应用写作课延伸教学的思考

仅靠写作课教学来提高学生的写作能力,客观上存在局限性。其只能是对常用应用文体的基础知识和基本写作技法的传授和训练,难以全面提高学生的写作能力。而通过写作课延伸教学,利用人文选修课、校园文化活动以及社团活动,在丰富学生的人文修养,进一步锻炼学生的思维能力,提高其综合素质的同时,也有利于学生写作能力的培养和提高。     

Do Charitable Solicitations Matter? A Comparative Analysis of Fundraising Methods*

The existing literature either treats fundraising as an aggregate variable by ignoring the existence of several different fundraising methods through which charitable contributions are generated or focuses on the effectiveness of a particular fundraising method without making any comparison with alternative methods. Using biennial household surveys of charitable giving in the United States conducted from 1988 to 1999, which contain detailed questions on several fundraising methods, I first document that people are more responsive to certain fundraising methods. Next, I investigate the factors associated with donors' responsiveness to alternative fundraising techniques. The results show that several observable characteristics of charitable donors are associated with some people being more responsive to particular fundraising techniques than others are.     

Review of Categorical Models for Classification Issues in Accounting and Finance

Recent studies have extensively used the logit or probit models for classification problems in accounting and finance. More than 289 articles in prestigious journals have used these or similar methods from 1989 through 1996. This paper reviews several categorical techniques and compares the performance of logit or probit with alternative procedures. Intuitive and mathematical explanations of how the models examined differ in terms of underlying assumptions and other attributes are provided. The alternative techniques are applied to two substantive research questions: predicting bankruptcy and auditors' consistency judgements. Four empirical criteria provide some evidence that the exponential generalized beta of the second kind (EGB2), lomit, and burrit (all new to the accounting and finance literature) improve the log-likelihood functions, and the explanatory power, compared with logit and other models. EGB2, lomit and burrit also provide significantly better classifications and predictions than logit and other techniques.     

Forward Foreign Exchange Rates,Expected Spot Rates,and Premia: A Signal-Extraction Approach

In this paper, we implement a methodology to identify and measure premia in the pricing of forward foreign exchange that involves application of signal-extraction techniques from the engineering literature. Diagnostic tests indicate that these methods are quite successful in capturing the essence of the time-series properties of premium terms. The estimated premium models indicate that premia show a certain degree of persistance over time and that more than half the variance in the forecast error that results from the use of current forward rates as predictors of future spot rates is accounted for by variation in premium terms. The methodology can be applied straightforwardly to the measurement of unobservables in other financial markets.     

A comparison of the relative costs of financial distress models: artificial neural networks,logit and multivariate discriminant analysis

This study uses two artificial neural networks (ANNs), categorical learning/instar ANNs and probabilistic (PNN) ANNs, suitable for classification and prediction type issues, and compares them to traditional multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA) and logit to examine financial distress one to three years prior to failure. The results indicate that traditional MDA and logit perform best with the lowest overall error rates. However, when the relative error costs are considered, the ANNs perform better than traditional logit or MDA. Also, as the time period moves farther away from the eventual failure date, ANNs perform more accurately and with lower relative error costs than logit or MDA. This supports the conclusion that for auditors and other evaluators interested in early warning techniques, categorical learning network and probabilistic ANNs would be useful. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tick size, the compass rose and market nanostructure

Economists have begun using methods borrowed from the physical sciences to search for non-linearities in economic and financial data. The so-called phase portrait from chaos theory, in which the values of a time-series are plotted against their delayed values, is one of the techniques employed for this purpose. It has recently been shown, however, that when returns on traded assets are plotted in this manner in two- or three-dimensional space, surprising patterns arise which seriously distort the conclusions that can be drawn about the underlying data. These patterns – which resemble a compass rose – reflect the microstructure of the market or, more specifically, the finite size of the “ticks” by which prices can change in a market.The present paper clarifies the reason for this phenomenon. It is shown that within the microstructure there exists nanostructure that becomes visible only when the computations are performed without approximation. High frequency data from a foreign exchange market are used to illustrate this phenomenon.     

终极股东特征、公司多元化与融资约束

理论研究表明公司多元化经营形成的内部资本市场有助于缓解公司所面临的融资约束,不同的终极股东特征可能由于代理问题或由于加强内部资本市场功能而减弱或增强缓解公司融资约束的作用。本文以2004～2009年中国上市公司作为样本,实证考察不同终极股东特征下,非国有控制公司与国有控制公司多元化经营战略缓解公司融资约束的作用是否存在显著差异。实证结果表明当终极股东现金流权与控制权不偏离,或者当终极股东控制链层级较多时,非国有控制公司多元化缓解融资约束的作用显著强于国有控制公司。然而,当终极股东现金流权与控制权偏离,或者当终极股东控制链层级较少时,国有控制公司多元化缓解融资约束的作用并没有显著强于非国有控制公司。     

Entrepreneurs' facial trustworthiness,gender, and crowdfunding success

This study examines whether and how entrepreneurs' facial trustworthiness is associated with the success of their crowdfunding campaigns. We adopt a novel dataset extracted from the Kickstarter crowdfunding platform and employ machine learning-based facial detection techniques to construct a comprehensive index that measures facial trustworthiness for our investigation. Our results suggest that entrepreneurs' facial trustworthiness is positively associated with crowdfunding campaign success. Specifically, trustworthy-looking entrepreneurs receive a 13.1% greater pledge amount and attract 4.8% more backers in their crowdfunding campaign as compared to those who are untrustworthy-looking. We also find that the facial trustworthiness of female entrepreneurs plays a more prominent role in determining project success than that of male entrepreneurs. Our results are robust to a series of additional analyses and sensitivity checks. Overall, the results of our study suggest that entrepreneurs' facial trustworthiness is an important factor that affects funders' decision-making process in reward-based crowdfunding.     

Developing an abduction-based method for futures research

Futures research is an established field of knowledge with a wealth of methods and techniques. However, foresight, future outlooks and scenarios are, as a rule, based on inductivist or deductivist methods, making looking into the future a form of conservative projecting of past and present probabilities onto the road of development lying ahead of us. Closed past or present outlooks give birth to open futures, but these futures usually are little more than exercises in organizational learning. In this paper we present and develop a method for futures research that is based on abductive logic. Abduction-based futures research approach proceeds from closed, imaginary future states to alternative, open theoretical frameworks or explanations. Unlike inductivists and deductivists believe, this procedure from the unknown to the known is rational, and therefore something that can be systematized and learned. There is a logic of discovery, and what could be a better place to apply and develop it than futures research.     

INTEGRATION OF RANDOM SAMPLE SELECTION,SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINES AND ENSEMBLES FOR FINANCIAL RISK FORECASTING WITH AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ON THE NECESSITY OF FEATURE SELECTION

Financial risk forecasting (FRF) is an effective tool to help people forecast whether or not a company will fail in future. Among all techniques of FRF, the support vector machine (SVM) is the most newly developed, and one of the most accurate and effective techniques. This study is devoted to investigating an ensemble model of FRF by integrating bagging with an SVM to generate a data‐driven SVM ensemble. Bagging is used to produce diverse training datasets on which multiple SVM classifiers are trained to make FRF for a target company. Simple voting is employed to produce a final decision from the SVM model committee. The empirical study has two objectives. One is to verify whether the data‐driven SVM ensemble can produce a more dominating performance than the most frequently used techniques in the area of FRF, i.e. multivariate discriminant analysis, logistics regression and a single SVM. The other is to verify whether feature selection is necessary to help the SVM make more precise FRF, although the SVM can handle high‐dimensional data. The results indicate that the data‐driven SVM ensemble significantly improves the predictive ability of SVM‐based FRF. Meanwhile, feature selection can effectively help the SVM achieve better predictive performance, which means that use of feature selection is necessary in SVM‐based FRF. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting, backcasting, migration landscapes and strategic planning maps

Forecasting and backcasting are both useful techniques for futures strategic planning. However, attempting to integrate these is problematic as the former constrains what the latter can achieve. Here, development of strategic planning maps to mediate this transition is suggested. These are based on the development of migration landscapes that span the gap between projected trends and aspirational futures, highlighting those intermediate events or indicators that will indicate realisation. This allows the determination of intermediate states assuring viability during the transition and the opportunity to respond to changes in the environment. As such, decision makers can better manage risk and so make better informed decisions.     

Strategic orientation,organisational structure,and the associated effects on performance

The paper presents an investigation of the structural characteristics of firms' strategic orientation (as conceptualised by Miles and Snow (1978)). The associated relationships to profitability and perceived market share are studied in financial services firms, specifically in credit unions. The author finds that most firms have a mixed structural form, with fewer firms being either highly structured or lowly structured. Defenders are more likely than expected to be of mixed structural form and less likely to be highly structured. Prospectors are more likely than expected to be highly structured. Analysers are more likely than expected to be highly structured. Reactors show little variation from the expected distribution. No interaction of structure and strategy is evident on either share or profits. The results do indicate that strategic orientation has an influence on perceived market share, but not profitability. Reactors are shown to have significantly smaller market shares than the Prospectors, Analysers, and Defenders. Also, Defenders are shown to have smaller shares than Prospectors. On the other hand, structural form is shown to have an influence on profitability. The less structured firms are shown to be more profitable than either the highly structured or mixed structure firms. It appears, at least in this sample, that organisational structure is more relevant to profitability, while organisational strategy is more relevant to market share.     

State pricing,effectively complete markets,and corporate finance

Event study, panel regression, and difference-in-difference techniques are among the most prominent research methodologies in corporate finance. However, these techniques are inappropriate if corporate events are anticipated to some degree, as most events are. This paper proposes options as an additional model-free source of information to identify the likelihood and impact of corporate events. We show how to quantify event impact in a simple example and assert that few restrictions on the state space are required for the approach to work in more complex settings.     

Race,redlining, and residential mortgage loan performance

Theories of discrimination in credit markets suggest that under certain circumstances systematic lender bias may result in creditors holding minority applicants or applicants from minority neighborhoods to higher standards of creditworthiness than other borrowers. This implies lower default rates or smaller dollar losses on loans to marginally qualified minority borrowers or borrowers from minority neighborhoods, compared to loans extended to other similarly qualified borrowers. This study seeks to test this prediction by examining the default-risk characteristics of FHA-insured single-family residential mortgages. All things equal, empirical findings fail to support the theoretical predictions that observed default rates are relatively lower among minority borrowers or neighborhoods.     

Cointegration, Efficiency and Forecasting in the Currency Market

Existing literature on using the cointegration approach to examine the efficiency of the foreign exchange market gives mixed results. Arguments typically focus on econometric testing techniques, with fractional cointegration being the most current one. This paper tries to look at the issue from an economic perspective. It shows that the cointegrating relationship, whether cointegrated or fractionally cointegrated, is found mainly among the currencies of the European Monetary System which are set to fluctuate within a given range. Hence, there is no inconsistency with the notion of market efficiency. Yet, exploiting such a cointegrating relationship is helpful in currency forecasting. There is some evidence that restricting the forecasting model to consist of only cointegrated currencies improves forecasting efficiency.     

Creditor protection,judicial enforcement and credit access

We investigate the impact of the legal system on whether firms obtain the credit they apply for or not. Data comprise unique information provided directly by 48,590 firms from 11 European countries. We look at the strength of creditor protection, the strength of property rights, the time taken to resolve a dispute, the dispute resolution process’s costs and the number of procedures the plaintiff faces using data provided by the World Bank and the Heritage Foundation. The results suggest that the more efficient the judicial enforcement system is, and the higher the creditor protection is, the lower the probability that the firms are partially or totally denied credit. Our results are robust to selection bias (Heckman selection) as well as different controls and different estimation techniques. We find that these variables have considerable economic impact: the probability of obtaining credit is up to 40% higher in countries with more robust legal systems.     

Broadening management accounting education: more theory,more practicality ∗

There are two widespread beliefs among management accountants. Management accounting should be practical, and education for doing the job the management accountant actually does should include topics which would require extensive training in theory. The two beliefs are not inconsistent. Management accounting education starting from theory and moving to its application could be far more practical than education without theory in applying predefined techniques.     

Professionalisation or incarceration? Household engineering, accounting and the domestic ideal

Social constructionist theories of gender are utilised to explore the relationship between household accounting and patriarchy during the early twentieth century in the USA and Britain. This period witnessed a reformulation of the ideology of domesticity founded on precepts derived from modish scientific management. It is argued that the suite of calculative techniques prescribed by ‘household engineers’ merely attempted to occupy middle class women in the domestic sphere. Rather than offering a source of professionalisation and liberation, the practice of financial management, costing, record keeping and time and motion study, contributed to a reassertion of private patriarchy, confirmed the gendered nature of spatiality, reinforced the role of woman as a consumer and diverted attention from career building outside the home.     

Earnings Volatility, Cash Flow Volatility, and Informed Trading

I examine whether earnings that are smoother or more volatile than cash flows provide or garble information. Consistent with theories that predict more informed trading when public information is less informative, I find that bid-ask spreads and the probability of informed trading are higher both when earnings are smoother than cash flows and also when earnings are more volatile than cash flows. Additional tests suggest that managers' discretionary choices that lead to smoother or more volatile earnings than cash flows garble information, on average. However, I find that informed trading is attenuated in settings in which theory suggests that discretionary smoothing or volatizing of earnings is likely to be informative.     

Early cost management practices, state ownership and market competition: the case of the Royal Textile Mill of Guadalajara, 1717-44

Existing literature on the deployment of cost techniques in early public sector organizations largely relies on archival evidence gathered from late eighteenth and nineteenth-century settings. Arguably, these contexts are characterized by a number of idiosyncratic characteristics that advise caution in generalizing conclusions beyond the institutional elements that forged those settings. Our investigation examines the case of the Royal Textile Mill of Guadalajara (RTM), a setting characterized by state ownership, competitive markets, organization of production around medieval guilds, and recruitment of foreign experts to conduct productive operations. Our findings show that the management of RTM deployed cost accounting techniques that comprised aspects such as control of raw materials and waste, control of labour and management, and allocations of overhead to product costing. We also find evidence which departs from predictions that standards relating to the control of raw materials should have preceded the implementation of labour cost standards.