PPG的陨落与VANCL的崛起

2007年3月底,国内的投资圈和互联网圈都在打听一家名为“PPG”的神秘公司。仅凭呼叫中心和互联网,这家公司每天能卖掉1万件左右男式衬衫,而同期市场占有率第一的雅戈尔的数字是1．3万件．但是需要说明的是雅戈尔拥有零售网点1500多个     

The Rise and Fall of Maya Civilization

Abstract . ‘Savages,’ as Europeans considered the Americans of ancient times, never built the great Mayan centers. The builders of great cities in Meso-America were a well-organized group with an adequate land base and a rather sophisticated technology. From 300 B.C. to 900 A.D. the Maya developed and perfected an agriculture-based economy with a well developed commerce, writing, art, science, religion and government, as well as an advanced architecture of monuments, palaces, temples and pyramids. Their civilization reached intellectual heights unique in the Western Hemisphere. What conditions caused its decline and fall? Interpreting the geographic and historical record in the light of the relevant social sciences, one can say a complex of circumstances: ecological abuse, exploitation of the working population, mismanagement, militarism, bad weather, famines, and epidemics.     

Do Wages Rise or Fall Following Merger?*

This paper provides a systematic empirical analysis of the effects of merger and acquisition activity on profitability and firm‐level employee remuneration in the UK, using a specially constructed database for the period 1979–91. It finds that both profitability and wages rise following acquisition, and firms that merge within the same industry division experience larger increases in profitability and pay their workers higher wages than those engaged in unrelated acquisitions; i.e. in part, the result of an increase in the efficiency with which labour is used following related acquisition.     

The Rise and Fall of the South African Industrial Colour Bar

Why was the South African government forced to negotiate with the AN C? John Gardner argues that the apartheid system was in the process of being destroyed by the pace of capitalist economic growth.     

The Rise and Fall of Slacks: Comments on Quasi-Malmquist Productivity Indices

Journal of Productivity Analysis - The Malmquist productivity index has been based on ratios of radial Farrell efficiency scores. Calculating these relative to piecewise linear production frontiers...     

The Rise and Fall of Autonomous Group Working in the British Coal Mining Industry

The group organization of work in the British coal mining industry brought to the workers involved significant levels of autonomy; the ability to define the social relations of work; high levels of control over the labor process; and a strong and lasting commitment - to the group. This autonomy was to survive a series of managerial attacks, in the form of changed payment systems and the introduction of new technologies, and was not finally lost until the imposition of full automation that included surveillance systems that made the labor process transparent.     

人民币实际有效汇率的分解和马歇尔—勒纳条件的修正

马歇尔-勒纳条件是探讨货币贬值改善贸易收支的规律,本文根据人民币实际有效汇率的特点,把它分解为美元有效汇率和人民币对美元汇率之积形式,在此基础之上,本文重新考察货币贬值改善贸易收支的条件,对传统的马歇尔-勒纳条件进行修正。从我们研究中可以看出美元实际有效汇率变化对马歇尔-勒纳条件修正的重要作用,这包括美元有效汇率对人民币汇率弹性和人民币在美元有效汇率中的权重的两种影响。另一方面,即使人民币实际有效汇率贬值存在“J”曲线效应,人民币对美元实际汇率贬值,“J”曲线是否存在还要依赖一定的条件。本文实证研究结果显示出口（或进口）与人民币对美元实际汇率、美元实际有效汇率指数和外国收入（或国内收入）之间存在着显著的协整关系,美元实际有效汇率和人民币对美元实际汇率也存在显著的协整关系。从弹性的变化来看,修正的马歇尔-勒纳条件成立,同时人民币对美元实际汇率贬值有利于改善贸易收支,美元实际有效汇率贬值会恶化中国贸易收支。而对“J”曲线效应的实证研究显示无论是人民币实际有效汇率,还是人民币对美元实际汇率贬值和美元实际有效汇率贬值,我国“J”曲线效应均不显著。     

Nonlinear dynamics of gold and the dollar

Notwithstanding the widely held view that gold and the dollar are negatively correlated, we ask when and why gold and the dollar sometimes depart from their typical inverse relationship and go so far as to move in parallel. Using a threshold vector error correction model (VECM), we investigate the nonlinear relationship between gold and the dollar. We find evidence of short run positive correlation between gold and the dollar under extreme market conditions. Our result suggests that the hedging property of gold is influenced by the gold-dollar threshold process.     

A long dollar fall: likelihood and consequences

• ? The dollar has tended to move in long swings over the last forty years, raising the risk that the recent decline could extend considerably further. This is not our base case, but risks do look skewed towards additional dollar weakness. Our modelling work suggests that a large further dollar slide would have significant effects on the pattern of world growth – the US and some emerging markets would gain, with other advanced economies the main losers.
• ? There have been several large multi‐year swings in the dollar over the last four decades. We identify seven such episodes since 1971 including three long declines averaging 31%, the last being in 2002‐08. Since 2017 the dollar has fallen 10%, implying a possible further considerable drop.
• ? Our dollar strength indicator, which covers a range of economic variables associated with dollar moves in the past, does not currently point to a re‐run of the dollar weakness of the 2000s. But we do expect some further near‐term dollar losses and risks to our baseline forecast look skewed to the downside, especially given the emergence of large twin deficits in the US.
• ? Should a further large dollar slump nevertheless occur, our modelling suggests large effects on the pattern of world growth. The main gainers would be commodity‐producing emerging markets (EM) benefitting from improved terms of trade, positive balance sheet and external liquidity effects and scope to ease local interest rates. Rising US yields would erode some of these gains in later years.
• ? The main initial losers would be advanced economies outside the US which would lose competitiveness. In the case of the Eurozone and Japan, undershoots of inflation targets would be likely. There could also be some other negative consequences such as stoking protectionism and creating financial bubbles in some EMs.

     

人民币汇率变动研究——基于人民币对美元和非美元货币汇率的分析

目前随着美元币值的变化,人民币对美元小幅贬值或升值,但人民币对非美元货币的贬值或升值则往往相反,这种变化使得我们对人民币币值的变化难以把握.本文研究人民币对美元和非美元汇率变动,并在此基础上研究人民币有效汇率指数变化;根据人民币有效汇率指数,构建人民币核心汇率指数并分析其变动及意义.本文认为,人民币汇率目标主要侧重于人民币对美元汇率,而人民币对非美元货币汇率波动有更大的弹性,因此,如果央行以人民币有效汇率为目标,则能够确定每天人民币对美元汇率的中间价,真正建立人民币参考一篮子货币的汇率目标.     

Causality and volatility patterns between gold prices and exchange rates

This paper provides a new perspective on the link between gold prices and exchange rates. Based on gold prices denominated in five different currencies and the related bilateral exchange rates, we put causalities and short-run volatility transmission under closer scrutiny. We provide evidence that the identification of a strong hedge function of gold requires an explicit modeling of the volatility component. For all currencies, exchange rate depreciations initially have a negative impact on the gold price after one day which turns out to be positive after two days in most of the cases. Contrary to previous studies, our results point to a specific role of the dollar in the context of gold-exchange rate relationships: volatility of dollar exchange rates more frequently results in strong hedging functions of gold prices. Furthermore, the gold price denominated in the US dollar tends to increase after a depreciation of the dollar.     

Dynamics of floating exchange rate: how important are capital flows relative to macroeconomic fundamentals?

While focusing on traditional macroeconomic fundamentals, existing literature has provided little understanding of impacts of various types of capital flows on the dynamics of floating exchange rates. This paper develops a structural VAR model that takes into account macroeconomic fundamentals as well as various types of capital flows in explaining the fluctuations of the floating exchange rates of the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar, and the U.S. dollar over 1980–2004. Our main findings are as follows. Among the traditional macroeconomic fundamentals, relative interest rate still plays a significant role in explaining exchange rate dynamics for all three currencies. Capital flows play an important role in explaining the fluctuations in the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar, but not the U.S. dollar. In particular, portfolio investment is the most explanatory factor for the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar. For the U.S. dollar, relative interest rate explains the most of exchange rate fluctuations, especially in the medium to the long run. The results indicate that capital market transactions do play important roles in determining exchange rates; however, it may have different implications for the reserve currencies versus the non-reserve currencies. Further research is needed.     

一种测量电动栏杆机起落时间的测试装置及方法

测试装置采用延时时间继电器模块在发出栏杆机抬杆信号(即计时开始信号)之后为激光漫反射光电开关延时供电,避免栏杆臂抬起时产生的光电信号干扰计时器计时,将激光漫反射光电开关的感应信号作为栏杆机起落时间计时的中止信号。测试结果表明,测试装置测量电动栏杆机起落时间的精密度明显优于国家标准中所规定的人工手动秒表测量方法。     

The effects of dollar appreciation on sectoral labor market adjustments: Theory and evidence

We examine the extent to which exchange rate fluctuations affect sectoral employment and wages in the United States. We introduce a theoretical rational expectation model that decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components. The model demonstrates the effects of demand and supply channels on the response of the nominal wage and labor employment to changes in the exchange rate. The evidence indicates that the deflationary effect dominates on industrial nominal wage in manufacturing and transportation industries in the face of dollar appreciation. More importantly, there is evidence of a decrease in employment growth in several industries in response to dollar appreciation, which is statistically significant in construction and at the aggregate level. This evidence is consistent with a decrease in labor demand given the loss of competitiveness of U.S. products following dollar appreciation. There are negative effects of dollar appreciation on labor market conditions in the United States. Nonetheless, dollar appreciation is consistent with an increase in employment growth in the mining sector where the share of imports is the largest among U.S. industries.     

WINNERS AND LOSERS FROM DOLLAR DEPRECIATION

We examine the relationship between the US current account deficit, the international value of the dollar, and the dollar reserves of foreign central banks. The declining dollar could benefit US savers at the expense of foreign investors in the USA.     

U.S. interest rates and the exchange value of the dollar: A test of causality

This study examines the causal relationship between interset rates and the exchange value of the dollar using Granger causality tests. Cointegration tests show that error correction models are not necessary in this case. The results suggest that the combination of short- and long-term U.S. interest rates, in nominal or real terms, Granger cause the exchange value of the dollar, and that the difference between nominal domestic and foreign rates does not Granger cause the exchange value of the dollar. This result supports the proposition that budget deficits contribute to trade deficits.     

Child Exemptions or Child Allowances

A bstract Eliminating Child exempitons and replacing them with a European style child allowance program would be an effective and costless antipoverty policy The distributional and poverty reducing effects of three potentral child allowance programs are examined These include a fixed dollar tax credit a dollar tax credit a tax credit that declines with income, and a taxable allowance of the some dollar amount for each child     

The asymmetric effects of U.S. large-scale asset purchases on the volatility of the Canadian dollar futures market

This paper investigates the asymmetric effects of U.S. large-scale asset purchases on the volatility of the Canadian dollar futures market. This approach is innovative in so far as it examines the effects of allowing two-round impacts to differ in our settings of dynamic volatility with time-varying jump intensity because the world economic situation differs during periods of large-scale asset purchases. Utilizing the daily futures price of the exchange rate for the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar, the empirical findings show that U.S. large-scale asset purchases have significant asymmetric effects on the volatility of the Canadian dollar futures market. Two kinds of asymmetry are observed. Firstly, the impact of large-scale asset purchases is smaller in the first round of the large-scale asset purchases than in the second round. Secondly, an expansionary policy causes higher volatility in the Canadian dollar futures market than does a contractionary policy due to a signal of high liquidity.