Accounting Returns Revisited: Evidence of their Usefulness in Estimating Economic Returns

Accounting information is used for measuring firm performance in various financial applications—a practice supported by empirical studies demonstrating the value relevance of accounting numbers, but disputed by theoretical papers arguing that a firm's accounting rate of return (ARR) serves poorly as a proxy for its internal rate of return (IRR). We derive a new model of the ARR–IRR relation, and describe how the conservatism of GAAP constrains a firm's IRR to fall in a range bounded by its historical growth rate and ARR. Using cross-sectional data, we demonstrate that economic returns can be estimated from accounting numbers for many firms. We link empirical results to underlying economic theory, and thus contribute to understanding why accounting information is value relevant.     

Economic and Accounting Rates of Return A Statistical Model

This paper develops a number of statistical procedures than can be used to determine whether a firm's ex post accounting rate of return (ARR) is likely to provide guidance as to the economic return the firm will earn over its remaining life. The paper argues that if a corporation's future process cash flows are generated by some form of stochastic process, then the probability density function induced by this can be used to assess whether the ARR provides a reasonable reflection of the economic return the corporation is likely to earn over its remaining life. Five large listed companies are used as case studies to illustrate the model's application.     

Corporate governance,institutions, markets,and social factors

We use a comprehensive set of country-level social and institutional measures to study the relationship between country-level factors and firm-level governance. We also examine the roles of the country’s financial development status and the firm’s external financing needs in influencing the firm’s governance framework. Using a sample of 43 countries and 3301 firms, we find that country-level factors explain a large part of the variation in firm-level governance across countries. We also find evidence that the relationship between country-level factors and firm-level mechanisms is best represented as a moderating relationship. The results also indicate the presence of a complementary relationship, albeit sometimes insignificant, between firm-level governance and all the country-level variables included in our study. When accounting for the effect of a country’s financial development status and a firm’s external financing needs, we find evidence of a positive relationship between firm-level governance and firm returns and value for firms with high financing needs which operate in countries with high financial development.     

Accounting and economic rates of return: Additional Australian evidence

The key issue addressed in my paper is whether accounting rate of return (ARR) performs as an effective monitoring surrogate for internal rate of return (IRR). Financial information derived from a sample of 44 Australian corporations between 1968 and 1990 was utilized to accomplish this objective. The Kelly-Tippett (1991) technique was employed to analyze the data set. Results confirm earlier work in the area in that the ARR was found to be an unreliable substitute for the IRR.     

Capital investment,internationalization, and firm performance: Evidence from Southeast Asian countries

This study asks whether firms that invest more have higher degrees of internationalization and whether firms with higher degrees of internationalization perform better than those with lower degrees of internationalization. Using a large panel sample that consists of non-financial firms in five countries in the Southeast Asia region during the period 1990–2014, I show that capital investment negatively affects the level of internationalization but has a positive effect on foreign sales growth. The negative effect of capital investment on internationalization levels is weaker for firms with higher degrees of internationalization. The level of internationalization is not associated with firm performance, measured as return on assets; however, there is some evidence for the positive relation between the level of internationalization and firm performance, measured as the stock return.     

Oil prices and accounting profits of oil and gas companies

This paper investigates the relationship between commodity prices of crude oil, capital structure, firm size and accounting measures of firm performance using a sample of oil and gas firms from 1990 to 2008. We employ estimates based on panel least squares, a fixed effects model and a random effects model. We also use generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators by Arellano and Bond (1991) and Blundell and Bond (1998, 2000). Our findings show that crude oil prices positively and significantly impact the performance of oil and gas firms in North America using accounting measures of performance. The recent financial crisis of 2007 and 2008 negatively influenced oil prices and the financial performance of oil and gas firms. On the other hand, the earlier global crises (Asian financial crisis and 9/11) did not have a significant impact on the return on equity of oil and gas companies. Our primary contribution to the literature is a comprehensive and econometric analysis of the relation between commodity prices and accounting measures of performance oil and gas companies.     

Accounting Rate of Return vs. Economic Rate of Return

The accounting rate of return (ARR) has traditionally been used as a surrogate for the economic rate of return (IRR) in evaluating the effectiveness of managements' capital investment decisions. Over the years, some question has been raised as to the validity of using the ARR as an approximation of the IRR. Several papers have recently come to grips with this question with varying degrees of success. This paper is intended to expose the conceptual differences between these rates of return, with the goal of clearly pointing out just how useful the ARR can be to management.     

Economic and Accounting (Book) Rates of Return: Application of a Statistical Model

Harcourt's (1965) classic paper has spawned a considerable literature dealing with the relationship between economic and accounting rates of return. Kay (1976), Ijiri (1979), Salamon (1982) and Kelly and Tippett (1991), for example, can be interpreted as extensions of Harcourt's seminal analysis, while Kay (1976), Salamon (1982, 1985) and Gordon and Hamer (1988) provide empirical evidence on the sustainability of basic propositions. The present paper's focus is on the latter area; we apply the statistical procedures laid down in Kelly and Tippett (1991) to about 200 British companies to assess the correspondence between the ex post accounting rate of return and the prospective economic return. The economic return is estimated using three cash flow definitions. For all three, the accounting rate of return is significantly lower than the economic return. Further tests show the economic return to be inversely related to the accounting rate of return, although the relationship is weak. In addition, ‘large’ firms tend to report lower accounting rates of return than ‘small’ firms, but again the relationship is weak.     

Corporate Governance and Expected Stock Returns: Evidence from Germany

Recent empirical work shows evidence for higher valuation of firms in countries with a better legal environment. We investigate whether differences in the quality of firm‐level corporate governance also help to explain firm performance in a cross‐section of companies within a single jurisdiction. Constructing a broad corporate governance rating (CGR) for German public firms, we document a positive relationship between governance practices and firm valuation. There is also evidence that expected stock returns are negatively correlated with firm‐level corporate governance, if dividend yields are used as proxies for the cost of capital. An investment strategy that bought high‐CGR firms and shorted low‐CGR firms earned abnormal returns of around 12% on an annual basis during the sample period.     

Market competition,earnings management,and persistence in accounting profitability around the world

We examine how cross-country differences in product, capital, and labor market competition, as well as earnings management affect mean reversion in accounting return on assets. Using a sample of 48,465 unique firms from 49 countries, we find that accounting returns mean revert faster in countries where there is more product and capital market competition, as predicted by economic theory. Country differences in labor market competition and earnings management are also related to mean reversion in accounting returns—but the relation varies with firm performance. Country labor competition increases mean reversion when unexpected returns are positive but slows it when unexpected returns are negative. Accounting returns in countries with higher earnings management mean revert more slowly for profitable firms and more rapidly for loss firms. Thus earnings management incentives to slow or speed up mean reversion in accounting returns are accentuated in countries where there is a high propensity for earnings management. Overall, these findings suggest that country factors explain mean reversion in accounting returns and are therefore relevant for firm valuation.     

Cross‐firm return predictability and accounting quality

We test the hypothesis that if poor accounting quality (AQ) is associated with poor investor understanding of firms’ revenue and cost structures, then poor AQ stocks likely respond more slowly than good AQ stocks to new non‐idiosyncratic information that affects both sets of firms. Consistent with this, results indicate that stock returns of good AQ firms significantly positively predict one‐month‐ahead stock returns to industry‐ and size‐matched poor AQ firms. In testing a delayed‐information‐processing mechanism behind the cross‐firm return predictability, we find that: (i) analyst earnings forecast revisions (FR) mimic the return patterns, as FR of good AQ firms significantly positively predict one‐month‐ahead FR of matched poor AQ firms; (ii) cross‐firm return predictability is concentrated in months with substantial news arrival, including months with Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate announcements, but not in no‐news months; (iii) cross‐firm return predictability is stronger when the good AQ predictor firms have a richer information environment than poor AQ firms as proxied by analyst following, institutional ownership, and the presence of a Big 4 auditor. Collectively, the results uncover a new relation between accounting quality and stock return dynamics.     

International cross-listings by Australian firms: A stochastic dominance analysis of equity returns

This paper examines the share return and risk exposure consequences of Australian companies deciding to cross-list on major international stock exchanges. Due to limited sample availability of cross-listing transactions by Australian companies and concerns regarding non-normality, we apply bootstrapping and stochastic dominance techniques to evaluate share return and return variance changes following cross-listings. The findings provide evidence that firm share returns decline following the undertaking of cross-listings, with an associated fall in the post-listing variance in share returns. Measures of the importance and ownership concentration of stockmarkets in destination countries are found to be correlated with post-listing share return outcomes, however, no evidence of superior return or risk reduction benefits from firms cross-listing in countries providing stronger investor protection or higher accounting reporting and disclosure requirements is identified.     

Accounting control systems and business strategy: An empirical analysis

Accounting theoreticians have argued that control systems should be modified in accordance with the business strategy of a firm. This study tests this hypothesis by examining differences in accounting control system attributes between two groups of firms following distinctly different strategies. Interview data and questionnaire data are used to provide evidence of the ways in which firms align their control systems and strategy. In addition, prelimenary evidence is discussed which suggests a relationship between accounting control systems, business strategy and firm performance.     

Real Options,Volatility, and Stock Returns

We provide evidence that the positive relation between firm‐level stock returns and firm‐level return volatility is due to firms’ real options. Consistent with real option theory, we find that the positive volatility‐return relation is much stronger for firms with more real options and that the sensitivity of firm value to changes in volatility declines significantly after firms exercise their real options. We reconcile the evidence at the aggregate and firm levels by showing that the negative relation at the aggregate level may be due to aggregate market conditions that simultaneously affect both market returns and return volatility.     

THE RELATION BETWEEN RETURNS,OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE,AND MARKET VALUE

Numerous empirical studies have documented the small firm effect of higher risk-adjusted returns for small firms in contrast to large firms. The explanation for such a phenomenon remains incomplete. This research examines the relationship among ownership structure, size, and returns under the hypothesis that firms with diffuse ownership (manager controlled) have higher returns to compensate for the risk inherent in the agency relationship. This research adds a dimension to the explanation of the small firm effect, which is well-founded in economic theory but has not been tested. The results indicate no significant relationship between ownership and return.     

Extent of managerial IT use,learning routines,and firm performance: A structural equation modeling of their relationship

Organizations increasingly rely on information technology (IT) to improve performance. Yet, there is debate about the pay-off of the IT revolution, and empirical evidence suggests that investments in IT do not guarantee enhanced performance. Drawing from accounting, marketing, management and information technology literature, this study uses structural equation modeling to assess the extent to which managerial use of IT is intertwined with control issues including learning routines (internal and external), product quality, cost improvement, customer satisfaction and firm profitability. The conceptual framework builds on knowledge- and resource-based views and return on quality perspectives. The results indicate support for the theoretical framework. Extent of managerial IT use influences internal and external learning routines that influence quality and cost improvement. Quality improvement significantly impacts customer satisfaction and cost improvement that significantly impact firm profitability. The non-hypothesized paths are not significant, indicating that learning routines, quality improvement, cost improvement and customer satisfaction are intervening variables between extent of managerial IT use and firm profitability. Further, the sample is split into two industry subgroups, durable and nondurable goods subgroups, and the two-group analysis reveals that industry moderates the relationship among the variables under study. The effects are in general more pronounced for durable goods firms.     

A Direct Test of Roll's Conjecture on the Firm Size Effect

Empirical research indicates that small firms earn higher average rates of return than large firms, even after accounting for beta risk. Roll conjectured that the small firm effect might be attributed to improper estimation of security betas. The evidence shows that while the direction of the bias in beta estimation is consistent with Roll's conjecture, the magnitude of the bias appears to be too small to explain the firm size effect.     

The Roles of Performance Measures and Monitoring in Annual Governance Decisions in Entrepreneurial Firms

This paper analyzes annual corporate governance decisions at firms making initial public offerings (IPOs) of common stock between 1996 and 1999. Our objective is to examine relations between firms' corporate governance decisions and the informativeness of available measures of managerial performance. We consider financial measures such as earnings and stock return, as well as direct monitoring. We collect a sample of IPO firms from the manufacturing, Internet, and technology (non-Internet) industries, and examine how the use of various performance measures in annual compensation grants and turnover decisions varies with the information environment of the firm and with the extent of venture capital influence. Consistent with prior research that finds earnings are of limited usefulness in firm valuation for Internet firms, we find Internet firms place less importance on earnings and greater importance on stock returns in determining compensation grants than do non-Internet firms. We also find that compensation grants of firms with little or no venture capital influence display significantly stronger association with accounting and stock performance measures than those of firms with more intense monitoring by venture capitalists. This result is consistent with direct monitoring and the use of explicit performance measures acting as substitute governance mechanisms.     

The relations among competition, delegation, management accounting systems change and performance: A path model

This paper is concerned with an empirical investigation into the relations among competition, delegation, management accounting and control systems (MACS) change and organizational performance. It follows a standard contingency type path modeling to propose that intensity of competition causes firms to change their MACS and that this change enhances their performance. Delegation of authority is implicated in the model as competition encourages delegation, and this in turn causes the change in MACS, as well as enhancing performance directly. The results from a sample of Australian strategic business units indicate that (1) increased competition results in improved organizational performance indirectly through a greater number of changes in MACS, and (2) increased delegation of authority to lower level management leads to higher organizational performance. These results contribute to the management accounting change literature by providing empirical evidence that the relationship between competition and organizational performance is mediated by a decentralized organizational form and changes in MACS of the firm.     

The evolution of the application of capital budgeting techniques in enterprises

This study examines the evolution of the application of capital budgeting techniques. Previous studies mostly used cross-sectional inquiries to understand the capital budgeting practices of firms. Only a few researchers have undertaken longitudinal studies to generalise the findings of the individual cross-sectional studies to the wider population and to identify the emerging trends in the use of capital budgeting techniques (CBTs). This longitudinal study surveys 83 studies of capital budgeting practices across firms in India, South Africa, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States of America (USA) for the period from 1966 to 2016. The findings show that six capital budgeting techniques, namely, the net present value (NPV), the internal rate of return (IRR), the payback period (PBP), the accounting rate of return (ARR), the return on investment (ROI) and the real option valuation (ROV), are the most popular methods for evaluating capital investments. Of these techniques, the ROV is the least used, and a general lack of familiarity with this technique and its complexity are the most commonly cited reasons for not using it. Another method that is used less than the first four techniques is the ROI. However, this technique is of growing significance and is mainly used in the UK, followed by the USA, South Africa, and India. Firms in the USA and UK have increased their use of the IRR as a primary method for evaluating capital projects and have retained the PBP as an ancillary technique to strengthen the available information when evaluating capital projects. Firms in India and South Africa are increasingly excluding both the PBP and ARR methods and are increasingly using the NPV when evaluating capital investments. Although this development is in line with the theory, it limits the scope of the available information when evaluating capital projects.