Hypothesis on the genesis of homo intelligent

By linking recent research findings from palaeoanthropology and sociobiology with advanced information science, and by use of historical analogy, a hypothesis for the genesis of ‘new man’—homo Intelligens—is derived. Key elements are: human evolution; the fifth and sixth generation computers, the development of new communications media and advanced robotics; and gene—culture coevolution. From this hypothesis the nature of the human society of homo Intelligens is postulated as a global citizens community—a synergetic society of mutual aid with no need for states and armed forces, and with a bio-ecological economic system based on restrained consumption, reutilization of resources, and synergy between production and utilization.     

Gendered society, gendered futures research

New fields of research, new approaches and branches of science enrich the scientific world-view and scientific toolbox. Below I employ concepts developed for a newcomer to the domain of science, feminist and women's research, in the field of futures research. The distinction between biological sex and sociocultural gender is a useful conceptual device. The sociocultural woman's or man's role is distinguished from being a biological woman or man. With the help of this distinction feminists have shown that, especially in science, there is a dominant male mode of thinking, which they call ‘the male bias'. The male bias in Western futures research gets its extreme expression in the forecasting approach. There are, though, early efforts to develop ‘female futures research' from practical work with women's futures to theoretical and utopian considerations. The female approach is but an embryo and should be developed further. To begin is to understand the dilemma.     

3D,SF and the future

This article assesses the use of ‘science fiction’ (SF) in visioning or prototyping the potential economic and social consequences of so-called 3D printing. What is becoming clear to many commentators as well as science fiction writers is how rapid prototyping, or 3D printing more generally, could permit many final objects to be made near to or even by consumers on just-in-time ‘printing’ machines. This revolution in making would have many implications for the economy-and-society in the future by seriously augmenting, or possibly replacing, current systems of manufactured production, long-distance transportation and consumption. These 3D technologies have featured in SF works, including Neal Stephenson's The Diamond Age, Ian McDonald's Brasyl, Charles Stross's Rule 34 and Cory Doctorow's Makers. The article reports on current research seeking to understand the implications of what may be a major new sociotechnical system in the making. Some creative uses of SF are presented in a professional workshop setting. As well the article documents the use of SF as a methodological prototype in forecasting alternative scenarios of the future. SF prototyping could be a powerful tool in the social science repertoire when put into action in forecasting possible technology and business futures.     

Science and policy in designing complex futures

Many complex systems scientists are motivated by making changes to socio-technical systems. Change also motivates policy makers. Thus, both aspire to design new systems and trajectories through time. Science has always been used to forecast the implications of policy. Traditional science predicts system states at precise points in time. Usually point predictions are impossible in the science of complex systems. Most scientists cannot perform in vivo experiments on complex socio-technical systems. They have neither the mandate nor the budget. Massive advances in ICT enable simulation as a powerful new in silico experimental methodology. However, complex systems scientists are unable to collect the huge databases necessary to plan and manage heterogeneous multilevel socio-technical systems—these data are collected by public and private agencies according to perceived policy needs. Most implemented policies are experiments, but the outcome of policy is rarely monitored from a scientific research perspective. To test in silico forecasts against in vivo observation requires data owned by policy makers, requiring completely new data collection protocols that have to be aligned with policy makers. Complex systems scientists must make an obvious added-value contribution to policy, making explicit their role as designers with their science fitting into the policy-driven process of designing, planning, managing and controlling real complex socio-technical systems. Remaining in the loop is essential for policy makers to maintain control over policy objectives as they co-evolve towards the delivered design solution and its implementation.     

Population policy,its scope and limits

Balancing population and food supplies is a problem as old as man, but the population problem today has three new facets. Supplies of food are spread unevenly over the globe without relation to population; medical science brings difficulties with its success in prolonging life and reducing infant mortality but also provides the means of controlling conception. Replacing the conventional picture of a dual world based on the level of development, the author presents here a four-celled matrix according to the ratio of resources to population. The envisaged population stabilising policies extend far beyond the field of family planning and may include radical changes in population mobility and food rationing in the next decade.     

Cities of the imagination: Science fiction, urban space, and community engagement in urban planning

Stories, dreams, histories and myths, Michel de Certeau argues, connect people to particular places and makes place concrete and inhabitable. These narratives generate an imaginary, poetic geography that haunts the abstract city of street maps and development plans, and makes it socially meaningful. This paper is concerned with one particular kind of story-telling - science fiction - and its relationship with the city, urban planning, and questions of community engagement. The paper argues that the ‘cities of the imagination’ generated by science fiction and other forms of narrative provide a powerful means of understanding, communicating and enriching the connections to place in urban communities. Moreover, science fiction is often characterised by its ability to explore the future of cities. This gives the genre a fascinating and potentially useful resonance with urban planning as a discourse and set of practices; and, in particular, strategies for engaging communities in the design process and, thus, designing for future social sustainability. These ideas will be tested through a reading of near-future urban spatiality in the cyberpunk stories of William Gibson. The theorisation of the relationship between urban space and narrative in the work of de Certeau and other theorists will be used to help frame this discussion.     

Long waves,inventions, and innovations

It is argued that aggregate R and D and patenting activity, while generally less volatile than short term economic activity, is more closely related to the latter in the longer term. Second, ‘fundamental’ or ‘basic’ inventions exhibit a clustering behaviour, although there appears to be no clear-cut relationship with the overall level of economic activity. Third, we find no support for Mensch's argument that lead times between invention and innovation contracted in the 1930s. Fourth, we find some evidence for a bunching of innovations in the 1930s, but this does not appear due to depression-induced acceleration. Fifth, in the particular case of plastics, where the 1930s clustering is particularly clear, the forces at work were primarily related to ‘science push’ and the particular requirements of the German economy.     

Social media capital: Conceptualizing the nature,acquisition, and expenditure of social media-based organizational resources

The near-universal organizational participation in social media is predicated on the belief there are some tangible or intangible new resources to be had through tweeting, pinning, posting, friending, and sharing. We argue the linchpin of any payoff from engagement in social media is a special form of social capital we refer to as social media capital, and offer a conceptual framework for understanding its nature, acquisition, and expenditure. This paper contributes to existing literature by elaborating a new type of organizational resource and then synthesizing and extending research on the processes through which organizations can translate social media efforts into meaningful organizational outcomes. Understanding this causal chain is critical not only for measuring the return on investment from social media use but also for developing accounting information systems that are both adaptable to social resources and better able to exploit the data analytic and forecasting capabilities of real-time social media data.     

Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior,agency costs and ownership structure

This paper integrates elements from the theory of agency, the theory of property rights and the theory of finance to develop a theory of the ownership structure of the firm. We define the concept of agency costs, show its relationship to the ‘separation and control’ issue, investigate the nature of the agency costs generated by the existence of debt and outside equity, demonstrate who bears these costs and why, and investigate the Pareto optimality of their existence. We also provide a new definition of the firm, and show how our analysis of the factors influencing the creation and issuance of debt and equity claims is a special case of the supply side of the completeness of markets problem.The directors of such [joint-stock] companies, however, being the managers rather of other people's money than of their own, it cannot well be expected, that they should watch over it with the same anxious vigilance with which the partners in a private copartnery frequently watch over their own. Like the stewards of a rich man, they are apt to consider attention to small matters as not for their master's honour, and very easily give themselves a dispensation from having it. Negligence and profusion, therefore, must always prevail, more or less, in the management of the affairs of such a company.Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations, 1776, Cannan Edition(Modern Library, New York, 1937) p. 700.     

A vision of the future of science: reintegrating the study of humans and the rest of nature

This paper presents a vision of a desired future of science. In this vision, the future will bring the reintegration of the study of humans and the rest of nature. The barriers between the traditional disciplines will dissolve and a true ‘consilience’ of all the sciences and humanities will occur. This consilient transdisciplinary science will emerge from a rebalancing of analysis and synthesis, a recognition of the central role of envisioning in science, a pragmatic philosophy built on complex systems theory and modeling, a multiscale approach, and a consistent theory of cultural and biological co-evolution. It will allow us to build a world that is both sustainable and desirable and that recognizes our fundamental partnership with the rest of nature. It is a world that we must first imagine in order to achieve.     

Our posthuman futures and education: Homo Zappiens,Cyborgs, and the New Adam

This paper is a philosophical reflection on the historical development of ideas about the nature of human beings and what this development may mean for the future of and in education. In terms of the causal layered analysis developed by Sohail Inayatullah, it is an investigation on the levels of worldviews and archetypes. Ideas of human nature describe a trajectory from supranature (theological and mystical) via nature (philosophical and mechanical) to subnature (digital). With the development of psychological science about a century ago, so called psycho-utopian visions of a better society arose, based on the transformation of the human mind. Such visions seem today to have been replaced by digital utopias, based on the development of superfast computers and the enhancement of brain capacity through neural implants. The latter is a prominent feature of so called transhumanism. The transhumanist ideas of Ray Kurzweil are briefly presented and contrasted with traditional religious and spiritual ideas. Of special interest in this context is Rudolf Steiner's philosophical–spiritual understanding of human being and development, which underpins Steiner Waldorf education. There is an existential choice confronting us today: whether to see humans as essentially spiritual beings, or as highly complex bio-computers. This choice has obvious ramifications for education as well as for the future of human being in general.     

Futures dreaming outside and on the margins of the western world

In this article, we challenge the hegemony of western science fiction, arguing that western science fiction is particular even as it claims universality. Its view remains based on ideas of the future as forward time. In contrast, in non-western science fiction the future is seen outside linear terms: as cyclical or spiral, or in terms of ancestors. In addition, western science fiction has focused on the good society as created by technological progress, while non-western science fiction and futures thinking has focused on the fantastic, on the spiritual, on the realization of eupsychia—the perfect self.However, most theorists assert that the non-west has no science fiction, ignoring Asian and Chinese science fiction history, and western science fiction continues to ‘other’ the non-west as well as those on the margins of the west (African–American woman, for example).Nonetheless, while most western science fiction remains trapped in binary opposites—alien/non-alien; masculine/feminine; insider/outsider—writers from the west’s margins are creating texts that contradict tradition and modernity, seeking new ways to transcend difference. Given that the imagination of the future creates the reality of tomorrow, creating new science fictions is not just an issue of textual critique but of opening up possibilities for all our futures.

Science fiction has always been nearly all white, just as until recently, it’s been nearly all male

(Butler as quoted in [1]).

Science fiction has long treated people who might or might not exist—extra-terrestrials. Unfortunately, however, many of the same science fiction writers who started us thinking about the possibility of extra-terrestrial life did nothing to make us think about here-at home variation—women, blacks, Indians, Asians, Hispanics, etc [1].

Is all science fiction western? Is there non-western science fiction? If so, what is its nature? Does it follow the form and content of western science fiction, or is it rendered different by its own local civilizational historical processes and considerations? Has western science fiction moulded the development of the science fiction of the ‘other’, including feminist science fiction, in such a way that anything coming from outside the west is a mere imitation of the real thing? Perhaps non-western science fiction is a contradiction in terms. Or is there authentic non-western fiction which offers alternative visions of the future, of the ‘other’?     

经济学中关于“人性假定”的理论综述——基于原子论和混沌论视角

经济学是以社会经济活动中的人作为研究的出发点和归宿的,因此对人的基本假设成了经济学理论最核心的基础。按照对于人的假定的视角不同,本文从原子论和混沌论两个视角分别对人的假定理论进行归纳和整理,在原子论视角中以斯密的＂经济人＂为核心,结合后来新古典经济学家的补充和修正还吸收了西蒙的有限理性人观点及行为经济学对＂经济人＂的修订;在混沌论视角中以社会人和制度人两条主线进行分析阐述。最后折中了两大分支的假定,提出了＂网络经济人＂假定。     

Limited imagination: Depictions of computers in science fiction film

Are speculations about the future ever truly inventive, or are they overly limited by today's reality? Many scholars suggest the latter, and have so for millennia. If this is true, speculations about the future in science fiction film should be closely constrained by today's reality, and truly novel and accurate visions of the future in science fiction must be rare. This paper presents a comparison of how computer technologies have been depicted in popular science fiction films with actual computer technologies that existed when the films were made. The investigation included charting the occurrence of 11 trends in real-world computer technologies and types of computer interaction (e.g., mainframe computers, textual and vector graphic-based interfaces, keyboard and mice) in 10 popular science fiction films spanning four decades (e.g., 2001: A Space Odyssey, Blade Runner, and Minority Report). The investigation revealed that depictions of computers in science fiction films mirror, for the most part, real world trends in computer technology development. The article concludes with a brief discussion of some implications of this finding.     

World trade patterns,economic disturbances,and exchange-rate management

This paper construct and analyzes a three-country stochastic model of world trade. the objectives of this paper are to investigate the propagation of economic disturbances worldwide and to analyze the nature of optimal exchange-rate management on the part of a single country faced with monetary and real disturbances accurring in all its trade patterns. The paper analyzes the roles of bilateral trade patterns, the type of underlying stochastic disturbances i.e. monetary vs real and transsitory vs permanent and of the optimality criterion, in determining the optimal exchange-rate regime.     

Straddling between paradigms: A naturalistic philosophical case study on interpretive research in management accounting

This paper analyses interpretive research in management accounting from the perspective of naturalistic philosophy of science. We focus on the relation of interpretive research to the subjective/objective dichotomy appearing in the methodological literature of the social sciences. In management accounting research, it is often routinely assumed that interpretive studies, following the reasoning by Burrell and Morgan [Burrell, G., & Morgan. G. (1979). Sociological paradigms and organisational analysis. London: Heinemann], are based on subjectivism only. The major purpose of this paper is to give flesh to the existing debates around the nature of interpretive research with the help of in depth analysis of one example of such research in management accounting. Since abstract and general philosophical arguments are often used merely to cloud more relevant case specific issues concerning the focus of explanation and the nature of empirical evidence offered, our analysis aims at providing conceptual tools for articulating with greater precision what is being asserted in a given study. The specific target of the examination is the interpretive study by Dent [Dent, J. F. (1991). Accounting and organisational cultures: A field study of the emergence of a new organisational reality. Accounting, Organisations and Society, 16, 693–703], which is one of the highly appreciated and extensively quoted pieces of research picked from the interpretive management accounting literature. Our analysis indicates that though there certainly are, and needs to be, unique subjectivist features in interpretive studies as compared to more ‘objectivist’ approaches, there are also important similarities, and that the view of sociological paradigms as necessarily mutually exclusive does not hold water. Hence interpretive research straddles between paradigms. As we argue that interpretive studies, in addition to including subjectivist elements, also encompass objectivist features, we invert the typical social theory critique of ‘scientific’ (management) accounting research that it cannot be an objective ‘mirror of reality’ by claiming that interpretive studies cannot be exclusively subjectivist and still they remain theoretically relevant. Our philosophically tuned analysis explicates how concepts from different paradigms, such as interpretations, understanding meanings, and causality, can successfully co-exist and co-operate within a single study.     

关于经济学科学性质的思考

关于经济学科学性质的争论由来已久,以科学的狭义概念为标准,经济学既有科学的性质,又有非科学的一面。认识经济学的科学性质,对我们正确理解经济学有重要意义。本文在分析经济学科学性质观点的基础上,对经济学的科学性质和非科学表现进行了分析。     

Blackfoot physics and European minds

Western science and ‘European consciousness’ is contrasted with that of Indigenous and traditional peoples. The metaphysics of the Blackfoot of North America and this vision of an animate world is examined. It is argued that something similar existed in Europe of the early middle ages but that the secularization of space, time and matter paved the way for the development of science. A new science may be possible which combines the current power of abstraction and analysis with an ‘impersonal subjectivity’.     

Extending foresight: The case for and nature of Foresight 2.0

This a programmatic paper with all of the frustrations thereof [1]. We point beyond the well-tilled ground of foresight as commonly practiced (called Foresight 1.0) to an emerging understanding of the work and character of foresight (called Foresight 2.0). By definition, as of today, this new territory is not well mapped, much less carefully worked-over. The question that drives this commitment to Foresight 2.0 was the heart of the 2007 Strathclyde Organizational Foresight Conference—Learning the Future Faster: “Can foresight as commonly practiced enable us to learn the future fast enough to meet and deal with the unique strategic challenges of the 21st Century?” The view taken is that Foresight 1.0 cannot meet this challenge; that it leads to small victories and major disasters. An explanation is offered: Foresight 1.0 was developed, and is still largely practiced, with the eyes and mind of management, whereas sustained success in the unique conditions of the 21st Century requires Foresight 2.0—seeing, thinking and acting with the eyes and mind of Leadership. This distinction is explained. Evidence is offered that futures research and foresight are slowly moving towards this new practice. The hope is expressed that, if we grasp the need for it, the nature of it and have explicit mental maps of the journey to it, we who are professional foresight researchers and practitioners will move faster and more effectively to develop Foresight 2.0. Several steps towards this end are outlined.     

The hegemony of the physical sciences: an exploration in complexity thinking

Traditionally the natural sciences, particularly physics, have been regarded as the Gatekeepers of Truth. As such the legitimacy of others forms of knowledge have been called into question, particularly those methods that characterise the ‘softer’ sciences, and even the arts. This paper begins with an extended discussion concerning the main features of a complex system, and the nature of the boundaries that emerge within such systems. Subsequent to this discussion, and by assuming that the Universe at some level can be well-described as a complex system, the paper explores the notion of ontology, or existence, from a complex systems perspective. It is argued that none of the traditional objects of science, or any objects from any discipline, formal or not, can be said to be real in any absolute sense although a substantial realism may be temporarily associated with them. The limitations of the natural sciences is discussed as well as the deep connection between the ‘hard’ and the ‘soft’ sciences. As a result of this complex systems analysis, an evolutionary philosophy referred to as quasi-‘critical pluralism’ is outlined, which is more sensitive to the demands of complexity than contemporary reductionistic approaches.