AFDC Payments and Illegitimacy Ratios: A Reappraisal of Endogeneity Using Panel Data

This paper develops a rational choice model of the fertility of single women in the presence of government transfers. Evidence is presented which suggests that real AFDC (Aid to Families with Dependent Children) bene~ts leads to higher rates of illegitimacy. In fact, the unbiased parameter estimate which we present is six times larger than those estimates using OLS (Caudill and Mixon 1993). Also, the point elasticity estimate of real public benefit levels with respect to changes in the illegitimacy rate produced in this study is very robust, approximately +1.4. Our result, which encompasses all fertility of single women in the U.S., is quite encouraging because it falls within an elasticity range of +1.3 to +2.1 produced by a recent study (Clarke and Strauss 1998) for black and white teen fertility (for single women), respectively.     

The economic returns to schooling for Italian men. An evaluation based on instrumental variables

We study the relationship between (log) hourly earnings and schooling for male household heads in Italy, using cross-sectional data from the 1993 and 1995 waves of the Bank of Italy (BI) survey on the income and wealth of Italian households. In line with international evidence, we find that OLS under-estimate the return to schooling. When the endogeneity of schooling is taken into account, the return to an additional year in school increases from 4.8% to 5.6%. This estimate is lower than the estimates tabulated by Card [Card, D., 1994. Earnings, Schooling and Ability Revisited. NBER Working Paper no. 4832.] for the United States. We also find evidence that this return increases with higher levels of educational attainment.     

How Corporate Social Responsibility Engagement Strategy Moderates the CSR–Financial Performance Relationship

We propose that firm profits are shaped by how firms engage in corporate social responsibility. Recent research on the corporate social responsibility (CSR)–corporate financial performance (CFP) relationship proposes a variety of contextual and organizational factors to create a more robust link. However, few of these studies explore the role of the CSR engagement strategy. Drawing on absorptive capacity theory and related perspectives such as time compression diseconomies, asset mass efficiencies, and path dependence theory, we argue that when a firm engages in CSR slowly and consistently, focuses on related CSR dimensions, and starts with internal dimensions of CSR, CFP will be enhanced. With longitudinal data collected from 130 firms from 1995 to 2007, we find that firms benefit more when they adopt a CSR engagement strategy that is consistent, involves related dimensions of CSR, and begins with aspects of CSR that are more internal to the firm. The pace of the CSR engagement strategy, however, does not moderate the CSR–CFP relationship. This study helps fill the gap in CSR research by showing that, regardless of contextual factors, a firm can choose the proper strategy to enhance the financial benefits of the CSR engagement.     

Volatility analysis of precious metals returns and oil returns: An ICSS approach

This study examines volatility persistence on precious metals returns taking into account oil returns and the three world major stock equity indices (Dow Jones Industrial, FTSE 100, and Nikkei 225) using daily data over the sample period January 1995 to May 2008; the aim is to analyze market relationships before the global financial crisis. We first determine when large changes in the volatility of each market returns occur by identifying major global events that would increase fluctuations in these markets. The Iterated Cumulative Sums of Squares (ICSS) algorithm was used to identify the existence of structural breaks or sudden changes in the variance of returns. In each market the standardized residuals were obtained through the GARCH(1,1) mean equation. Our main results identify a clear relationship between precious metals returns and oil returns, while the interaction between precious metals and stock returns seems to be an independent one in the case of gold with mixed results for silver and platinum. In relation to volatility persistence, the results show clear evidence of high volatility persistence between these markets, especially during times when markets were affected by excessive volatility due to economic and financial shocks.     

Replicating Text: The Cumulation of Knowledge in Social Science

Obtaining a statistically significant result does not necessarily tell us whether we would obtain significant results in other, similar studies, particularly if the original sample sizes were small. This is why we are supposed to replicate experiments. The present study concerns social science events that cannot be repeated by virtue of their being historically situated. Among social science events, many textual data are datable and, by definition, unrepeatable. One solution to this quandary lies in bootstrap replications, which are based on the original data. A case in point is that of founding political speeches such as those that buoy the European construction. We analyze and compare 82 speeches made by President Delors over the period 1988–1994, and 28 by President Santer over the period 1995–1997. We have all these speeches (N = 110) concorded as to which words are used, how often, where, and when, with the help of a computer-aided content analysis package. We then test various hypotheses using replication bootstrap estimates, that is, by replicating the original sample a large number of times and recreating several thousand samples from the population so created.     

Child Poverty and Welfare Benefits: A Reassessment with State Data of the Claim That American Welfare Breeds Dependence

Abstract . Several critics of the American welfare system have claimed that it exacerbates the problem of poverty by making living in poverty preferable to acting in ways that would promote upward mobility. One version of this argument, by Gallaway and Vedder, proposes that in the 1970s this resulted in states with high welfare benefit exhibiting increases in child poverty. State data for 1970, 1980, and 1970-1980 are analyzed by means of multiple regression to assess this argument. The results suggest that the relationships between high welfare benefits, child poverty, and recipiency of Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) are much less clear-cut than has been alleged. They also cast doubt on the wisdom of using aggregate data to analyze these relationships.     

The effects of technical and social conditions on workplace trust

This paper investigates the extent to which the technical and social contexts of organizations independently affect levels of workplace trust. We argue that, in an organizational context, trust is not just a relationship between an individual subject (the truster) and an object (the trustee) but is subject to effects from the conditions of the work relationship itself. We describe the organizational context as comprising both a technical system of production (where work gets done through the specification of tasks) and a social system of work (where problems of effort, compliance, conformity and motivation are managed). We analyse the relationship between trust and these two aspects of workplace context (technical and social systems). We also operationalize this in terms of differences between industries, occupational composition and human resource management practices. The model is tested using data drawn from the 1995 Australian Workplace Industrial Relations Survey. The results confirm that differences in industry, occupational composition and HRM practices all impact on levels of workplace trust. We review these results in terms of their implications for future research into the problem of analysing variation in trust at both the workplace and individual levels.     

Do Reservation Native Americans Vote with Their Feet? A Re‐examination of Native American Migration, 1985–1990

Native Americans suffer some of the highest rates of poverty and unemployment and the lowest rates of human capital attainment among racial minority groups in the United States, but economists understand very little about the impact these conditions have on the migration patterns of Native Americans. In 1994, a seminal article on this topic appeared in this journal (Cebula and Belton 1994). In their article, the authors suggest that the low levels of human capital and poor conditions in Native American reservations should make Native American migration sensitive to interstate differences in AFDC spending levels. Their hypothesis is confirmed for Native American migration over the 1985–1990 period. This paper refines their analysis by using micro-level rather than aggregate data, and by controlling for reservation residence and the impact of informal social safety nets in the source region. It is found that human capital factors and expected wage differences overwhelm interstate differences in public welfare spending and that informal safety nets in the source region dampen off-reservation migration. These findings suggest that state AFDC spending levels cannot explain contemporary Native American migration patterns.     

Implicit human resource management theory: a potential threat to the internal validity of human resource practice measures

Since the publication of Huselid's (1995) paper examining the relationship between HR practices and firm performance, there has been an explosion of published papers examining the empirical relationship between HR practices and various measures of firm performance. This study examines the possibility that informants typically providing data about organizational HR practices may be biased by an implicit theory of human resource management. Our findings suggest the responses from subjects typically providing data about HR practices may be biased in their reporting by the performance of the organization. The generalizability of these results is considered and implications for future studies of the HR-firm performance relationship reviewed.     

标准促进创新成果产业化的实证研究——以高技术产业为例

在经济全球化和贸易自由化的背景下,创新创造竞争优势,标准巩固竞争优势,标准是创新成果产业化的一个重要支撑。本文利用1995～2007年中国高技术产业的面板数据,对标准与创新成果产业化关系进行了实证研究。实证结果表明,标准是一个重要的创新成果产业化促进因素。     

Bank systemic risk and CEO overconfidence

This study examines the relationship between CEO overconfidence and banking systemic risk. We employ the CoVaR (Conditional Value-at-Risk) approach to measure a bank's contribution to systemic risk and compute its MES (Marginal Expected Shortfall) and SRISK (Systemic Risk index) to measure the exposure to banking systemic risk. We use a stock options based measure for CEO overconfidence and explore how managerial overconfidence could be associated with banking systemic risk. Using data for U.S. banks from 1995–2014, we find evidence that banks with overconfident CEOs have a higher contribution and exposure to systemic risk than banks with non-overconfident CEOs. We also show that the impact of CEO overconfidence contributed significantly more to systemic risk during the financial crisis of 2008–2009.     

Public Choice and the EPA, 20 Years Later: An Exploratory Study

Nearly 20 years ago, Mixon (1995) found that urban warming is positively related to the probability of an EPA citation for a violation of carbon emissions standards, whereas lobbying effort reduces the probability of such a citation. This study revisits the Mixon (1995) framework by using data on ozone violations. The results indicate that EPA citations for ozone violations are not significantly related to lobbying effort.     

Organizational diversity programs across cultures: effects on absenteeism,turnover, performance and innovation

This study examined data from over 5000 organizations in 22 countries to address three complementary issues: (1) the influence of national culture on the adoption of diversity programs aimed at recruiting, training and promoting individuals from specific target groups; (2) the moderating effect of national cultural practices on the relationship between these diversity programs and the organizational outcomes of absenteeism and turnover; and (3) the mediating effect of absenteeism and turnover on the relationship between diversity programs and organizational performance and innovation. National cultural values and practices were taken from the GLOBE study and assigned respectively to the organizations in our sample. A multilevel path analysis supported the hypothesized effects of national cultural values on organizational diversity programs. Moreover, cultural practices were found to moderate the relationship between diversity programs and absenteeism and turnover. Our hypotheses on the role of absenteeism and turnover as mediators of the relationship between diversity programs and organizational performance and innovation were also supported. Our findings may help guide managers' decisions on the adoption of diversity programs in units operating in different national cultures. We discuss the implications of our findings for scholars and practitioners concerned with diversity management issues in a global context.     

Accounting for derivatives: An evaluation of reporting practice by UK banks

In 1995, the Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants (CICA) changed its Generally Accepted Accounting Principles on accounting for joint ventures from permitting a choice between the equity method (EM) and proportionate consolidation (PC) to requiring only PC. More recently, the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) has decided to issue a new standard that will eliminate choice between EM and PC and require only EM; but as of October 2010 a new standard was still to be issued. The past Canadian and proposed IASB changes are similar in that choice between the same two reporting methods is removed but differ in the required alternative, PC for Canada and EM for the IASB. In this paper we use a sample of Canadian companies over the period 1985–2003 to study financial reporting for joint ventures. To our knowledge, our Canadian sample is the only one reflecting a reduction of choice in financial reporting methods for joint ventures. Therefore, our results have particular relevance for evaluating the IASB's proposed change. Specifically, we investigate whether firms that use EM between 1985 and 1994 experience a decline in value relevance of key balance sheet amounts such as total assets and liabilities when forced to use PC from 1995 onwards. Since 1995 firms are also required to provide footnote disclosures on their share of joint venture assets and liabilities in addition to revenues, expenses and cash flows. Using these disclosures, we investigate whether disaggregate joint venture assets and liabilities are incrementally and overall value relevant. We find that firms that are forced to switch from EM to PC experience a decline in value relevance of reported assets and liabilities. The firms that use PC for the entire sample period experience no such decline. We also find that joint venture assets and liabilities are incrementally and overall value relevant when disclosures are mandatory from 1995 onwards. Our results show that the removal of choice of financial reporting method does have value-relevance implications, something that is of importance to users. We also find that the requirement of additional disclosure of joint venture assets and liabilities is value relevant, which may offset, to some extent, the costs of the reduction in choice. Our inferences may have implications for a number of jurisdictions across Europe and beyond that are affected by a similar reduction of accounting choice proposed by the IASB.     

中国劳务输出对进出口贸易影响的实证分析

本文采用修正的贸易引力模型,应用中国与175个国家(地区)1995~2004年的面板数据,就中国劳务输出对进出口贸易的影响进行实证分析。对样本总体的回归结果表明,我国对外劳务输出与出口之间存在互补关系,劳务输出能够带动出口增加;而劳务输出对进口没有明显影响,二者之间呈现不显著的替代关系。对样本国家(地区)按区域和收入分组的回归结果与对样本总体的回归结果基本一致:我国对大多数国家(地区)的劳务输出与出口之间存在正相关关系,特别是外派劳务最为集中的东亚和南亚,劳务输出对出口有着明显的拉动作用;在进口方面,除拉美和加勒比海国家外,对其余各组国家(地区)的劳务输出与进口之间均为负相关关系,而这种关系通常不显著。     

Contract duration and contractual learning: Evidence from franchising networks

Contract duration in franchising has generally been studied in frameworks where agents are assumed to have a high level of foresight. We complement existing studies by adopting a dynamic perspective that allows us to introduce a learning process in choice and adjustment of contract duration. On the basis of French panel data (1995–2003), collected from the yearbooks of the French Federation of Franchising, results of dynamic models are consistent with the existence of a learning process in the capacity to design appropriate contracts. Our study shows that certain factors, in particular too much franchising, may hinder the achievement of such a capability.     

Bayesian analysis of random coefficient logit models using aggregate data

We present a Bayesian approach for analyzing aggregate level sales data in a market with differentiated products. We consider the aggregate share model proposed by Berry et al. [Berry, Steven, Levinsohn, James, Pakes, Ariel, 1995. Automobile prices in market equilibrium. Econometrica. 63 (4), 841–890], which introduces a common demand shock into an aggregated random coefficient logit model. A full likelihood approach is possible with a specification of the distribution of the common demand shock. We introduce a reparameterization of the covariance matrix to improve the performance of the random walk Metropolis for covariance parameters. We illustrate the usefulness of our approach with both actual and simulated data. Sampling experiments show that our approach performs well relative to the GMM estimator even in the presence of a mis-specified shock distribution. We view our approach as useful for those who are willing to trade off one additional distributional assumption for increased efficiency in estimation.     

The finite-sample effects of VAR dimensions on OLS bias,OLS variance,and minimum MSE estimators

Vector autoregressions (VARs) are important tools in time series analysis. However, relatively little is known about the finite-sample behaviour of parameter estimators. We address this issue, by investigating ordinary least squares (OLS) estimators given a data generating process that is a purely nonstationary first-order VAR. Specifically, we use Monte Carlo simulation and numerical optimisation to derive response surfaces for OLS bias and variance, in terms of VAR dimensions, given correct specification and several types of over-parameterisation of the model: we include a constant, and a constant and trend, and introduce excess lags. We then examine the correction factors that are required for the least squares estimator to attain the minimum mean squared error (MSE). Our results improve and extend one of the main finite-sample multivariate analytical bias results of Abadir, Hadri and Tzavalis [Abadir, K.M., Hadri, K., Tzavalis, E., 1999. The influence of VAR dimensions on estimator biases. Econometrica 67, 163–181], generalise the univariate variance and MSE findings of Abadir [Abadir, K.M., 1995. Unbiased estimation as a solution to testing for random walks. Economics Letters 47, 263–268] to the multivariate setting, and complement various asymptotic studies.     

State Lotteries, Isolation and Economic Growth in the U.S.

This paper uses a Granger causality test adapted for use with cross-section time series data, to (1) test the relationship between lottery revenue and state economic growth (per capita income), and (2) address the importance of cross-border purchases in the relationship. Neither issue has been empirically tested previously. Previous evidence (Caudill, et al., 1995) suggests that states surrounded by lotteries are more likely than isolated states to introduce lotteries. But the empirical results here suggest that lotteries do not contribute to economic growth unless the state is isolated from other state lotteries. The importance of isolation suggests that cross-border purchases (exports) of lottery tickets have a significant impact on the effectiveness of lotteries as fiscal policies, and that "defensive" lotteries (those introduced to keep citizens from buying tickets from neighboring states) are ineffective.     

Estimation of nonlinear models with mismeasured regressors using marginal information

We consider the estimation of nonlinear models with mismeasured explanatory variables, when information on the marginal distribution of the true values of these variables is available. We derive a semi‐parametric MLE that is shown to be $\sqrt{n}$ consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. In a simulation experiment we find that the finite sample distribution of the estimator is close to the asymptotic approximation. The semi‐parametric MLE is applied to a duration model for AFDC welfare spells with misreported welfare benefits. The marginal distribution of the correctly measured welfare benefits is obtained from an administrative source. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.