欧元区的危机是国际收支失衡危机

欧元区内的失衡,反映在欧洲第二代实时清算系统(TARGET2,即欧元体系的银行间支付系统)中,即各中央银行间的收支不平衡。截至2011年12月,北方欧元区国家的中央银行累计净头寸达到8000亿欧元,而南方欧元区国家则累计了相同规模的负头寸。早期有关欧洲货币联盟的文献指出,在货币联盟之内,各成员国之间的收支     

The Simple Analytics of Evaluating NFL Trades

Atlantic Economic Journal -     

Informational Contagion of Sudden Stops in a Global Games Framework

This paper highlights the cross-country spread of self-fulfilling financial crises through an informational channel. It sets up a two-country framework of investment with strategic complementarities and incomplete information about economic fundamentals. Each market may be subject to sudden stops, triggered by agents preemptively withdrawing their investments for fear others do so. After observing a massive capital outflow from one country, agents downgrade common fundamentals, and therefore have higher requirements regarding factors specific to the other country. This in turn may induce a crisis in the latter, which is not justified by idiosyncratic events or economic interdependence.     

Surges and Sudden Stops of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

A characteristic of many of the recent emerging market currency crises is a preceding surge in capital inflows and their reversals or ‘sudden stops’ during the crises. The empirical investigation of 38 emerging market economies between 1990 and 2003 reveals that a surge in capital inflows significantly increases the probability of a sudden stop. In addition, a surge accompanied by a high current account deficit or an appreciated real exchange rate is more likely to be associated with a sudden stop. The paper also finds that a surge that is dominated by private loans and portfolio flows rather than direct investment has a higher probability to end with a sudden stop.     

资本流入的突然中断与经常账户赤字的有效调节

本文选择93个国家在1977～2007年的相关数据为样本,分析了全球性经常账户失衡的现状。在深入剖析经常账户高赤字的具体融资途径及其经济影响的基础上,本文利用Probit模型对资本流入突然中断对经常账户赤字调节的影响进行实证检验,发现资本流入突然中断能够显著影响经常账户赤字的调节,并对其经济意义进行阐释。最后就此次金融危机后全球经常账户的状态进行预测,指出此次金融危机的发生不会带来全球经常账户失衡的改善。     

北京节能减排十大工程

2007年是奥运筹备决战之年，也是落实“十一五”规划、建设资源节约型和环境友好型城市的关键一年。近日．北京市发改委、市环保局等7部门联合发布“加快发展循环经济建设资源节约型环境友好型城市2007年行动计划”，明确提出北京今年节能减排目标：单位国内生产总值（GDP）能耗下降5％、单位GDP水耗下降5％、化学需氧量（COD）排放量下降3％。     

“小巨人”崛起之谜——看淄博市如何发展民营科技

●中国的民营经济企业拥有着巨大的潜力。而在淄博市,民营企业的重点已经涉足于高科技领域,并且取得了一定的成绩。 ●从淄博市发展民营科技的路子中可以看出,人才是第一位的,但同时也需要一块“优质的土壤”。     

新时期突发性群体冲突的表现

当前我国正经历着一场广泛而深刘的社会变革．从而带来全民利益格局的大调整,这势必引发各社会群体之间利益上的矛盾与磨擦,进而爆发突发性群体冲突。研究突发性群体冲突的表现,对于正确认识突发性群体冲突,掌握突发性群体冲突的特点及规律,正确处理冲突有着重大的现实意义。     

The Simple Analysis of The Great Gatsby

The Great Gatsby, written by Francis Scott Fitzgerald and first published in 1925 as a good illustration of the pursuit and failure of the American Dream, has attracted, impressed, and influenced a large number of readers. T.S. Eliot once praised this novel as the first step of American literature since Henry James＇. The story is told by Nick Carraway .     

On the Determinants of Surges and Stops in Foreign Loans: An Empirical Investigation

This paper examines the determinants of surge and stop episodes in foreign loans using quarterly data from 55 countries covering 1990Q1 to 2011Q4. The estimation results show that, first, global, contagion and domestic factors are all significantly associated with both loan-led surge and stop episodes. Second, domestic factors are more relevant to stops than to surges and are associated more strongly with episodes in emerging countries than with those in advanced countries. Third, global risk and domestic growth shock are most consistent and important in predicting both types of episodes. Fourth, financial linkage is the most important contagion channel in the occurrence of loan-led episodes. Fifth, capital control is not a useful tool for avoiding either type of episode and may actually increase their likelihood. Finally, stops in emerging countries are strongly related to macroeconomic fundamentals such as inflation, current account balance, net foreign assets, real exchange rate, and previous occurrence of surge episodes. Our results strongly suggest that emerging countries with lower institutional quality levels are more likely to experience both surges and stops.     

突发事件应急管理的国际经验与借鉴

突发事件所具有的突然性、紧迫性、可变性与破坏性等使得政府应急管理直接关乎人民群众生命财产安全以及国家经济社会发展全局。对美国突发事件危机管理的经验考察,以及对我国突发事件应急管理的审视表明,应借鉴美国经验,通过提升突发事件的监测预警、快速反应、全面动员、自救互救、应急指挥等能力,进一步完善我国突发事件应急管理,全方位提高全社会突发事件应急管理与救援水平,从而尽可能减少突发事件的发生,并把突发事件带来的损失降至最低限度。     

平平淡淡才是真

上个世纪末,随着济南市房地产业的升温,参与房地产交易的人员也不断增多,在这庞大的队伍中,有一个群体特别引人关注--置业顾问,我们习惯上称之为售楼小姐. 在人们的印象中,从事售楼这个职业的女性,成熟、机灵、善言,她们穿着不菲的套装,化着精致的淡妆,签着大额台同,事着高额的提成.当越来越多的人茶余饭后都在谈论房子时,售楼小姐自然也成了人们关注的焦点.这个行业让许多人为之羡慕、为之倾倒.     

我对金融危机的感受

最近,20国集团财政部长和央行行长在伦敦召开紧急会议,商讨如何应对目前的全球经济危机.如今他们有什么进展?似乎针对普通百姓的应对措施少得可怜.他们宣称20国集团将团结一致,采取一切可行的措施尽快使全球经济制度恢复正常,否则事态不会有好转甚至会变得更糟.那些应对措施并没有对那些丢了饭碗、工厂破产、以及存款尽失的普通人带来多少支持和鼓励.我们究竟何时陷入如此大的困境?我们又该如何逃脱呢?     

The Performance of Simple Fiscal Policy Rules in Monetary Union

The paper analyses the stabilising potential of simple fiscal policy rules for a small open economy in monetary union in a 2-region DSGE model with nominal and real rigidities. We consider simple fiscal instrument rules for government purchases, transfers, and consumption, labour and capital taxes in analogy to interest rate rules in monetary policy. The paper finds a dichotomy in the welfare effects of fiscal policy for liquidity-constrained and intertemporal optimising households, i.e. policies enhancing the welfare of one group tend to reduce the welfare of the other one. The moderate average welfare gains from optimal policy contrast with potentially large welfare losses from non-optimal policy. Fiscal rules that respond to employment fluctuations may be preferred to fiscal rules responding to indicators of price competitiveness, because optimal policy corresponds more closely to the idea of countercyclical stabilisation in the former case. The simulations also emphasise the crucial impact of the budgetary closure rule on the welfare consequences of fiscal business-cycle stabilisation.     

简单即智慧

一日,看到一个故事：一位知府新上任不久,想考察—下手下3位官员的办事能力,就说：“我需要一根针,你们准备一下。”说完就走出正堂。3位官员第二天都没来办公,在家完成知府布置的任务。3天后,知府在府衙办公时,李官员来了说：“大人,您说需要一根针,为了表示我的诚意,我特意买了一根杵,日夜在家打磨,需再过几天才能给您。”知府听了不语。一会儿,刘官员来了说：“大人,在下买了各种针数十种,而且买了数十种线,供大人使用。”知府听了,默不作声。后来,王官员来了,说：“大人,老父生病在家照看了两日,您要的一根针我从家里拿来了,您看合不合适,如不合适,我再到街上买。”知府笑了,说：“很好,我要的就是这个。”随后,知府便把王官员举荐给朝廷,李官员和刘官员很不服气。知府说：“我要的是一根针,没让你们想得那么复杂,凡事简单点,简单才是智慧。”     

突发性水污染事故应急监测体系的研究

目前,我国已进入水污染事故的高发期.应急监测体系作为突发性水污染事故处理的重要组成部分,对突发性水污染事故应急监测具有指导作用.通过对突发性水污染事故应急监测体系建设的研究,将监测体系分为应急监测预案、装备体系、技术体系、能力体系、信息体系5个部分,为我国突发性水污染事故的监测和管理提供了一种思路.     

新制度经济学的意识形态理论简评

新制度经济学运用经济学的概念和分析工具,将意识形态作为影响经济绩效和制度演进的内生变量纳入分析框架,建构了颇具特色的意识形态理论.这一理论的主要内容包括意识形态的实质和起源、意识形态的变化、成功的意识形态的特征、意识形态的人力资本理论以及意识形态在经济发展和制度稳定或变迁中的作用等问题.新制度经济学较为成功地探讨了意识形态的经济性功能、制度性作用,对仍处于经济转轨和社会转型的后发型的中国等国家来说也不乏借鉴和启示意义.但是,如同任何其他理论一样,这一理论也有其不完善及有失偏颇的一面.     

构建突发事件危机管理的心理干预机制

突发事件往往会对人造成多方面的伤害,特别是对人的心理影响不容忽视,为突发事件受害人提供心理援助和应急心理干预,有助于社会公众及当事人正确对待突发事件的影响,对和谐社会的构建和安定的社会局面也有重要的意义。     

论当代中国政治发展的核心理念

政治发展特指一个国家民主政治发展的方向、进程和实现程度与结果,它是由生产力和生产关系的矛盾运动引起的,对经济生活以及全部社会生活起着巨大的推动作用,是经济发展和社会发展的重要条件。改革开放以来,中国政治发展和政治体制改革长期围绕以经济建设为中心展开,为经济发展和市场经济体制的建设提供了可靠的政治保障。党的十六大的召开标志着中国政治发展进入了一个以"发展社会主义民主政治,建设社会主义政治文明"为目标的新时期。胡锦涛同志曾发表讲话将中国政治发展的核心理念概括为"立党为公,执政为民"的"以人为本"的思想,从而奠定了21世纪中国政治发展的民主政治建设的基本理念和发展方向。