Two-way trade between unequal partners: The EU and the developing countries

Two-Way Trade between Unequal Partners: The EU and the Developing Countries. — This paper analyses the intra-industry trade specialization between the EU and the developing countries between 1980 and 1992. It shows that EU intra-industry trade with the developing countries has greatly increased and that the traditional measure of intra-industry trade, the Grubel-Lloyd index, is inappropriate when applied to trade between developed and developing countries. By and large, the empirical analysis confirms that intra-industry trade between the developed and the developing countries increases with average and per capita income, and with reduced differences in economic size and capital-labour ratios.     

中日钢铁产业内贸易及影响因素实证分析

为了研究中日间钢铁产业内贸易及其主要影响因素,首先,选用相关指数和方法对1990～2009年两国钢铁产业内贸易水平进行分类测量发现,中日钢铁总体产业内贸易水平呈波浪形增长,产业内贸易模式以垂直型产业内贸易为主;其次,运用时间序列分析对总体产业内贸易、水平型和垂直型产业内贸易与各影响因素分别进行了协整检验和Granger因果检验,在实证结论基础上文章提出重点应在优化出口产品结构、提高市场集中度、提高自主创新能力等方面努力。     

Chinese Bilateral Intra-Industry Trade: A Panel Data Study for 50 Countries in the 1992–2001 Period

This study examines the features and determinants of Chinese intra-industry trade during the 1992–2001 transition period for 50 of China’s trade partners. We disentangle total intra-industry trade (TIIT) into vertical intra-industry trade (VIIT) vis-à-vis horizontal intra-industry trade (HIIT), using data at the four-digit SITC level. The findings indicate that Chinese bilateral intra-industry trade, particularly VIIT, increased significantly during this transition period. VIIT appears to be positively related to differences in consumer patterns. HIIT is negatively related to these differences. In addition, we find that FDI has played an important role in determining IIT, especially VIIT. Other significant intra-industry trade drivers are geographical distance, economic size, trade openness and trade composition. Finally, the impact of China’s liberalization policies and the special role of Hong Kong are demonstrated. We discuss a number of important business and political implications that can be drawn from our findings. JEL no. F14     

中日双边产业内贸易及影响因素实证研究

本文利用产业内贸易指数对1988～2008年中日贸易数据的分析结果显示:产业内贸易已成为两国贸易的重要组成部分,其中制成品特别是SITC5+7类资本或技术密集型制成品的产业内贸易特征尤为明显。进一步分析表明,中日产业内贸易比重的提升主要得益于垂直型产业内贸易的发展,且中国在中日垂直型产业内贸易中整体居于贸易劣势地位。对中日产业内贸易影响因素的回归结果显示:中日人均GDP差异、市场规模以及日本对华直接投资与中日产业内贸易正相关,而中日市场规模差异与中日产业内贸易负相关。     

Vertical intra-industry trade and foreign direct investment in East Asia

As economic integration in East Asia progresses, trade patterns within the region are displaying an ever-greater complexity: Though inter-industry trade still accounts for the majority, its share in overall trade is declining. Instead, intra-industry trade (IIT), which can be further divided into horizontal IIT (HIIT) and vertical IIT (VIIT), is growing in importance.In this paper, we set out to measure and examine vertical intra-industry trade patterns in the East Asian region and compare these with the results of previous studies focusing on the EU, to which such analyses so far have been confined. Based on the supposition that VIIT is closely related to offshore production by multinational enterprises, we then develop a model to capture the main determinants of VIIT that explicitly includes the role of FDI. The model is tested empirically using data from the electrical machinery industry. The findings support our hypothesis, showing that FDI plays a significant role in the rapid increase in VIIT in East Asia seen in recent years. J. Japanese Int. Economies 17 (4) (2003) 468–506.     

台海两岸ICT制造业的贸易模式及其决定因素分析

本文基于中国台湾1993～2010年的贸易数据对台海两岸信息通信科技(ICT)制造业最终产品和零部件贸易模式进行解析,研究结果显示:台海两岸ICT制造业的贸易模式逐步从20世纪90年代以产业间贸易为主转变为21世纪以产业内贸易为主,这一点在零部件贸易中表现得尤为突出;无论是最终产品还是零部件,台海两岸ICT产品产业内贸易都以垂直产业内贸易为主,并且零部件产业内贸易中垂直产业内贸易所占比重明显高于最终产品;进一步分析ICT产品垂直产业内贸易中台湾的相对技术优势发现,无论是在最终产品还是零部件垂直产业内贸易中,台湾对大陆出口的高技术含量产品均占据优势份额且呈迅速上涨趋势。台海两岸ICT制造业的产业内贸易模式的实证检验表明,两岸ICT零部件的产业内贸易主要是由驱动ICT全球性生产网络发展的垂直专业分工链条的分解所导致,而ICT最终产品的产业内贸易则主要是由市场规模等需求性因素所导致。     

FDI与垂直型产业内贸易实证研究——基于中日统计数据的Granger因果检验

基于Fukao等人(2003)的模型对FDI与垂直型产业内贸易的分析结果表明,在FDI成本与贸易成本较低的条件下,当两国存在资源禀赋差异时,FDI会引起两国间垂直型产业内贸易。进一步利用1988年至2009年中日贸易数据的指数进行分析的结果表明:产业内贸易已成为两国贸易的重要组成部分,其中SITC 7类机电产品产业内贸易特征尤为明显,而中日产业内贸易比重的提升则主要得益于垂直型产业内贸易的发展。而Granger因果检验的结果证实了理论分析的结论。     

中国加入WTO以来中日国际分工格局的变化——以汽车及其零部件产业内贸易为例

大多数国家的经验表明,一国经济开放度的提高会改变该国的国际分工模式,具体表现为产业内贸易水平的上升。本文具体研究中国加入WTO以来中日汽车及其零部件的产业内贸易,得出结论:中日汽车及其零部件的产业内贸易水平在这一时期不仅没有上升,反而出现了大幅度的下降。作者对此原因作了研究并提出了一些启示。     

Patterns and determinants of international fragmentation of production: Evidence from outward processing trade between the EU and Central Eastern European countries

Patterns and Determinants of International Fragmentation of Production: Evidence from Outward Processing Trade between the EU and Central Eastern European Countries. — In this paper we investigate a specific form of international fragmentation of production, that is, the form giving rise to international trade for reasons of processing. Data on textile and apparel trade between EU countries and Central European countries show that the magnitude of trade for reasons of processing greatly overshadows that of final trade. The industry appears to be affected by a process of international fragmentation whose understanding requires a new definition of the concept of comparative advantage. Our analysis suggests that this fragmentation is activated by labor cost differentials as well as by reasons of geographic and cultural proximity.     

Demand patterns and Canada’s trade in services

Canada’s trade in commercial services appears inconsistent with what manufacturing-oriented Heckscher-Ohlin theory predicts. Canada’s services trade is overwhelmingly intra-industry, involving countries whose factor proportions and demand patterns are similar—findings consistent with the ‘new’ trade theory, and the Linder hypothesis: that there is a uni-directional causal relationship flowing from the similarity (convergence) in demand patterns amongst trading partners, to Canada’s exports to those partners. Support for this conjecture is found for the US, the UK, and Japan. We infer that liberalization of trade in commercial services is likely welfare enhancing, with gains greater within trade arrangements and entities such as the NAFTA, the EU, and the OECD.     

“金砖四国”产业内贸易的经济效应分析

文章利用加权产业内贸易指标、产业内贸易与贸易额和GDP之间的相关关系对＂金砖四国＂产业内贸易的经济效应进行实证分析。结果显示推动四国贸易的主要是产业间贸易,中国与印度产业内贸易总体水平最高,但中国与巴西的贸易额对加权产业内贸易指数的弹性系数最大,中国与俄罗斯双边产业内贸易对推动两国GDP的作用最为突出。     

East-west intra-industry trade dynamics

Conclusions Trade liberalization, integration and catching-up with the developed countries are often associated with an increase in intra-industry trade. We showed in the literature survey that the reduction of trade barriers is associated with the growth of intra-industry trade. We currently observe that the trade of the selected EU countries (Austria, Germany, Italy, Sweden and the Netherlands) with the CEECs (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia) follows this pattern as well. However, the increase of intra-industry trade is not uniform, but reflects different patterns of integration and progress of industrial restructuring.     

中日两国产业内贸易及其影响因素分析

中日两国产业内贸易的比重正呈逐年上升的趋势，产业内贸易和产业间贸易并存发展，呈现出较为高级的垂直型分工型态。中日两国的产业内贸易受多种因素共同影响，其中，中国人均收入水平不断提高以及日本对华直接投资规模的扩大是重要的影响因素。     

日本与欧盟经贸关系:现状与趋势

日本与欧盟均为发达经济体,在世界经济中占有重要地位。二战后,日欧之间一直保持密切的经贸关系,在贸易投资等领域的相互依存度较高。英国因处于主要国际金融中心和欧盟"桥头堡"的地位,吸引了大量日本企业。随着英国公投决定脱欧、特朗普政府推行"美国优先"和贸易保护政策、新冠疫情突发和蔓延,全球经贸体系重构加快。日本积极扩展对外经贸关系,2018年3月推动达成CPTPP,同年7月与欧盟签署日欧EPA。日本此举的目的除了获取传统意义上的经济利益之外,更为看重的是塑造和引领新时期的国际经贸规则。展望日欧经贸关系,在不发生意外的情况下,今后日本对欧盟贸易将呈扩大之势,与英国经贸关系会显著增强,在欧洲的投资及产业链供应链布局将出现调整,而"一带一路"建设客观上将助力日欧经贸合作。     

Estimating the export and import demand for manufactured goods: The role of FDI

In this paper we estimate the demand for exports and imports of manufactured goods for a panel containing the majority of the EU countries as well as the United States and Japan. The model includes as explanatory factors both the traditional determinants of trade and also the stock of foreign direct investment (FDI). We apply panel unit root and cointegration tests allowing for heterogeneity. Whereas there is no evidence of cointegration when using just the traditional formulation, the results are favorable to the existence of long-run relationships linking the variables of the augmented model. Moreover, the results point mainly to a complementary relationship between trade and FDI.     

Estimating the export and import demand for manufactured goods: The role of FDI

In this paper we estimate the demand for exports and imports of manufactured goods for a panel containing the majority of the EU countries as well as the United States and Japan. The model includes as explanatory factors both the traditional determinants of trade and also the stock of foreign direct investment (FDI). We apply panel unit root and cointegration tests allowing for heterogeneity. Whereas there is no evidence of cointegration when using just the traditional formulation, the results are favorable to the existence of long-run relationships linking the variables of the augmented model. Moreover, the results point mainly to a complementary relationship between trade and FDI.     

Driving forces of vertical intra-industry trade in Europe 1996–2005

A common feature in the empirical literature of intra-industry trade is the analysis of trade between a given reference country and a set of partners. This article differs from previous studies by examining the bilateral trade among all trading partners within a set of partners. Using a panel data approach, we find that differences in factor endowments seem not to be important as a driving force behind vertical intra-industry trade for European countries over the chosen period. More important driving forces are production size, geographical proximity, average income per capita and income distribution overlap.     

The role of comparative advantage in trade within industries: A panel data approach for the European Union

The Role of Comparative Advantage in Trade within Industries: A Panel Data Approach for the European Union. — A large share of EU member states trade is intra-industry trade (IIT) in the period 1985-1996; in particular, IIT is based on products differentiated in quality (vertical IIT). Moreover, exports from southern countries are located mainly at the lower end of the price-quality spectrum, whereas those countries with higher per capita incomes are located at the higher end. According to the vertical IIT models, we hypothesize that commercial specialization of members states over the quality spectrum within industries is explained by differences in technological, physical and human capital. The results show that comparative advantage is an important driver of the pattern of European trade within industries.     

中日贸易的比较优势与互补性分析

中日双边贸易关系是中日关系的重要组成部分。通过运用贸易结合度指数、显性比较优势指数和贸易互补性指数,对1996年至2005年中日双边贸易的现状和发展趋势、比较优势和贸易互补性进行测算,分析结果表明中国与日本志比较优势上存在较明显差异,中日两国之间的贸易无论在出口上还是在进口上均具有互补性,仍以跨行业贸易为主要特征。加强中日经贸关系有利于两国更好地发挥现有的比较优势,促进两国经济的发展。     

Measuring marginal intra-industry trade

Measuring Marginal Intra-Industry Trade. — Trade liberalisation and adjustment: how important is intra-industry trade? This paper focuses on the appropriate measurement of intra-industry trade as indicator of structural adjustment costs. It is argued that existing dynamic versions of the Grubel-Lloyd index reflect horizontal trade only and classify vertical intra-industry trade with inter-industry trade. The paper proposes a method to distinguish between horizontal and vertical trade and applies these techniques to emerging trade between the EU and the economies of central and eastern Europe.