Recent declines in fertility in less developed countries,and what ‘population planners’ may learn from them

Significant and rapid fertility declines have occurred in many countries in the poor world over the past decade; many of these were unanticipated by demographers. Despite advances in statistical technique and demographic theory, little is yet known about the demographic rhythms of life in poor countries, or of the social forces behind them. Fertility decline, however, appears to have much to do with changes, economic and otherwise, within the family structure. The impact of ‘family planning’ programmes on fertility decline appears to have been exaggerated. ‘Population planners’ should be sensitive to the fact that a decline in fertility does not necessarily mean that an improvement in the standard of living has occurred, and they should not assume that reducing fertility automatically increases either the quality of life or the prospects for ‘development’.     

Impact of population planning on the size distribution of income: a theoretical and methodological framework

Widespread population problems exist in developing countries (LDCs). It is believed that excessive population growth may have a negative effect on improvement in the standard of living and eventually on the country's production capabilities (GNP). In an attempt to stimulate production, LDCs have developed family planning programmes to decrease the rate of population growth. However, many of the family planning programmes have failed in their aims of substantially reducing the rates. A few studies conducted in Pakistan have revealed the widespread use of family planning in urbanized areas. This study supports the claim that urbanization and the practice of family planning are positively related - variables such as education and religion figure prominently in the study. Several studies have been developed to examine the relationship between income distribution and various demographic aspects. These are broken down into: Type 1 studies, which deal with the effect that income has on socioeconomic and demographic and geographic factors; Type 2 studies, which deal with the theory that income has an effect on fertility; and Type 3 studies, which deal with interdependence between income and fertility variables. Income does have an effect on decisions to use contraception, despite government sponsored programmes. Recommendations made for improving the work of government sponsored programmes include: increasing educational opportunities for men and women in both urban and rural areas; providing job opportunities for women in non-agricultural areas; redistributing income from rich to poor; and the improvement of health and nutritional facilities.     

Employment creation through the provision of social development services: exploring the options

The high unemployment rate in South Africa is a central concern of policy makers. Because there are only a few substantial labour intensive industries, led by the private sector, it has become essential to explore other less mainstream avenues for employment creation. The role of public works programmes has historically focused on the infrastructure sector, but the Expanded Public Works Programme includes the social sector. The government has at its disposal a strong policy instrument – the provision of a range of services to meet basic needs – and so could, in the medium term, create a large number of jobs through social development services, the demand for which vastly exceeds their provision. Basic social development needs programmes target a large number of unskilled unemployed and promise the possibility of affordable employment creation. Such programmes include Early Childhood Development (ECD) and Home and Community Based Care (HCBC) as identified by the Social Sector Plan. This article explores these options.     

Poverty,human rights law and socio-economic realities in South Africa†

South Africa is a nation of immense variety. It has rich cultural diversity, an enviable climate and an abundance of natural resources. However, it is also a nation with vast economic disparities and a highly unequal distribution of income. Hence, in spite of abundant resources and a seemingly vibrant economy, South Africa still faces an enormous poverty problem that is fundamentally no different from that of other African countries. As in many other African countries this problem of poverty is compounded by the HIV/AIDS pandemic; by high levels of unemployment; by low levels of education; and by a number of other factors. Today, South Africa has one of the best constitutions in the world and a Bill of Rights that contains an array of justiciable socio-economic rights. The South African government has also attempted to alleviate poverty and mitigate its effects through progressively developing and expanding a social welfare system and other programmes such as the Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP) and the Growth, Employment and Redistribution (GEAR) strategy. The purpose of this article is to analyse the role of human rights (specifically the Bill of Rights in the Constitution) and government efforts to alleviate poverty (through certain programmes and service delivery) in the face of adverse socio-economic realities in South Africa.     

Post-apartheid urban geography: A case study of Greater Johannesburg's Rapid Land Development Programme

This article addresses the twin issues of urbanisation and the eradication of the socio-spatial patterns of apartheid in South African cities through the presentation of a case study – the Greater Johannesburg Metropolitan Council's Rapid Land Development Programme (RLDP), initiated in 1995. This has been one of the few housing delivery programmes in the country since 1994 which has attempted to address these two issues simultaneously (the Marconi Beam Development in Cape Town being another). The significance of the RLDP lies not only in its marginal success, but also in its failures. It brought to the surface the intractable ideologies and vested interests behind the patterns of property ownership in South African cities, as well as the lack of policies or procedures to challenge them. As a result, urban development in general, and in Greater Johannesburg in particular has, since 1994, reinforced rather than confronted apartheid geography.     

The potential of and obstacles to agriculture in the Southern African Development Community

This article focuses on the potential of and obstacles to agriculture in the Southern Afri can Development Community. The potential for horizontal and vertical expansion of agri cultural production is discussed Specific attention is given to problems of data availabil ity, macroeconomic policy and trade in the region, inadequate research, technology de velopment and extension, human capital and land tenure. The article integrates the con tributions of an African Development Bank study, regional policy and macroeconomic programmes, international studies on potential population‐supporting capacity and re gional rural and agricultural programmes.     

重新认识中国的人口形势

中国人口进入低生育率时期已经20年了,但长期以来人口研究对这种重大转变认识不足。全国第六次人口普查数据证实,以往严重高估出生水平和生育水平,低估人口老龄化进程,人口发展规划目标一再出现大幅落空。人口预测模拟结果表明,中国人口在21世纪中的主要矛盾已经由总人口规模问题转向人口年龄结构问题,未来人口老龄化来势凶猛。中国人口发展正处于极为关键的时刻,而以往人口理论宣传和估计预测中的偏向误导了对人口大趋势的正确把握,造成中国生育率严重过低,导致未来过度的少子化和老龄化的人口风险。     

Perceptions of service delivery and happiness

An important task for students of development is to monitor progress in bringing basic services to all South Africans, one of the major objectives of the Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP). This article reports on a subjective indicator study which began in February 1995, nine months after the April 1994 elections. The study, commissioned by Information Update, a Human Sciences Research Council research publication, inquired into personal happiness and assessments of local public services including access to water, education, electricity, health care, roads and transport. Over 5 700 South Africans were polled during 1995 in three nationally representative sample surveys. Secondary data analysis showed that perceived improvements to local services were closely associated with increases in happiness among all sectors of the population, including rural dwellers and the poor. The article discusses the policy implications of this finding for future voting behaviour and efficient local government.     

SDIs: Infrastructure,agglomeration and the region in industrial policy

This article reports on the initial findings of an Industrial Strategy Project Research Programme on a key current element of national industrial policy, namely Spatial Development Initiatives (SDIs). The ISP Research Programme is concerned with industrial investment. The operational industrial SDIs are examined against the backdrops of the pattern of contemporary industrial location in South Africa and the emergence of a regional industrial policy for the country; the long‐run experience with SDI‐type programmes internationally and in South Africa; and directions in current regional industrial development theory and practice, particularly those interventions aimed at strengthening the economies associated with regional/sectoral clusters or agglomerations typically embedded in metropolitan locations. The preliminary findings of research commissioned on long‐run industrial development in Richards Bay, and the current SDI processes under way in the Fish River SDI (Eastern Cape) and the West Coast SDI (Western Cape) are then presented These findings demonstrate that for the SDIs to meet their intentions in terms of maximising inward investment, creating jobs and catalysing durable regional economic development, the large opportunity present to use SDI processes to build the capacity and social infrastructure for economic development at local and regional level on — and between — both public and private sector sides should be grasped. To this end, it is also suggested that SDIs be closely linked to other government industrial promotion and support activities, notably the cluster initiatives and SMME support programmes, both of which may themselves need, at this point, far clearer regional focus.     

边疆民族地区人口结构预测及优化对策研究——以云南省为例

人口结构问题对边疆民族地区社会经济发展的制约作用越来越明显。对人口结构进行预测,把握人口结构发展趋势,制定人口结构对策对社会经济发展具有重要的理论和实践意义。优化云南人口结构的对策是：调整生育政策;发挥年龄结构优势使劳动适龄人口充分就业;利用主体功能区划进行人口布局的合理规划。     

联合国预测:中国快速走向老龄化

最新发布的联合国《世界人口前景2010修订本》对中国人口的评估和预测作出了重大调整,预测中国人口在2026年达到峰值13.96亿后迅速下降,到2050年时下降到12.95亿。预测表明中国快速迈向老龄社会大势已定,无法逆转,生育率能否尽快走出低谷是决定中国人口未来的关键。人口预测只是人口决策的参考而不应该是人口决策的目标。鉴于中国生育率低于更替水平已达20年之久,现在已经到1.5以下,再不调整计划生育政策,极有可能掉入"低生育水平的陷阱"。     

Node selection for the Integrated Sustainable Rural Development Programme in South Africa

Various programmes and strategies in South Africa aim to reduce poverty. The Integrated Sustainable Rural Development Programme (ISRDP) is a sustained campaign against rural poverty and underdevelopment, implemented in 13 nodes selected on account of their poverty, lack of infrastructure and capacity, and provincial representivity. Using a hierarchy of development regions, data from the 2001 Census and a core-periphery model, this paper evaluates the location of the 13 nodes to determine whether the municipalities in these nodes have high levels of poverty and are in need of development. The findings are that although most of these municipalities have high poverty levels, the nodes also include municipalities with relatively high levels of development. There are also 17 municipalities in South Africa with very low levels of development that are not included as nodes in the ISRDP. Policy-makers need to take cognisance of the macro pattern of spatial economic development.     

EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN POPULATION GROUPS IN SOUTH AFRICA AND THE TIMING AND NUMBER OF BIRTHS

From 1981 to 2005, the total fertility rate in South Africa has been reduced from an estimated level of 4.6 to 2.8 children per woman. The relative differences in the total fertility rate between population groups, however, remain large. Our empirical analysis of the determinants of the timing of births shows that better‐educated women schedule birth later and have fewer children. The differences in education between population groups account for a substantive part (up to 40%) of the differences in completed fertility between the population groups. Our findings suggest that educational reforms aimed at equal access to education, which benefit African women most, may not only improve the quality of life of women but also, through their impact on fertility behaviour, yield long‐run benefits, as they will have fewer children and more resources to invest in the next generation.     

Population policy in South Africa: a critical perspective

The argument in this article is that population growth and the concept of balancing resources against population growth is flawed when the context, in this case South Africa, is gross inequalities in resource distribution. The fact is that causes of poverty are located in the social and political structures which give people unequal access to existing resources or international aid. Population trends reflect the mode of production of that society. It is argued that the Malthusian law of population and the theory of demographic transition is ahistorical and inaccurate. The theory does not explain why population growth rates change. In South Africa, fertility reflects lack of control over one's life and poverty. Migrant labor in South Africa undermined normal social institutions and disrupted family life. Government has emphasized a fear of a future population crisis because of resource shortages and a fear of the growing black population. The South African population development program is extracted and discussed. Questions are raised about the theory of demographic transition, the way resource allocation is ascertained, the relationship between resources and population in a specific area, and the relationship between population growth and development in general. The theory of demographic transition is examined and the Western influences which contributed to population growth through requests for changes in sexual mores and the effects of colonization. When demographic transition theory postulates that mortality rates decline with industrialization as a result of access to medical care and an improved diet, it doesn't take into account the discriminatory health care allocation under apartheid, or the displacement of rural people from their land and undermining of the rural peasantry. Separate development has led to inferior schooling and lack of access to skilled employment. In discussing the availability of resources in South Africa, the question is raised as to whether there is an absolute limit to water, or whether water management or water conservation is at issue, as in the case example of the Transkei. What is economical reflects political decisions about national priorities when consideration is given to alternative strategies for increasing the water supply, or solving pollution problems. The potential to feed South Africans is substantiated, and the problems of maldistribution identified. In establishing the balance between family planning and development, the Population Development Program (PDP) expresses contradictory aims; i.e., seeking community involvement of a politically disenfranchised population. The concept of overpopulation and the application of population control programs in South Africa does not address the problems of poverty and powerlessness.     

超大城市流动人口健康教育水平及影响因素

选取超大城市流动人口作为研究对象,采用比较分析的方法,分析中国超大城市流动人口健康教育状况;采用 计量回归的方法,研究个体特征因素、家庭特征因素、流动特征因素、公共服务供给与获得这四个方面的指标对中国 超大城市流动人口健康教育水平的影响。结果表明,中国超大城市流动人口的健康教育水平低于其他地区,有较大 提升空间;个体特征因素、家庭特征因素、流动特征因素、公共服务供给与获得四个方面的指标对超大城市流动人口健康教育水平均有较强影响。     

‘Fit to play’: Labour market behaviour in a cohort of public-sector antiretroviral treatment patients

Given the rapid scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART), it is necessary to explore the impact of ART on labour force participation, employment and labour productivity. This article investigates labour market outcomes in a prospective cohort of public-sector ART clients in the Free State province of South Africa. Empirical results suggest that labour force participation increased markedly as the proportion of those too ill to work declined, becoming indistinguishable from participation rates in the general population. Unemployment rates, however, remain above those reported for the general population. ART and its health-related benefits therefore translate into increases in labour force participation, but not employment. Employment status at HIV diagnosis strongly predicts absorption in the labour force. Public-sector ART clients should be referred to vocational rehabilitation and occupational therapy programmes, and to welfare-to-work programmes, and the unskilled to adult education and training and further education and training programmes.     

Existence level differences and spatial industrial restructuring in South Africa: RDP imperatives

The change of government in South Africa and the subsequent implementation of the Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP) has necessitated afresh look at the spatial‐economic development policies of the past. Recently, an attempt was made to measure differences in existence level in South Africa using a combination of First and Third World criteria. In this paper these differences are related to general trends in population redistribution in the country since 1960 in an effort to assess the probable impact of existence level difference and migration on urbanisation in South Africa in the long run. On the basis of these assessments, expected trends in urban development in South Africa are compared with previous industrial development policies in an effort to determine RDP imperatives for the future.     

A simultaneous-equation model of labor supply,fertility and earnings of married women: the case of registered nurses

A simultaneous-equation model of labor supply, fertility, and earnings is developed and estimated for an important subset of the female population, married registered nurses (RNs). Measures of variables specific to married nurses age 21-64 are developed by aggregating observations on individual nurses or their families into Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) averages, from the 1-in-100 Public Use Sample of the 1970 Census of Population in the U.S. The sample was restricted in certain ways: the grouped observations apply only to white RNs who are married with husband present and live in SMSAs of over 250,000 population in 1970 (except Honolulu). The sample is further restricted so that each included observation (representing an SMSA average) is based upon an underlying pool of at least 15 individual nurses. This last restriction reduces the sample of SMSAs to 88 from 124. The coefficient on the nurse wage variable is positive and statistically significant with an implied wage elasticity of .40 at the means. These estimates are consistent with those observed using the analogous microcensus data on RNs. RN fertility has the predicted negative effect on nurse labor supply but is statistically insignificant, but the magnitude of the fertility coefficient is plausible. A 10% increase in nurse fertility within an SMSA (number of children ever born/1000 nurses ever married within an SMSA) is associated with a reduction in the SMSA nurse labor supply. The estimated coefficients of the husband-earnings and nonlabor-income variables are negative but only the former is statistically significant at the 90% level or above. The estimated effect of the nurse's earnings opportunities on her fertility are statistically insignificant, but the wage coefficient is negative as expected and implies an elasticity of nurse fertility with respect to the nurse wage rate of approximately -.2. The coefficient on the labor supply variable is negative and statistically significant, confirming the hypothesis that increased labor market activity increases the opportunity costs of children. Husband's earnings are not a significant determinant of RN fertility. The estimates suggest that nurse labor supply and fertility decisions are relatively unimportant factors in determining the nurse's market earnings.     

Incorporating population issues in agricultural extension

The rate of population growth in Malawi is very high and has become a cause of concern for development planners. The Child Spacing Programme is supposed to promote family planning with the ultimate goal of slowing down population growth. This article argues that the success of any family planning programme in Malawi hinges on the active involvement of males, who are the key decision‐makers in families as well as the larger community. One way of getting males to appreciate the necessity for small families is to demonstrate the real and potential danger that a large family poses to its livelihood, which depends on the availability of adequate fertile land and regular rainfall. This calls for the inclusion of population education in agricultural extension.