Choice Modelling Approaches: A Superior Alternative for Environmental Valuatioin?

In this paper, we examine some popular 'choice modelling' approaches to environmental valuation, which can be considered as alternatives to more familiar valuation techniques based on stated preferences such as the contingent valuation method. A number of choice modelling methods are consistent with consumer theory, and its focus on an attribute‐based theory of value permits a superior representation of many environmental management contexts. However, choice modelling surveys can place a severe cognitive burden upon respondents and induce satisficing rather than maximising behavioural patterns. In this framework, we seek to identify the best available choice modelling alternative and investigate its potential to 'solve' some of the major biases associated with standard contingent valuation. We then discuss its use in the light of policy appraisal needs within the EU. An application to the demand for rock climbing in Scotland is provided as an illustration.     

On the use of semimartingales and stochastic integrals to model continuous trading

The continuous-time contingent claim valuation model is generalized to stopping times (random trading dates), giving substance to the question of what it means to have unlimited opportunities to trade while trading intercessions may occur only finitely, albeit arbitrarily, often. Robustness and stability of the contingent claim valuation formula are demonstrated, validating the use of continuous-time models for approximating discrete-time trading environments. The no-arbitrage value of a redundant contingent claim is shown to be a stochastic integral obtained as the limit of bounded arbitrage opportunities. As a corollary, we find that the hypothesis needed to value an American call option is significantly stronger than that sufficient to value a European call option.     

Dichotomous‐choice contingent valuation with ‘dont know’ responses and misreporting

A new approach is presented that simultaneously deals with Misreporting and Don't Know (DK) responses within a dichotomous‐choice contingent valuation framework. Utilising a modification of the standard Bayesian Probit framework, a Gibbs with Metropolis–Hastings algorithm is used to estimate the posterior densities for the parameters of interest. Several model specifications are applied to two contingent valuation datasets: one on wolf management plans, and one on the US Fee Demonstration Program. We find that DKs are more likely to be from people who would be predicted to have positive utility for the bid. Therefore, a DK is more likely to be a YES than a NO. We also find evidence of misreporting, primarily in favour of the NO option. The inclusion of DK responses has an unpredictable impact on willingness‐to‐pay estimates, since it impacts differently on the results for the two datasets we examine. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How can we correct for contingent valuation bias? A case study of the Macau Orchestra

The long‐standing contingent valuation method (CVM) is one of the most controversial techniques in economics. But it still remains the main means of assisting policymakers in understanding the preferences of ordinary citizens in valuing a range of non‐market goods believed to have positive external benefits. In the absence of viable alternatives, it is necessary that this method continues to be refined. This is especially important as CVM is increasingly being applied outside the area of environmental economics and outside the Western socio‐political context where theoretical advances have previously been made. This article examines three sources of bias in CVM in the context of valuing cultural goods: information, mixed good, and payment vehicle bias. A small case study of a publicly funded orchestra in an Asian city, the Macau Orchestra, is used to provide a preliminary exploration of the issues discussed.     

STATED PREFERENCES FOR PUBLIC SERVICES: A CLASSIFICATION AND SURVEY OF APPROACHES

The wider range of stated preference approaches to value public goods has not been systematically reviewed in recent years. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of this literature and to evaluate the strengths and limitations of alternative approaches. Since the public referendum has served as a ‘blueprint’ for survey design, two key dimensions by which many surveys differ from the public referendum are used for a simple classification of approaches. This yields eleven approaches, including different variants of micro-based demand surveys, referendum surveys, budget allocation surveys and contingent valuation surveys. Their evaluation in terms of the preference information they produce and the assumptions they require suggests there is no single preferred approach. Instead, each approach has its characteristic profile of strengths and limitations which follow from how it strikes the balance between the conflicting goals of measuring entire willingness-to-pay distributions and presenting manageable, credible and incentive compatible questions. Ultimately, judgments about the suitability of alternative approaches for specific objectives should rely on empirical evidence. Progress in the field could greatly benefit from a routine implementation of powerful experimental validity tests in applied work.     

基于公众角度的电子政务价值评估方法的研究

随着全球化和信息化的深入发展,推动政府信息化,积极发展电子政务,构建电子政府已经成为一个不可逆转的世界潮流,而电子政务绩效评估体系的不健全,客观上制约了电子政务的进一步深入发展。为合理解决这一问题,以经济学作为电子政务价值评估的基础,以条件价值评估的方法,站在公众角度,提出了一种基于公众的电子政务价值评估方法。     

Market undervaluation of risky convertible offerings: Evidence from the airline industry

We assess market valuation of airline convertible preferred stocks using a contingent claims valuation model that was extensively tested by Ramanlal et al. (Rev Quant Financ Account 10:303–319, 1998). Our sample consists of 4,096 daily price observations of 11 convertible preferred stocks issued by the U.S. airlines in 1980–1991. For each convertible we estimate daily model prices for 2 years after issuance and compare them with market prices by calculating pricing errors. While the entire sample’s mean pricing error is found to be negative 3.8%, the panel data analysis and the mean pricing errors of the sub-samples indicate that the undervaluation is much more severe in the first 6 months of trading. The results suggest that airlines leave about 10% on the table when they raise capital by issuing convertible securities.     

Quantitative evaluation of contingent capital and its applications

A new type of bank regulatory capital, known as contingent capital, has emerged in tandem with discussions on the BASEL III regulatory framework but there is a lack of consensus on a standard valuation approach among those proposed so far. We think that the practical solution is to be able to price these instruments seamlessly and consistently with other existing derivatives. We propose a novel and practical ⿿convertible bond approach⿿ which is theoretically consistent with existing frameworks such as Black⿿Scholes and is conceptually and technically similar to the pricing models already being used in practice for convertible bonds and hybrid securities. Such a model is reasonable as all of these asset classes are hybrid equity-credit instruments and share many characteristics. Also, contingent capital through its unique mechanisms such as principal loss absorption, presents interesting risk scenarios which may not be readily apparent or may appear counterintuitive. Contingent capital may thus, at first sight, appear to carry obscure risks but, we show that by taking a careful quantitative approach, we can understand the characteristics of such instruments in a concise manner. Further, for discussing the pricing in terms of characteristics of the issuer, one in turn, needs a concise framework to describe those characteristics in terms of Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio risk. Our framework describes CET1 ratio risk via three intuitive issuer parameters: target, volatility, and resilience. In spite of the exotic risks, an investment decision in contingent capital can be justified if a sufficient return is expected in compensation. In this paper, we present a valuation method based on hurdle Sharpe ratios that has direct implications for investment decision making in the context of expansion of investor's efficient frontier. We also demonstrate the usefulness of our framework as a daily pricing tool for market participants using empirical market data.We appreciate helpful comments from an anonymous referee and the editors of North American Journal of Economics and Finance. The view expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect views and policies of Nomura Securities.     

Political Tie Heterogeneity and the Impact of Adverse Shocks on Firm Value

Past research has recognized the contingent value of corporate political ties but largely neglects their heterogeneity. Drawing on the political embeddedness perspective and literature on emerging economy political institutions, we develop hypotheses regarding how political networks comprising managerial and government ownership ties may have different valuation effects in the face of adverse political shocks. Examining stock market responses to an unanticipated, high‐profile political event in China, we find a negative valuation effect of managerial ties to municipal government, but an insignificant effect of government ownership ties. Further, companies combining managerial and ownership ties experienced less post‐shock reduction in market value than those holding only managerial political ties. These findings shed light on the values of different configurations of corporate political ties and inform firms of potential ways to manage ubiquitous political hazards in emerging economies.     

Intertemporal price–quality discrimination and the Coase conjecture

We examine time-consistent intertemporal price–quality discrimination by a durable goods monopolist, when there are a continuum of buyer demand-intensities with respect to product quality, and it is profitable for the monopolist to trade with the marginal buyer-type (i.e., the “gap” case). We show that along every subgame perfect equilibrium path, with probability 1, prices and qualities decline over time, and the market is completely and monotonically depleted according to buyer-type in a finite number of offers. But, unlike the fixed quality literature, the monopolist may randomize over price–quality offers along the equilibrium path. We also show that the Coase conjecture continues to be valid here, but in a form that is significantly different from the usual formulation. In the limit, as the time between offers evaporates, the monopolist makes a continuum of offers and perfectly screens the market. However, he effectively cannot price-discriminate, because the equilibrium profits converge to the complete “pooling” profits that would be made if the entire market had the marginal buyer-type’s valuation.     

城市垃圾分类回收的认知及支付意愿调查——以西安市为例

通过对西安市主城区的实地调查,运用条件价值评估法(CVM)和二元logistic方法,对居民城市生活垃圾分类回收减量化管理的总经济价值及支付意愿的影响因素进行了分析。结果显示,研究范围内的居民对于5年内将西安市垃圾产量降低50%这项政策的平均支付意愿是11.56元/户.月(按5%修整均值),实现这项政策的总经济价值为11102821.51元/月(2009)。分析结果一方面能够使社会对城市生活垃圾分类回收的价值产生科学认识,表明垃圾分类回收使得人们在获得收益的同时还能够享受环境改善所带来的福利;另一方面可以为政府和社会投资提供参考依据。     

Facilitating sustainable development decisions: measuring stakeholder reactions

Sustainable development is an issue of increasing importance, in which organizations must engage multiple stakeholders and consider their objectives when deciding on organizational actions, but research provides little guidance regarding how managers can measure stakeholder reactions and use information to facilitate decision‐making. The broad objective of this study is to provide insights useful for decision‐making. In this study, we investigate in its natural and complex environment a real‐world sustainable development conflict – whether to expand energy development in Wyoming. The primary issue is the impact that expanding energy development will have on wildlife and the environment. We collect data from both the local community and a broader national population for use in a quantitative analysis. We use contingent valuation methods to capture the social impact ascribed by the stakeholders. We conclude with a discussion of how this information can be used ex ante to inform decision‐making for sustainable development. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Historical resources, uncertainty and preservation values: An application of option and optimal stopping models

State agencies and private historical organizations frequently acquire historical sites with unknown characteristics. In this paper, we provide two approaches to evaluating the preservation decision. In the first approach, we show that a historical site which is not permanently preserved provides citizens with a certain flexibility whose value can be measured as an option on the maximum between the current real estate value and the preservation value. In the second approach, we assume that the organization has an infinite planning horizon and chooses the optimal sale date. Using a contingent valuation estimate of the public's willingness to pay for preservation of a specific historical site and the real estate price, we provide simulation values of the preservation option value and the optimal stopping rule.     

The Operational Hedging Properties of Intangible Assets: the Case of Non–voluntary Foreign Asset Selloffs

In this paper we examine the valuation effects and long–term performance of US multinational firms involved in forced transfers of their foreign operating assets during the 1965–88 period. The evidence suggests that the operational hedging ability of the firm to address country risk (nationalization threats) is related to the level of its intangible assets. While it is well known that firms with high levels of intangible assets prefer foreign direct investment, our results show that intangible assets have hidden properties of protection against country risk as well. We document significantly negative abnormal returns only for divesting firms with low levels of intangible assets, but not for firms with high levels of intangible assets. In addition, we show that low (high) growth firms are involved in partial (complete) withdrawals, and show that the long–term economic performance of firms choosing the complete withdrawal strategy is better than those that opt to remain. We argue that management's attempt to maintain economic links in a hostile foreign environment can be attributed in part to the firm's low growth opportunities, performance, and lack of contingent plans to address country risk.     

基于债务风险的政府或有负债会计信息披露：国际经验与中国现实

或有负债可能引发的债务风险是导致政府财政危机的重要因素。当前我国的政府会计及报告体系未能有效地规范或有负债的信息披露,尤其在政府或有负债的确认、计量和报告上,存在着诸多管理真空。借鉴国际经验,需要从以下方面规范政府或有负债的会计信息披露：依据或有事项的发生可能性、事项性质、能否可靠计量等因素进行分类报告;在负债确认后加以持续关注;结合财务核算能力,对计量方法和报告方式做出具体规定;逐步完善政府会计基础向权责发生制转变;推进将或有负债纳入全口径预算管理。     

Estimating features of a distribution from binomial data

We propose estimators of features of the distribution of an unobserved random variable W. What is observed is a sample of Y,V,X where a binary Y equals one when W exceeds a threshold V determined by experimental design, and X are covariates. Potential applications include bioassay and destructive duration analysis. Our empirical application is referendum contingent valuation in resource economics, where one is interested in features of the distribution of values W (willingness to pay) placed by consumers on a public good such as endangered species. Sample consumers with characteristics X are asked whether they favor (with Y=1 if yes and zero otherwise) a referendum that would provide the good at a cost V specified by experimental design. This paper provides estimators for quantiles and conditional on X moments of W under both nonparametric and semiparametric specifications.     

跨国并购知识产权价值评估相关问题研究

明确跨国并购知识产权评估中的价值类型、影响因素和评估方法对于并购交易、国有资产管理等无疑是有着非常重要的意义,本文从价值类型、影响因素和评估方法三个方面对跨国并购知识产权的评估问题进行研究.跨国并购中知识产权的价值类型可分为三种:市场价值、投资价值、清算价值或重整价值.跨国并购知识产权评估中应考虑知识产权的价值影响因素,如法律因素、收益因素、风险因素、市场因素、宏观因素和技术因素等.在跨国并购知识产权评估中,应区分股权并购和资产并购采用不同的评估方法,且因为知识产权的不确定性,应加强模糊评价和因素分析法等方法在知识产权评估中的应用.     

生态服务的居民需求与影响因素偏效应测度——以上海市景观河流漕河泾为例

地表水环境生态服务具有公共物品特性,消费者需求信息难以获得,影响资源的有效配置和环境公共政策的科学性.应用意愿价值评估法调查496户居民上海城市景观河流水质改善的支付意愿,通过计量分析揭示影响需求的主要因素,并重点计算收入水平及差距、户籍、收入与户籍交互作用因素的边际影响.结果既符合消费理论的一般预期,也充分反映了我国转型经济阶段的社会特殊性.     

First-price auctions where one of the bidders’ valuations is common knowledge

We analyze a private and independent valuation first-price auction under the assumption that one of the bidders’ valuations is common knowledge. We show that no pure strategy equilibrium exists and we characterize a mixed strategy equilibrium in which the bidder whose valuation is common knowledge randomizes her bid while the other bidders play pure strategies. In an example with the uniform distribution, we compare the expected profits of seller and buyers in this auction with those in a standard symmetric private valuation model.     

Valuation effects of foreign divestitures

This study assesses announcement period valuation effects of foreign divestitures and explains why these valuation effects vary among firms. Significant positive valuation effects are observed. The valuation effects of foreign divestitures are positive and are similar in magnitude to those of a matched control group of domestic divestitures. Results of a cross-sectional analysis suggest that valuation effects are positively related to the relative size of the divested unit. Valuation effects are more favorable when divestitures are for strategic reorganization purposes and/or to raise cash, and valuation effects are more favorable for foreign divestitures in industrialized host countries. Several important managerial implications emerge from the results of this study. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.