China＇s Sustained Economic Growth： Do Direct R＆D Spillovers Matter？

Using data from 1986-2005, the present paper estimates the impact of direct knowledge spilled over from G-7 countries on China＇s economy. We use telephone line penetration rates andpersonnel flows to estimate the direct spillover effect. Our results show that direct knowledge spillovers through telecommunication networks and personnelflows are important components of international R＆D spillovers in China. These direct channels of spillover effectively accelerate China＇s economic growth. Therefore, China should invest more in human capital and in its telecommunication network to enhance the absorptive capacity of direct R＆D spillovers, and to increase communication with other nations, in particular the USA and Japan. More subsidies to domestic R＆D research and purchase of intermediate goods will help to raise China＇s R＆D intensity.     

利率水平、股票指数与资本的国际流动——理论模型与实证检验

传统的蒙代尔-弗莱明模型是以利率作为影响资本在国与国之间流动的主要因素甚至唯一因素为假定前提的,但这一假定具有越来越明显的局限性。在现代经济社会,金融资产的价格波动很多情况下成为影响资本国际流动的最主要因素。证券市场和房地产市场的价格走势又往往是与利率反方向变动的。本文据此论证了负斜率的BP曲线,从而拓展和丰富了蒙代尔-弗莱明模型的形态。然后以两组共计28个国家或地区的经济数据对其进行了实证检验。     

Global commodity prices and global stock market volatility shocks: Effects across countries

We investigate the time-varying dynamics of global stock market volatility, commodity prices, domestic output and consumer prices. We find (i) stock market volatility and commodity price shocks impact each other and the economy in a gradual and endogenous adjustment process, (ii) impact of commodity price shock on global stock market volatility is significant during global financial crises, (iii) effects of global stock market volatility on the US output are amplified by endogenous commodity price responses, (iv) effects of global stock market volatility shocks on the economy are heterogeneous across nations and relatively larger in twelve developed countries, (v) four developing/small economies are more vulnerable to commodity price shocks.     

Implications of the effective revaluation of reserve asset gold: The case for a gold account for development

International agreement was reached in the early 1970s that the future creation of international reserves would be largely via SDR allocations, to be distributed to individual countries in proportion to their quotas in the IMF. In this manner, the international monetary system would play a ‘neutral’ role in the creation and distribution of international reserves. It has become increasingly apparent in recent years, however, that the international monetary system has been far from neutral in its distribution of international liquidity. The de facto revaluation of reserve asset gold has led to a massive creation of international reserves — nearly $500 billion by the end of 1979 — which has served to benefit almost exclusively the major gold-holding countries, all among the wealthiest of the industrialized nations.Unlike the major gold-holding countries, which throughout the Bretton Woods era converted two-thirds of their foreign exchange holdings into gold, the large majority of developing countries acted on the basis of the United States pledge that the dollar was ‘as good as gold’. As a result, the quantitative analysis presented in this paper shows that developing countries have foregone reserve holdings in excess of $100 billion. To partially redress the inequitable distribution of international reserves which has arisen from the de facto revaluation of reserve asset gold — and at the same time to promote a significant transfer of resources to developing countries — this paper proposes the establishment of a ‘Gold Account for Development’ based on official gold holdings, outlines the various forms which such an account might take, and discusses the political acceptability of the proposals.     

扩大对发展中国家直接投资的可行性分析

中国经济近年来强劲增长,但也受到资源、市场等瓶颈的约束,因此我国政府实施了“走出去”战略,鼓励企业进行对外直接投资。我国是发展中大国,相对于其他发展中国家具有一定的比较优势,扩大对发展中国家的投资具有可行性。     

美国经济波动对中国经济增长的影响及其传导机制研究

在开放经济条件下,一国的经济波动会通过国际贸易、国际投资等资本的跨国流动传导到别的国家。鉴于美国已经成为中国主要的贸易伙伴和FDI来源国,其经济的波动会对中国的经济产生很大的影响,因此本文运用基于VAR模型的广义脉冲响应函数法与方差分解法,在以双边贸易与投资为传导纽带,暗含汇率变化影响的基础上定量分析了美国经济波动对中国经济冲击的长期传导机制和短期动态影响特征。冲击响应分析结果表明,美国经济对中国经济的影响更大,美国经济的波动主要通过影响中国对美国出口的途径对中国经济增长造成冲击;方差分解结果显示,中国经济对美国经济的贡献更大。     

A Multi-Scale System of Macroeconometric Models: the Inforum Approach

The recent global crisis affected output, but the decline in international trade was even sharper, almost twice as big, so that in the literature it is referred as the Great Trade Collapse. Trade flows have transmitted the crisis through the world economy where international trade runs through much more intricate networks than in the past, involving a greater number of countries, firms, and products. All these relevant economic issues require a clear understanding of the possible positive and negative effects not only on the economy as a whole and on aggregate macroeconomic variables but especially on specific industries and commodities. This type of quantitative analysis can be pursued with several analytical tools and data. Macroeconometric models have a long-standing and remarkable tradition as a tool for analyzing the international transmission mechanism of shocks and policies and for forecasting their effects. In this paper, we present the INFORUM international linking system of models that includes a Bilateral Trade Model (BTM) and a set of multisectoral country models. The INFORUM international system of models is characterised by a detailed industry and commodity classification and the use of econometric equations for estimating the behaviour of economic variables and of bilateral import shares. Moreover, when the complete international system of models is linked through the bilateral trade model, simulation results include feedback effects from country models to all economies in the system through bilateral trade flows. Overall, this multi-scale system of models captures the heterogeneity across industries and countries and produces significant information for economic policy design.     

Do exchange rate arrangements and capital controls influence international capital flows and housing prices in Asia?

This paper investigates the influence of international capital flows on housing prices in eight Asian countries, including China. We focus on determining whether exchange rate arrangements and capital regulations influence capital inflows and housing prices. Our results show that an arrangement to restrain the fluctuation of the exchange rate and capital controls has the potential to raise housing prices in Asia. The strong prospect of the Chinese yuan's appreciation also pushed up housing prices in China. Another expected reason for the increase in capital inflows into Asian markets is the expansion of global liquidity. Such capital flows often have a sensitive reaction to market sentiment, and an increase in asset market volatility caused by the liquidity squeeze decreases Asian housing prices. These results suggest the need to review capital controls and future exchange rate system options for Asian countries.     

Debt and development: The role of foreign capital in economic growth

Capital flows, whether between individuals or nations, are dominated by a two- fold paradox. Borrowers are initially primarily interested in obtaining sufficient funds for their needs, but once they have obtained a loan, their indebtedness becomes their principal concern. While a loan is being negotiated the lenders usually have the upper hand, but once it is made, they become dependent on the borrowers for repayment with interest. Their power to withhold future loans becomes their only real measure of control. Borrowing and lending has costs and benefits, and these balance out only in exceptional cases for both the borrowing and lending countries and the principal social groups within them. The debate about the impact of international capital flows accordingly has a long history. This paper begins with a historical perspective, and then reviews the principal characteristics of capital flows to developing countries since the 1950s. A discussion of the impact of capital flows on development, with a particular emphasis on trends in developing country indebtedness, follows. A brief examination of borrowing and debt management issues for borrowers, lenders and the international community concludes the paper.     

国际资本流动的新特征及其影响

随着经济全球化的进一步发展,全球金融市场一体化日益深化,国际资本流动不仅日趋活跃,而且具有了新的特征,国际资本流动的变化对世界经济运行也正在产生正面与负面的影响。国际资本流动的新变化要求各国对于国际资本应该趋利避害,做出及时和合适的应对。     

The global economic consequences of the Uruguay Round

This paper examines the provisions of the recently completed Uruguay Round and evaluates the qualitative and quantitative effects of the Round on major countries and regions of the world. The implications of the Uruguay Round are measured using the G-cubed multicountry model. This model captures macroeconomic and sectoral linkages within the global economy. This study differs from other studies in that it considers the dynamic adjustment path, the impact of expectations formation, and the sectoral as well as macroeconomic consequences of the Round. The results are compared with other studies of the Uruguay Round. Ignoring major changes in productivity induced by the Round, it is found that the gains to the world economy are likely to be around $200 billion (1990) per year by the year 2000. The distribution of the gains across regions from the Round differ from other studies because of the adjustment of international capital flows. Private capital flows to regions that undertake the most extensive liberalization initially worsen their trade positions. In regions that liberalize less and experience a capital outflow, the production gains tends to be less than conventional studies find. The adjustment of private capital has important implications for exchange rates, and therefore for the adjustment of the international trading system over the decade of the implementation of the Round.     

Changing nature of North–South linkages: Stylized facts and explanations

This paper examines the changing nature of growth spillovers between developed economies, the North, and developing countries, the South, driven by the process of globalization—the phenomenon of rising international trade and financial flows. We use a comprehensive database of macroeconomic and sectoral variables for 106 countries over the period 1960–2005. We consider the South to be composed of two groups of countries, the Emerging South and the Developing South, based on the extent of their integration into the global economy. Using a panel regression framework, we find that the impact of the Northern economic activity on the Emerging South has declined during the globalization period (1986–2005). In contrast, the growth linkages between the North and Developing South have been rather stable over time. Our findings also suggest that the North and Emerging South economies have started to exhibit more intensive intra-group growth spillovers.     

Remittances from international migration: A review in perspective

Remittances—the portion of international migrant workers' earnings sent back from the country of employment to the country of origin—have come to play a central role in the economies of labor-sending countries. Recent research has tended to focus on enumerating the costs and benefits of remittances. This paper proposes an alternative perspective and delineates the “Remittances System” as a heuristic to clarify intermediate relationships between determinants and effects of remittances. Using the heuristic as a framework for review of recent literature concerning remittances, the paper identifies gaps in currently available research and argues for greater focus upon the social and political consequences of remittance flows.     

Were capital flows the culprit in the Weimar economic crisis?

This paper examines the role of capital flows in the interwar German economy. We use a calibrated model of sudden stops as our analytical framework and derive four key findings. First, capital flows aggravated the boom–bust cycle of the Weimar economy. Second, these flows were strongly associated—during different periods—with reparations, conditions in the US capital market, and German domestic events. Third, capital flows before 1930 allowed Germany to pay reparations on credit and thus postponed the hour of reckoning when that debt had to be serviced using trade surpluses. Fourth, the German economic downturn in 1931 was due more to capital flows than to productivity shocks or reparations.     

Recession, inflation and the international monetary system

The difficult circumstances being faced by the world economy and its uncertain prospects for the 1980s make it necessary to take a new look at the present financial mechanisms and international institutions for monetary cooperation, with a view to adapting them to current needs and to developments in the near future. The industrial countries will have more modest rates of growth than in earlier decades, and this will have significant consequences for the developing countries: (a) stagnation of official development aid flows; (b) possible intensification of protectionist trends; (c) slow growth of producers of raw materials whose export markets will be seriously limited; (d) gradual shift of world economic and political activity toward oil-producing developing countries and, to a lesser extent, toward the exporters of manufacturers; (e) industrial countries and raw materials producers will become increasingly interdependent; (f) oil-producing and other higher income developing countries will increase their participation in regional economic cooperation and official development aid efforts. Some of the more specific problems which require attention from the international community are inflation and recession; structural disequilibria, recycling and external debt; adjustment process; creation of liquidity and transfer of resources; and participation of the developing countries in the monetary system.     

National and international market integration in the 19th century: Evidence from comovement

This paper analyzes relative wheat price fluctuations to investigate market integration among 72 European and US cities. Applying a Dynamic Factor Model, which has seldom been used in market integration analysis, prices are decomposed into international, national and local components. Thus, national and international market integration are identified by a statistical restriction, and results for each single market are obtained. The first result is that globalization has accelerated faster in the first than in the second half of the 19th century, putting the post-1850 transport revolution into perspective. The USA integrated only later into the European market, discounting the role of the “grain invasion” for trade history. I also show that the European nations that turned protectionist after 1880 reduced the impact of foreign shocks, while free traders fully integrated into the international economy.     

数字贸易规则:关键议题、现实挑战与构建策略

建立和完善数字贸易发展的制度框架是国际贸易领域重要的新兴议题,也是各国对WTO改革最关切的议题之一。跨境数据流动、数字税收、数据(设施)本地化、数字贸易市场准入、数字知识产权保护以及跨境电商便利化是建立全球数字贸易框架的关键议题。目前,跨境数据流动共识规则缺失,数字产品或服务征税争议较大,数据(设施)本地化立场不同,云计算服务分类和准入存在分歧,保护数字知识产权诉求较多,贸易便利化规则尚不明确。中国支持全球各国在WTO框架下开展数字贸易新议题、新规则的谈判,具体建议包括:确立WTO在解决跨境数据流动问题上的核心地位;建立鼓励创新、兼顾公平的数字税收规则;建立以保障网络安全为基础的数据本地化规则;尊重各国在数字领域市场准入方面的关切;合理保护数字知识产权;积极促进数字贸易便利化。     

Do private capital markets insure regional risk? Evidence from the United States and Europe

A striking feature of international economic relations is the limited extent of intertemporal trade and risk-sharing among nations. This paper uses data on consumption, income, and production from regions of the United States to address the question of whether the limited participation of national economies in international capital markets is a fundamental aspect of economic relations among large geographic regions, or whether it is specifically an artifact of international economic relations. We conclude that capital flows among the regions of the United States are significantly larger than those across countries. However, such private markets still provide a relatively limited degree of insurance against regional fluctuations.     

The Impact of Corruption on the Black Market Premium

Recently the impact of institutional factors on macro variables has been gaining momentum. Researchers have investigated the impact of corruption, law and order, and bureaucracy on economic growth, inflation, investment, productivity, and the real exchange rate. In this article, we investigate empirically the impact of institutional factors on the black market premium. In many developing nations, because of government restrictions on capital and trade flows, there exists a black market for foreign exchange. By using data from 60 developing countries over the 1982-1995 period, we show that the black market premium is higher in countries that are plagued by more corruption. This finding seems to be insensitive to five different measures of corruption as well as whether cross-section or panel data are used.     

Capital Flows and Crises

There are many things that went wrong for the countries caught up in the Asian crisis of 1997, but out of the myriad causes, two clear central problems can be identified—the fatal combination of large and volatile international capital flows, interacting with fragile domestic financial sectors. This paper focuses on the first of these issues— international capital flows.