Risk-Based Premiums for Insurance Guaranty Funds

Insurance guaranty funds have been adopted in all states to compensate policyholders for losses resulting from insurance company insolvencies. The guaranty funds charge flat premium rates, usually a percentage of premiums. Flat premiums can induce insurers to adopt high-risk strategies, a problem that can be avoided through the use of risk-based premiums. This article develops risk-based premium formulas for three cases: a) an ongoing insurer with stochastic assets and liabilities, b) an ongoing insurer also subject to jumps in liabilities (catastrophes), and c) a policy cohort, where claims eventually run off to zero. Premium estimates are provided and compared with actual guaranty fund assessment rates.     

Optimal Portfolios with Credit Default Swaps

Using a continuous-time, stochastic, and dynamic framework, this study derives a closed-form solution for the optimal investment problem for an agent with hyperbolic absolute risk aversion preferences for maximising the expected utility of his or her final wealth. The agent invests in a frictionless, complete market in which a riskless asset, a (defaultable) bond, and a credit default swap written on the bond are listed. The model is calibrated to market data of six European countries and assesses the behaviour of an investor exposed to different levels of sovereign risk. A numerical analysis shows that it is optimal to issue credit default swaps in a larger quantity than that of bonds, which are optimally purchased. This speculative strategy is more aggressive in countries characterised by higher sovereign risk. This result is confirmed when the investor is endowed with a different level of risk aversion. Finally, we solve a static version of the optimisation problem and show that the speculative/hedging strategy is definitely different with respect to the dynamic one.     

基于损失分布的产险公司保险保障基金构成机制研究

保险保障基金制度是为了确保保单持有人利益和完善保险企业退出机制而建立的特殊制度。保险保障基金的筹集是保险保障基金制度的核心内容,它直接关系到保险保障基金制度的有效运行。本文以产险公司为例,通过拟合损失分布,从保单定价的盈亏平衡原理和产险公司实际偿付能力出发,给出了产险公司破产时,保险保障基金的期望损失计算公式,并提出相关参数的估计方法,对建立保险保障基金的风险缴纳比例机制有一定的借鉴意义。     

Credit Risk in Private Debt Portfolios

Default, loss severity, and average loss rates for a large sample of privately placed bonds are presented and compared with loss experience for publicly issued bonds. The chance of very large portfolio losses is estimated and some determinants of such losses are analyzed. Results show ex ante riskier classes of private debt perform better on average than public debt. Both diversification and the riskiness of individual portfolio assets influence the bad tail of the portfolio loss distribution. Private placements are similar to corporate loans in that both are monitored private debt. The results are thus relevant to management and securitization of private debt portfolios generally.     

Modeling of Contagious Credit Events and Risk Analysis of Credit Portfolios

We present a new model of the occurence of credit events such as rating changes and defaults for risk analyses of some portfolio credit derivatives. The framework of our model is based on a so-called top-down approach. Specifically, we first consider modeling the point process of each type of credit event in the whole economy using a self-exciting intensity process. Next, we characterize the point processes of credit events in the underlying sub-portfolio using random thinning processes specified by the distribution of credit ratings in the sub-portfolio. One of the main features of our model is that the model can capture credit risk contagion simultaneously among several credit portfolios. We present a credit event simulation algorithm based on our model and illustrate an application of the model to risk analyses of loan portfolios.     

Capital, Portfolio, and Growth: Bank Behavior Under Risk-Based Capital Guidelines

This paper examines banks' capital, portfolio and growth decisions from 1986 to 1995, when risk-based capital guidelines were proposed and implemented. Overall, we observe complementarity between equity financing and risk. We find no systematic differences in pre- and postregulation behavior consistent with banks reacting to risk-based capital standards implementation. We do find significant differences, however, between low-capital banks and other banks. For example, increases in equity generally do not lead to increases in assets unless the bank has low capital. We also find that the impact of regulatory variables, such as the ratio of equity to total assets or the of ratio risk-weighted assets to total assets, have the predicted, significant effects for low-capital banks but not necessarily for other banks.     

Procyclicality: The Macroeconomic Impact of Risk-Based Capital Requirements

Recent research on the Basel II capital framework suggests that binding capital requirements may be responsible for bank behaviour which causes procyclical amplifications of the macroeconomic cycle. This paper presents a model of the interrelations between the state of the economy, credit risk, and loan supply to clarify and quantify this effect. Special attention is paid to the fact that both regulatory and economic capital requirements can significantly influence loan supply, provided that they are binding. The model shows that both economic capital, based on a one-factor model, and the regulatory IRB requirements cause more procyclicality than the constant regulatory requirements of the Basel I capital accord. However, the overall impact depends on the interrelation of the regulatory requirements with economic capital. Based on this result, the replacement of the Basel I requirements with risk-sensitive IRB capital requirements boosts procyclicality under most, but not under all conditions.     

Comparison of Mean-Risk Efficient Portfolios in Asia-Pacific Capital Markets

In order to analyze the performance of mean-risk efficient portfolios, several methods of portfolio comparison have been developed. In this paper we analyze the second-order stochastic dominance efficiency of portfolios on the mean-risk efficient frontier assuming that the risk is represented by standard deviations and concordance matrices set up on the basis of Pearson's linear correlation, Spearman's rho, or Kendall's tau. Empirical analysis of the market returns of selected Asia-Pacific stock markets is carried out considering both the U.S. dollar and euro as reference currencies, and different periods: before and during the subprime crisis. Measures and portfolios on the mean-risk efficiency frontier that should be of interest to at least one risk-averse investor are empirically documented.     

Credit Ratings and Capital Structure

This paper examines to what extent credit ratings directly affect capital structure decisions. The paper outlines discrete costs (benefits) associated with firm credit rating level differences and tests whether concerns for these costs (benefits) directly affect debt and equity financing decisions. Firms near a credit rating upgrade or downgrade issue less debt relative to equity than firms not near a change in rating. This behavior is consistent with discrete costs (benefits) of rating changes but is not explained by traditional capital structure theories. The results persist within previous empirical tests of the pecking order and tradeoff capital structure theories.     

履约保证保险与消费信贷

消费信贷业务作为一项独立、高效的优势金融产品，与银行公司业务齐头并进，正日益为各商业银行所瞩目，并逐渐成为银行经营系统中的重要资源。在大力发展这一业务时，其授信风险的防范、分散和转移自然也就成为各家银行所要研究的课题。正是顺应这一需要，银行个人消费信贷业务中的履约保证保险应运而出，并为各利益主体所接受，显现出其强大的生命活力。     

车贷险遭遇"滑铁卢"

车贷险的叫停并非偶然,从制度设计上看,风险与收益的不相称、权利与义务的漏洞导致了该险种的失败,而个人信用体系的缺失成为银行、保险未来继续车贷业务的主要顾虑和障碍.     

Limited Investment Capital and Credit Spreads

Using proprietary credit default swap (CDS) data, I investigate how capital shocks at protection sellers impact pricing in the CDS market. Seller capital shocks—measured as CDS portfolio margin payments—account for 12% of the time‐series variation in weekly spread changes, a significant amount given that standard credit factors account for 18% during my sample. In addition, seller shocks possess information for spreads that is independent of institution‐wide measures of constraints. These findings imply a high degree of market segmentation, and suggest that frictions within specialized financial institutions prevent capital from flowing into the market at shorter horizons.     

A Tractable Model to Measure Sector Concentration Risk in Credit Portfolios

We explore a simplified version of the value-at-risk approximation developed by Pykhtin (Risk Magazine, March, 85–90, 2004), which only requires risk parameters on a sector level. We measure the impact of credit concentrations in business sectors on the economic capital of credit portfolios. We base our portfolios’ sector composition on credit information from the German central credit register. Our results show that the approximation formula performs well for fine-grained portfolios that are homogeneous on a sector level in terms of probability of default (PD) and exposure size. We explore the robustness of our results for portfolios which are heterogeneous in terms of these two characteristics. We find that low granularity ceteris paribus causes the approximation formula to underestimate economic capital, whereas heterogeneity in individual PDs causes overestimation. Indicative results imply that in typical credit portfolios of banks, PD heterogeneity will at least compensate for the granularity effect. This result suggests that the approximation estimates economic capital reasonably well and/or errs on the conservative side.     

非零售类风险暴露信用风险模型的校准和主标尺开发

模型校准是将模型输出结果对应到真实的违约概率。本研究通过一个以违约概率为度量标准的主标尺,映射得到风险等级的过程。该过程引入了所有资产组合风险量化的统一标准。模型的校准和主标尺的设计开发是一个过程中相互联系的两个步骤,该过程受不同条件的约束,是一个多目标优化的问题。本文主要阐述了主标尺开发和模型校准的方法。     

信息攫取与出口信用保险发展:以中国出口信用保险公司为例

出口信用保险是规避收汇风险的有效途径,信息攫取则是发展出口信用保险的手段之一,对出口信用保险发展起到促进作用。当信息攫取、资本、国际贸易对出口信用保险发展的边际贡献率相同时,出口信用保险增长率达到稳态,并以一个稳定的速率增长。将出口信用保险纳入Ramsey模型,从信息攫取角度分析中国出口信用保险业发展,结论表明,无论长期还是短期,信息攫取对出口信用保险发展都存在显著影响。但出口信用保险行业的信息攫取力度仍有待加强。     

完善我国出口信用保险业务

开展出口信用保险有助于提升出口信用,我国自1989年开办出口信用保险业务以来,极大地推动了我国出口企业的信用度。但在出口信用保险业务的发展中,也存在管理机制不健全、风险资本金匮乏、出口信用风险评估体系不完善等问题。发展和完善我国的出口信用保险业务要从政府、承办机构及出口企业三个层面三管齐下。     

信贷融资中农村社会资本的信用价值

农业和农村经济发展面临巨大的信贷约束,究其原因,信用资源的匮乏是影响农村经济组织信贷融资的重要因素.而农村社会资本具有经济担保作用,从社会资本视角,对农村信贷融资的信用保障机制进行深入研究,探究农村社会资本的资金调配功能,通过农村社会资本的信用价值及其局限性分析,寻求农村金融体系重构的有效路径.     

中国保险业与国际资本的合作与发展

随着资本国际化趋势的日益加强,中目的保险市场加快了对外开放的步伐,保险业将不断增强与国际资本的合作。