SUCCESSFUL IN THE LONG RUN: A META‐REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF PERSISTENT FIRM PROFITS

We study the profit persistence literature by applying meta‐regression analysis (MRA) to a set of 36 empirical papers, which analyze the persistence of abnormal firm profits over time. The analyzed literature provides evidence for a mediocre degree of persistence in abnormal profits. An initial analysis of the distribution of reported profit persistence estimates reveals some degree of excess variation. This points toward publication bias that favors significant results independent of their algebraic sign. The MRA, however, reveals that publication bias is particularly favoring results that indicate profit persistence and thus contradict the neoclassical model of perfect competition. Moreover, the MRA enables to control for heterogeneity driven by the study design. We find that the analyzed country (developing vs. developed), the applied econometric approach, as well as the analyzed period of time are significant drivers of heterogeneity in reported persistence estimates.     

内部控制质量、产权性质与盈余持续性

通过对沪深两市A股主板上市公司2009—2013年间数据样本的实证检验，探寻上市公司内部控制质量的提高是否伴随着公司盈余持续性的提高，比较分析国有控股和民营控股公司内部控制质量的变化对盈余持续性的影响差异，同时为了进一步探究内部控制对盈余持续性的影响，将其划分为应计持续性和现金流持续性。研究结果表明：内部控制质量的提高与盈余持续性的提高存在显著的正相关关系；将盈余持续性细分后仍然可以得到内部控制质量提高，应计持续性与现金流持续性也相应提高的结论。通过国有控股和民营控股公司的对比，发现在国有控股公司中，内部控制质量越高，盈余持续性也越高，但当内部控制质量提高时，盈余持续性并没有显著改善；而在民营控股公司中，内部控制质量与盈余持续性的相关性有所减弱，但当内部控制质量提高时，盈余持续性明显提高。     

Measuring Conditional Persistence in Nonlinear Time Series*

The persistence properties of economic time series have been a primary object of investigation in a variety of guises since the early days of econometrics. Recently, work on nonlinear modelling for time series has introduced the idea that persistence of a shock at a point in time may vary depending on the state of the process at that point in time. This article suggests investigating the persistence of processes conditioning on their history as a tool that may aid parametric nonlinear modelling. In particular, we suggest that examining the nonparametrically estimated derivatives of the conditional expectation of a variable with respect to its lag(s) may be a useful indicator of the variation in persistence with respect to its past history. We discuss in detail the implementation of the measure and present a Monte Carlo investigation. We further apply the persistence analysis to real exchange rates.     

The effects of formal and informal CEO power on debt policy persistence

We explore the general trends of debt policy persistence and how formal and informal CEO power may influence the persistence based on four dimensions of debt policy. Using a sample of Chinese listed firms during 2008–2018, we clearly identify, for the first time, that the general trends of debt policy persistence include an initial downward trend phase (of 4–5 years) and a subsequent stable trend phase. We divide CEO power into formal and informal CEO power and find that CEOs’ formal power can help to increase debt policy persistence, while the role of informal power is the opposite, providing evidence that CEO power has a double-edged effect on debt policy persistence. Further, our results show that the most important dimensions through which formal and informal CEO power have their respective effects are ownership power and financial expert power. Lastly, it is CEOs’ formal power rather than their informal power that plays a dominant role in promoting the persistence of debt policy.     

Switch or persevere? The effects of experience and metacognition on persistence decisions

This paper extends the scholarly understanding of entrepreneurial persistence decisions by identifying individual-level constructs that moderate which decision criteria have the most influence on entrepreneurs’ persistence decisions. Prior research demonstrates that contextual factors, such as feedback through adversity and the attractiveness of opportunities in an entrepreneur’s environment, determine whether or not an entrepreneur will persist with their current venture. We contribute to this literature by theoretically proposing and empirically testing how individual differences in entrepreneurial experience, metacognitive experience, and metacognitive knowledge moderate which aspects of environmental information entrepreneurs pay the most attention to when deciding whether or not to persist. We test our proposed model using a conjoint experiment that allows for monitoring actual persistence decisions of 124 entrepreneurs. Results suggest that metacognitive knowledge influences persistence decisions primarily through altering the impact that probability of expected outcomes associated with potential alternatives has on entrepreneurs’ persistence decisions. Furthermore, the results provide evidence that more experienced entrepreneurs weigh financial returns and switching costs more heavily when making persistence decisions.     

Disaggregate evidence on the persistence of consumer price inflation

This paper uses disaggregate inflation data spanning all of consumption to examine: (i) the persistence of disaggregate inflation relative to aggregate inflation; (ii) the distribution of persistence across consumption sectors; and (iii) whether persistence has changed. Assuming mean inflation to be unchanged, disaggregate persistence inflation is consistently below aggregate persistence. Taking into account an early 1990s shift in mean inflation identified by break tests yields much lower estimates of both aggregate and disaggregate persistence for 1984–2002. But with the mean break, average disaggregate persistence is actually as great as aggregate inflation persistence. A factor model provides a natural framework for interpreting the relationship between aggregate and disaggregate persistence. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

坚持就是胜利吗?创业坚持的研究述评与展望

创业坚持是创业过程中的重要内容。尽管近几年国内学者对创业坚持的关注度逐渐升温,但仍处于起步阶段。本文在回顾国内外文献的基础上,首先,从逆境与挫折、外部机会视角阐明了创业坚持的内涵,并辨析了其与毅力、创业韧性的区别;其次,从创业者、企业和外部环境三个层面梳理了创业坚持的影响因素和影响过程;最后,从理性与非理性视角出发,指出创业坚持是一把双刃剑,在提高创业者的工作满意度和财富收入,以及促进企业创建、成长和企业绩效的同时,也可能引发遗憾和工作-家庭冲突。在此基础上,针对当前研究存在的不足与缺陷,提出未来研究应该从创业坚持的测量、影响因素、结果变量、边界条件、跨文化研究等方向做进一步探索。     

The Persistence and Forecast Accuracy of Earnings Components in the USA and Japan

Not all components of earnings are expected to provide similar information regarding future earnings. For example, basic financial statement analysis indicates that the persistence of ordinary income should be greater than the persistence of special, extraordinary, or discontinued operations. Because the market assigns higher multiples to earnings components that are more persistent, differentiating earnings components on the basis of relative persistence would appear to be useful. A focus on relative predictive value is consistent with research findings and user recommendations on separating earnings components that are persistent or permanent from those that are transitory or temporary. This paper examines the persistence and forecast accuracy of earnings components for retail and manufacturing companies listed in the world's two largest equity markets; the USA and Japan. We find the forecast accuracy of earnings in both the USA and Japan increases with greater disaggregation of earnings components. The results further indicate that the improvements in forecast accuracy due to earnings disaggregation are greater in the USA than in Japan. The greater emphasis and more detailed guidelines for reporting earnings components in the USA produce a better differentiation in the persistence of earnings components resulting in greater forecast improvements from earnings disaggregation.     

On the robustness of persistence in mutual fund performance

This paper analyzes persistence in US equity mutual fund performance over the period 1990–2015. We apply commonly used measures of persistence, which we test using a set of simulated passive funds. In the first stage we apply contingency tables and transition matrices in accordance with previous literature. Results show how these methodologies are biased towards finding evidence of persistence too easily. In the second stage, we take a recursive portfolio approach, which assesses the performance of investing by following recommendations based on past performance. Results show the importance of both estimating persistence by distinguishing among fund style groups, and considering the cross-sectional significance of recursive portfolios. In general, our results support evidence of persistence in mutual fund performance, especially for the case of the best mutual funds. However, this evidence does not hold for the most recent subperiod, 2008–2015. Empirical evidence of persistence is conditioned by the sample period, a result that could explain the inconclusive results found in the literature.     

On the predictability of the distribution of excess returns in currency markets

This paper investigates the predictability of foreign exchange (FX) volatility and liquidity risk factors on returns to the carry trade, an investment strategy that borrows in currencies with low interest rates and invests in currencies with high interest rates. Previous studies have suggested that this predictability could have been spuriously accounted for due to the persistence of the predictors. The analysis uses a predictive quantile regression model developed by Lee (2016) that allows for persistent predictors. We find that predictability changes remarkably across the entire distribution of currency excess returns. Predictability weakens substantially in the left tail once persistence is accounted for, implying a moderate negative predictive relation between FX volatility risk and carry trade returns. By contrast, it becomes stronger in the right tail. Furthermore, we provide evidence that FX volatility risk still dominates liquidity risk after controlling for persistence. These findings suggest that the persistence of the predictors needs to be taken into account when one measures predictability in currency markets. Finally, out-of-sample forecast performance is also presented.     

金融时间序列高阶矩的时变性与波动持续性研究

波动持续性与非对称性是二阶矩方差的两个典型特征,类似于方差风险。高阶矩风险也具有自己的特征。重点讨论了三阶矩偏度与四阶矩峰度的时变性特性与波动持续性特征,指出不仅方差具有波动持续性,而且高阶矩序列同样存在持续性,并给出了高阶矩存在持续性的定义以及波动的持续性定理的相关证明。     

The persistence of economic profit

Recently, as practitioners and researchers from developed countries have increasingly probed the activities of emerging economies, what exactly drives the long-term economic profitability of firms in China has become the most salient issue in the above fields. However, a study dedicated to the persistence analysis of profitability differentials among firms in China has not yet been proposed. This study thus employs China’s business database to examine the persistence in the incremental components of the industry and firm effects on economic profitability and tests the hypotheses that conform to the conventional wisdom of relative rates of persistence. A persistence partitioning model is fitted to a new data set, and the results show that the incremental effects of industry on economic profitability persist longer than the incremental effects of the firm. In other words, the long-term competitive advantages of firms in China are more predictable and sustainable based on industry influences compared to firm factors. These findings support the predictions of industrial organization economics, and provide some implications for corporate strategy.     

开放式基金和基金家族业绩持续性研究

我国证券投资基金快速发展,从属于同一家基金管理公司的单个基金越来越多,形成基金家族。本文研究从单个基金和基金家族的整体两个层面,采用实证检验方法对其业绩持续性进行研究,研究表明我国开放式基金仅具有短期的业绩持续性,而基金家族的整体业绩不存在持续性,籍此结果提示投资者不应仅仅关注基金的短期业绩,应更多关注基金的长期业绩表现,规避投资中对家族和规模的偏好,关注高价值基金,才能最大程度保障资金安全和自身的利益。     

Refining Stylized Facts from Factor Models of Inflation

Factor models of disaggregate inflation indices suggest that sectoral shocks generate the bulk of sectoral inflation variance, but no persistence. Aggregate shocks, by contrast, are the root of sectoral inflation persistence, but have negligible relative variance. We show that simple factor models do not cope well with essential features of price data. In particular, sectoral inflation series are subject to features such as measurement error, sales and item substitutions. In factor models, these blow up the variance of sector‐specific shocks, while reducing their persistence. We control for such effects by estimating a refined factor model and find that inflation variance is driven by both aggregate and sectoral shocks. Sectoral shocks, too, generate substantial inflation persistence. Both findings contrast with earlier evidence from factor models, but align well with recent micro evidence. Our results have implications for the foundations of price stickiness, and provide quantitative inputs for calibrating models with sectoral heterogeneity. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Retracted: Dynamics of Unclosed Triangles in Alliance Networks: Disappearance of Brokerage Positions and Performance Consequences

We depart from previous research on brokerage advantages in interorganizational networks by shifting focus to the dynamics of brokerage positions. We investigate causes of the disappearance of these positions and its influence on organizational performance. Using a subnetwork consisting of a broker and its two partners as the unit of analysis, we postulate that the brokerage position disappears either when the two partners develop ties or when the ties between the broker and the partners dissolve. We predict that the patterns of interactions in which this subnetwork is embedded exert multilevel influences on the disappearance, and that embedded structures promoting persistence constrain brokerage advantages. Our analysis of codeshare alliance data in the global airline industry supports the theory and demonstrates that the persistence of brokerage positions decreases broker performance. The findings explain why brokerage positions rarely persist and why the persistence of brokerage positions does not benefit brokers.     

Intergenerational mobility: New evidence from consumption data

The intergenerational persistence of consumption describes the extent to which children inherit the living standards of their parents. Evidence on this parameter is scarce due to limited data on the joint consumption of parents and children. This paper identifies parents who participated in the Danish Expenditure Survey, links them to their children through population‐wide Danish registries, and estimates the intergenerational elasticity of consumption in Denmark. The results suggest that, consistent with intergenerational consumption smoothing, the persistence of consumption across generations is higher than the persistence of earnings and income.     

Does unemployment hysteresis falsify the natural rate hypothesis? a meta‐regression analysis

Abstract.  A quantitative survey of 24 studies containing 99 national estimates of unemployment persistence reinstates unemployment hysteresis as a viable falsifying hypothesis to the natural rate hypothesis. Empirical evidence to the contrary may be attributed to small-sample, misspecification and publication biases. Larger estimates of unemployment persistence are produced by models that use more information ( t  = 9.03; P  < 0.0001) and are better specified. A theme of bias and misspecification among studies that are more supportive of natural rate hypothesis emerges in several independent ways. The nonstationarity of the unemployment rate is confirmed both by the observed rate of convergence of persistence estimates across the empirical literature and by the point towards which they converge. The natural rate hypothesis may be regarded as 'falsified' should we choose to do so.     

Cointegration tests of present value models with a time-varying discount factor

The paper analyses the impact of persistence and volatility in the discount rate in present-value models on cointegration tests in levels and in logarithms. In simulations we find that the probability of not rejecting the null of no cointegration depends on the persistence of the discount rate process and can be very high when the expected returns process is highly persistent. In contrast, the cointegration tests are very robust with respect to the level of volatility in the discount rate. We discuss the relevance of our findings for the US stock market where standard ADF tests do not reject the null of no cointegration between stock prices and dividends. Based on estimates of persistence in four asset pricing models, we find that a model which links expected returns to the dividend yield is sufficiently persistent to explain the failure of rejecting the null that stock prices and dividends are not cointegrated.     

Can portfolio adjustments explain deviations of consumption from permanent income?: An empirical study of UK data

It has become something of a stylized fact that the change in consumer spending exhibits persistence. This is often interpreted as indicating a violation of the rational expectations-permanent income (RE-PI) hypothesis. This paper considers an alternative interpretation: the observed persistence could be due to portfolio adjustments which push consumption away from its RE-PI path. Empirical support for this interpretation is provided using a UK data set.     

Aggregation is not the solution: the PPP puzzle strikes back

Recently, Imbs, Mumtaz, Ravn and Rey (2005, hereinafter IMRR) have argued that much of the purchasing power parity (PPP) puzzle is due to upwardly biased estimates of persistence. According to them, the source of the bias is the existence of heterogeneous price adjustment dynamics at the sectoral level that established time series or panel data methods fail to control for. This paper re‐examines this claim in two steps. Firstly, we demonstrate that IMRR's measures of sectoral persistence are systematically downwardly biased because they are based on an inaccurate definition of the ‘average’ impulse response function (IRF). We then show that standard estimates of shock persistence are recovered after this bias is corrected. Secondly, building on the results in Mayoral (2008), which prove that aggregate and micro models induce the same shock persistence behavior, we show that estimates based on aggregate and sectoral exchange rates are, in fact, highly consistent. Thus, aggregation is not the solution to the PPP puzzle. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.