèle d'équilibre général comparable à 15 secteurs, fondé sur la matrice de comptabilité sociale (MCS) de 1992/93, est utilisé pour simuler les incidences des fluctuations des prix mondiaux de la viande bovine sur l'industrie du boeuf, l'emploi, les exportations et la production globale au Botswana.     

Cost Efficiency of the Banking Sector in Vietnam: A Bayesian Stochastic Frontier Approach with Regularity Constraints

This paper investigates the cost efficiency of the Vietnamese banking industry. To obtain an appropriate estimate of cost efficiency, monotonicity and concavity constraints are incorporated in the estimation of the cost frontier using the Bayesian approach. Overall, the level of cost efficiency of Vietnam's banking sector is relatively high, around 87 percent. The findings reveal minor and insignificant differences in the cost efficiency of different groups of banks classified by ownership. Furthermore, throughout the estimation period, the industry faced a slight decrease in cost efficiency. This could be explained by increases in the costs of managing diverse activities, the enlargement of branch networks and the upgrading of the banking technology platform.     

开放经济下的结构转型:一个三部门一般均衡模型

本文在一个全要素生产率增长率不同的三部门模型中,讨论了部门之间全要素生产率变化对产业结构的影响。结果发现:当不同商品间的替代弹性比较小时,就业人口流向服务业部门的充分条件是,本国农业的全要素生产率增长率快于制造业,且制造业的全要素生产率增长率快于服务业,而国外农业的全要素生产率增长率快于制造业。通过对模型校准,本文较成功的模拟出美国的产业结构转型。美国的历史经验说明,实现产业结构的转型,关键在于提高制造业和农业的全要素生产率。     

全面减免东盟关税对中国宏观经济和产业影响的可计算一般均衡分析

Chingem模型是一个中国静态CGE模型.本文在Chingem模型的基础上,分析了2010年中国全面减免东盟原六国关税对中国宏观经济和产业的长期影响.在原模型的基础上,改进了宏观闭合条件.将原来作为剩余量处理的居民消费与居民收入联系起来,使经济增长会作用到居民消费,使模拟结果更加符合实际.研究表明全面减免对东盟的关税有利于我国经济的和谐发展;减少了经济增长对净出口的依赖;促进了进、出口商品结构的升级;促进了服务业的发展,但农业和制造业的一些部门会受到负面影响;制造业的就业会下降,服务业和农业的就业会上升.     

General Equilibrium Approach for Poverty Analysis: With an Application to Cameroon

Abstract: In this paper we use a computable general equilibrium model to study the impact of a trade shock and a tariff reform on household poverty for an archetype developing country. Unlike other studies, we present the income distribution of each household group as a Beta statistical distribution. In contrast to other studies, this paper presents the poverty lines as being endogenous. With this specification, the poverty line will change following a variation in relative prices. With the new distributions and poverty line, the poverty levels of the base year are compared with the ex‐post values. Foster, Greer and Thorbecke's (1984) poverty measures are used. We work with the Cameroon household survey data of 1995–96. We consider two scenarios. The first is a 30 percent fall in the world price of the country's export crop and the second is a reduction of 50 percent in the country's import tariffs. For the first simulation, results indicate a drop in all household incomes and a decrease in the poverty line. Unilateral trade liberalization also has negative consequences on all household incomes. As in the first simulation, the poverty line decreases with a unilateral trade liberalization. In the trade liberalization simulation, the poverty line effect counters the income effect in most cases analyzed. In the other simulation, the poverty line effect attenuates the decrease in the poverty measures.     

Quantifying Foreign Direct Investment Productivity Spillovers in China: A Computable General Equilibrium Model

For the purposes of this study, we will construct a static monopolistically‐competitive computable general equilibrium model to quantify the endogenous productivity spillovers from foreign and domestic firms, using the Chinese economy as a case study. Our simulation results indicate: (i) that the net spillover effects are positive in terms of national total output, GDP and welfare; (ii) that both state‐owned and privately‐owned firms benefit, but that private firms benefit more; (iii) that industries with large volumes of foreign direct investment (FDI) do not necessarily observe the largest spillover effects; and (iv) that the spillover effects become more prominent when the initial market structure is more concentrated.     

Structural Adjustment Policies and the Kenyan Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium Model Analysis

A computable general equilibrium model is used to analyse policies under structural adjustment programmes for Kenya. The model was used to analyse the economic implications of two key elements in the structural adjustment programmes, namely fiscal adjustment and trade liberalization. In each case, three options were considered: fiscal adjustment through expenditure cuts, indirect tax increases and direct tax increase; trade liberalization through tariff reductions with no mitigating measures, accompanied by indirect tax increases or by increased foreign aid. Although the results do not support the application of one option in respect of all variables, they suggest that fiscal austerity through raising indirect taxes and trade liberalization supported by foreign aid inflows achieve the best overall outcomes. Un modèle d'équilibre général calculable est utilisé pour analyser les politiques mises en œuvre dans le cadre des programmes d'ajustement structurel au Kenya. Ce modèle a servi à analyser les implications économiques de deux éléments fondamentaux des programmes d'ajustement structurel, à savoir l'ajustement des politiques budgétaires et la libéralisation des échanges. Dans chaque cas, trois options ont été envisagées: l'ajustement des politiques budgétaires par la compression des dépenses et l'augmentation des impôts indirects et directs; la libéralisation des échanges par l'abaissement des tarifs douaniers sans mesures d'atténuation, accompagnée de l'augmentation des impôts indirects ou de l'aide extérieure. Si les résultats ne permettent pas de privilégier l'une ou l'autre option, compte tenu de toutes les variables, ils portent à croire néanmoins que l'austérité budgétaire par l'augmentation des impôts indirects et la libéralisation des échanges soutenue par des apports d'aide extérieure favorisent les meilleurs résultats globaux.     

Policy Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in a Two‐country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model: Evidence from China*

In this paper, we construct a two‐country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to investigate the sources of business cycles in China and the contributions of policy shocks in economic fluctuations. The empirical results from Bayesian estimation show that, apart from the traditional supply and demand shocks, monetary and fiscal policy shocks also play important roles in determining China's economic fluctuations. In addition, we find significant feedback effects between monetary and fiscal policies in China, indicating that policy coordination is an important feature of China's monetary and fiscal policies. Overall, these results not only shed new light on the policy factors behind China's economic fluctuations, but also provide new evidence that is helpful for understanding the policy transmission mechanisms in China.     

实际经济周期理论与动态一般均衡模型

实际经济周期理论使用一般均衡的框架分析经济波动现象 ,认为经济周期是理性个体对实际冲击调整的结果 ,从而波动本身是Pareto最优的 ,任何的政府干预只能改变一部分人的福利水平。实际经济周期理论对宏观经济学的贡献不仅仅在于其倡导的理论本身 ,也在于其为宏观经济学提供的建模方法———动态一般均衡模型。     

泛太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协定对中国纺织品服装出口的潜在影响——基于一般均衡模型的评估

本文基于全球贸易分析(GTAP)一般均衡(CGE)模型,就TPP对中国纺织品服装出口的潜在影响进行了定量评估。研究结果表明,TPP实施后,在贸易转移效应和美洲及亚洲纺织品服装区域性生产贸易网络(RPTN)等因素的共同作用下,中国对美国、日本和北美自由贸易区(主要为加拿大)市场的服装出口将大幅减少;中国纺织品一定程度上可以享受越南和亚洲地区TPP成员对进口纺织品需求增加而带来的额外出口机会,但也将面临日本纺织品贸易转移效应的冲击;日本加入TPP对中国纺织品服装出口负面影响巨大。本文的研究内容和结论对于我国广大纺织服装出口企业了解TPP生效后出口环境的变化以及国家层面贸易、产业政策的制定具有重要的参考价值。     

ASEAN Economic Community: A General Equilibrium Analysis*

The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) is the largest integration effort attempted in the developing world; if realized, it will create a single market with the free movement of goods, services, foreign direct investment and skilled labor, and freer movement of capital encompassing nearly 600 million people. This study, a first attempt to evaluate the full benefits of the AEC, finds that the project could produce gains similar to those resulting from the European Single Market, amounting to 5.3 percent of the region's income. The benefits could be doubled if, as expected, regional integration also leads to new free trade agreements with key external partners. The whole region will share in these gains. There will be mild trade and investment diversion effects for some other countries, but the world will benefit too. Nevertheless, the AEC poses political challenges: the present study finds that the project will imply significant structural adjustments in several ASEAN economies.     

Population Ageing and Pension System Reform in China: A Computable Overlapping-Generations General Equilibrium Model Analysis

Over the next 50 years, China will face an increase of its old-age population by approximately three times. Such a demographic change may result in a large increase of pension payments, which would require a significant rise in the pension contribution rate. This also implies important intergenerational redistribution issues and may even harm living standards as a whole. This paper analyses for China the economic impact of an ageing population by means of a computable dynamic general equilibrium model with an overlapping generations structure. The paper explores the effect on the social security system and economic development of China under alternative scenarios for the benefit rates on pensions, retirement age and technological progress. Our research indicates that a pension reform plus positive technological progress can compensate for the menace of a decline in living standards for both seniors and working generations.     

人民币国际化的经济效应:一般均衡分析

人民币国际化进程已经开始,人民币国际化必将会对中国宏观经济内外均衡造成影响,这已经成为众多国内学者的共识。但很少有学者运用模型来分析人民币国际化的经济效应。本文通过一个简单的一般均衡模型,分析了在固定汇率制和浮动汇率制下,人民币国际化对中国宏观经济、货币、财政政策以及货币危机的影响。     

Estimating the Impact of Transgenic Bt Cotton on West and Central Africa: A General Equilibrium Approach

West and Central Africa (WCA)’s cotton sector is experiencing rising production costs and lower yields, reversing decades of growth. Declining input use, soil fertility and inefficient chemical pest controls are contributing factors. We evaluate the potential impact of Bt cotton on WCA using a multiregion general equilibrium model and multicountry estimates of Bt-induced productivity. We find that Bt cotton raises growers’ returns, land value and welfare. Released labor from cotton is shifted to food crops hence reducing labor shortage constraints. Overall, results indicate that potential gross benefits from Bt cotton are substantial for WCA cotton sector, and that the economic costs of nonadoption are equally significant.     

Indeterminacy and Pollution Haven Hypothesis in a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model

This paper develops a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy in which production activities are accompanied by pollution emissions that have a negative effect on welfare. It is shown that the dynamic equilibrium may display indeterminacy (i.e., continuum of dynamic equilibrium paths converging to a common steady state), depending on (i) the relationship between capital intensity and pollution intensity, (ii) the property of households’ discount rate as a function of total pollution, and (iii) the pollution-consumption relationship in instantaneous utility. In addition, the effect of environmental policy on the economy’s comparative advantage and its relation to indeterminacy are examined.     

不同环节燃油税征收的动态一般均衡分析与政策选择

本文采用中国动态可计算一般均衡模型(MCHUGE),从"经济(税收)-节能-减排"三重角度,比较了燃油税在零售环节、批发环节和生产环节(含进口环节)的征收效果。研究表明,燃油税在生产环节征收能耗环保效果显著,但对经济的损害较大;在零售环节征收对经济损害小,但能耗环保效果一般;批发环节的征税效果介于前面二者之间,但征税成本较低,符合广税基原则和中国税改方向。因此燃油税适合于批发环节征收,但同时应注意由此带来的通货膨胀的负面影响。     

经济集约化增长的一般均衡分析

本文在两时期代际交叠模型(OLG)的基础上建立了一个分析经济集约化增长的一般均衡分析模型。我们发现，在均衡时，经济增长的集约化程度等于劳动者报酬在总收入中所占有的比重，本文的实证研究表明这一结论基本符合发达国家的经验。结合发达国家以及新兴工业化国家经济增长方式转变的经验，在本文的最后给出了我国经济增长方式转变的政策建议。