基于实物期权的风险投资项目评价分析

风险投资项目与其他项目相比不确定性更大,在传统投资决策方法下,风险投资项目的不确定性使项目的投资价值更低,而实物期权方法作为一种新的投资决策方法为风险项目投资中不确定性问题提供了一种解决的思路。尝试把实物期权理论引入到风险投资项目评估中,并把传统方法与实物期权方法结合起来,旨在完善风险投资项目的评价方法。最后得出结论,实物期权方法为投资者继续投资提供了科学的依据,其在风险项目投资决策中的应用具有重要意义。     

Optimal R&D investment for a risk-averse entrepreneur

Entrepreneurs investing in R&D projects face technical uncertainty associated with the cost to completion of the project, which is idiosyncratic and inherently unhedgeable. We extend existing real options models of R&D investment to incorporate the cost of bearing this unhedgeable risk and find it decreases risk-averse entrepreneurs’ valuations of R&D projects and increases the minimum NPVs required for continued investment in R&D (threshold NPVs) relative to ‘unpriced risk’ values and threshold NPVs. As in the ‘unpriced risk’ case, for less risk-averse entrepreneurs with small R&D projects, threshold NPVs remain negative and decrease with technical uncertainty. However, for sufficiently risk-averse entrepreneurs with sufficiently large R&D projects, threshold NPVs can become positive and increase with technical uncertainty.     

Finite project life and uncertainty effects on investment

This paper revisits the important result of the real options approach to investment under uncertainty, which states that increased uncertainty raises the value of waiting and thus decelerates investment. Typically in this literature projects are assumed to be perpetual. However, in today's economy firms face a fast-changing technology environment, implying that investment projects are usually considered to have a finite life. The present paper studies investment projects with finite project life, and we find that, in contrast with the existing theory, investments may be accelerated by increased uncertainty. It is shown that this particularly happens at low levels of uncertainty and when project life is short.     

Entry,financing, and bankruptcy decisions: The limited liability effect

A firm, which has a privileged right to undertake an irreversible investment project, simultaneously determines whether to exercise this project and also how many bonds to issue in the presence of demand uncertainty. The firm will not exercise the project until its net value from investing immediately equals its option value from delaying investment. The firm’s choice of debt levels balances the tax advantage of debt against a cost associated with the event of bankruptcy. The effects of uncertainty, asset specificity, and the costs to purchase capital later on a firm’s entry, financing, and bankruptcy decisions are examined and compared with those in the literature.     

滨城聚鑫房地产公司开发项目案例

本案例通过对聚鑫房地产公司遇到的项目开发难题进行分析，提出了三种意见，即立即开发、不可开发、观望后做决定。通过对项目收入、成本费用等各方面进行分析、计算，并对项目建成后的经济效果进行预测，帮助学员了解项目投资中需要注意的资本成本、投资风险和现金流量等问题，以把握项目投资的关键点。     

BT模式下的市政工程投资风险分析

市政工程采用BT建设模式在我国应用越来越多。政府在一定时间内将市政工程项目全权交由投资承包商进行建设,政府对项目进行宏观控制、间接管理,因此投资控制难度很大,容易造成投资超支现象。因此采用BT模式,政府和投资承包商两个项目主体都面临相应的风险,在我国BT模式没有可参照的标准,项目涉及的参与方多,实施过程操作复杂,不确定性因素多的前提下,如何对项目进行投资控制,实现互利共赢,是需要解决的关键问题。本文根据市政工程BT模式的投融资特点,分析了市政工程BT项目的成本构成和费用控制的要点,梳理了市政工程BT项目回购基价影响因素,提出了控制回购基价的有效方式。并对BT模式下的市政工程风险进行了全面的分析。     

A model for irreversible investment with construction and revenue uncertainty

This paper presents a model of investment in projects that are characterized by uncertainty over both the construction costs and revenues. Both processes are modeled as spectrally negative Lévy jump-diffusions. The optimal stopping problem that determines the value of the project is solved under fairly general assumptions. It is found that the current value of the benefit-to-cost ratio (BCR) decreases in the frequency of negative shocks to the construction process. This implies that the cost overruns that can be expected if one ignores such shocks are increasing in their frequency. Based on calibrated data, the model is applied to the proposed construction of high-speed rail in the UK and it is found that its economic case cannot currently be made and is unlikely to be met at any time in the next decade. In addition it is found that ignoring construction uncertainty leads to a substantial probability of an erroneous decision being taken.     

BP神经网络在项目投资风险分析中的应用

影响项目投资经济效益评价指标的参数很多,这些参数均具有一定的不确定性.由于各参数的不确定性,其项目投资经济效益评价指标值也是不确定的,因此,对投资项目所做的经济效益评价结论必将带有风险.在经济评价工作中,应当对这种风险作出合理的量化分析和估算,以了解项目的风险承受能力,并尽可能采取措施回避风险.本文共搜集了10个相似投资项目,根据BP神经网络工作原理筛选确定了6个影响和制约项目投资因素的指标作为神经网络的输入变量,并提出了基于BP神经网络的项目投资风险分析模型;其中7个投资项目作为训练样本,2个作为检测实例,最后一个进行敏感性分析.经过测算,其精度完全可以满足实际项目投资风险分析的需要.因此,神经网络在这方面有很好的应用前景.     

工程项目进度管理及控制探讨

工程项目进度管理是工程项目管理的一项极为重要的工作,其能全面反映项目的实施情况。做好施工阶段的项目进度控制管理对保证施工企业履行合同、工程项目按期竣工投入使用发挥着决定性作用。文章对工程项目进度管理的影响因素进行了深入分析,并对影响其的相关因素提出了具体的管理措施。工程项目进度控制、成本控制、质量控制,是项目管理三个核心内容,相铺相成。它是确保施工工程项目按期完成,科学安排资源投入、节约工程成本投资的重要举措。     

Uncertain dynamics,correlation effects,and robust investment decisions

We analyze a firm׳s investment problem when the dynamics of project value and investment cost are uncertain. We provide an explicit solution using a robust method for an ambiguity averse firm taking this into account. Ambiguity aversion regarding a common risk factor impacts differently than ambiguity aversion regarding investment cost residual risk. Correlation between project value and investment cost matters; ambiguity aversion regarding common risk can decrease the investment probability only if correlation is positive. Ambiguity aversion regarding residual risk always increases the investment probability. When only project value is risky, volatility can monotonically decrease the investment threshold; this does not hold with the multiple prior method.     

工程管理曲线在公路工程中的应用

施工项目进度控制与投资控制及质量控制一样,是项目施工中的重点控制之一。它是保证施工项目按期完成,合理安排资源供应、节约工程成本的重要措施。现就其进行简要分析。     

A real options approach to valuing and negotiating licensing agreements

We apply real options modeling to a common pharmaceutical industry licensing arrangement to take into account various uncertainties and the flexibility value. The managerial flexibility is limited to the project abandonment option. We extend previous work by incorporating the phases required to bring the project from patent approval to market. We also incorporate a deterministic variable into the cash flow process that provides a realistic product lifecycle. We focus on the allocation of project value between licensor and licensee, i.e., the so-called “profit split” ratio (PSR) because it is commonly used in practice to negotiate terms. We find: (1) Ignoring the managerial flexibility in valuation may cause the licensee to either forego an acceptable deal or enter into an inferior deal. (2) The magnitude of project profitability as well as cost and sales uncertainty affects the licensor's bargaining power over compensation for granting abandonment flexibility to the licensee. (3) Managers must exercise care when estimating sales volatility because the flexibility value is more sensitive to sales volatility than it is to cost volatility. (4) Failure to incorporate the product lifecycle will produce suboptimal capital investment decisions.     

谈房地产基建项目的工程造价控制与管理

本文主要对房地产的基建项目做了简单的介绍,旨在强调基建项目的建设的重要性。工程造价的控制与管理作为基建项目的重要内容,其造价的控制是否合理,管理工作是否规范,对基础项目的建设水平、工程的质量以及最后的投资效益,都起着重要的影响。因此,抓好房地产基建项目的工程造价控制与管理的工作,具有非常重要的意义。     

政府投资项目工程造价控制研究

政府投资项目是指以财政拨款、国土基金、城市基础设施增容费、教育附加费、排污费、住房基金、市属国有企业上缴利润等投资的建设项目.当前,政府投资项目造价控制仍然停留在对项目实施阶段的造价控制上,缺少对项目前期投资决策、设计、招标等各个阶段的造价控制,没有实施有效的造价全过程控制.文章阐述了时政府投资项目工程造价控制的有效管理方法,说明对国有资金和以国有资金为主的投资项目实施造价控制是十分必要的.     

Project success and project team management: Evidence from capital projects in the process industries

Efficient project execution is a key business objective in many domains and particularly so for capital projects in the process industries, but existing project management research gives little direction about how project team factors influence three important capital project outcomes: cost, schedule, and operability. After an extensive cross-disciplinary review of the general team and project management literatures, we constructed and tested a theoretically based, five-dimensional model of organizational context, project team design, project team leadership, project team processes, and project outcome factors. We examined the model by means of an empirical study of 56 newly completed capital projects executed by 15 Fortune 500 companies in the process industries. The results indicate the value of disaggregating project outcomes for research purposes. Different bundles of project team factors were found to drive project cost, schedule, and operability. Project team efficacy, cross-functional project teams, autonomous project team structure, and virtual office usage were the strongest predictors of project cost effectiveness. Continuity of project leadership, cross-functional project teams, and project manager incentives were the strongest predictors of project construction schedule. In contrast, clear project goals and an office design to facilitate effective communication were the main predictors of plant operability. Implications of these findings for researchers and project practitioners are discussed. One major practical implication of our findings is that project managers need to clearly focus and prioritize their goals for each project so they can adopt the appropriate bundles of project team practices that will facilitate their goal achievement.     

浅析铁路工程调概索赔策略

铁路项目造价控制是通过概算来控制的,设计院出据的经审核的核备概算是在初步设计基础上编制的,但投资检算仅是对设计的一种考核而不是工程造价的控制指标。这就造成由于设计深度不同造成工程造价不能反映最终的工程施工情况,设计院为了不受到处罚,在投检编制过程中出现可能超概算的情况时,采用人为降低造价标准或一些需发生项目不计算费用的办法,来使投检额控制在概算范围内。为此,如何做好铁路工程的调概索赔管理、通过项目经营求得效益最大化更具挑战性。     

Growth option,debt maturity and cash reserves with bank-tax-interaction

In this paper, we assume a small and micro enterprise(SME, henceforth) invests in a project, of which the investment cost is funded by the private lending and the bank-tax-interaction (BTI, henceforth). We build a tractable model of optimal investment, liquidity and default decisions based on cash flows with liquidity shocks and profitability uncertainty. In contrast to the case with pure private lending, we discover that BTI delays investment and increases the firm value. Furthermore, BTI causes the SME to retain more cash reserves. We also find that the SME prefers to select the BTI as the main financing policy under the higher liquidity risk and small profitability uncertainty. Besides, the impact of debt maturity on financial policies with BTI depends on liquidity shock.     

Incenting managers toward the triple bottom line: An agency and social norm perspective

Research to date has identified CEO pay structure as an important factor in the environmental and social performance of the organization but has not considered how pay may influence these sustainability efforts at the middle‐management level. We address this void with an experimental manipulation of direct and indirect pay incentives for an environmental sustainability project and production cost savings project. Counter to our predictions, investment in sustainability versus cost savings is significantly lower when incentives for both projects are equivalent, and investment is only comparable when incentives for the sustainability project are superior. Further investigation using qualitative data attributes this to differences in the salient social norms that individuals hold and an apparent undervaluing of the indirect incentive derived through sustainability's contribution to cost savings. The results shed light on primary ways in which human resource management practices may be used to embed support for sustainability initiatives throughout the organization.     

谈工程项目建设各阶段的造价控制

工程造价控制是工程建设管理工作的重要组成部分,如何合理确定和有效控制工程投资,是工程项目建设的一大难题,多年来,随着相关管理制度的实施和不断完善,已收到了比较好的效果,但基本建设投资失控的现象依然不同程度的存在,如何加强工程造价控制,提高企业投资效益和竞争能力,是困扰企业发展的难题。造价控制贯穿于工程项目建设的全过程,阐述了设计阶段、招标投标阶段、施工阶段和竣工阶段控制工程造价的措施。     

价值工程在施工项目成本管理中的应用

依据施工项目成本控制原理,结合典型工程项目实际,利用价值工程原理对施工项目成本控制进行多维分析,并提出了具体建议。在经济活动中,用户购买产品并不是购买产品的本身,而是购买它所具有的必要功能。如果功能过高、过全,必然会导致成本费用的提高,而超过必要功能的部分用户并不用要,这就会造成功能过剩;反之,又会造成功能不足。用价值工程进行生产成本的控制就能避免功能过剩和功能不足的现象。