Some considerations about 1992

Invited Address at the Twenty-Seventh International Atlantic Economic Conference, March 18–24, 1989, Barcelona, Spain. Partial financial support from CICYT Grants n. PB 86-013 and PB 0340 is gratefully acknowledged.     

A new class of production functions and an argument against purely labor‐augmenting technical change

This paper derives the macro‐level production function from idea‐based microfoundations. Labor‐augmenting and capital‐augmenting developments are assumed to be Pareto‐distributed and mutually dependent. Using the Clayton copula family to capture this dependence, a new “Clayton–Pareto” class of production functions is derived that nests both the Cobb–Douglas and the constant elasticity of substitution. In the most general case, technical change is not purely labor‐augmenting over the long run, but it augments both capital and labor. Under certain parametrizations, the derived elasticity of substitution between capital and labor exceeds unity and, therefore, gives rise to long‐run endogenous growth.     

Some economic considerations for a black separatist state in the United States

Summary and Conclusion Upon reflection, it appears that one of the major sources of N.S.’s difficulties is to be found in its poverty of skilled human resources, which can be seen in relationship to the occupational structure of its labor force. This was clearly brought out above in Table 3, which graphically displays the almost classic weaknesses of its labor force by occupation and industry-i.e., the suboptimal distribution of skilled manpower vis-à-vis unskilled labor.     

Heterogeneous production functions and regional disparity

On explaining regional differences, the current literature emphasizes the difference in factor accumulations. This paper suggests an additional possibility that regions may differ in parameter values in their production functions. In terms of the Cobb–Douglas production function, regions may differ in the share of capital in income. Using the province-level data in China, this paper shows that capital shares have a very significant and positive effect on per capita GDP. In particular, the differences in production functions explain 46.6% of the difference in per capita output between the East region and West region in China. Further, using the firm-level data, we show that the differences in regional production function are likely due to different industry compositions.     

Some maize production parameters for KwaZulu

As part of a farming systems research project in KwaZulu, a range of agronomic variables (hybrid and open‐pollinated seed, frequeincy of weeding and fertilizer rates) were evaluated for small‐scale subsistence and commercial maize (Zea mays L.) production.

Not all hybrids performed well but a group of adapted cultivars outyielded the open‐pollinated cultivars consistently. The grain yield regression equation of a leading hybrid (PNR6549) on the best open‐pollinated cultivar (Kalahari Early Pearl) was y = 0,32 + l,2x (yield range: 1 t ha‘¹ to 8 t ha^‐1). The large‐grained Hickory King and a traditional cultlvar (Maputaland), while giving lower grain yields than other open‐pollinated and hybrid culttvars, were preferred for consumption as green mealies (corn‐on‐the‐cob).

Weed control was a major determinant of yield. At the lowest level of purchased input (open‐pollinated seed, no fertilizer), increasing the number of weedings from one to three raised the mean grain yield over two seasons from 1,1 t ha^‐1 to 2,0 t ha^‐1, and from 2,2 t ha‘¹ to 3,8 t ha‘¹ in the treatment incorporating a hybrid cultivar and the highest fertilizer level.

Production objectives and labour and cash constraints in KwaZulu differ between subsistence farmers and semi‐commercial and commercial farmers. The data presented here provide guidelines to the selection of suitable options for the various categories of farmer.     

山东省生物医药科技与产业发展对策研究

本文从描述学习型组织理论和创建方法在我国的推进情况入手 ,分析了我国在创建学习型企业中存在的主要问题 ,并提出了我国企业在创建学习型组织中应树立相应正确的观念和采取有效的方法和措施。     

Hiring functions and a new index for measuring mismatch: Some empirical results for european countries

Conclusion This paper investigates the relation between mismatch and sectoral hiring functions. Traditionally, the indices used to measure structural mismatch were constructed by assuming that the hiring functions are identical across sectors. However, both theoretically and empirically, there is no reason to believe that the hiring behavior of the firms or the search methods of the workers are identical across sectors. Evidence for this is provided in the Appendix of this paper where it is shown that theUV curves for the different regions in Great Britain and different sectors in Switzerland are not identical. Brunello [1990] also shows that the hiring functions do not have to be identical. This paper also demonstrates that it may not be possible to eliminate structural unemployment totally when the hiring functions across sectors are non-identical. In other words, total hiring may be maximized even if theV/U ratios are not equalized across sectors. This conclusion is important as it highlights that the indices used in empirical work to measure structural mismatch may be seriously flawed.This paper develops an index for measuring mismatch which is rooted in the theory of hiring functions and utilizes the approach of measuring angle between vectors by the use of cos() functions. The FH index presented in this paper is based on a simple arithmetic mean of regional or sectoral cos() functions. It has been estimated for several European countries, and the empirical results highlight some interesting conclusions concerning regional mismatch in these countries.     

Monetary policy reaction functions and saving-investment correlations: Some cross-country evidence

Zusammenfassung Reaktionsfunktionen für die Geldpolitik und Korrelationen zwischen Ersparnis und Investitionen: Evidenz aus einer Querschnittsuntersuchung. — In diesem Artikel wird untersucht, wie stark die Geldpolitik auf Ver?nderungen in der Handelsbilanz reagiert. Verschiedene Sch?tzungen der linearen Reaktionsfunktionen mit Quartalsdaten für Deutschland, Italien, Japan und die USA zeigen, da\ in allen L?ndern mit Ausnahme der USA ein Defizit in der Handelsbilanz zu einer restriktiven Geldpolitik führt. Ein spezielles Sch?tzverfahren erlaubt den Schlu\, da\ die Reaktionsfunktionen nicht-linear sind, soweit es sich um die Handelsbilanzvariable handelt. Auch zeigt sich, da\ die Geldpolitik st?rker auf Defizite als auf überschüsse reagiert. Sobald Asymmetrie zugelassen wird, verbessern sich die Reaktionsfunktionen und die Parametersch?tzungen werden pr?ziser.

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Résumé Les fonctions de la réaction de la politique monétaire et les correlations entre épargne et investissements: quelque évidence d’une étude de plusieurs pays. — Dans cet article les auteurs examinent le degré avec lequel la politique monétaire a réagi à la balance courante. L’OMC, robustes et paramètres-variables estimations des fonctions de réaction linéaires avec des données trimestrielles de l’Allemagne, l’Italie, du Japon et des Etats Unis proposent pour les pays sauf les Etats Unis que le déficit de la balance courante mène à une politique monétaire restrictive. Les résultats d’une estimation spécifique indiquent que les fonctions de réaction sont non-linéaires aux termes de la variable pour la balance courante. La politique monétaire réagit plus fortement aux déficits qu’aux surplus. En outre, l’admission de l’asymétrie améliore la performance des fonctions de réaction et produit des paramètres estimés plus précis.

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Resumen Funciones de reacción de politica monetaria y correlaciones entre ahorro e inversión: alguna evidencia para una muestra de países. — En este trabajo se examina el grade en el cual la politica monetaria ha reaccionado a la cuenta corriente. Estimaciones MCC y de parametres robustos y variables de las funciones lineares de reacción con datos trimestrales de Alemania, Italia, Japon y de los Estados Unidos sugieren — los Estados Unidos siendo la excepción — que, ceteris paribus, el déficit de cuenta corriente resulta en una oferta monetaria restrictiva. Los valores criticos de la estimación (threshold estimation) indican que las funciones de reacción son no lineares en cuanto a la variable de la cuenta corriente, y que la política monetaria reacciona más a los déficits que a los superávits. Además, al incorporar la asimetricidad se mejora la performance de las funciones de reacción y se las estimaciones de los parámetros resultan más precisas.

     

The choice of technique in a batch production industry: Some lessons from a study of bolt and nut manufacture

In a batch industry the characteristics of an establishment's output (scale, batch size, product dimensions) are critical determinants of the least-cost technique. In bolt and nut manufacture the least-cost technique draws selectively on different technologies for different parts of the product mix. Sensitivity analysis suggests that factor prices alone are relatively unimportant in determining the least-cost solution. Three technologies widely used in engineering industries - machining, hot forging and cold forming - are considered at four scales of output for a specified product mix comprising bolts and nuts conforming to an international standard. (For each technology a range of different machines is included.)     

关于构建和谐社会之我见

构建和谐社会,以经济富强、政治民主、文化繁荣为综合基础,是一个终极目标,反映了科学发展的整体和长远要求。其基本点,以公平即公正与平等为原则,也是社会主义的本质精神。要铺垫全民就业(在当前即零家庭失业)和全民社保、全民教育三条底线。要处理好官与民、贫与富、城与乡、劳与资四方面的人际关系。     

构建台湾海峡经济区的几点思考

构建台湾海峡经济区不仅适应了世界经济区域化潮流,而且对中国的和平崛起具有重要战略意义。它的构建不仅可以形成一个能与长三角与珠三角相媲美的又一个经济增长中心,而且将促进两岸经济一体化,进而促进政治和解与和平统一。本文认为类似自由贸易区或CEPA的模式是台湾海峡经济区的最佳选择。     

Freia and Kompas,The Central Planning Bureau's new generation of macro-economic policy models: A review article

Summary On the eve of the 50th anniversary of macro-economic model building in the Netherlands, the Central Planning Bureau introduced two new models for policy analysis, the annual model FREIA and the quarterly model KOMPAS. The main novelty of these models as compared to their predecessors is a fully fledged submodel of the financial sector. This review article highlights some features of both models and compares their properties with those of other models and with results from the literature. The models have been explicitly constructed for practical use and therefore do not reflect any theoretical approach in particular.Critical comments on a previous version of this article by the Department's colleagues and a referee are gratefully acknowledged.     

Some reflections on a conference: Commitment and theory

During the recently held International Conference on Population Development in Southern Africa, delegates seemed to be reluctant to face post‐modernisation theories on development. The cultural concept was also used in a static way. Delegates seemed to be afraid to ‘politicise’ issues. This is a pity, because ultimately good practice is informed by good theory.     

员工内部持股的几点思考

员工内部持股作为国企改革的一种运行方式，其目的在于建立一种利益共享、风险共担的企业、经营者和员工三位一体的新型利益共同体，以充分调动员工的积极性，促进企业健康发展，实践证明具有指导意义。以深圳的国企改革为例，自1996年以来，有关部门先后选择了140多家国有中小企业(约占全市中小企业总数的10％)进行员工内部持股的试点，均取得不同程度的收效，……     

Some investigations of demand and supply functions for money in the Federal Republic of Germany, 1965–1974

Conclusion The overall conclusion of this study is that a simple demand-for-money function of the type discussed above is justified on empirical grounds. We have also shown that the demand for money and the supply of money can be well estimated simultaneously in the West German case. The estimates we have provided avoid the biases of ordinary least squares and they also overcome some of the problems arising when the money supply is treated as an exogenous variable. Furthermore, the hypothesis that the money supply should be treated endogenously and not exogenously receives strong support from these estimates; what is more, the quantity of money supplied is responsive to some of the same variables which determine the quantity demanded. Finally, the money-supply function is shown to be well explained by the short-term interest rate, along with other variables; it is this short-term rate which links the supply function to the rest of the model. There is, therefore, a strong link between the monetary sector and the real sector via some interest rate, and consequently it is of paramount importance to take into consideration the monetary sector when constructing macroeconomic models. This is not always the case with some of the models reported in the literature.

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Zusammenfassung Einige Untersuchungen der Geldangebots- und Nachfragefunktionen in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland 1965–1974. — In den letzten Jahren wurden in einigen empirischen Untersuchungen Geldnachfragefunktionen gesch?tzt, wobei neuerdings die Ans?tze, in denen die Geldmenge als endogene Variable betrachtet wird, auch gleichzeitig eine Geldangebotsfunktion enthalten. Dieser Artikel befaΒt sich mit beiden Ans?tzen. Aus dieser Untersuchung l?Βt sich im allgemeinen schlieΒen, daΒ eine einfache Geldnachfragefunktion vom hier diskutierten Typ sich empirisch bew?hrt. Es wird auch gezeigt, daβ im Falle der Bundesrepublik das Geldangebot und die Geldnachfrage simultan gesch?tzt werden k?nnen. Die hier aufgeführten Sch?tzungen vermeiden sowohl den ?bias? der Methode des kleinsten Quadrats als auch die Probleme, die entstehen, wenn man das Geldangebot als eine exogene Variable betrachtet. Darüber hinaus wird durch die Sch?tzungen die Hypothese gestützt, daΒ die Geldmenge als endogene und nicht als exogene Variable behandelt werden sollte; wichtiger noch, es wird festgestellt, daΒ das Geldangebot auf einige der gleichen Variablen reagiert, die auch die Geldnachfrage bestimmen. SchlieΒlich erweist sich vor allem der kurzfristige Zinssatz als wichtige erkl?rende Variable für die Geldangebotsfunktion, die mit den anderen Sektoren des Modells durch diesen Zinssatz gekoppelt ist. Es gibt deshalb eine starke Verbindung zwischen dem monet?ren und realen Sektor über den Zinssatz — eine Erkenntnis, die bei der Konstruktion von makro?konomischen Modellen unbedingt zu berücksichtigen ist.

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Résumé Quelques investigations des fonctions de demande et d’offre d’argent dans la République Fédérale d’Allemagne, 1965–1974. — Pendant les années dernières nombreuses études ont estimé des fonctions de demande d’argent ayant la tendance à intégrer les fonctions de demande d’argent et d’offre d’argent en traitant le stock d’argent comme une variable endogène. Cet article essaie d’épuiser les deux approches. On peut tirer la conclusion générale de cette étude qu’on peut justifier empiriquement une simple fonction de demande d’argent de la sorte que nous avons discutée. De plus nous avons montré qu’on peut bien estimer simultanement la demande d’argent aussi bien que l’offre d’argent concernant les cas d’Allemagne de l’Ouest. Les estimations faites évitent les distorsions des ordinaires carrés les plus minimes et aussi elles solutionnent quelques problèmes qui arrivent en traitant l’offre d’argent comme une variable exogène. De plus, à cause de ces estimations on peut soutenir essentiellement la hypothèse que l’offre d’argent devait être traitée endogènement et pas exogènement; en outre, la quantité d’argent offerte répond à un nombre des mêmes variables qui déterminent la quantité demandée. Finalement la fonction d’offre d’argent est bien expliquée par le taux d’intérêt à court terme, ensemble avec des autres variables; c’est ce taux à court terme donnant la connection entre la fonction d’offre et le reste du modèle. Cependant il y a une connection forte entre le secteur monétaire et le secteur réel via un taux d’intérêt, et en conséquence il est très important de considérer le secteur monetaire en construisant des modèles macroéconomiques.

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Resumen Algunas investigaciones para funciones de demanda y de oferta de dinero en la República Federal de Alemania, 1965–1974. — En a?los recientes una serie de estudios empíricos han estimado funciones de demanda por dinero, siendo la última tendencia la de integrar funciones de demanda por dinero y oferta de dinero, tratando el stock de dinero como endógeno. Este artículo trata de abarcar ambos enfoques. La conclusión general del presente estudio es que una simple función de demanda por dinero del tipo discutido se justifica en términos empíricos. También se demuestra que la demanda por dinero y la oferta de dinero se pueden estimar muy bien simultàneamente en el caso de Alemania Occidental. Las estimaciones que hemos hecho evitan los sesgos de los mínimos cuadrados ordinarios y también remueven algunos de los problemas que surgen cuando la oferta de dinero es tratada como variable exógena. Además, la hipótesis que la oferta de dinero debería ser tratada endógenamente y no exógenamente es soportada fuertemente por estas estimaciones. Más aún, la cantidad de dinero ofrecida responde a algunas de las mismas variables que determinan la cantidad demandada. Finalmente, se muestra que la función de oferta de dinero se puede explicar muy bien por medio de la tasa de interés de corto plazo, junto con otras variables. Es esta tasa de corto plazo la que vincula la función de oferta con el resto del modelo. Por lo tanto existe un vínculo muy fuerte entre el sector monetario y el sector real via una tasa de interés y, consecuentemente, es de suma importancia tomar en consideratión el sector monetario cuando se construyen modelos macroeconómicos.