Convergence of Bayesian learning to general equilibrium in mis-specified models

A central unanswered question in economic theory is that of price formation in disequilibrium. This paper lays the groundwork for a model that has been suggested as an answer to this question in, particularly, Arrow [Toward a theory of price adjustment, in: M. Abramovitz, et al. (Ed.), The Allocation of Economic Resources, Stanford University Press, Stanford, 1959], Fisher [Disequilibrium Foundations of Equilibrium Economics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1983] and Hahn [Information dynamics and equilibrium, in: F. Hahn (Ed.), The Economics of Missing Markets, Information, and Games, Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1989]. We consider sellers that monopolistically compete in prices but have incomplete information about the structure of the market they face. They each entertain a simple demand conjecture in which sales are perceived to depend on the own price only, and set prices to maximize expected profits. Prior beliefs on the parameters of conjectured demand are updated into posterior beliefs upon each observation of sales at proposed prices, using Bayes’ rule. The rational learning process, thus, constructed drives the price dynamics of the model. Its properties are analysed. Moreover, a sufficient condition is provided, relating objectively possible events and subjective beliefs, under which the price process is globally stable on a conjectural equilibrium for almost all objectively possible developments of history.     

Entry and price dynamics in a perfect foresight model

This paper studies firms' entry and price dynamics in a model that combines the assumptions of free entry and perfect foresight with the hypothesis of consumer's loyalty postulated by Phelps and Winter. The analysis of the transition to long-run equilibrium reveals that, in such a model, the entry of firms is related to the difference between current prices and costs. In relation to the growth of the firms' output, it is shown that the model is consistent with Gibrat's Law. Finally, it is shown that the size distribution of firms approaches asymptotically a Pareto distribution.     

Household borrowing and metropolitan housing price dynamics – Empirical evidence from Helsinki

This article argues that, especially in the absence of sufficient direct data on credit constraints, it is reasonable to add a household debt variable in an empirical model studying housing price dynamics. This is because household borrowing is likely to reveal information regarding the credit constraints faced by households. Moreover, debt may also give information on expected income growth and interest rate movements. The aim of this study is to examine empirically if household borrowing data, indeed, is of importance in a dynamic housing price model. In line with the prior expectations, it is found that housing appreciation in the Helsinki Metropolitan area is Granger caused by the household debt-to-GDP ratio both in the short and in the long run. Causality from the housing market to credit, in turn, seems to run only through a cointegrating long-run relation. While the estimated long-run relation between housing prices, income and debt-to-GDP ratio appears to have remained stable through the sample period (1975Q1-2006Q2), the short-run dynamics changed somewhat due to the financial liberalization in the late 1980s. The stability of the long-run relation implies that the loan data are able to cater, at least to a notable extent, for the effect of the changes in Finnish households’ liquidity constraints on housing demand. In line with previous literature, it is also found that housing price adjustment is sluggish and includes notable backward-looking features.     

Subprime lending and the housing bubble: Tail wags dog?

The cause of the “housing bubble” associated with the sharp rise and then drop in home prices over the period 1998–2008 has been the focus of significant policy and research attention. The dramatic increase in subprime lending during this period has been broadly blamed for these market dynamics. In this paper we empirically investigate the validity of this hypothesis vs. several other alternative explanations. A model of house price dynamics over the period 1998–2006 is specified and estimated using a cross-sectional time-series data base across 20 metropolitan areas over the period 1998–2006. Results suggest that prior to early 2004, economic fundamentals provide the primary explanation for house price dynamics. Subprime credit activity does not seem to have had much impact on subsequent house price returns at any time during the observation period, although there is strong evidence of a price-boosting effect by investor loans. However, we do find strong evidence that a credit regime shift took place in late 2003, as the GSE’s were displaced in the market by private issuers of new mortgage products. Market fundamentals became insignificant in affecting house price returns, and the price-momentum conditions characteristic of a “bubble” were created. Thus, rather than causing the run-up in house prices, the subprime market may well have been a joint product, along with house price increases, (i.e., the “tail”) of the changing institutional, political, and regulatory environment characteristic of the period after late 2003 (the “dog”).     

Locally stable price mechanisms

This paper develops necessary conditions for a price adjustment mechanism to achieve local stability at regular competitive equilibria. Two principal questions are: how closely must a locally stable mechanism be tailored to particular excess demand functions, and can any such mechanism be interpreted as a market adjustment process. In response to the first question, a variant of the (local) Newton method, termed the ‘orthogonal Newton method’ is shown to require, in a dimensional sense, the minimal information about excess demand functions. The second question is answered in the negative by proving the non-existence of any locally stable mechanism with the property that the price of any given commodity is not changed when its own market is in equilibrium. These and other results are obtained by using convergent price paths to generate a homotopy between the adjustment dictated by the mechanism and the actual direction of the equilibrium.     

An analysis of the effect of noise in a heterogeneous agent financial market model

Heterogeneous agent models (HAMs) in finance and economics are often characterised by high dimensional nonlinear stochastic differential or difference systems. Because of the complexity of the interaction between the nonlinearities and noise, a commonly used, often called indirect, approach to the study of HAMs combines theoretical analysis of the underlying deterministic skeleton with numerical analysis of the stochastic model. However, it is well known that this indirect approach may not properly characterise the nature of the stochastic model. This paper aims to tackle this issue by developing a direct and analytical approach to the analysis of a stochastic model of speculative price dynamics involving two types of agents, fundamentalists and chartists, and the market price equilibria of which can be characterised by the stationary measures of a stochastic dynamical system. Using the stochastic method of averaging and stochastic bifurcation theory, we show that the stochastic model displays behaviour consistent with that of the underlying deterministic model when the time lag in the formation of price trends used by the chartists is far away from zero. However, when this lag approaches zero, such consistency breaks down.     

The demand for rental housing: Evidence from the Housing Allowance Demand Experiment

This paper provides new evidence on the price and income elasticities of demand for rental housing by low income households. Housing expenditures of households participating in the Housing Allowance Demand Experiment and receiving housing allowances in the form of a proportional rent rebate are analyzed. These rent rebates experimentally vary the effective relative price of housing and thus enable estimation of the price elasticities. Natural income variation enables estimation of income elasticities. Analysis is carried out using two functional forms and a variety of models of housing dynamics. The estimated income and price elasticities of demand are 0.36 and −0.22, respectively. When the sample is restricted to include only households headed by couples, the elasticity estimates are 0.47 for income and −0.36 for price. These estimates are lower (in absolute value) than have been previously estimated and it is suggested that this may be due to the low-income nature of the sample.     

The myth of flexibility in organizational change

In this article we examine the complex nature of organizational flexibility. We question the myth of flexibility as exclusively a top management interpretation of constant adaptiveness to environmental change by exploring the various rigidities involved in a seemingly adaptive organization. Our long-term study of a major Finnish commercial bank under deregulation identified several dominant forms of temporal flexibility–rigidity configurations: formal rigidities, flexible rigidities, rigid flexibilities and defensive rigidities. These configurations were revealed by focusing on the structural tensions which emerge between different levels of management and on the different interpretations given by competing groups to the notion of “organizational flexibility” within a process of change.     

Animal spirits and unemployment: a disequilibrium analysis

The past decade has seen a number of advances in modelling disequilibrium dynamics. This paper draws on separate approaches to disequilibrium dynamics to demonstrate a Keynesian result concerning the formal relevance of “animal spirits” in production economies. Specifically, it is shown that a parameter that can be associated with the “animal spirits” of firms is crucial to the stability of full employment equilibrium in a production economy. This approach to “animal spirits” is different to that taken by recent New Keynesian DSGE-type models, but similar in spirit to “Old Keynesian” approaches, including that of the General Theory. The corollary of the main conclusion is that price flexibility is not a sufficient condition for convergence on full employment equilibrium.     

Production location and random input price

The purpose of this paper is to develop systematically the theory of plant location for a competitive firm facing random input price. It will be shown that the impact of input price uncertainty on the firm's optimum location depend crucially upon (i) the firm's attitude toward risk, (ii) the characteristics of the production function, (iii) the structure of transport costs on inputs and output, and (iv) the type of input usages. Moreover, and more importantly, some conclusions obtained by prior studies on location theory in a certainty world can also be shown to be special cases of our more general results, but some are not justifiable in a world with random input price.     

Individual Performance in Turbulent Environments: The Role of Organizational Learning Capability and Employee Flexibility

Organizational learning capability (OLC) and employee flexibility help firms navigate the challenges faced by organizations operating in turbulent environments. OLC includes dimensions such as experimentation, risk taking, openness, dialogue, and participative decision making. Employee flexibility is considered a crucial tool for strategic human resource management in tackling environmental turbulence. Accordingly, we pose the following research question: how, and to what extent, is individual performance enhanced by OLC and employee flexibility in turbulent environments? The major impact that environmental turbulence has on change and flexibility requirements suggests that employee flexibility plays an important role in the impact OLC has on individual performance. However, we found no prior studies that explicitly analyzed this mediating function of employee flexibility. In this study, we tested three hypotheses that link OLC and individual performance, OLC and employee flexibility, and employee flexibility and individual performance. We applied a structural equation methodology, using partial least squares path modeling, to a sample of 174 academics at a Latin American university (a highly turbulent context). Our results show employee flexibility fully mediates the relation between OLC and individual performance given the presence of environmental turbulence. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

基于实物期权方法的企业并购价值评估

与传统的价值评估方法比较,基于实物期权理论的企业并购价值评估方法充分考虑了企业经营灵活性的价值。将该方法应用于实例,分析结果显示实物期权方法能够正确定价企业经营灵活性的价值,为企业价值评估提供了新思路。     

What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent–price ratio

We apply the dynamic Gordon growth model to the housing market in 23 US metropolitan areas, the four Census regions, and the nation from 1975 to 2007. The model allows the rent–price ratio at each date to be split into the expected present discounted values of rent growth, real interest rates, and a housing premium over real rates. We show that housing premia are variable and forecastable and account for a significant fraction of rent–price ratio volatility at the national and local levels, and that covariances among the three components damp fluctuations in rent–price ratios. Thus, explanations of house-price dynamics that focus only on interest rate movements and ignore these covariances can be misleading. These results are similar to those found for stocks and bonds.     

A Housing Career Perspective on Risk

The main question analyzed in the article is how uncertainty in the asset price of owner-occupied housing capital affects user costs and consequently housing demand. The analysis is performed within the framework of a dynamic model of planned housing careers. Owner-occupied housing has a dual role as both an asset and a consumption good—a consumption good both now and in the future. By holding owner-occupied housing capital, the risk associated with future purchase of housing can be reduced. Taking account of this, it is shown that the risk premium in the user cost is negative for consumers on a sufficient increasing path of future housing consumption. Hence, the demand for owner-occupied housing of a risk-averse consumer can be increasing in asset price volatility. This result is contrary to the “conventional wisdom” in housing economics and can be identified only within an analytical framework that takes account of the dynamic aspects of housing market behavior.     

Some reflections on past and future of nonlinear dynamics in economics and finance

This paper offers an overview of the literature on the economic and financial applications of theory of nonlinear dynamics, especially bifurcation theory. After a short introductory discussion of the first nonlinear dynamic models in social sciences and the economic relevance of the zoo of bifurcations and complicated dynamics that such models can generate, we present an overview of the literature on nonlinear dynamic models in the areas of underdevelopment, environmental poverty traps, the management of common goods, industrial organization and financial markets. The review of the literature is enriched by reflections and ideas for future research.     

Hedonic price and depreciation indexes for residential housing: A longitudinal approach

An equilibrium price relation is derived for price changes in durable goods capable of generating a hedonic, or quality-corrected, price index, and an index of depreciation. The structure proposed is applicable particularly to housing markets, where longitudinal, or repeat-sale data are readily available from assessment or real estate sources. The separation permits not only the construction of a true price index, but also allows tests of various functional forms for depreciation, notably the geometric function. As an application of the proposed structure, estimates are presented for single-family dwellings in surburban London, Ontario, 1967–1975.     

The Substitution Theorem in Urban Consumer Theory

This paper presents two nonparametric approaches to urban household location theory. For each model two sets of own price substitution theorems are presented, one for goods whose prices vary spatially and one for goods whose prices do not vary spatially in the market area. The usual substitution theorem derived in nonspatial demand theory is seen to hold for goods whose prices do not vary spatially. Goods whose prices vary spatially, however, reveal a significant departure from standard demand theory in that the substitution theorem is shown to hold unambiguously only for "parallel" shifts in spatial price surfaces. Further, the results are robust, extending to consumers in nonmonocentric urban areas, regardless of consumer tastes for travel distance or labor/leisure choice complications.     

Impact of investor’s varying risk aversion on the dynamics of asset price fluctuations

While investors’ responses to price changes and their price forecast have been identified as one of the major factors contributing to large price fluctuations in financial markets, our study shows that investors’ heterogeneous and dynamic risk aversion (DRA) preferences may play a more critical role in understanding the dynamics of asset price fluctuations. We allow an agent specific and time-dependent risk aversion index in a popular power utility function with constant relative risk aversion to construct our DRA model in which we made two key contributions. We developed an approximated closed-form price setting equation, providing a necessary framework for exploring the impact of various agents’ behaviors on the price dynamics. The dynamics of each agent’s risk aversion index is modeled by a bounded random walk with a constant variance, and such dynamics is incorporated in the price formula to form our DRA model. We show numerically that our model reproduces most of the “stylized” facts observed in the real data, suggesting that dynamic risk aversion is an important mechanism for understanding the dynamics of the financial market and the resultant financial time series.     

Another look at sticky prices and output persistence

Price rigidity is the key mechanism for propagating business cycles in traditional Keynesian theory. Yet the new Keynesian literature has failed to show that sticky prices by themselves can effectively propagate business cycles. We show that price rigidity in fact can (by itself) give rise to a strong propagation mechanism in standard models, provided that investment is also subject to a cash-in-advance constraint. Reasonable price stickiness can generate highly persistent, hump-shaped movements in output under either monetary or non-monetary shocks. Hence, whether or not price rigidity is responsible for output persistence is not a theoretical question, but an empirical one.     

On the asymptotic behavior of stochastic economic processes : Two examples from intertemporal allocation under uncertainty

Some of the recently developed models to deal with economic problems involving uncertainty are based on simplifying assumptions on the nature of the stochastic law of the environment influencing economic decisions. Relying on the theory of martingales, we derive some general results on the asymptotic behavior of two dynamic processes that are of interest in the theory of intertemporal resource allocation. The first example is related to the ‘turnpike’ theory of optimal allocation. The second is addressed to the question of allocation of a scarce resource by using prices when the supply of the resource is random.