经济结构与经济增长--基于面板平滑转换模型的实证分析

本文运用面板平滑转换回归模型对我国经济结构与经济增长的关系进行实证分析,分别考察了第二产业结构和第三产业结构对经济增长的资本产出弹性、劳动产出弹性以及规模报酬的影响。实证结果表明,第二产业的比重与资本产出弹性、劳动产出弹性以及规模报酬均成正相关;第三产业的比重与资本产出弹性呈现一种非线性递增关系,而与劳动产出弹性以及规模报酬成非线性递减关系。     

Digital divide and financial development in Africa

This paper analyses the influence of the digital divide on the new IMF financial development index on a panel of 34 African countries over the period 2005–2017. Using the instrumental variables technique, we arrive at the main result that ICT divide is a severe handicap for the financial systems development in Africa. The use of financial development sub-indices relating to financial institutions and financial markets, as well as their dimensions confirms the negative effect of the digital divide. Our result remains stable when we use alternative measures of financial development and ICT indicators. Furthermore, we found that the digital divide between countries is also a severe handicap for the financial development of countries lagging behind. On the other hand, countries with a technological lead or a digital dividend have relatively developed financial systems. Some recommendations have been suggested to promote digital penetration in Africa, as well as to improve the receptivity and flexibility of African financial systems.     

Assessment of information and communications technology maturity level

The use of information and communications technology (ICT) turned out to be a key factor in the process of the wider development of a country. It is therefore very useful to estimate ICT evolution by the means of an appropriate metric. Based on statistical data from 159 countries, the ICT maturity level index (IMLI) is proposed and estimated by using structural equation modelling (SEM). This index is a metric measuring the information society in a country and consists of three sub-indices which are access, use and skills. It is an improvement of the ICT development index, proposed by the ITU in 2009. The analysis divides the countries into two groups, the developed and the developing, due to major disparities in their statistical data. The criterion used to define the groups was the income, as expressed by the Gross National Income per capita. The impact of a number of influential parameters on the ICT maturity level is evaluated and it becomes obvious that there is a substantial difference in their impact between developed and developing countries. Finally, a procedure that allows the ranking of the countries, based on IMLI, is presented.     

Factors affecting ICT adoption among rural users: A case study of ICT Center in Iran

Rural ICT centers are the initiative of the third millennium and widen the accessibility horizons of information and Communication Technology among disadvantaged groups of societies, and play a significant role in rural development processes. Adoption of new technology in rural Iran has been the main challenge and focal point of all agricultural extension activities since the modernization era of the 1950s. Consequently the rapidly growing gap between urban and rural economy has reinforced the critical role of ICT in creating an equal society. Identifying the factors which foster adoption of ICT is among the important challenges of alleviating digital divide. ICT centers attract different groups within rural communities and create a forum for unprivileged rural settlers to learn about and to use computer and internet. This paper attempts to identify the factors influencing the adoption of ICT in rural Gharn Abad's ICT center of Golestan Province. The sample included 218 individuals, who were selected by stratified random sampling method. Survey method was used, and data was analyzed by correlation as well as multiple regression techniques. Based on the results, the existence of ICT center itself, with various funding sources, reinforced the adoption regardless of the users' economic status. At the same time, the other factors such as individual, social, the households' informative & communicative, as well as the innovation related factors were found influential. This case study could be used as a sample for planning, establishing, and developing the ICT centers in the other similar situations.     

国家中心城市的金融集聚对经济效率的影响研究

本文以八大国家中心城市为研究对象,基于区位熵和 Malmquist 指数测算其金融集聚和经济效率,运用系统GMM和面板回归实证检验其金融集聚与经济效率关系。结果表明：整体上金融集聚对全要素生产率、纯技术效率、规模效率和技术进步均有显著促进效应;各城市金融集聚均对规模效率有显著促进效应,对全要素生产率及其他分解指数的影响存在显著差异。得出以市场化为改革核心、加强金融供给侧改革、“脱虚向实”、推进创新驱动和扩大金融开放等建议。     

Do ICTs drive wealth inequality? Evidence from a dynamic panel analysis

Surprisingly, little is known about the cross-country effect of information and communication technology (ICT) on wealth inequality. At the same time, there is some tentative evidence suggesting that information and communication technology is positively correlated with income inequality. However, whether and how ICT affects wealth inequality is less explored, particularly because of the lack of reliable data on wealth inequality. This paper, therefore, fills this gap and contributes to this new literature by investigating the effect of ICT on wealth inequality in a sample of 45 developed and developing countries over the period 2000–2017. ICT is measured with six different indicators (including internet penetration, mobile penetration, ICT service exports, the ICT index, ICT quality, and ICT quantity), while wealth inequality is measured with three different indicators (comprising billionaire wealth to GDP, the Top 1% wealth share, and the Top 10% wealth share). The empirical analysis is based on the Generalised Method of Moments, and the results show that ICT increases wealth inequality. Furthermore, we show that democracy mitigates the increasing effect of ICT on wealth inequality. This result suggests that improving democracy in both developed and developing countries is an effective mechanism for mitigating the effects of ICT on wealth inequality. Therefore, we encourage efforts to implement democratic institutions that ensure respect for citizens' freedoms, greater democratic accountability, and executive constraints that allow for a more egalitarian distribution of wealth.     

Do R&D and ICT affect total factor productivity growth differently?

We analyze the effect of ICT and R&D on total factor productivity (TFP) growth across different industries in Sweden. R&D alone is significantly associated with contemporaneous TFP growth, thus exhibiting indirect effects. Although there is no significant short-run association between ICT and TFP, we find a positive association with a lag of seven to eight years. Thus, R&D affect TFP much faster than ICT-investments. We also divide ICT capital into hardware and software capital. To our knowledge, this distinction has not been made in any previous study analyzing TFP at the industry level. The results show that lagged hardware capital services growth is significantly associated with TFP growth. Hence, investments complementary to hardware are needed to reap the long-run TFP effects from reorganizing production.     

环境责任承担与企业绩效——理论与实证

在全球经济进入“绿色经济”的大背景下,近年来,生态环境已成为社会各界关注的一个重点问题,也是我国“十三五”规划所关注的重要论题之一。本文以上交所与深交所的上市公司2008～2014年的数据为基础,运用GMM模型,从理论层面阐述了环境责任对企业绩效产生的效应,实证探讨了二者间的关系。文章也创造性地探讨了两者之间的非线性关系,研究发现,承担环境责任对中国企业绩效存在显著的正效应,而且二者之间的非线性关系呈现出倒“U”型。     

Does the growth of mobile markets cause the demise of fixed networks? – Evidence from the European Union

The increasing usage of mobile communication and the declining demand for fixed line telephony in Europe make the analysis of substitutional effects between fixed and mobile networks a key aspect for future telecommunication regulation. Using a unique dataset which contains information on all 27 European Union members from 2003 to 2009, we analyze substitutability between fixed and mobile telecommunication services in Europe by applying dynamic panel data techniques. We find strong empirical evidence for substitution from fixed to cellular networks throughout Europe. In addition, the paper reveals resulting policy implications.     

Intraorganizational information and communication technology diffusion: Implications for industrial sellers and buyers

Information and communication technologies (ICTs) like CRM, ERP and Intranet are considered important for creating competitive advantage. Despite their rapid deployment rates, only a few studies mainly from the information technology (IT) and engineering literature have been devoted in uncovering the factors that influence the diffusion of new information technologies within an organization. Similarly, empirical studies regarding the impact of ICT diffusion on organizations are strikingly limited. In an attempt to fill this research void, the present study examines the implementation of ICT tools within marketing-related and non-marketing-related functions. By testing a number of hypotheses using structural equation modeling, the authors conclude that the antecedents and consequences of ICT diffusion in these functions vary. Their findings provide the foundation for a more thorough examination of both intraorganizational diffusion of ICT tools as well as their impact on organizations.     

What is the magnitude of fixed–mobile call substitution? Empirical evidence from 16 European countries

This paper investigates the degree of fixed–mobile call substitution (FMCS) within different European countries. We use quarterly data from 2004 to mid-2010 on 16 mainly Western European countries. By applying dynamic panel data techniques, we are able to estimate short- and long-run elasticities of the telecommunication usage prices on the fixed-line call demand. The own-price and cross-price elasticities found give strong empirical evidence for substitutional effects towards mobile services. In particular, the estimated cross-price elasticities of the mobile price on the fixed-line call demand are relatively large compared to other studies.     

ICT as a source of economic growth in the information age: Empirical evidence from the 1996-2005 period

This paper examines the hypothesis that ICT penetration has positive effects on economic growth. On theoretical grounds, this paper discusses three channels through which ICT penetration can affect growth: (i) fostering technology diffusion and innovation; (ii) enhancing the quality of decision-making by firms and households; and (iii) increasing demand and reducing production costs, which together raises the output level. This paper conducts three empirical exercises to provide a comprehensive documentation of the role of ICT as a source of growth in the 1996-2005 period. The first exercise shows that growth in 1996-2005 improved relative to the previous two decades and experienced a very significant structural change. The second exercise uses the traditional cross-country regression method to identify a strong association between ICT penetration and growth during 1996-2005, controlling for other potential growth drivers and country-fixed effects. The third exercise uses the system Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) for dynamic panel data analysis to tease out the causal link between ICT penetration and growth. This analysis also shows that, for the average country, the marginal effect of the penetration of internet users was larger than that of mobile phones, which in turn is larger than that of personal computers. The marginal effect of ICT penetration, however, lessens as the penetration increases. This paper points out several policy implications drawn from its analyses and findings.     

How advanced are Italian regions in terms of public e-services? The construction of a composite indicator to analyze patterns of innovation diffusion in the public sector

This paper applies an open and transparent methodology to construct a composite indicator for the analysis of the diffusion of ICT in the public sector and the development of public e-services across Italian regions. This methodology, based on OECD/EC-JRC Handbook and incorporating experts′ opinion into a Data Envelopment Analysis, will allow us to define a ranking of Italian regions in terms of ICT adoption and of e-service development. Data are obtained by merging four different surveys carried out by Between Co. (2010–2011) and Istat – Italy′s National Bureau of Statistics (2009). We add to extant empirical literature in three ways. First, we offer a comprehensive measurement of advances in digital government that is not circumscribed to a single domain (e.g. administrative procedures of public administrations) but is rather aimed to capture a wide spectrum of public e-services (e-government, e-education, Intelligent Transport Systems, e-health). Second, we tackle a major drawback of existing statistics and benchmarking studies which are largely based on the count of services provided online, by including more sophisticated indicators on the quality of services offered and on back office changes. The results – both in terms of scores and regional rankings – highlight the presence of different patterns of adoption and use of public e-services at the local level. Third, we offer a rich account of the extreme heterogeneity of public e-service development and of the underlying technological and organizational change at the sub-national level, and hence provide a basis for the differentiating policy measures across regions.     

经济货币化、信贷配置与经济增长——基于动态面板数据模型的GMM估计

金融与经济增长关系研究的理论文献较多,且随着经济计量技术的发展,学者们逐步从更广范 围和更深层次来实证检验二者的关系。本文基于内生经济增长理论,将金融因素纳入到改进 型Cobb-Douglas生产函数中,并充分考虑到研究的时限性问题,收集了69个国家1991～2013 年间的数据资料,利用动态面板数据模型GMM估计方法,以发达经济体与新兴市场和发展中 国家为横截面单元,以新的视角检验经济货币化、信贷配置与经济增长的动态效应,结果表 明经济货币化、信贷配置与经济增长之间存在动态关系,且对于不同经济体呈现的正负效应 及弹性并非具有一致性。