Predicting relative forecasting performance: An empirical investigation

The relative performances of forecasting models change over time. This empirical observation raises two questions. First, is the relative performance itself predictable? Second, if so, can it be exploited in order to improve the forecast accuracy? We address these questions by evaluating the predictive abilities of a wide range of economic variables for two key US macroeconomic aggregates, namely industrial production and inflation, relative to simple benchmarks. We find that business cycle indicators, financial conditions, uncertainty and measures of past relative performances are generally useful for explaining the models’ relative forecasting performances. In addition, we conduct a pseudo-real-time forecasting exercise, where we use the information about the conditional performance for model selection and model averaging. The newly proposed strategies deliver sizable improvements over competitive benchmark models and commonly-used combination schemes. The gains are larger when model selection and averaging are based on both financial conditions and past performances measured at the forecast origin date.     

Benchmarking institutional variety in the eurozone: An empirical investigation

The European debt crisis has shown that the future of the European Union (EU) depends on the willingness of each member country to implement responsible policies, avoid moral hazard and uncooperative attitudes, and ensure stability and soundness. However, the European institutional variety means that each member country reacts differently to shocks and policies, follows a different path of recovery, and adapts to common institutions, including the common currency, in different ways. Helping countries to converge toward a situation that guarantees well-being, stability, and development at the national and community level is the goal of the European benchmark. This benchmark is a framework inspired by European treaties that, through the distance-to-frontier score methodology, aims to measure member countries’ performance and identify inefficiencies and negative externalities within the economic, social, and political institutions of each member country. The paper presents an empirical investigation of the European benchmark. Based on the results obtained, all countries can improve their performance, and none of them can be considered a model for the others. However, the Mediterranean and post-communist countries have more challenges to face and therefore need to make greater efforts.     

我国新股首日回报率的实证分析

新股首日超额回报是世界范围的一种普遍现象,而在我国尤为突出,国内外对此给出了各种解释,但至今尚未形成一致性认识,文章选取1996年1月至2004年12月在我国上海证券交易所上市的616只A股为样本,进行了横截面的分析后发现:信息不对称并非我国新股折价的主要原因,我国新股折价是由二级市场投机引起。     

Foreign location decisions by US transnational firms: An empirical study

The paper aims at identifying the variables that are significant in determining the choice of host countries for manufacturing subsidiaries of US transnational firms. The approach that is taken is to relate variables that on the basis on a priori theoretical reasoning influence foreign location decisions, with (a) total market penetration by US firms and (b) the choice these firms make between exporting to their foreign markets and on site manufacturing. Location decisions are viewed as emerging from the interaction of characteristics typical to the industry of the transnational firm and factors specific to potential host countries. Particular attention is devoted to finding out whether locational choices and market shares are interdependent. The sample of observations under investigation consists of the activities of US majority-owned subsidiaries, classified in fourteen industry groupings and operating twenty countries. Sub-samples of countries are also studied. It is found that for the European countries, in particular EEC members, market penetration is dependent on local manufacturing.     

An empirical investigation into supply chain vulnerability

A growing number of academicians and practitioners have put supply chain risks on their agendas, particularly triggered by a recent series of catastrophic events that have disrupted economies and supply chains around the globe. Given the increasing awareness of this important topic, the purpose of this research was to study supply chain risks in more detail and to investigate the relationship between supply chain vulnerability and supply chain risk. Responses from 760 executives from firms operating in Germany reveal that supply chain characteristics such as a firm's dependence on certain customers and suppliers, the degree of single sourcing, or reliance on global supply sources are relevant for a firm's exposure to supply chain risk. Overall, this research represents the first large-scale investigation of this important relationship and provides a finer understanding of the antecedents of supply chain vulnerability.     

An empirical investigation of intraurban wage gradients

Intraurban wage gradients have received little attention in the urban literature but have been shown theoretically to be important indicators of the spatial characteristics of urban economic activity. This study examines the spatial distribution of wages of five groups of municipal public employees in the Chicago SMSA. Negative wage gradients, significant at the 0.05 level, are found for four of the five labor groups. Results show that monthly wages decrease on average as much as $24 per additional mile from the city center.     

An empirical investigation of scheduling performance criteria

Planning and scheduling significantly influence organizational performance, but literature that pays attention to how organizations could or should organize and assess their planning processes is limited. We extend planning and scheduling theory with a categorization of scheduling performance criteria, based on a three-stage survey research design. Particularly, the results show that, next to schedule quality, the planning process factors timeliness, flexibility, communication, and negotiation are important performance criteria, and especially so in organizations that are faced with high levels of uncertainty. The results suggest that organizational and behavioral aspects of planning and scheduling cannot be mitigated with advanced models and software that solely focus on good schedules. Rather, high quality schedules and high quality scheduling processes need to be facilitated simultaneously to attain high planning and scheduling performance.     

Postauditing capital assets and firm performance: An empirical investigation

The argument presented in this paper is that the adoption of sophisticated postaudit procedures should be associated with improved firm performance. Based on a matched-pair experimental design, utilizing the Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed-ranks test and a newly developed statistic to test for a change point, empirical evidence is provided to support this argument.     

Profit distribution management by Islamic banks: An empirical investigation

The objective of this paper is to ascertain whether Islamic banks do in fact manage profit distributions and if so, what factors are associated with the extent of profit distribution management. The results suggest that most Islamic banks manage profit distributions, with the extent of profit distribution directly related to religiosity, financial development, asset composition, and existence of discretionary reserves, while it is inversely related to market familiarity with Islamic banking, market concentration, depositor funding reliance and the age of the Islamic bank.     

Economic rents and mutual fund performance: An empirical investigation

We investigate the monthly returns of 377 open-end mutual funds during the September 1981–1994 period to learn whether economic rents can be garnered through the judicious selection of the advertising and sales method in the mutual fund industry. Specifically, we seek to learn whether direct sales or mass marketing produces economic rents under the assumption that those rents would be passed on to consumers to build a “high quality” image to differentiate the product line. Results suggest that no-load funds produce superior net returns except in the aggressive growth category.     

Confidence intervals: An empirical investigation of the series in the M-competition

This paper empirically evaluates the uncertainty of forecasts. It does so using the 1001 series of the M-Competition. The study indicates that although, in model fitting the percentage of observations outside the confidence intervals is close to that postulated theoretically, this is not true for forecasting. In the latter case the percentage of observations outside the confidence intervals is much higher than that postulated theoretically. This is so for the great majority of series, forecasting horizonts, and methods. In addition to evaluating the extent of uncertainty, we provide tables to help users to construct more realistic confidence intervals for their forecasts.     

The concepts of power in international business negotiations: An empirical investigation

This article examines the bases of social power, namely individual information power, expert power, legitimate power, and referent power on successful international business negotiations (IBNs). The author conducted an online survey among international business executives working in the UK for multinational corporation subsidiaries who were asked to report on the success of their most recent negotiating experience in terms of cooperative (integrative) and competitive (distributive) outcomes. Information power, expert power, and referent power were supported by these results in terms of significance. Unexpectedly, however, information power was positively correlated with integrative or cooperative outcomes and processes. The correlation related to legitimate power was negative but not statistically significant so this hypothesis was not supported. Our results not only contribute to international negotiation theory, but also can assist in the selection and training of practitioners. The academic contribution of this study also relates to model exploration. It brings causal statistical objectivity to qualitatively developed concepts as an essential step in development of knowledge. These theoretical and managerial implications of the study are examined. Furthermore, directions for future research that build on the findings of the study are indicated.     

Credit in the euro area: An empirical investigation using aggregate data

This paper uses multivariate cointegration techniques to estimate a model of aggregate bank lending in the euro area. The model provides a quantitative benchmark for assessing conjunctural developments in loans to the area-wide private sector. Large and protracted deviations of realised loans from the paths implied by the model may reveal information about the emergence of financial imbalances as well as about the state of the economy, particularly about the strength of inflationary pressures. A specific application of the model shows that its error-correction term contains information on future changes in inflation over forecast horizons of relevance for monetary policy.     

Internet diffusion and free riding in insurance markets: An empirical investigation

This paper studies the effect of internet diffusion on free riding in insurance markets, with a focus on automobile insurance. Internet usage affects both the demand and supply sides of insurance markets, while also having a bearing on institutions. Our cross‐sectional analysis based on the United States supports the main hypothesis that greater internet diffusion reduced free riding by uninsured motorists. This response was fairly elastic and the reduction in the prevalence of uninsured motorists holds across different empirical specifications. Implications of these findings are discussed.     

An empirical investigation of water consumption forecasting methods

Many regions on earth face daily limitations in the quantity and quality of the water resources available. As a result, it is necessary to implement reliable methodologies for water consumption forecasting that will enable the better management and planning of water resources. This research analyses, for the first time, a large database containing data from 2 million water meters in 274 unique postal codes, in one of the most densely populated areas of Europe, which faces issues of droughts and overconsumption in the hot summer months. Using the R programming language, we built and tested three alternative forecasting methodologies, employing univariate forecasting techniques including a machine-learning algorithm, with very promising results.     

Calvo vs. Rotemberg in a trend inflation world: An empirical investigation

This paper estimates and compares New-Keynesian DSGE monetary models of the business cycle derived under two different pricing schemes—Calvo (1983) and Rotemberg (1982)—under a positive trend inflation rate. Our empirical findings (i) support trend inflation as an empirically relevant feature of the U.S. great moderation; (ii) provide evidence in favor of the statistical superiority of the Calvo setting; (iii) point to a substantially lower degree of price indexation under Calvo. We show that the superiority of the Calvo model is due to the restrictions imposed by such a pricing scheme on the aggregate demand equation.     

GARCH models,tail indexes and error distributions: An empirical investigation

We perform a large simulation study to examine the extent to which various generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models capture extreme events in stock market returns. We estimate Hill's tail indexes for individual S&P 500 stock market returns and compare these to the tail indexes produced by simulating GARCH models. Our results suggest that actual and simulated values differ greatly for GARCH models with normal conditional distributions, which underestimate the tail risk. By contrast, the GARCH models with Student's t conditional distributions capture the tail shape more accurately, with GARCH and GJR-GARCH being the top performers.     

Corporate environmental policy and abnormal stock price returns: An empirical investigation

This paper examines the correlation between the excess stock market returns and the adoption of an environmental protocol by companies. The underlying hypothesis that I test is whether evidence of the adoption of environmental policy, prosecution by an environmental agency or the routinized training of staff in environmental protocols, which proxies for the willingness of managers to invest for the long term, is associated with superior economic returns to shareholders. I find that both the adoption of an environmental policy and prosecution for breach of environment standards have significant explanatory power in an analysis of excess returns. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. and ERP Environment     

Market orientation as determinant of entrepreneurship: An empirical investigation on SMEs

Entrepreneurial Orientation (EO) and Market Orientation (MO) are considered key factors in ensuring firm longevity in the new competitive landscape. Despite extensive research during the past decade, most of the studies use samples that exclude small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which represent the majority of economic activity worldwide. Some studies do investigate this relationship in small companies but place little importance on the subtle differences between SMEs and large companies when measuring MO. This study empirically investigates the relationship between MO and EO on a sample of 2500 Swedish SMEs. A new measure of MO that takes into consideration SMEs specific conditions has been developed and used. Findings suggest that MO is the main determinant of EO in SMEs.     

Effects of standardization and innovation on mass customization: An empirical investigation

Mass customization (MC) refers to the capability to produce customized goods for a mass market. Innovation can enhance the flexibility and responsiveness of a company, and standardization enables the company to achieve economies of scale and scope, both of which are necessary for developing MC capability. A conceptual model is proposed to explore the relationships among innovation, standardization, MC capability, and delivery speed. Hypotheses are tested using survey data from 204 manufacturing companies in China. The results show that standardization positively influences innovation. Innovation and standardization positively affect MC capability and are complementary in developing MC capability. Innovation significantly enhances delivery speed. However, the direct effect of standardization on delivery speed is nonsignificant. In addition, innovation and standardization indirectly affect delivery speed through MC capability. This study contributes to the literature by providing empirical evidence on the individual and interactive effects of standardization and innovation in developing MC capability and their joint influence on delivery speed. The results will help managers understand the roles of standardization and innovation in improving organizational capability and performance.