More or Less Ambition in the Doha Round: Winners and Losers from Trade Liberalisation with a Development Perspective

What is at stake in the standoff and suspension of the Doha Round of trade talks? What impact would an agreement based on greater or lesser levels of ambition have on developing countries, whose economies are relatively dependent on agriculture? Using the MIRAGE computable general equilibrium model of the global economy, in this article we compare different scenarios for the Doha agricultural and NAMA negotiations, taking real numbers from the proposals on the table from the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) in December 2005. The results for both scenarios demonstrate the high stakes for successful completion of this negotiation given the positions articulated by the countries involved. A cooperative reform outcome by the US and the EU – based on the most ambitious components of their negotiating proposals – delivers noticeably more benefits than an unambitious outcome. We measure the degree of ambition in each scenario by the construction of a Mercantilist Trade Restrictiveness Index and focus the analysis on the impacts on developing countries.     

从发展权视角下看多哈回合“棉花议题”

棉花问题作为WTO多哈回合谈判的关键议题之一,从其提出之初就充斥着大量的争议,目前国际社会对其能否在短时间内达成突破性进展感到强烈的疑虑。然而从发展权角度看该议题,将其与人权相联系似乎会给我们提供另外一种解决的思路。参照WTO平衡TRIPS与公共健康矛盾的模式,借助于争端解决机制,在目前多哈谈判濒临崩溃的境况下,它不失为一种相对合理的方式。     

Trade Unions and the National Training Reform Agenda in Australia, 1983—1996

From its election in 1983 to its defeat in 1996, the Labor Government in Australia initiated major reforms to the vocational education and training (VET) system. Here the author examines these reforms from the perspective of ‘skilled-oriented unionism’—a strategy explicitly followed by unions in Australia. While much progress was achieved, particularly at national and industry levels, enterprise-based reform lagged behind, reflecting the relative strengths and weaknesses of union organisation. In addition, union conflict and uncertainty over the appropriate labour market orientation for VET adversely affected the reform agenda.     

STRATEGIC ORIENTATION,CAPABILITIES, AND PERFORMANCE IN MANUFACTURER — 3PL RELATIONSHIPS

This study examines how two dimensions of strategic orientation (customer and competitor orientation) influence logistics and market performance. Two capabilities, operational flexibility and collaboration, are studied. Data were collected from manufacturers working with third party logistics providers. The findings suggest that customer and competitor orientations have different influences upon performance when leveraged through the capabilities. Competitor orientation, while having a detrimental direct effect on logistics performance, appears to be the better strategic approach, when supported with operational flexibility since it results in enhanced logistics (efficiency) and market (effectiveness) performance. Customer orientation, on the other hand, greatly improves logistics performance, i.e., internal efficiency.     

The Valuation of Equity Futures on the Tokyo Stock Exchange: 1920–1923

The futures price of an asset should depend on the spot price of that asset, the interest rate, cash flows during the contract term, the convenience yield, and storage costs. Despite many tests of the spot–future relation for commodities in historical periods, there have been no tests of this historical relation for equities. We price single‐stock equity futures on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between 1920 and 1923 and find that mispricing is considerably worse than in contemporary U.S. markets, after adjusting for (unavoidable) asynchronous data issues. The main cause of the mispricing is short‐sales constraints, rather than investor naivety. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark     

Changes in factors influencing consumer debt among Scottish families, 1984—1987

The major objective of this study was to determine socio-economic and debt management factors causing debt problems among Scottish families. Data for this study were collected from the records of the debt counselling segment of the Citizens Advice Bureau in Glasgow, Scotland, during 1984–87. The final sample consisted of 404 cases selected at random. Variables selected for the study included the following socio-economic characteristics: sex, household size, marital status, employment status, sources of income, and total income. Debt variables included in the study were total debt, sources of debt, amount of debt from each source, and total monthly debt payment. Total debt owed by debtors increased by 283% over the 4 year period from 295,113 in 1984 to 836,409 in 1986. The majority of the households had debt to income ratio of 0.50 and on the average owed on eight different types of loans. The largest proportion of debtors (87%) borrowed from finance companies and the largest sums of total debt were also owed to finance companies (52%). Finance companies consistently held this position over the 4 year period. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) results indicate that employment status, number of sources of borrowing, marital status and sex significantly explained the variation in total debt burden. The number of sources is an important factor in debt management. As the numbers of sources of borrowing increases, not only the management of transactions gets complicated and one can easily lose sight of total debt burden, but it also indicates that people start borrowing from high cost sources of borrowing, such as store credit and finance companies. Educators need to emphasize the importance of the variation in cost of borrowing related to various sources in their materials, and these educational efforts should be targeted to females, singles and those who are recently separated and divorced.     

Life-time income of men and women — the case in Denmark

Life-time income is estimated here including the money value of household work. A modified opportunity principle is used, which means that non-employed women's price of time is found by calculating reservation wage rates. The overall results demonstrate that Danish women's ‘loss' of labour income during the child caring period is difficult for them to regain, and just to reach the same level of income as childless Danish women seems impossible; furthermore Danish men get a higher life-time income than Danish women even when we add the money value of household work.     

Consumer Boycotts in the United States, 1970–1980: Contemporary Events in Historical Perspective

Despite the theoretical and practical interest in consumer boycotts, little in the way of an empirical literature has accumulated on this form of marketplace action. The present study surveyed news sources and participants in an effort to understand consumer boycotts which occurred in the United States in the 1970–1980 period. A total of 90 boycotts was identified and described. The findings indicate that boycotts have involved an unusually wide variety of protest groups, target organizations, and social concerns in cities and states in every region of the United States. They also appear to be on the increase. Some factors which may influence the success of boycotts are identified and discussed. Also discussed are ways in which consumer boycotts in the United States have changed and ways in which they have remained the same since the turn of the century. Of special interest here is the growing use of “surrogate boycotts” to deal with issues with origins outside of the marketplace.     

The Return of the Reciprocitarians — US Trade Policy Today

‘We are always willing to be trade partners, but never trade patsies’— President Ronald Reagan, State of the Union Message, Washington, 1987     

Prolonged Stagnation,Hesitant Recovery: Japan from an ‘Austrian’ Perspective

Tentative indications of recovery at the turn of the millennium offer the prospect of an end to the economic crisis that has afflicted the world's second largest economy since 1991. Both the duration of these difficulties and their insusceptability to conventional policy stimuli have presented challenges to mainstream macroeconomic thinking. It is argued here that the business cycle theory developed by Friedrich Hayek on the basis of the Austrian economic tradition, although eclipsed by the contemporary writings of Keynes, offers insight into the intractable nature of the Japanese crisis. This contrasting perspective stresses the links between monetary policy and the evolution of capital structure to provide an explanation for the inevitable dislocation following a credit‐financed boom. On these grounds, the application to Japan emphasises relaterd monetary and exchange rate developments in the 1980s as the underlying cause of the long stagnation of the 1990s. It therefore contradicts the view of the IMF and other multilateral bodies that the country's financial sector deficiencies were the primary factor. The structural focus of the analysis also suggests that the current (uncharacteristic) Fund emphasis on the need for demand stimulation is misplaced. Arguing that the surrounding economies have a particular interest in the means chosen to consolidate economic recovery in Japan, a policy approach consistent with the Austrain diagnosis is set out. It provides a framework in which fiscal consolidation and monetary policy normalisation, as desired by some elements of the country's administration, would be an appropriate strategy for the promotion of recovery.