The impact of quantitative easing (QE) on the cost of debt in project finance investments

Recession-driven low inflation and high spreads have increased the cost of debt in public sector project finance investments, therefore reducing private sector profits and bankability. This paper investigates the impact of quantitative easing by central banks, showing that it can stimulate economic growth producing shared public and private benefits.     

Equity and debt issuance by firms violating GAAP

We examine security issuance in restated periods by firms that misreport financial statements and find that only a small per cent of such firms issues securities in the restated period. Investors are misled by mistakes made by firms issuing equity more so than other restating firms at the initial announcement of misreported earnings, but are not misled by mistakes made by debt‐issuing firms. Equity‐issuing firms that manage earnings to beat analyst expectations experience abnormally high returns in the restated period prior to security issuance. Firms that restated more reports and have higher pre‐mistake returns are more likely to issue equity. High leverage, firm size and number of restated periods are positively associated with the likelihood of debt issuance by restating firms.     

Risk dynamics surrounding the issuance of convertible bonds

This paper analyzes the risk dynamics surrounding convertible bond offerings (CBOs) and Seasoned Equity Offerings (SEOs). As convertible bonds are commonly believed to be very effective at mitigating adverse selection or overinvestment problems we would expect differing risk and return patterns for convertible bond and seasoned equity issuers. By analyzing 1148 convertible bond offerings and comparing them to 2905 seasoned equity offerings, we show however that for both issuer types the systematic risk increases prior to issuance and drops sharply thereafter. This result is consistent with the notion of exercising real options, as growth options are always riskier than the underlying assets and exercising them at issuance causes an immediate drop in risk. The real option framework and the proposed dynamics of systematic risk also provide a rational explanation for the negative announcement effect, as well as any long-term underperformance subsequent to the CBO and the SEOs.     

The impact of junior debt issuance on senior unsecured debt’s risk premiums

Numerous studies have examined the impact of security issuance upon the value of pre-existing debt and equity but the focus has largely been on changes in equity value. We examine changes in senior unsecured debt risk premiums that accompany new junior debt issues. Additionally, we test several hypotheses regarding the potential impacts of junior debt issues. Extant theory suggests senior debt value may be threatened under certain conditions by the issuance of junior debt. Our results indicate that when junior debt replaces bank debt, senior default risk premiums experience abnormal declines. The result is broadly consistent with the elevation of the senior unsecured debt by way of the elimination of a separate and more senior class of debt claimants. In contrast, we also find that larger junior bond issues are associated with abnormal increases in senior risk premiums, broadly consistent with issue size being correlated with negative information about firm cash flows. We find strong evidence of interaction effects. For example, replacement of bank debt results in greater changes in default risk premiums the larger the issue size. We also find lower credit ratings magnify other effects. For example, if the junior debt issued matures before the outstanding senior unsecured bond, senior risk premiums experience abnormal increases for lower rated debt.     

CEO inside debt and corporate debt maturity structure

This paper examines the relation between chief executive officer (CEO) inside debt holdings and corporate debt maturity. We provide robust evidence that inside debt has a positive effect on short-maturity debt and that this effect is concentrated in financially unconstrained firms that face lower refinancing risk. Our analysis further shows that CEO inside debt helps reduce the cost of debt financing. Overall, our results indicate that managerial holdings of inside debt facilitate access to external debt financing and reduce refinancing risk, thus incentivizing managers to use less costly shorter term debt.     

Firm location and corporate debt

This study examines the influence of a firm’s geographical location on corporate debt and provides evidence that the higher cost of collecting information on firms distant from urban areas has significant implications on a wide array of corporate debt characteristics. We find that rural firms face higher debt yield spreads and attract smaller and less prestigious bank syndicates than urban firms. Rural firms attempt to reduce their informational disadvantage by relying more on relationship banking. Our results on the effect of location on corporate debt are robust to the inclusion of an extensive set of firm and issue characteristics.     

Outsider CEOs and corporate debt

We examine the extent to which outsider chief executive officers (CEOs) influence corporate financial leverage policies. We define an outsider CEO as one who appears in the reporting year and became CEO either immediately upon joining or within 3 months of joining a firm. There are arguments in the literature that the selection of an outsider CEO can either increase or decrease financial leverage. We investigate this issue using 11,118 Australian firm-year observations from 1216 firms listed during the period 2001–2015. Our findings suggest that, in the short-term after their appointment, outsider CEOs reduce firm dependence on debt. This result is robust to several additional tests and four measures to minimize endogeneity concerns. However, with an increase in their tenure at the firm, outsider CEOs revert to greater dependency on corporate debt. After supplementary analyses, we determine that the outsider CEOs short-term strategy of reducing financial leverage involves using cash reserves and restricting dividends to reduce existing debt. Instead, outsider CEOs finance capital expenditure projects thus providing a positive signal to the market that such CEOs are more creditworthy. Our results also suggest that outsider CEOs exercise more control over financial leverage when they have specialist attributes.     

CEO overconfidence and corporate debt maturity

This paper extends our knowledge of corporate debt maturity structure by examining whether and to what extent overconfident CEOs affect maturity decisions. Consistent with a demand side story, we find that firms with overconfident CEOs tend to adopt a shorter debt maturity structure by using a higher proportion of short-term debt (due within 12 months). This behavior of overconfident CEOs is not deterred by the high liquidity risk associated with such a financing strategy. Our demand side explanation remains robust even after considering six possible alternative drivers including a competing supply side explanation (in which creditors are reluctant to extend long-term debt to overconfident CEOs).     

Tax shelters and corporate debt policy

We gather a unique sample of 44 tax shelter cases to investigate the magnitude of tax shelter activity and whether participating in a shelter is related to corporate debt policy. The average annual deduction produced by the shelters in our sample is very large, equaling approximately nine percent of asset value. These deductions are more than three times as large as interest deductions for comparable companies. The firms in our sample use less debt when they engage in tax sheltering. Compared to companies with similar pre-shelter debt ratios, the debt ratios of firms engaged in tax shelters fall by about 8%. The tax shelter firms in our sample appear underlevered if shelters are ignored but do not appear underlevered once shelters are considered.     

National culture and corporate debt maturity

We investigate the influence of national culture on corporate debt maturity choice. Based on the framework of Williamson, we argue that culture located in social embeddedness level can shape contracting environments by serving as an informal constraint that affects human actors’ incentives and choices in market exchange. We therefore expect national culture to be related to debt maturity structure after controlling for legal, political, financial, and economic institutions. Using Hofstede’s four cultural dimensions (uncertainty avoidance, collectivism, power distance, and masculinity) as proxies for culture, and using a sample of 114,723 firm-years from 40 countries over the 1991-2006 period, we find robust evidence that firms located in countries with high uncertainty avoidance, high collectivism, high power distance, and high masculinity tend to use more short-term debt. We interpret our results as consistent with the view that national culture helps explain cross-country variations in the maturity structure of corporate debt.     

CEO inside debt and convertible bonds

The question whether convertible bonds are issued to combat the risk‐shifting problem is a subject of debate in the literature, primarily because of the unavailability of clear measures regarding managerial risk‐shifting incentives. Taking advantage of recently developed inside debt‐holding measures for CEOs, we find strong evidence in support of the risk‐shifting hypothesis. When a CEO holds a large amount of inside debt, three distinct patterns emerge: (i) the firm exhibits a lower ratio of outstanding convertibles to total debt; (ii) the firm is less likely to issue convertibles than straight debt; and (iii) the firm devises contract terms to decrease the chance of conversion when it issues convertibles.     

Bank loans during the 2008 quantitative easing

We examine the effect of quantitative easing on the supply of bank loans. During the Fed’s quantitative easing programs, lending banks reduced relatively more loan spreads, offered longer loan maturities, provided larger loans, and loosened more covenants for firms whose long-term bond ratings were below BBB and were lower than those with investment-grade bond ratings. Furthermore, we find that new bank loans in this period were associated with a reduction in a firm’s value and an increase in default risk. These results indicate that banks took greater risk during the 2008 quantitative easing by relaxing lending standards to relatively riskier borrowers.     

Risk aversion and the yield of corporate debt

This paper develops a model to estimate the implied default probability of corporate bonds. The model explicitly considers the risk averse behavior of investors to provide a more precise framework for estimating the implied default probability. A Kalman filter method is used to estimate time-varying risk premium associated with the investor's risk aversion. The results of nonlinear regressions indicate that previous risk-neutrality models consistently overestimate the implied default rates of corporate bonds. The results also suggest that investors may have been adequately compensated for investment in risky bonds.     

Capital inflows,equity issuance activity,and corporate investment

This paper uses issuance-level data to study how equity capital inflows that enter emerging market economies affect equity issuance and corporate investment. It shows that foreign inflows are strongly correlated with country-level issuance. The relation especially reflects the behavior of large firms. To identify supply-side shocks, capital inflows into each country are instrumented with exogenous changes in other countries’ attractiveness to foreign investors. Shifts in the supply of foreign capital are important drivers of increased equity inflows. Instrumented contemporaneous and lagged capital inflows lead large firms to raise new equity, which they use to fund investment.     

Convertible debt issuance,capital structure change and financing-related information: Some new evidence

This paper provides evidence on the valuation effects of convertible debt issuance. Common stockholders earn significant negative abnormal returns at the initial announcement of a convertible debt offering, and also at the issuance date. In contrast, the average valuation effect on common stock at the announcement of non-convertible debt offerings is only marginally negative, and is zero at issuance. The significant negative average effect on common stock value appears not to be systematically related to either the degree of leverage change induced by the convertible debt issuance or the extent to which the proceeds from issuance are used for new investment or to refinance existing debt. If, as appears likely, the issuance of convertible debt on average increases financial leverage, these results are inconsistent with evidence from other recent studies documenting common stock price effects of the same sign as the change in leverage. The evidence suggests that convertible debt offerings convey unfavorable information about the issuing firms, but the specific nature of such information remains unidentified.     

Estimating the term structures of corporate debt

This paper investigates the corporate bond market by estimating monthly interest rate term structures for investment grade credit classes using both S&P's and Moody's ratings. Term structures are modeled by a piecewise constant forward rate curve and estimated on noncallable coupon paying bonds issued by industrial firms. The iterative estimation algorithm minimizes the sum of squared errors between market prices and model prices while identifying and removing outliers from the sample. Although the forward rate model is successful at pricing corporate debt, additional factors are found to be significant at explaining the residual price error that remains after the forward rate model is fit to market prices. Six necessary no-arbitrage conditions are derived for the term structures of risky and risk-free debt. Occasionally, some of these no-arbitrage conditions are violated and a few violations are asymptotically statistically significant. Finally, trading strategies that capture mispricing in the corporate debt market and violations of no-arbitrage bounds are discussed.This paper was adapted from my dissertation, completed at Cornell University. An earlier version of this paper was titled The Term Structures of Corporate Debt. Thanks to participants at the Cornell University finance workshop, Warren Bailey, Peter Carr, Antoine Giannetti, and especially Robert Jarrow for their helpful comments.     

The effect of issuance documentation disclosure and readability on liquidity: Evidence from green bonds

This paper investigates the potential effects of the disclosure and the readability of a green bond’s issuance documentation on its liquidity. Using a sample of 274 green bonds issued by both corporate and financial issuers (102 unique firms) worldwide (23 countries) from 2011 to 2018, we show that both the disclosure of green bond frameworks and annual reports and their readability increase the bond’s liquidity. Our results are robust to checks for endogeneity and to alternative estimation techniques. Both disclosure and readability have a more important impact on liquidity for bonds issued by nonfinancial (vs. financial) issuers, bonds with longer maturities, and those with lower credit ratings.     

Valuation of defaultable bonds and debt restructuring

In this paper we develop a contingent valuation model for zero-coupon bonds with default. In order to emphasize the role of maturity time and place of the lender's claim in a firm's debt hierarchy, we consider a firm that issues two bonds with different maturities and different seniorage. The model allows us to analyze the implications of both debt renegotiation and capital structure of a firm on the prices of bonds. We obtain that renegotiation brings about a significant change in the bond prices and that the effect is dispersed through various channels: increasing the value of the firm, reallocating payments, and avoiding costly liquidation. Moreover, the presence of two creditors leads to qualitatively different implications for pricing, while emphasizing the importance of bond covenants and renegotiation of the entire debt.     

CEO tournament incentives and corporate debt contracting

This study examines the relation between CEO tournament incentives, proxied by the difference between CEO pay and the median pay of the senior executives of a given firm, and corporate debt contracting. We find negative relations between CEO pay gap and the cost of debt and default risk, and a positive relation between CEO pay gap and debt maturity. Further analysis indicates that the results are stronger for firms with near-retirement CEOs, which are more likely to run CEO tournaments. Our evidence suggests that creditors view tournament incentives favorably and are willing to provide better debt terms.