亚洲转向：从防通胀到保增长

11月12日，中国国家主席胡锦涛在美国出席亚太经合组织工商领导人峰会并发表主旨演讲时指出，中国的发展是促进亚太地区和世界经济增长的重要力量，我们欢迎亚太工商界人士积极参与中国改革开放和现代化进程，共享中国经济发展带来的机遇和成果，共同创造亚太地区更加美好的未来。     

基于双陆桥经济带的江苏经济发展思路调整

随着世界经济增长中心正在向亚太地区转移,作为中国乃至亚太地区经济增长最快、经济动力最强、经济潜能最大的地区之一长江三角洲重要组成成员,江苏要借助双陆桥经济带的开发重新调整发展思路,抓住机遇抢先发展陆桥经济,增强其国内国际市场竞争力并实现区域经济共同发展。     

经济一体化背景下亚太地区经济合作的趋势分析

从目前来看，APEC作为亚太地区唯一的全区域经济合作组织，在一体化的进程中发展缓慢。通过亚太地区与欧盟一体化成功因素的对比，文章认为东亚地区有首先实现经济一体化的诸多有利条件。在东亚经济一体化的基础之上，东亚联合亚太区域内其它次区域政府合作，并通过不断改进和完善的APEC机制逐步实现亚太地区经济一体化。文章还分析了美、俄、日、中四个亚太地区大国在实现东亚和亚太地区经济一体化过程中的作用。     

APEC经济增长新战略探析

2009年以后增长战略成为APEC合作的重要议题。为了提高经济增长质量,继续发挥世界经济引擎的作用,APEC确定了平衡、包容、可持续、创新和安全增长的新经济增长战略并制订了行动计划。APEC增长战略蕴藏着机遇,同时也面临较大困难与挑战。     

Public Expenditure,Growth and Poverty Reduction in Rural Uganda

Abstract: Using district‐level data for 1992, 1995, and 1999, the study estimated effects of different types of government expenditure on agricultural growth and rural poverty in Uganda. The results reveal that government spending on agricultural research and extension improved agricultural production substantially. This type of expenditure had the largest measured returns to growth in agricultural production. Agricultural research and extension spending also had the largest assessed impact on poverty reduction. Government spending on rural roads also had a substantial marginal impact on rural poverty reduction. The impact of low‐grade roads such as feeder roads is larger than that of high‐grade roads such as murram and tarmac roads. Education's effects rank after agricultural research and extension, and roads. Government spending in health did not show a large impact on growth in agricultural productivity or a reduction in rural poverty. Additional investments in the northern region (a poor region) contribute the most to reducing poverty. However, it is the western region (a relatively well‐developed region) where most types of investment have highest returns in terms of increased agricultural productivity.     

Real exchange rate misalignment and business cycle fluctuations in the Asia-Pacific

Real exchange rate (RER) misalignment, which is the deviation between the actual real exchange rate from its equilibrium, occurs frequently among developing countries. Studies have shown that RER misalignment may have negative economic implications, such as a decline in economic growth, exports, and export diversification and an increased risk of currency crises and political instability. Using quarterly data for 22 sample countries from 1990 to 2018, this paper investigates the impact of RER misalignment on business cycles in the Asia-Pacific by employing a panel vector autoregression involving consumer price index (CPI) inflation, output gap, short-term interest rates, and RER misalignment. We find that RER overvaluation may reduce CPI inflation and short-term interest rates. We also find that the Asia-Pacific region is highly heterogeneous in that the output gaps of some countries, particularly from the Southeast Asian region, are more susceptible to RER misalignment shocks.     

The euro revolution and the European Union: monetary and economic cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region

A study of a coordinated monetary and economic policy for the Asia-Pacific region has long been debated. Institutionalization of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) occurred in 1989. In 1999 APEC membership had risen to 21 sovereign nation-state member economies. Annual meetings of finance ministers and heads of central banks of APEC member economies have been a regular feature, pointing to the fact that a supranational macroeconomic core, well-defined by monetary or fiscal policy guidelines alone could contribute to the success of APEC agenda of intraregional free trade, free flow of investment, and then free flow of human capital.Inauguration of the euro and European Central Bank on January 1, 1999, presents a learning model for economic regionalization in the Asia-Pacific. Hence, we propose to study the economic rationale of institutionalization of the Asia-Pacific Monetary Union with an optimal and transparent agenda for intraregional monetary policy coordination in terms of both supply of aggregate stock of money and determination of the intraregional core rate of interest, supplemented by intraregional fiscal policy coordination, which can and will provide the necessary and sufficient conditions for intraregional free market with free flow of trade, investment and human capital, contributing to the maximization of economic gains for all microeconomic actors—households as well as business corporations—belonging to all intraregional sovereign nation-state macroeconomies. This regional arrangement in the Asia-Pacific work within the framework of global institutions, thus optimally harmonizing regionalism with globalism. I have argued that the core of newly emerging economic regionalization relates to (1) a map-of-the-world view of the region, and (2) an intraregional, multilateral cooperative effort to map an economic region with well-specified micro- and macroeconomic parameters on to a specific geographic region.     

The Rise of China: Prospects of Regional Trade Policy

China now engages in multilateral trade liberalization as a new member of the WTO. Concurrently, the number of regional trade agreements is increasing worldwide. China and its trading partners would benefit from increased regional liberalization. Using a gravity equation for 23 Asia-Pacific countries between 1992 and 2000, we show that ASEAN and APEC currently have small effects on Asia-Pacific exports, which are mainly influenced by growth, trade barriers, and common language. However, we find that China’s participation in regional agreements has large export potentials, not only with respect to ASEAN, but also in a broad agreement including South and East Asian countries. JEL no. F15, F17     

从亚太经济发展格局审视环三都澳区域发展战略

中国积极参与亚太区域经济一体化进程,也为海峡西岸经济区建设带来了新机遇。本文从亚太视野,审视环三都澳区域经济发展面临的机遇和因应的对策思路。     

亚太地区油气地缘政治博弈分析及战略选择

文章通过分析亚太地区油权均势特征和油气地缘格局，权衡大国之间的抗衡与制约态势，全方位分析了博弈矛盾基内的中、日、美核心博弈以及与之相关的多极博弈态势。根据均势原则认为亚太地区地缘格局会在较长时期出现大国互相制约，小国在平衡中寻求利益最大化的平静时期。而面对美国及其盟国的多层次地缘政治封锁，中国应该“避风就势，联合抗衡”，保障油气安全及供应多元化。     

Agricultural development and the distribution of water resources in Kgatleng District,Botswana

During Botswana's four decades of high levels of growth the agricultural sector has lagged behind, with smallholder productivity being especially poor. This paper applies an equity perspective: its main claim is that one important explanation for the current lack of agricultural development is the unequal distribution of agricultural resources. It takes into account both the national institutional structure, which promotes widespread inequality, and the distribution of boreholes and water resources on the communal grazing range in Kgatleng District. It argues that ever since the first administrative effort to develop water resources in the 1920s the country's official policy and legislation has directly or indirectly favoured the large-scale farmers over the smallholders and, further, that customary property rights principles have supported the process that has led to today's institutional inequality.     

国外中小企业融资经验对我国的启示

经历上百年私有化进程,西方国家已形成了成熟的中小企业融资经验;上世纪50年代以来,亚太地区一些国家经济快速发展,也积累了丰富的中小企业发展经验。中小企业作为我国经济发展的主体,发展中面临诸多困难。因此,我们有必要借鉴国外的融资经验。     

世界发展中心转移与亚太发展中心的形成

世界发展中心具有生成、发展与衰落的生命周期,从而导致世界发展中心的转移。世界发展中心形成于古代亚洲,近代以来转移到欧洲和北美,目前出现向亚洲太平洋回归的新趋势,并形成其新特征。亚太发展中心能否形成将取决于亚太地区能否实现发展模式转型与发展机制的创新。     

亚太地区经济合作一体化模式探讨--从非机制化转向机制化研究

2008年的全球性金融危机和随后出现的经济衰退打断了20世纪90年代开始的第二波经济全球化的高潮,出现了逆全球化,甚至在某些区域出现了逆区域化的现象。这些现象大大提高了全球经济恢复和增长的不确定性。在亚太地区,美国总统特朗普上任后迅速退出跨太平洋合作伙伴关系协议(TPP),给该地区的经济合作带来冲击,逆全球化在亚太地区有蔓延的趋向。幸运的是,亚太地区"抱团取暖"的愿望非常迫切,激励了该地区区域经济合作一体化的进一步加强。在模式上,表现为由非机制化向机制化一体化升级。它将成为各国建立一个没有美国参加的国际贸易投资新秩序的新探索、新战略。     

COLONIALISM AND LONG‐RUN GROWTH IN AUSTRALIA: AN EXAMINATION OF INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE IN VICTORIA'S WATER SECTOR DURING THE NINETEENTH CENTURY

Institutional change in water rights in the nineteenth century Australian colony of Victoria raised institutional efficiency, which contributed to long‐run economic growth. High‐quality human capital and the extension of voting rights (franchise) were crucial for efficient institutional change in the water sector. Quality human capital (literacy) appeared to increase the rural population's awareness of the economic impact of the existing structure of water rights that may have constrained growth in the agricultural sector and reduced investment incentives. Extension of the franchise allowed the rural population to exert political pressure for enactment of change in water rights, which resulted in efficiency‐enhancing policies and efficient institutions. The findings show these two factors were more important than Victoria's British colonial heritage in determining whether growth‐enhancing institutional change took place.     

Access to Improved Water Sources and Rural Productivity: Analytical Framework and Cross‐country Evidence

Abstract: In this study we address the issue of access to drinking water in rural areas related to agricultural productivity performance. Considering an agricultural household model as our basic conceptual framework, we analyze the theoretical aspects of increasing the access rate to drinking water on agricultural productivity. First, we show that the increased access rate to drinking water is conducive to agricultural productivity due to increased intrinsic productivity of individuals and additional gain in time for agricultural production. Second, it transpires that the constraints on the access to drinking water may be costly in terms of decreased productivity and well‐being of rural people. Furthermore, based on a sample of 27 African countries over the period 1990–2010, estimation results do not reject the assumption that increasing access to drinking water has a positive effect on rural productivity growth. This positive effect is reinforced by the presence of a better sanitation system, even after controlling for country‐specific effects and for the characteristics of rural areas.     

水利基础设施建设与农业经济增长——基于新疆的实证分析

文章运用计量经济理论和方法,在对新疆水利基础设施建设与农业经济增长进行格兰杰因果检验的基础上,实证分析了新疆水利基础设施建设对农业经济增长和减缓贫困的贡献程度。结果表明：新疆水利基础设施建设和农业经济增长之间存在着双向因果关系,并对农业经济增长和减缓贫困均具有统计上的显著影响。     

论东亚区域合作中的美国因素和主导权问题

东亚区域合作是我国所在的亚太和东亚地区的两大机制(以APEC为代表的亚太合作机制和以东盟+3、东亚峰会为代表的东亚合作机制)之一。重视东亚区域合作是我国大周边战略的关键,但是,相对于亚太合作或亚太合作机制,东亚合作机制的建设难度更大,东亚一体化的目标更加遥不可及,主要难题是如何处理美国因素和解决主导权问题。     

农业科技资源投入结构现状及发展动态演变分析

以农业科研机构为研究对象,通过分析农业科技人力资源、农业科技财力资源在基础研究、应用研究和试验发展三个科技活动阶段不同分配情况下;在农学、林学、水产学、畜牧兽医学等不同学科领域间分配情况下所引起农业科技产出的可能变动情况,运用核密度估计函数系统测算2005-2015年不同科技活动阶段财力资源的动态演变。结果表明：农学在各学科领域内占有较为明显的主导地位,各阶段农业科技财力整体投入水平均大幅度提高,其中试验发展的涨幅最大,但区域差异明显,东部地区与中部地区增长较大,而东北地区与西部地区呈负增长态势;基础研究阶段整体呈现上涨趋势,东北地区对科技投入影响较大;应用研究阶段各地区以及全国范围整体差异呈现负增长。     

资源要素影响中国农业增长的实证分析

随着生产资料市场的变迁,促进农业增长的资源要素份额已悄然改变。本文采用面板数据超越对数生产函数,对中国农业增长与资源要素影响的关系进行实证分析。结果表明,资源要素影响农业产出增长呈现出一定的时空差异。全国的农业增长以劳动力驱动为主;技术进步短期内阻碍全国农业增长,长期内促进全国农业增长;能源加速消耗将阻碍全国农业长期的增长;资本集聚将促进中西部农业长期的增长。因此,优化生产资源要素的配置结构对农业可持续发展具有重要的意义。