Regime uncertainty and optimal investment timing

We construct a real options model in which a regime change is expected at a pre-determined future time and study the effects of regime uncertainty on a firm's strategic investment decision, taking into consideration the remaining time to the regime change and the probability of each regime state. We show that just before the time of a regime change, firms should act as if the worst-case scenario was about to happen, even if a good state is highly possible.     

Crises, portfolio flows, and foreign direct investment: An application to Turkey

We analyze how financial and economic crises affect the relation between the components of capital flows and their determinants in an emerging economy. Our results suggest that the composition of capital flows matters, crises can explain the volatility of portfolio flows and foreign direct investment, and modeling them as endogenous breakpoints improves the results considerably. By using data from the Turkish economy, we estimate these breakpoints together with the parameters of the model and find that they correspond to international and domestic crises that hit the country. Although both components are affected by similar crises, direct investment reacts strongly to the domestic crisis, while portfolios flows are more sensitive to global financial conditions. Breaks also have an effect on the significance and sign of determinants of each type of international investment. Evidence indicates changes in all coefficients in both investment types and suggests that analyses assuming parameter constancy lead to misleading results if they ignore the influence of endogenous breaks.     

Human capital, instability and foreign investment in transition economies

I argue that the West should lend money to the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe (FSUEE) to prevent excessive deterioration of its human capital stock. Such loans can improve the recipient countries' welfare by allowing them to enjoy the long-run benefits of a large human capital stock without incurring the costs of maintaining these stocks through lean economic times. The West can receive a fully competitive rate of return on these loans, and future foreign investors will be able to earn high rates of return by supplying physical capital to a newly stabilized FSUEE with abundant human capital.     

Production theory,uncertain prices and investment portfolios

This paper examines the allocative decisions of a competitive firm where input and output prices are uncertain and where the capital asset pricing model prevails. The firm behaves much as a profit maximizer under certainty, except that certainty equivalent prices formally replace the known prices. These certainty equivalent prices are composed of the expected price, the covariance of the price with the market (a measure of systematic risk) and a measure of risk aversion in the economy. Both static and comparative static propositions emerge in a natural way as extensions of standard, competitive and profit maximizing behavior. In addition, the model contains both the certainty case and the risk-neutral case as limiting examples.     

Regional trade agreement and foreign direct investment

This paper investigates the relationship between regional trade agreements, such as the NAFTA, and FDI. Using a fixed-effects gravity model to estimate OECD panel data spanning 1982–1997, we learn that trade integration encourages FDI. We find specific evidence for each of the NAFTA member countries—Mexico, Canada and the United States. In addition, we find evidence that FDI will rise with host and parent country GDP and fall with distance.     

Capital account liberalization and foreign direct investment

We examine the impact of capital account policies on FDI inflows. Using an annual panel dataset of 83 developing and developed countries for 1984-2000, we find that capital account openness is positively but only very moderately associated with the amount of FDI inflows after controlling for other macroeconomic and institutional measures. To a large extent, other country characteristics seem to determine FDI inflows instead of capital account policies. We also find that capital controls are easily circumvented in corrupt and politically unstable regimes. We conclude that liberalizing the capital account is not sufficient to generate increases in inflows unless it is accompanied by a lower level of corruption or a decrease in political risk.     

Political culture and foreign direct investment: The case of Italy

Does the political culture of an area have any impact on the foreign direct investment (FDI) decisions of multinational corporations (MNCs)? This question is difficult to address empirically, as locations differ in many dimensions. We therefore address this question by examining MNC investment location decisions with regard to different regions within a single country. The country we examine is Italy, which exhibits one of the highest levels of variation with regard to the political culture of its geographical regions. We find that political culture as represented by the pattern of support for political parties at different points on the political spectrum has a significant impact on the MNC investment location decision. Thus, in choosing between locations on a short list, where economic and financial location factors are roughly similar, political culture can have a determining influence. In the case of Italy, a Center-right orientation is conducive to MNC FDI, while a Center-left orientation is not. A Far-left orientation is found to have a very negative effect on FDI.     

Efficient and optimal programs when investment is irreversible: A duality theory

An attempt is made in this paper to formulate a satisfactory duality theory of efficient and optimal programs in intertemporal models with irreversible inveatment. The introduction of the constraint that depreciated capital stock cannot be used for present consumption makes the meaningful choice and interpretation of dual variables a more difficult problem, as is pointed out by means of an example. A new definition of a competitive program is introduced, and this is seen to lead to useful characterizations of efficient and optimal programs.     

COVID-19 stringency measures and foreign investment: An early assessment

This paper investigates the evolution of foreign investment in the immediate aftermath of the implementation of COVID-19 government stringency measures. The average stringency index is not correlated with inward investment positions. However, after removing country fixed-effect and controlling for the severity of the outbreak spread, the within-country standard deviation of the stringency index is positively and significantly correlated with inward portfolio investments, at the end of the first quarter of 2020. At the end of the second quarter, the same dispersion measure is instead not associated with a significant change in inward investment. We interpret this evidence as follows. Foreign portfolio investments, typically more volatile and reactive than foreign direct ones, are more responsive, at the end of the first quarter, to governments’ prompt interventions than to gradual ones, thus suggesting that the former policies are perceived as a more serious commitment to stem the spread of COVID-19. In the second quarter, instead, the standard deviation of the index captures the abrupt retreat of the containment measures, together with the timely adoption of policies, thus becoming less informative for foreign investors.     

Corporate financial determinants of foreign direct investment

Financial market incompleteness and (partial) segmentation of financial markets internationally may endow some firms with a financial advantage which can be exploited through foreign direct investment. We argue that this advantage appears as a distinct cost-of-capital effect on FDI, and identify possible channels for such an effect. Using a sample of European firms’ cross-border acquisitions, and controlling for traditional firm-level determinants of FDI, we find strong support for a cost-of-equity effect, whereas the effect of debt costs is indeterminate. Moreover, financial FDI determinants are more important for firms with high knowledge intensity and for firms resident in relatively less financially developed countries.     

US foreign direct investment,macro markets and labour relations: the case of enlarged Europe

The rise of macro markets such as the European Single market recalibrates the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and national locations. Previous research has ignored the impact of macro markets theoretically and empirically. The article therefore challenges conventional wisdom on the impact of national properties on FDI.     

Inbound foreign direct investment and domestic entrepreneurial activity

There is an interesting and lively debate going on in the academic literature intersecting trade policy and entrepreneurship. Several studies have shown that inbound foreign direct investment (FDI) has a negative effect on rates of entrepreneurship, while others find the opposite – a higher rate of new firm creation associated with increased inbound FDI. We study the phenomenon using a cross-country analysis of data on entrepreneurs from 38 countries and from 2001 to ? 2008. Results indicate that inbound FDI has negative associations with five types of entrepreneurship (nascent, new, early-stage, established, and high-growth) measured by the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor survey. In our discussion, we argue that our study supports the contention that studies counting new limited liability company registrations do not always measure the same thing as entrepreneurial entries (self-reports), leading to different, even opposite results when subjected to empirical analysis.     

Political events and the foreign direct investment decision: An empirical examination

This study investigates the impact of political events on US manufacturing direct investment in Latin America. The relationship between foreign direct investment and political events (and economic factors) is examined through regression analysis of pooled time-series (21 years) and cross-sectional (8 countries) data. In contrast to previous studies using an econometric approach, this study finds that political events do affect direct investment decisions. Specifically, both intra-nation and inter-nation conflict and co-operation have an impact on US direct investment decisions concerning Latin American countries. In addition, the host country's market size and market growth affect these decisions by US multinational firms.     

国际分工格局下的中国制造业与外资引入

文章首先概述了中国制造业的发展特征,在中国制造业日益纳入国际分工的格局下,对制造业的比较优势进行了实证分析,在此基础上明确分析了中国制造业"世界制造中心"的定位和国际竞争力,最后阐述了制造业在对外开放中外资引入的选择性吸收策略。     

Quality investment timing by the startup and the established firm

This study investigates quality investment timing decisions of the established firm and the startup by a duopoly model, where firms can position quality early (demand uncertainty is high) or late (uncertainty has been resolved), possibly at different costs. The startup positions quality to maximize its survival probability, whereas the established firm maximizes profits. Results indicate that the startup positions quality earlier than the established firm when the demand uncertainty is high and costs do not decline sharply over time. Additionally, policy analysis shows that subsidies work better than direct funds in encouraging quality innovation of the startup.     

利用外国直接投资的风险与防范

文章分析了外国直接投资的引入在促进我国经济发展的同时,也带来了行业垄断、技术依赖等风险,这些风险的存在增加了我国经济运行的不稳定性,并在对这些风险进行分析的基础上提出了相应的防范措施。     

The role of inward foreign direct investment on entrepreneurship

This paper investigates whether foreign firms had a positive impact on entrepreneurial activity measured by the net creation of firms. Using firm-level panel data for the Portuguese manufacturing and service industries over the period 1986 to 2000, we test whether the impact of foreign firms on firms’ entry depends on the number and size of previous foreign entrants. Overall, the results cast some doubts on the influence of foreign firms in assisting entrepreneurial activity. The impact of a first foreign investment is, in general, positive but the marginal impact of additional investments appears to be negative.     

The determinants of foreign direct investment: An analysis of US manufacturing industries

This study explores the determinants of foreign direct investment by analyzing the variation across US manufacturing industries in the extent of outward foreign direct investment. Three types of industry characteristics are hypothesized to explain this variation. Empirical support is found for four sources of ownership-specific advantages favoring foreign direct investment, new technology created through research and development, marketing abilities, organizational techniques and capital cost advantages. Support is found for the role of production scale economies in favoring centralization and hindering foreign direct investment, but results suggest only a weak role for transport costs in favoring decentralization and foreign direct investment. Producer concentration, perhaps reflecting oligopolistic competition, is positively related to foreign direct investment.     

外国直接投资的环保技术溢出途径研究--基于2004年中国工业企业普查数据的实证研究

减排技术的国际传播可以通过外国直接投资水平溢出和垂直溢出来实现。本文通过tobit模型实证研究,发现外国直接投资对减少污染排放的水平溢出比较有效,而垂直溢出方面总体较差,企业规模和所有制形式都是影响环保技术垂直溢出的主要因素。扩大外资的环保技术扩散效应,需要在全国执行更加严格的环保标准。