试论经济制裁

经济制裁是国际行为体之间一种常见的冲突行为。结合国际经济学和国际政治学的视角进行探讨 ,可以较清楚地认识制裁的机制和效用。虽然经济制裁的效果受到诸多因素的制约 ,但是由于经济制裁有巨大的政治影响力和实用性 ,因此在国际社会中仍然被广泛地应用 ,成为维护国家安全和实现国家利益的重要的对外政策手段     

美国域外经济制裁及其冲突探析

域外经济制裁是美国对外经济制裁的一种重要方式。20世纪80年代以来,特别是在两极格局解体后,美国域外经济制裁一度空前增加。作为国内法的国际延伸,美国经济制裁的域外适用不仅引发了复杂的政策争议,还引起了相关国家之间的法律与经济冲突。作者通过对美国域外经济制裁的政策考虑和法律依据的分析,认为美国域外经济制裁的最终结果在很大程度上取决于国际力量的对比和各自对不同价值目标的平衡。     

俄白哈三国反对美欧对白俄罗斯实施经济制裁

3月11日,俄罗斯、白俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦三国总理发布联合声明,表示不允许美国和欧盟对白俄罗斯实施经济制裁。声明说,美国和欧盟多次声称要对白俄罗斯实施经济制裁,制裁举措将为俄白哈三国统一经济空间内的贸易和经济合作制造人为障碍,使欧亚大陆的一体化合作与发展受损。     

缅甸民主化进程中美国制裁的作用及其挑战

美国对缅甸长达20多年的经济制裁使得缅甸处于内忧外患的境地,然而,美国的制裁却并没有达到其预期的效果。美国总统奥巴马上台以后调整对缅战略,采取接触和制裁相结合的新策略,这一方面是对缅甸民主化进程中取得的成果的积极回应以推动民主化的深入发展,另一方面也是美国"重返亚洲"战略的一部分。本文通过美国对缅甸制裁历史的简要叙述,对缅甸民主化进程中美国制裁的作用及其挑战进行分析,并探析缅甸在美国对缅战略调整中的政策转变以及对中国的影响。     

金融制裁效力指数的构建和应用——以美国对俄罗斯金融制裁为例

21世纪以来,金融制裁的使用日趋频繁和成熟,已成为美国对外经济政策的常态化工具。通过梳理2014—2022年美国对俄罗斯实施的各项金融制裁,基于政策量化思想和指数衰减函数构建了金融制裁效力指数,从政策目标、作用对象和参与主体总结其趋势特征,归纳俄乌冲突以来美国对俄罗斯金融制裁的新突破。为展现金融效力指数的应用,使用结构向量自回归模型实证验证美国金融制裁对俄罗斯卢布汇率、物价水平及出口商品的冲击。其启示是：中国应高度重视美西方对外经济金融制裁带来的严重冲击和影响;深入研究金融制裁的逻辑和规律;借鉴俄罗斯反制裁的创新方式,健全对外制裁和反制裁体系;通过国际组织建立国际经济金融制裁的约束机制;进一步优化中国经济金融对外开放政策。     

经济制裁对目标国汇率变动的影响：基于30个经济体的实证研究

俄乌冲突以来，美欧对俄罗斯采取了一系列经济制裁，卢布汇率波幅巨大。文章创新性地在国内首次将经济制裁纳入影响汇率变动的因素中，通过构建泰勒规则汇率模型，采用2000～2018年国际经济制裁和30个国家汇率变动匹配面板数据进行实证检验。研究结果显示，经济制裁显著加剧了目标国汇率波动，但对汇率水平变动影响并不显著。进一步研究发现，多边制裁、贸易制裁、联合国和欧盟发起的经济制裁会给目标国汇率波动带来更大的负面影响。经济制裁对发展中国家与新兴市场国家、人均收入水平较低、经济全球化程度较低国家的汇率波动产生更大的不利冲击。     

金融制裁效力指数的构建和应用——以美国对俄罗斯金融制裁为例北大核心

21世纪以来，金融制裁的使用日趋频繁和成熟，已成为美国对外经济政策的常态化工具。通过梳理2014—2022年美国对俄罗斯实施的各项金融制裁，基于政策量化思想和指数衰减函数构建了金融制裁效力指数，从政策目标、作用对象和参与主体总结其趋势特征，归纳俄乌冲突以来美国对俄罗斯金融制裁的新突破。为展现金融效力指数的应用，使用结构向量自回归模型实证验证美国金融制裁对俄罗斯卢布汇率、物价水平及出口商品的冲击。其启示是：中国应高度重视美西方对外经济金融制裁带来的严重冲击和影响；深入研究金融制裁的逻辑和规律；借鉴俄罗斯反制裁的创新方式，健全对外制裁和反制裁体系；通过国际组织建立国际经济金融制裁的约束机制；进一步优化中国经济金融对外开放政策。     

奥巴马政府对朝政策新思维

朝核试验后,奥巴马政府的对朝政策发生了重大变化,严厉谴责了朝鲜的挑衅行为,并拟对朝鲜进行经济制裁和拦截朝鲜的船只。从奥巴马和美国政府官员的言行分析,美国仍将会对朝鲜采取强硬的外交政策,诸如政治孤立、经济制裁、贸易禁运和军事封锁,促使朝鲜彻底放弃核武器。在美国内外交困的情况下,将会依靠国际社会特别是中国加大对朝鲜的制裁力度,但不会对朝鲜发动先发制人的军事打击。     

美国金融制裁对美元国际地位的影响及中国的应对

文章从各类制裁措施对美元国际地位及国际货币职能的依赖性角度分析了美国常用的8种对外金融制裁措施。在假设的场景下对比了中国实施类似金融制裁的可行性及原因，进而分析美国金融制裁对美元国际地位之反作用的影响因素，并对21世纪以来美国三次主要的金融制裁与美元地位的关系进行经验分析，最后提出中国应对美国金融制裁的策略。     

核危机下的美国表情

6月24日,美国总统奥巴马表情严肃地下令,把美国对朝鲜的经济制裁延长一年。这是美国对朝鲜引起核危机所作出的强硬表态。这种用制裁解决问题的办法并不实用,但美国人坚持还要这么做。时下的美国国内经济不振,外交困难重重,这让奥巴马的面孔越来越少了微笑多了凝重。尤其是核危机下的奥巴马的表情,这也让人看到了时下美国人的不安。     

我国反倾销的现状格局及对称性分析

文章利用1995-2013年的相关数据,从涉案总量、国别和行业层面考察了中国遭遇反倾销与对外反倾销的现状,并运用指控对称性指数和制裁对称性指数对中美和中欧双边反倾销的对称性进行了分析。结果表明,入世以来,中国遭遇的反倾销指控和制裁呈现出跳跃式增长,中国与欧美之间的反倾销指控和制裁都具有明显的不对称性,目前中国通过反倾销手段来保护国内产业安全的能力还相当薄弱。     

Do International Sanctions Reduce Household and Government Consumption in Developing Countries?

This paper uses a panel of 30 developing countries over the 1996-2015 period to study the effect that international sanctions have on household and government consumption in target countries. I use a broad set of sanctions covering different aspects of sanctions. The panel model estimates show that sanctions have heterogeneous effect on household and government consumption. Household consumption responds significantly negative to noneconomic sanctions. Government consumption, in contrast, is negatively associated with intensity of sanctions, economic sanctions, plurilaterial sanctions, EU sanctions and U.S. sanctions. Disaggregating government consumption reveals that the intensity of sanctions increases government expenditure on subsidies and transfers, while government expenditure on goods and services is not correlated with sanctions. With regard to health outcomes, there is no clear evidence that sanctions are significantly associated with either life expectancy or infant mortality in target countries.     

Serfdom and social capital in Bohemia and Russia1

The ‘horizontal’ social capital generated by networks and communities is widely regarded as inherently antagonistic to ‘vertical’ hierarchies such as serfdom. This article examines this view using evidence from pre‐Emancipation Bohemia and Russia. It finds that serf communes generated a substantial ‘social capital’ of shared norms, common information, and collective sanctions. But communal social capital was manipulated by village elites who collaborated with overlords in taxation, land regulation, and demographic control. This benefited communal oligarchies, but harmed ordinary serfs and the wider economy. Horizontal social capital and vertical hierarchies, the article demonstrates, can as easily collude as conflict.     

Nuclear bombs and economic sanctions

We examine the efficacy of trade sanctions when a target's action causes an irrevocable change in the status quo; for example, sanctions to stop a target's nuclear weapons development program. We find that when a sanctioning country cannot precommit to maintain sanctions long after a target becomes a nuclear power, sanctions are not only inefficacious but they backfire, spurring a target to intensify its effort to complete the nuclear program. If the nuclear program has several stages to complete, gradually increasing sanctions as the nuclear threat becomes more imminent may also backfire even though the program is potentially stoppable when sufficient pressure is applied earlier on. We also discuss the policy implications of our analysis.     

Forecasting the impact of economic sanctions on the development of the Russian aircraft industry

The article has analyzed the prospects for the development of Russia’s aircraft industry in the context of international economic sanctions. It has been shown that the forced localization of the entire technological chain of aircraft production in Russia may lead to the increase in the contribution of the industry to Russia’s GDP. However, since the national labor productivity is lower than the world average, the development of the industry’s production potential would require a significant rise in investment.     

Contract enforcement,institutions, and social capital: the Maghribi traders reappraised1

Social scientists draw important lessons for modern development from the medieval Maghribi traders who, it has been argued, lacked effective legal mechanisms for contract enforcement and instead relied on informal sanctions based on collective ostracism within an exclusive coalition. We show that this claim is untenable. Not a single empirical example adduced as evidence of the putative coalition shows that a coalition actually existed. The Maghribi traders made use of the formal legal system in order to enforce agency agreements in long‐distance trade. A subset of the traders did form a web of trusted business associates that contributed to informal contract enforcement, but this was very different from the hypothesized coalition, in neither being exclusive nor having a clearly defined membership. The Maghribi traders combined reputation‐based sanctions with legal mechanisms, in ways that resemble the practices of medieval European merchants. We find no evidence that the Maghribi traders had more ‘collectivist’ cultural beliefs than their European counterparts.     

Strategy of transition to economic growth

The author analyses the factors that predetermined the negative dynamics of the Russian GDP in 2015 and expresses a number of ideas that should be implemented in order to achieve recovery in Russia. The author pays special attention to mutual economic sanctions in Russia and the West, decision errors made by the country’s financial authorities, and proposals for adjustments to national macroeconomic policy.     

国际制裁缘何难以奏效?——“非故意后果”的视角

国际制裁一直面临着有效性不足的困境。既有研究将之归因于制裁有效性发挥的三大必要条件——足够的制裁强度、准确的承受主体和可信的制裁承诺——得不到满足,但忽视了制裁的非故意后果的作用。非故意后果是制约国际制裁有效性的重要因素之一,它削弱了制裁方的意志,却增强了被制裁方的抵抗决心;增加了制裁持续时长和制裁成本,却阻碍了主要制裁目标的实现。在既有研究基础上,作者首先提出了一个探讨制裁的非故意后果的分析框架,其次对非故意后果影响制裁有效性的作用机制进行了分析,最后以联合国为例探讨了制裁方在应对非故意后果问题上的尝试。     

Russian enterprises at the end of 2016: Reaction to varying ruble exchange rate and the workforce situation

This article represents an analysis of and comments on the results of a regular survey of Russian enterprises operating in the real sector, which was conducted by the Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences. It represents opinions of enterprises, the modern macroeconomic problems of which they believe to be the most acute. This article considers the responses of enterprises regarding how their activities have been affected by the mutual sanctions between Russia and Western countries, as well as by Russia’s WTO accession. We have shown the opinions of enterprises on their interests in the ruble exchange rate. This ref lects the current situation with the workforce at enterprises and gives data on their participation in solving of housing problems faced by their employees. This article contains information on how enterprises rate today’s level of competition with foreign manufacturers on Russian markets.     

Do People Accurately Anticipate Sanctions?

We provide lab data from four different games that allow us to study whether people have accurate expectations regarding monetary sanctions (punishment/reward) and nonmonetary sanctions (disapproval/approval). Although the strength of the sanction is always predicted with some error (particularly in the case of monetary sanctions), we observe that (i) most subjects anticipate correctly the sign of the average sanction, (ii) expectations covary with sanctions, (iii) the average expectation is very often not significantly different than the average actual sanction, and (iv) the errors exhibit no systematic bias, except in those situations where rewards are frequent. In this line, we find some evidence that punishment is better anticipated than rewards.